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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    Thanks. Had family in this area so it worked out easier for me.
  2. bluewave
    I am in a little cooler spot than the LI South Shore used to be for me and it’s down to a crisp 56° here at KHVN.
  3. bluewave
    It does pose the question of how warm the ENSO regions need to get for more of a Nino-like atmospheric response than we have seen? https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
  4. bluewave
    September and October have been our fastest warming fall months in recent decades. The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. The summer worked out similarly with July posting the greatest warm departure relative to June and August. ……….EWR…..ISP Dec…+1.5….+1.5 Jan….+1.2…+1.3 Feb….+0.5….+0.5 Mar….+0.4….+0.6 Apr….+0.5…..+0.6 May...+0.6….+0.9 Jun….+0.3….+0.6 Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1 Aug...+0.6….+0.9 Sep….+1.0….+1.3 Oct…..+0.9..+1.4 Nov….+0.2..+0.5
  5. bluewave
    Yeah, actual +30C SSTs from the Dateline to WPAC are much warmer than +1 to +2 or even +3 departures in the ENSO regions. The departures in the eastern regions just don’t have the same bite anymore while the WPAC is so warm. That’s how Nino 1+2 can have such high departures for months and not move the needle on forcing. Back in 1997 we saw the dominant forcing during the summer much further east. But that year didn’t have any competition from the WPAC which was much cooler. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
  6. bluewave
    Unusually Niña-like MJO action to start September for a El Niño year as the WPAC warm pool is battling the ENSO warming. The IOD looks too weak relative to the WPAC warm pool to have much influence outside that local area.
  7. bluewave
    Big westward lean to the forcing for the first half of September. The forcing plots beyond 2 weeks usually aren’t that reliable. We may see the forcing stall out near the DL again and only some transient EP forcing before the next wave rolls out.
  8. bluewave
    But the subsurface is lagging 1982 at this point when it was getting close to +2 heading into September.
  9. bluewave
    Just looking at the 2nd lowest December -AO last year would have made you think we should have had a KU event.
  10. bluewave
    Provided that the OHC makes a big move upward to the +1.50 +2.00 range from the values only around +1.2 today. Unless the subsurface relationship will do something new like we have seen with many aspects of this event. Plus we just don’t have a big enough sample size of events to account for all the possible variability that may present.
  11. bluewave
    Summer temperatures were close to average for the warmer 1991-2020 climate normals period. Rainfall was above average north and below average south. Seems like the Driscoll Bridge was the dividing line between above and below average rainfall.
  12. bluewave
    This event is unique and nothing like the stronger Pre-1980 evolutions. Just go into the data pages from the strongest events during that era and you can see the differences. Notice how much warmer Nino 1+2 and 3 is along with Nino 4 is now. Nino 3.4 is a little cooler this time. Also take note how much warmer the entire WPAC is now. You can also see the S and W displacement of the forcing away from the equator which was previously the norm.
  13. bluewave
    I was wondering if the lingering -PDO cold tongue to the SW of a Baja May be playing a role?
  14. bluewave
    Kind of odd how the strongest VP anomalies were displaced into the Southern Hemisphere near 30S instead of on the equator and northl like we typically see during stronger El Niño’s this time of year.
  15. bluewave
    It will be interesting to see how things play out since the subsurface evolution with this event has been very unique.
  16. bluewave
    Rainy morning here at KHVN.
  17. bluewave
    While the relationship isn’t exact, the last 3 super El Niño’s had OHC near or over +2. I know it’s s a small sample size of only 3 so there can be more variation. Peak OHC 15-16….1.97 97-98…2.56 82-83...2.07
  18. bluewave
    Except that no pre 1980 El Niño had such high Nino 4 readings while 1+2 and 3 were this warm. Also subsurface pre 1980 on JMA was much warmer in CPAC and cooler in WPAC. Plus the stronger trades near the Dateline in early September were unheard of before now during the stronger El Niño years.
  19. bluewave
    Give me a 30 day pattern like this and I don’t care what the rest of the winter does.
  20. bluewave
    Anything over +1 in the Nino 4 region is very strong due to the narrower range there than areas further east. The earlier record warmest was in the 09-10 El Niño at +1.18 on ersst v5 for a monthly average. So that was the strongest modoki on record to that point in time. The 15-16 super El Niño set the all-time record coming in at +1.44. If we can sustain a monthly Nino 4 ersst v5 reading above +1, then it will be a top 3 strongest Nino 4. Remember, none of the past east based El Niño’s like 97-98 and 82-83 even approached +1 or greater in Nino 4. Technically speaking, Nino 4 remaining above +1 will constitute a full basin event since the forcing will lean west.
  21. bluewave
    Maybe we can find a way to sneak in a PRE with two hurricanes to our south on Wednesday and a strong jet entrance region over the Northeast.
  22. bluewave
    I believe the most anomalously warm ENSO region for late August is Nino 4. Nino 1+2 and 3 were warmer in 1997. But someone can check and see how close Nino 4 is to the record near +30 C. So it’s no surprise that the forcing will focus near the Dateline. Very rare modoki forcing with 1+2 and 3 influence getting muted.
  23. bluewave
    Yeah, living near the shore is great. But the challenge on Long Island is summer traffic and lack of parking in places like Long Beach. Long Beach made a nice comeback after Sandy. Great restaurant scene and newer boardwalk.
  24. bluewave
    Haha. I liked the shoreline best. But the cost of living was through the roof.
  25. bluewave
    Yeah, very small sample size and the current subsurface doesn’t match any of the past cases in the JMA extended subsurface data set. At least in 1997 and 2016, we could see the upper ocean heat anomalies near 2c. This time we are only half that amount. So it’s hard to know how much warming is in pipeline.
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