bluewave

Maybe a problem with the solar radiation shield at Newark since the lows are in line with Harrison but diverge once the sun comes up?

You are ahead of the game. Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ RIVER EDGE 0.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ VERONA TWP 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ LIVINGSTON TWP 2.0 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ WAYNE TWP 2.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NY FLORAL PARK 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 0.00 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT WESTPORT 2.5 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NY SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT TRUMBULL 1.2 S CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT BRIDGEPORT 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ MAPLEWOOD TWP 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NY STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT MADISON CENTER 4.1 N CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 0.00

Driest start to July at Farmingdale with just .01 since the records began in 2000. The only good news is that we haven’t had any 90° days this month to dry things out further. I can remember July 99 having the brownest lawns with almost no rain and frequent 90s and several 100° days. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Jul 12 Missing Count 1 2022-07-12 0.01 0 2 2018-07-12 0.11 0 3 2000-07-12 0.16 0 4 2008-07-12 0.17 0 5 2015-07-12 0.28 1 6 2012-07-12 0.30 0 7 2002-07-12 0.43 0 8 2019-07-12 0.49 0 9 2011-07-12 0.53 0 10 2003-07-12 0.54 0 11 2013-07-12 0.65 0 12 2017-07-12 0.69 0 13 2014-07-12 1.16 0 14 2001-07-12 1.17 0 15 2010-07-12 1.21 0 16 2007-07-12 1.50 0 17 2004-07-12 1.54 0 18 2020-07-12 1.76 0 19 2005-07-12 2.01 0 20 2016-07-12 2.22 0 21 2021-07-12 2.70 0 22 2006-07-12 2.93 0 23 2009-07-12 2.94 0 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Daily Data For a Month July 2022 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 84 67 75.5 1.8 0 11 0.00 M M 2 86 73 79.5 5.6 0 15 T M M 3 86 69 77.5 3.4 0 13 0.00 M M 4 83 63 73.0 -1.3 0 8 0.00 M M 5 82 68 75.0 0.6 0 10 0.01 M M 6 86 71 78.5 3.9 0 14 0.00 M M 7 80 67 73.5 -1.3 0 9 0.00 M M 8 81 64 72.5 -2.4 0 8 T M M 9 86 68 77.0 2.0 0 12 0.00 M M 10 82 65 73.5 -1.7 0 9 0.00 M M 11 81 63 72.0 -3.3 0 7 0.00 M M 12 83 69 76.0 0.6 0 11 0.00 M M

Yeah, already gusting close to 30 mph on the South Shore as the sea breeze cranks up. Wantagh N/A 77 70 78 S14G28

Big Ambrose Jet day as the best heat sets up over NJ and interior SE NY again. Much cooler near the South Shore with wind gusts to 35mph. So plenty of blowing sand and dangerous rip currents at the beach today.

