bluewave

Newark is in line with the surrounding stations from the SMQ area to Harrison. The airports near the Delaware just haven’t been as warm as the other areas of Eastern PA. These are the summer high temperatures of the last few years. Even downtown Philly reached 100. Data for June 1, 2022 through August 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature Newark Area ThreadEx 102 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 HARRISON COOP 102 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 101 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 101 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 101 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 101 CANOE BROOK COOP 101 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 100 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 100 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 100 Data for June 1, 2022 through August 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature ACMETONIA LOCK 3 COOP 102 NORRISTOWN COOP 100 PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 99 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 BEAR GAP COOP 99 Philadelphia Area ThreadEx 99 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 99 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 99 for June 1, 2021 through August 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 Newark Area ThreadEx 103 HARRISON COOP 101 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 100 Data for June 1, 2021 through August 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature WOLFSBURG COOP 101 ACMETONIA LOCK 3 COOP 101 SHIPPENSBURG COOP 100 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 100 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 100 Reading Area ThreadEx 99 BIGLERVILLE COOP 99 LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT COOP 99 PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 99 READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 SELINSGROVE 2 S COOP 99 SUNBURY COOP 98 LOCK HAVEN SEWAGE PLANT COOP 98 CASHTOWN 1S COOP 98 Middletown-Harrisburg Area ThreadEx 98 CARLISLE WATER PLANT COOP 98 LANCASTER AIRPORT WBAN 98 MIDDLETOWN HARRISBURG INT'L AP WBAN 98 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 98 WILLIAMSPORT 2 COOP 98 DOYLESTOWN AIRPORT WBAN 98 PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 97 SAFE HARBOR DAM COOP 97 CONNELLSVILLE 2 SSW COOP 97 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 97 Data for June 1, 2020 through August 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 99 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 98 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 98 HARRISON COOP 98 MARGATE COOP 98 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 97 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 97 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 97 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 97 CANOE BROOK COOP 97 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 97 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 96 Newark Area ThreadEx 96 CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 96 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 96 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 96 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 Data for June 1, 2020 through August 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature MURRYSVILLE 2 SW COOP 102 MIDDLETOWN HARRISBURG INT'L AP WBAN 100 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 100 WILLIAMSPORT REGIONAL AP WBAN 100 HANOVER 4 SW COOP 100 Williamsport Area ThreadEx 100 Middletown-Harrisburg Area ThreadEx 100 EVERETT COOP 99 CONNELLSVILLE 2 SSW COOP 99 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 WOLFSBURG COOP 99 READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 LOCK HAVEN SEWAGE PLANT COOP 99 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 99 HARRISBURG 1 NE COOP 99 CARLISLE WATER PLANT COOP 99 Reading Area ThreadEx 99 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 99

6 days reaching a 100° last summer at Newark and Freehold and SMQ at 5. There were 2 COOP sites that made it to 100° in PA. The Franklin Institute in Philly reached 100° back in 2021. A COOP in PA had 6 days reach 100° in 2020. So Philly hasn’t been a local warm spot as the airports have been a little cooler with the flow off the Delaware River. Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 6 Newark Area ThreadEx 6 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 6 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 5 CANOE BROOK COOP 4 HARRISON COOP 4 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 2 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 2 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 1 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 1 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 1 Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 NORRISTOWN COOP 1 ACMETONIA LOCK 3 COOP 1 Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 SHIPPENSBURG COOP 2 WOLFSBURG COOP 1 ACMETONIA LOCK 3 COOP 1 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 1 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 1 Data for January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 MURRYSVILLE 2 SW COOP 6 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 3 MIDDLETOWN HARRISBURG INT'L AP WBAN 1 WILLIAMSPORT REGIONAL AP WBAN 1 Williamsport Area ThreadEx 1 Middletown-Harrisburg Area ThreadEx 1

For somebody in the Atlantic Basin with a record amount of high octane SST fuel out there.

Very strong south based block like we have been seeing in recent years.

