bluewave
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White Plains is currently in 3rd place for warmest winter with Poughkeepsie in 4th. Danbury is in 1st place for warmest with a period of record starting there in 98-99. Only the 4th winter when Caribou averaged over 20°. BTV is 3rd warmest at nearly 30°. You can see how many top ranking warmest winters there have been since the 15-16 super El Niño. So very close tracking between the interior Northeast and coastal plain. Equivalent benchmarks for warmest across the region NYC….40°+ HPN…..36°+ POU…..34°+ DXR…...34°+ CAR……19°+ BTV……27°+ Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 37.2 0 - 2001-2002 37.2 0 2 2011-2012 37.1 1 3 2022-2023 36.8 15 4 1997-1998 36.6 25 5 2016-2017 36.1 1 6 2019-2020 35.7 3 7 1998-1999 35.1 25 - 1990-1991 35.1 8 8 1996-1997 34.8 32 9 1952-1953 34.4 0 10 2012-2013 33.8 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 36.8 0 2 1931-1932 35.2 7 3 2011-2012 34.8 1 4 2022-2023 34.3 15 - 2001-2002 34.3 0 5 1932-1933 34.1 8 6 1936-1937 33.8 2 7 2019-2020 33.0 0 - 1997-1998 33.0 2 8 1996-1997 32.8 2 9 2016-2017 32.6 0 10 1952-1953 32.2 0 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022-2023 36.3 15 2 2015-2016 35.1 0 3 2001-2002 34.7 0 4 2011-2012 34.6 1 5 2021-2022 33.1 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 21.6 0 2 2009-2010 21.0 0 3 2020-2021 20.8 0 4 2022-2023 20.7 15 5 2001-2002 19.3 0 6 2019-2020 17.9 0 7 1959-1960 17.7 0 8 2011-2012 17.6 0 - 2010-2011 17.6 0 - 1957-1958 17.6 0 9 1982-1983 17.5 0 10 2005-2006 17.3 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 30.2 0 2 2016-2017 29.5 0 3 2022-2023 29.4 15 4 2001-2002 28.8 0 5 2011-2012 27.8 0 6 1932-1933 27.6 0 - 1905-1906 27.6 1 7 1936-1937 26.3 0 8 2019-2020 26.1 0 9 1931-1932 26.0 0 10 1948-1949 25.9 0
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Spring is 3-4 weeks early over much of the Southeast into the lower Mid-Atlantic.
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The only time that it is believable is if it makes it to within 120 hrs. Even during other winters with more snow, models show too much snow beyond 120 hrs. We would have multiple 75-100 seasons if all the post 120hr snowfall verified.
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We need a -NAO to suppress the SE Ridge just enough. But not so much that the trailing waves get suppressed. So a bit of a thread the needle to get NYC past 1” on the season. Too weak a -NAO and the frozen stays up in New England. This would lead to a stronger SE Ridge than forecast days 8-15 as has been the story all season. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html
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SE Ridge still a factor at 240 hrs. Some slightly better east based blocking than the old 360 hr forecast. We would need the gradient to push south of NYC to have a shot at going over 1” in NYC. Otherwise it will be a New England special pattern especially the higher elevations. New run Old run
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Not sure a -AO or -NAO would have as much impact as the better SSW years this March with how hostile the Pacific continues to be. We had the 2nd lowest December -AO on record back in December. This year is the lowest seasonal snowfall by a wide margin for top 5 lowest December AO years. While a -PNA is less hostile overall in late February and March than December, we would still want to see some Pacific improvement. Perhaps enough for NYC to finally get to 1” or more on the season. December top 5 -AO and seasonal snowfall 2009……-3.413….51.4” 2022…….-2.716….0.4” 2010….….-2.631…61.9” 2000…...-2.354….35.0” 1995………-2.127….75.6”