While the rate of extent loss has slowed since 2007-2012, the multiyear ice levels continue to run near all-time lows. So the 2007-2012 era shifted the ice to a much thinner state. It’s easier for the winds to push the mostly first year ice around and cause big yearly extent variations like 2012-2013 and 2020-2021. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/with-thick-ice-gone-arctic-sea-ice-changes-more-slowly The Arctic Ocean's sea ice blanket has already lost most of its old ice and two-thirds of its thickness. The younger ice is thinning more slowly and variably. The Arctic Ocean's blanket of sea ice has changed since 1958 from predominantly older, thicker ice to mostly younger, thinner ice, according to new research published by NASA scientist Ron Kwok of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. With so little thick, old ice left, the rate of decrease in ice thickness has slowed. New ice grows faster but is more vulnerable to weather and wind, so ice thickness is now more variable, rather than dominated by the effect of global warming. Working from a combination of satellite records and declassified submarine sonar data, NASA scientists have constructed a 60-year record of Arctic sea ice thickness. Right now, Arctic sea ice is the youngest and thinnest its been since we started keeping records. More than 70 percent of Arctic sea ice is now seasonal, which means it grows in the winter and melts in the summer, but doesn't last from year to year. This seasonal ice melts faster and breaks up easier, making it much more susceptible to wind and atmospheric conditions. Kwok's research, published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters, combined decades of declassified U.S. Navy submarine measurements with more recent data from four satellites to create the 60-year record of changes in Arctic sea ice thickness. He found that since 1958, Arctic ice cover has lost about two-thirds of its thickness, as averaged across the Arctic at the end of summer. Older ice has shrunk in area by almost 800,000 square miles (more than 2 million square kilometers). Today, 70 percent of the ice cover consists of ice that forms and melts within a single year, which scientists call seasonal ice. Sea ice of any age is frozen ocean water. However, as sea ice survives through several melt seasons, its characteristics change. Multiyear ice is thicker, stronger and rougher than seasonal ice. It is much less salty than seasonal ice; Arctic explorers used it as drinking water. Satellite sensors observe enough of these differences that scientists can use spaceborne data to distinguish between the two types of ice. Thinner, weaker seasonal ice is innately more vulnerable to weather than thick, multiyear ice. It can be pushed around more easily by wind, as happened in the summer of 2013. During that time, prevailing winds piled up the ice cover against coastlines, which made the ice cover thicker for months. The ice's vulnerability may also be demonstrated by the increased variation in Arctic sea ice thickness and extent from year to year over the last decade. In the past, sea ice rarely melted in the Arctic Ocean. Each year, some multiyear ice flowed out of the ocean into the East Greenland Sea and melted there, and some ice grew thick enough to survive the melt season and become multiyear ice. As air temperatures in the polar regions have warmed in recent decades, however, large amounts of multiyear ice now melt within the Arctic Ocean itself. Far less seasonal ice now thickens enough over the winter to survive the summer. As a result, not only is there less ice overall, but the proportions of multiyear ice to seasonal ice have also changed in favor of the young ice. Seasonal ice now grows to a depth of about six feet (two meters) in winter, and most of it melts in summer. That basic pattern is likely to continue, Kwok said. "The thickness and coverage in the Arctic are now dominated by the growth, melting and deformation of seasonal ice." The increase in seasonal ice also means record-breaking changes in ice cover such as those of the 1990s and 2000s are likely to be less common, Kwok noted. In fact, there has not been a new record sea ice minimum since 2012, despite years of warm weather in the Arctic. "We've lost so much of the thick ice that changes in thickness are going to be slower due to the different behavior of this ice type," Kwok said. Kwok used data from U.S. Navy submarine sonars from 1958 to 2000; satellite altimeters on NASA's ICESat and the European CryoSat-2, which span from 2003 to 2018; and scatterometer measurements from NASA's QuikSCAT and the European ASCAT from 1999 to 2017.

The slower melting over the last few weeks caused the model to come in a little higher at 4.68 million sq km for the September average extent.

I can still remember the old days when the Central Park thermometer was in the open at the castle and not in the shade like today under the trees. The open part of Central Park where the equipment was in the 70s was warmer than LGA at the time. I got a laugh from this old article in 1977 saying the NWS didn’t want to substitute the cooler LGA readings during the summer. If we had the Central Park ASOS on the Great Lawn today, it would be warmer than LGA but cooler than EWR. https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

Blocking is always the wild card. The winter of 20-21 was the first in this multi-year event. We got 3 winter months that the blocking overpowered the La Niña influence. Even though it was a snowy winter, the unusually south based block kept us warmer than average. Last winter began with one of the most extreme La Niña Decembers with the record low -PNA. January had a dramatic La Niña reversal with the NE PAC block dominating. Then back to La Niña in February. So a one month wonder winter. It will be interesting to see what influence becomes dominant on a month to month basis this coming winter.