Newark behind other stations for 90° day lead across region. Data for January 1, 2023 through July 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 14 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 14 ESTELL MANOR COOP 14 HARRISON COOP 14 Newark Area ThreadEx 12 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 12 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 11 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 10 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 10 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 10 Data for January 1, 2023 through July 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 14 LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT COOP 13 READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10 NEW HOLLAND 2 SE COOP 10 SCHENLEY LOCK 5 COOP 10 Reading Area ThreadEx 10 Data for January 1, 2023 through July 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 WEST POINT COOP 10 Data for January 1, 2023 through July 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10 Hartford Area ThreadEx 10 Data for January 1, 2023 through July 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 REISTERSTOWN COOP 17 BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 16 Baltimore Area ThreadEx 16 Baltimore Downtown Area ThreadEx 15 MARYLAND SCIENCE CENTER WBAN 15 PATUXENT RIVER NAS WBAN 12 STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 12 Salisbury Area ThreadEx 11 SALISBURY-WICOMICO REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 11

The latest OISST from Nino 3.4 is +1.1. The same week in 2016 was +1.4. 1997 came in at +1.4 also. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Nearly 20” at West Point over the last 30 days. Data for June 18, 2023 through July 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY WEST POINT COOP 19.07 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 16.66 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 14.11 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 13.32 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 12.49 NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 11.90 NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.83 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 11.67 NY WALDEN 1.2 S CoCoRaHS 11.67 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 11.00 NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 10.98 NY PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.66 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 10.65 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 10.53 CT GUILFORD COOP 10.33 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS

Wettest July on record at MGJ since records began in 1998. This has been the 6th wettest July at RDG since the late 1800s. Also the 7th wettest July at Islip. This has been the 6th warmest July so far at Newark which has been drier at only 3.73”. Nearby Harrison is 7th warmest. Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2023 9.15 15 2 2016 6.98 2 3 2021 6.72 1 4 2018 6.12 0 5 2009 5.65 1 Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1916 12.41 0 2 1969 12.15 0 3 1925 11.66 0 4 2004 11.37 0 5 1889 9.30 0 6 2023 8.84 15 7 1952 8.60 0 8 2017 8.45 0 9 1912 8.34 0 10 1873 8.32 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1984 8.36 0 2 1969 7.67 0 3 1996 6.55 0 4 2009 6.52 0 5 2007 6.50 0 6 1992 6.20 0 7 2023 6.00 15 8 2006 5.46 0 9 2020 5.15 0 10 2021 5.12 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 2022 82.6 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2023 81.0 15 7 2013 80.9 0 8 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 9 2019 80.6 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81.6 0 2 2020 81.5 0 3 2019 81.4 0 4 2012 81.2 2 5 2010 81.1 2 6 2002 80.9 0 7 2023 80.7 15 - 2013 80.7 0 8 2011 80.5 3 9 2016 79.8 0 10 2018 79.4 0 - 2006 79.4 0

The previous record was 2.26 set back in 2021.

Record PWAT for the date.

It’s great to speak with you again. I was born a few days after a famous 1960s KU event. So you can say it’s in my meteorological birth chart.

While December 2015 is a tough act to follow, another winter in the upper 30s to around 40° in NYC could still be possible. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 50.8 0 2 2001 44.1 0 3 2021 43.8 0 4 1984 43.7 0 5 2006 43.6 0 6 2011 43.3 0 7 1998 43.1 0 8 1982 42.7 0 9 1990 42.6 0 10 1891 42.5 0 Top 20 warmest winters since 2011-2012 bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2022-2023 41.0 0 - 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.1 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 2019-2020 39.2 0 8 1990-1991 39.1 0 9 1998-1999 38.6 0 10 1948-1949 38.5 0 11 1889-1890 38.4 0 12 1952-1953 38.1 0 13 1982-1983 37.9 0 - 1936-1937 37.9 0 14 1996-1997 37.8 0 - 1932-1933 37.8 0 15 1949-1950 37.6 2 16 1974-1975 37.5 0 - 1879-1880 37.5 2 17 1953-1954 37.4 0 18 2005-2006 37.3 0 19 1991-1992 37.2 0 - 1951-1952 37.2 2 20 2021-2022 37.1 0 - 1994-1995 37.1 0 - 1912-1913 37.1 0

This has to be one of my favorite weather short films of the last decade or so.

