bluewave

Wettest start to meteorological summer at JFK since 2003. The 1.36 nearly tied the daily record. So heavy rains just one day after the record heat. Data for June 1 - JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2003-06-01 66 54 1.37 0.0 0 2022-06-01 67 59 1.36 M M 1975-06-01 75 66 1.35 0.0 0 2018-06-01 75 63 1.18 0.0 0

This was our greatest high temperature drop from May 31 to June 1. All the other years with such a warm end to May were also warm to start June. The high of 71° at Newark today was 27° cooler than the record high of 98° yesterday. So a continuation of the our big weather swings theme. Data for May 31 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature June 1st Difference 2022-05-31 98 71 -27 1987-05-31 96 94 -2 1986-05-31 95 94 -1 1939-05-31 95 83 -12 2013-05-31 94 93 -1 2007-05-31 94 92 -2 1988-05-31 94 93 -1 1944-05-31 94 87 -7 1991-05-31 92 87 -5 1956-05-31 92 87 -5 1937-05-31 92 94 +2

The effective range of most ensemble guidance is only about 7 to sometimes 15 days. We have been experiencing some very big swings in our weather recently. So trying to figure out the patterns beyond 2 weeks is usually pretty low skill.

This may be the first time that the biggest -AO and -NAO drop of the year was delayed until June.

This is an unusual pattern shift from May to June. Maybe it’s related to the developing -IOD and amplified MJO 7-8? Most of the past years with such a strong May ridge over the Northeast we’re followed by a ridge over the Great Lakes in June. The models have an opposite pattern with a Great Lakes trough into at least mid-June.

It’’s going to be a while before we get record heat again like we had yesterday. The whole pattern is shifting right as we start June. May featured consistent onshore flow and short periods record heat only lasting a day or two. The record ridge over the Northeast and Great Lakes is getting replaced by a trough. May pattern Much different pattern into mid-June

Yeah, EWR got the June all-time high temperature record of 103° last summer before the historic rains arrived. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 103 0 2 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 3 1988 101 0 - 1966 101 0 4 1959 100 0 - 1953 100 0 - 1934 100 0

The 98° at Newark was the 2nd highest temperature recorded during the month of May. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1996 99 0 2 1992 98 0 1987 98 0 1962 98 0 2022 98 0

Highest May temperature at Newark since the all-time record of 99° set in 1996. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 331 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2022 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... A DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 HAS BEEN SET SO FAR TODAY AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 SET IN 1987. RECORDS AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1931.

The blowing pollen really reduced the visibility when the backdoor came through New England earlier.

LGA getting a cooler breeze off the water compared to the heat at Astoria and Corona. LGA May 31, 2:51 pm 92 56 30 NNW 14G17 Astoria Temp: 96°F Corona Temp: 97°F

The backdoor is through MTP with a rapid 15° drop. May 31, 2:54 pm 72 59 64 E 12G20 1013.80 29.93 29.94 May 31, 1:54 pm 87 65 48 W 7 1012.80 29.90 29.91 88 72

Mid 90s at the warm spots on the NYC micronet. Fresh Kills Temp: 95°F Bensonhurst / Mapleton Temp: 95°F Lefferts / South Ozone Park Temp: 96°F Astoria Temp: 95°F Corona Temp: 95°F

The pollen cloud that the backdoor is kicking up is very impressive.

Boston just experienced one of its greatest 10 minute temperature drops for the month of May.

This is the first time in May that our local stations made it to 90° by 10am. Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 90 62 39 NW18G30 29.97F HX 90 https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc 13th St./16th / Alphabet City Temp: 90°F Brownsville Temp: 92°F Corona Temp: 90°F Lefferts / South Ozone Park Temp: 90°F

This is the first time that JFK made it to 80° at 8am in May. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&month=may&var=max_tmpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

We are coming off 4 warmer summers in a row from 2018 to 2021. Numerous heat and humidity records have been set since 2018. The only other 4 year warm streaks were 2010 to 2013 and 2005 to 2008. The 5th summers had cooler temperatures in 2009 and near normal in 2014. Our last summer with near average temperatures was back in 2017. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 Near normal and cool years bolded Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 2021….+1.1….+1.2 2020…+2.6….+2.9 2019…+1.5…..+1.8 2018…+1.7……+1.8 2017…..+0.2….0.0 2016….+2.5….+2.5 2015….+1.4…..+0.8 2014…..-0.1…..-0.1 2013….+1.2…..+1.3 2012…..+1.7…..+1.7 2011…..+2.2…..+1.8 2010….+3.9…..+3.4 2009….-0.6…..-0.6 2008….+1.2……+1.4 2007…..+0.3…..+0.6 2006…..+1.7……+1.6 2005…..+2.6…..+3.3 2004…..-0.3….-0.6 2003…+0.4….+0.4 2002…..+1.6….+2.3 2001…..+0.7…..+0.6 2000…..-1.2…..-1.3 1999…..+2.7…..+2.9 1998….+0.7…..+0.7 1997….-0.3……-0.8 1996…..-0.6….-0.4 1995….+1.4…..+1.8 1994….+1.5…..+1.8 1993….+1.4…..+1.3 1992….-2.0…..-2.3 1991…..+1.8…..+1.7

The May minimum temperatures were especially warm from White Plains to Danbury with the persistent onshore flow. Average minimum temperatures at White Plains were the 5th warmest on record for May. While the Danbury record only goes back to 1998, it was the warmest on record for May. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 55.0 0 2 2018 53.9 0 3 1991 53.8 1 4 1998 53.2 1 - 1965 53.2 0 5 2022 52.8 2 6 2011 52.6 0 7 1985 52.2 2 8 2015 52.1 0 9 1959 51.9 0 10 1964 51.8 0 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 53.2 2 2 2012 52.6 0 3 2018 51.4 1 4 2004 50.8 0 5 2015 49.6 0

Yeah, it looks like a nighttime backdoor after peak heating. The extension of the subtropical ridge into SE Canada has been giving us frequent backdoors and onshore flow in recent years. Sometimes we see it linking up with the Greenland block. So high pressure over SE Canada is typical in this pattern.

I believe Boston holds the US backdoor after 90s record dropping from 91° to 59° in one hour during April 02.

Backdoors this time of year usually stall out in Central NJ. That’s what the 12z guidance today is indicating. So we should see a big temperature drop on easterly flow especially here on Long Island.

Tuesday could feature a very impressive temperature drop especially east of the Hudson. Near record highs in the 90s could drop sharply at night. It will all depend on how fast and far west the backdoor makes it before stalling out. It may come down to nowcast time for the higher resolution models.

The +SOI gave us the -PNA and the La Niña contributed to the record ridge over SE Canada. But we got a more amplified version of the typical May La Niña background state. Rare combination of unusually cold spring La Niña SSTs, +SOI, and negative IOD.

Tuesday looks like it could be the 3rd 95° day of the season so far. Very warm WNW flow ahead of the backdoor. Quite a difference between our area and New Hampshire. JFK could beat the record high of 92° set in 1988. Data for May 31 - JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1988-05-31 92 65 0.00 0.0 0 1991-05-31 91 69 1.08 0.0 0 1986-05-31 91 69 0.01 0.0 0