I think it’s mostly just being curious about where the pattern is headed at any given time. This is the first era when longer range forecasting has become possible. I can remember the how 70s weather models only went out a few days . So the forecast for the next day was often incorrect especially with winter storms. With the rapid warming of our climate, the patterns are slanted to much warmer. So any period when the record heat is missing our area like this summer so far is noteworthy. Just look at how warm our summers have become since the early 90s. We are coming off 4 warmer summers in a row from 2018 to 2021. Numerous heat and humidity records have been set since 2018. The only other 4 year warm streaks were 2010 to 2013 and 2005 to 2008. The 5th summers had cooler temperatures in 2009 and near normal in 2014. Our last summer with near average temperatures was back in 2017. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 Near normal and cool years bolded Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 2021….+1.1….+1.2 2020…+2.6….+2.9 2019…+1.5…..+1.8 2018…+1.7……+1.8 2017…..+0.2….0.0 2016….+2.5….+2.5 2015….+1.4…..+0.8 2014…..-0.1…..-0.1 2013….+1.2…..+1.3 2012…..+1.7…..+1.7 2011…..+2.2…..+1.8 2010….+3.9…..+3.4 2009….-0.6…..-0.6 2008….+1.2……+1.4 2007…..+0.3…..+0.6 2006…..+1.7……+1.6 2005…..+2.6…..+3.3 2004…..-0.3….-0.6 2003…+0.4….+0.4 2002…..+1.6….+2.3 2001…..+0.7…..+0.6 2000…..-1.2…..-1.3 1999…..+2.7…..+2.9 1998….+0.7…..+0.7 1997….-0.3……-0.8 1996…..-0.6….-0.4 1995….+1.4…..+1.8 1994….+1.5…..+1.8 1993….+1.4…..+1.3 1992….-2.0…..-2.3 1991…..+1.8…..+1.7

Impressive battle between the La Niña ridge in the Plains and the block in Northern Canada. EPS extreme heat 15 day forecast Summer 2022 so far

The blocking up near Baffin Island continues to the wild card. The latest EPS is correcting stronger with block at 240 hours from a few days ago. So the La Niña SE Ridge/WAR can’t really lock in like it typically does during a La Niña summer. New run stronger Baffin Island block Old run stronger SE Ridge/WAR

May was the last month that we had a strong La Niña pattern in our area. Impressive blocking emerged in early June which resulted in the La Niña ridge getting squashed down toward Texas. July is starting out with a continuation of the blocking dueling with the La Niña ridge to our SW. So the major 95°+ heat has been occurring in brief 1-2 day intervals. The blocking would have to weaken for more extended major 95°+heat. So our local weather for the rest of the summer will come down to whether the blocking or the La Niña wins out.

Late July will come down to how much influence the La Nina vs the block in Northern Canada has. The EPS and GEFS are defaulting to typical La Nina climatology of a strong WAR/SE Ridge. The GEPS has more blocking so the WAR/SE Ridge is flatter. The degree of blocking will determine whether we get 1-2 days of 95°+ heat at a time like this week or something more extended. Typical July La Niña pattern

The typical July La Niña patten for us is is a strong WAR/SE Ridge. But the record blocking over Northern Canada is competing with the La Niña influence. So the storms get suppressed to our south. The EPS looks like more of the same over the next 10 days.

The Euro has upper 90s near Newark Tuesday. You can see the low 90s extending to Central Park on the Euro forecast below.