A basinwide VP forcing signal with a westward lean could still produce a warmer winter. But a well timed STJ impulse with some blocking could produce the famous El Niño rogue KU event. Most will take a mild and snowier winter than this past one over mild and snowless.

While the location of the best forcing for next winter is still uncertain, the much warmer WPAC is pulling the forcing much further west than at this point in 1997. So a +3 Nino 1+2 anomaly today may only be effectively similar to a +1 to +1.5 with the WPAC at record warm levels. Nino 1+2 may need to get closer to +4 to +5 with a cooler WPAC to have any influence next winter.

That’s true. But even dry heat which gets so high really doesn’t appeal to me either. I have always enjoyed the cooler seasons here more but I track everything and find interest in the variety. The one truth about the cold is you can always add more layers but there is only so much you can take off in extreme heat. Though the walks to the bus stop in the 76-77 winter we’re pretty tough. But not as bad as 100° with a 75° dewpoint. That’s just me.

The US population migration patterns are moving in the wrong direction for the current and future climate projections. The Northeast and Great Lakes should be the go to destinations for the way climate is a changing. But people have been leaving this region and heading south and west. Those areas have been experiencing serious drought, wildfires, heat, and major hurricanes. I will take my chances in a region that can experience too much rain like the other day over fires and multiyear drought. Plus those ares are also prone to flooding cycles also.

Tough combination of CC+UHI expansion. CC has seen minimum temperatures increasing faster than maximums at both rural and urban locations. The population has nearly tripled at Phoenix since 1974. So we can add an expanding heat island to the mix for ridiculously high daily minimum temperatures. I don’t see the appeal or living in that climate during the warm season.

Impressive south based blocking pattern continues. These south based blocks have become more common in recent years. Allowed for record rainfall and flooding underneath it.

Shrub Oak in at 8.10”. https://www.cocorahs.org Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NY-WC-20 Station Name: Shrub Oak 0.6 WNW Observation Date 7/10/2023 6:00 AM Submitted 7/10/2023 6:26 AM Gauge Catch 8.10 in. Notes -- Snow Information 24-hr Snowfall NA 24-hr Snowfall SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) NA 24-hr Snowfall SLR (Snow to Liquid Ratio) NA Snowpack Depth NA Snowpack SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) NA Snowpack Density NA Duration Information Precipitation Began -- Precipitation Ended -- Heavy Precip Began -- Heavy Precip Lasted -- Duration Time Accuracy -- Additional Information Flooding -- Additional Data Recorded No

That’s due to the Central Pacific trade wind index remaining positive every spring month throughJune which hasn’t happened during an El Niño since 97-98. Even the weaker years had one negative month which means relaxing trades and stronger WWBs. The MEI takes in factors like winds, SSTs, and OLR. The stronger trades have allowed Nino 3.4 to lag behind super El Niño years like 97-98 and 15-16. So going over 2.0 in 3.4 doesn’t look likely unless we get a stronger CP WWB pattern developing. 850 MB TRADE WIND INDEX(175W-140W)5N 5S CENTRAL PACIFIC ANOMALY

While June Nino 3.4 was behind 1997 and 2015 at +0.81, it was still significant early development for this time of year. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html

Nearly all were near the beginning or the end of El Niños.

Islip right at 10th coolest June so far. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1982 64.5 0 2 1972 64.6 0 3 1979 64.8 0 - 1968 64.8 0 4 1985 65.4 0 5 2009 65.5 0 - 1965 65.5 0 6 2003 66.1 0 7 1992 66.3 0 - 1977 66.3 0 8 1964 66.5 0 9 1974 66.7 0 10 2023 66.8 3

Yeah, the forcing is much further west than we typically see from an El Niño in June.