Only nuisance dry patterns here since that 2002 drought ended. It peaked in April that year and the drought feedback got us close to 100°. Luckily, we haven’t been that dry in 20 years. Monthly Data for April 2002 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 98 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 97 NJ CRANFORD COOP 97 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 97

Parts of NJ were added to the lowest level of D0 this week. That mostly means browning lawns. The last time we made it to level 2 was back in 2016. So most of the time we end up getting a deluge after a few months of drier conditions. NYC hasn’t had a level 3 drought since 2002. That was the last time there were water restrictions put in place. So our dry patterns haven’t been able to make it to a level 3 or 4 since the wetter regime began in 2003. The most serious droughts of the last 20 years have mostly been restricted to the West into the Plains. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx

Early guess from this eruption is that the record injection of water vapor into the stratosphere could cause a surface warming effect. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381 In summary, MLS measurements indicate that an exceptional amount of H2O was injected directly into the stratosphere by the HT-HH eruption. We estimate that the magnitude of the injection constituted at least 10% of the total stratospheric H2O burden. On the day of the eruption, the H2O plume reached ∼53 km altitude. The H2O injection bypassed the cold point tropopause, disrupted the H2O tape recorder signal, set a new record for H2O injection height in the 17-year MLS record, and could alter stratospheric chemistry and dynamics as the long-lived H2O plume propagates through the stratosphere in the BDC. Unlike previous strong eruptions in the satellite era, HT-HH could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the excess stratospheric H2O forcing. Given the potential high-impact consequences of the HT-HH H2O injection, it is critical to continue monitoring volcanic gases from this eruption and future ones to better quantify their varying roles in climate.

Newark continues to be the local leader for heat so far this summer at +5.9 in July. EWR….+5.9 PHL….+3.6 LGA…..+3.1 HPN….+2.8 JFK…..+2.8 NYC…..+2.3 BDR…..+2.1 ISP…….+1.5 map Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NJ HARRISON COOP 97 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 94 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 92 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 92 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 91 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 91 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 91 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 90

The Feb 15 -11.4 to Dec 15 +13.3 swing was the most extreme within a year. Dec 89 -10.3 to Jan 90 +9.6 and Feb 90 +6.4 was the most extreme within a season.

It’s ironic that the super El Niño flipped us to the strongest extended winter SE Ridge pattern on record. 7 consecutive warm winters is a first for our area. The weak modoki El Niño in 14-15 was our last cold winter. Since the super El Niño in 15-16 Before the super El Nino

The trade wind index recently set a monthly record for the Central Pacific this spring and in late June. So the atmospheric response to the La Niña is more impressive than the SST anomalies in the Nino region would indicate. The record SSTs in the Western Pacific and record Sydney rainfall are very impressive. Almost like a Western Pacific super El Niño. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

Newark, Harrison, Philly and SMQ are the only areas to have a heatwave away from the onshore flow. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 90 64 2022-06-30 92 68 2022-07-01 99 71 2022-07-02 96 79 2022-07-03 93 77 2022-07-04 91 64 Harrison’s days are posted a day later than they should be for some reason. The 97° was on the 1st and so on. Data for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 2022-06-30 88 67 2022-07-01 90 70 2022-07-02 97 78 2022-07-03 93 75 2022-07-04 90 64 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 87 54 2022-06-30 90 56 2022-07-01 95 59 2022-07-02 91 71 2022-07-03 89 59 2022-07-04 87 52 Data for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 88 64 2022-06-30 91 70 2022-07-01 94 73 2022-07-02 94 75 2022-07-03 91 72 2022-07-04 88 68 Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 86 66 2022-06-30 88 71 2022-07-01 95 75 2022-07-02 91 77 2022-07-03 88 74 2022-07-04 87 68 Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 81 60 2022-06-30 84 64 2022-07-01 83 67 2022-07-02 84 72 2022-07-03 85 66 2022-07-04 82 61 Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 85 53 2022-06-30 86 57 2022-07-01 94 60 2022-07-02 87 69 2022-07-03 85 57 2022-07-04 85 53

We had the super El Niño jump in 2016 which established the new higher baseline. Then a drop in temperature from 2017 to 2019 with the La Niña. The weak El Niño in 2020 was enough to almost reach the 2016 record. Then the La Nina in 2021 and 2022 has prevented a challenge of the 2016 record. We will probably see the 2016 record surpassed the next time we get an El Niño.