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I posted this earlier in the thread. Unfortunately, we don’t have the 17-18 snowy and more favorable pattern before this SSW. Since the 1990s, snowfall before the SSW has roughly been proportional to after.The best snowfall outcomes for NYC after the SSW already had 10.0” of snowfall before. This will be the first SSW with under 1” seasonal snowfall up to the date of the event. So the snowfall during SSW winters were a product of the greater background pattern. I bolded the Feb SSWs with around 6” or lower seasonal before the events occurred. So far this year has been closest to 01-02 which only picked up a T after the SSW. 1999, 2007, and 2008 were better but still well short of the more memorable SSWs on the list like 2018. https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html SSW dates and NYC before and after snowfall Jan 5 2021…….10.5….28.1 Jan 2 2019……..6.4…..14.1 Feb 12 2018……19.4….21.5 Jan 7 2013……..5.1……21.0 Feb 9 2010……15.5…..35.9 Jan 24 2009….12.0…..15.6 Feb 22 2008….5.7…….6.2 Feb 24 2007…..4.6……7.8 Jan 21 2006….11.7…..28.3 Jan 7 2004….19.8…..22.8 Jan 18 2003…13.2….36.1 Feb 18 2002…..3.5…..T Jan 2 2001…..13.4….21.6 Feb 25 1999…..6.7…..6.0
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The record WPAC warm pool along with the record NW Atlantic SSTs have combined for the record low snowfall. The record SSTs to our east become our friend when the Pacific becomes more favorable with Atlantic blocking. Provides more energy to the snowstorms like in January 2016 and March 2018. But the MJO forcing shifting away from 4-6 is essential. We can work with warmer winters when the MJO and Pacific becomes favorable. The one thing we can’t get with warmer winters is a challenge to 95-96 and 50” becomes much more difficult. But plenty on the forum will take a warm winter with a favorable Pacific and Atlantic blocking intervals and snowfall in the 30s or even 40s. We saw how the hostile Pacific overpowered the -4 AO back in December along with the near record cold around Christmas. That would have been a snowy pattern for us had the Pacific come on board. So the big question is if climate change will result in more hostile Pacific patterns long term? The global climate models haven’t been very helpful. So we need a longer observation period to be sure. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/how-pattern-trends-across-tropical-pacific-ocean-critical-understanding-future
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NYC has had 10 top 20 lowest snowfall seasons since the early 1990s when the variance become more extreme. But 7 of the top 10 snowiest over the same interval. The prerequisite for a top 10 snowiest in NYC is a colder than average winter. That’s why the last top 10 snowiest was back in 14-15. But NYC 2 biggest snowstorms in 2016 and 2006 were during warmer winters. So it’s easier to score one big snowfall in a warm winter than 50” or more for a seasonal total. The hostile Pacific since 18-19 has been more of a detriment to 30”+ snowfall than the warmer temperatures. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2023-04-30 0.4 76 2 1973-04-30 2.8 0 3 2002-04-30 3.5 0 4 1919-04-30 3.8 0 5 2020-04-30 4.8 0 6 1901-04-30 5.1 2 7 1932-04-30 5.3 0 8 1998-04-30 5.5 0 9 2012-04-30 7.4 0 10 1989-04-30 8.1 0 - 1878-04-30 8.1 0 11 1951-04-30 9.3 0 12 1997-04-30 10.0 0 13 1942-04-30 11.3 0 14 1955-04-30 11.5 0 15 1931-04-30 11.6 0 16 1995-04-30 11.8 0 17 2008-04-30 11.9 0 18 1872-04-30 12.1 0 19 2007-04-30 12.4 0 20 1992-04-30 12.6 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1996-04-30 75.6 0 2 1948-04-30 63.9 0 3 2011-04-30 61.9 0 4 1923-04-30 60.4 0 5 1873-04-30 60.2 0 6 2014-04-30 57.4 0 7 1875-04-30 56.4 0 8 1899-04-30 55.9 1 9 1961-04-30 54.7 0 10 1994-04-30 53.4 0 11 1907-04-30 53.2 0 12 1934-04-30 52.0 0 13 1967-04-30 51.5 0 14 2010-04-30 51.4 0 15 1978-04-30 50.7 0 - 1917-04-30 50.7 1 - 1916-04-30 50.7 0 16 2015-04-30 50.3 0 17 1893-04-30 49.4 1 18 2003-04-30 49.3 0 19 1905-04-30 48.2 0 20 1920-04-30 47.6 0
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The influence may just be enough to get NYC to 1” or more for the season. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2023-04-30 0.4 76 2 1973-04-30 2.8 0 3 2002-04-30 3.5 0 4 1919-04-30 3.8 0 5 2020-04-30 4.8 0 6 1901-04-30 5.1 2 7 1932-04-30 5.3 0 8 1998-04-30 5.5 0 9 2012-04-30 7.4 0 10 1989-04-30 8.1 0 - 1878-04-30 8.1 0
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Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 0.0 2.6 10.5 23.0 18.4 10.5 4.0 69.0 1960-1961 0.0 0.0 16.4 16.7 25.4 T T 58.5 2002-2003 T 0.3 11.3 4.3 32.1 2.8 5.4 56.2 1977-1978 0.0 0.6 1.0 20.1 18.1 8.7 0.0 48.5 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 16.2 1.4 29.6 T 0.0 47.2 1966-1967 0.0 T 8.8 2.8 19.9 15.5 T 47.0 2013-2014 0.0 0.2 6.7 17.0 21.0 0.6 0.1 45.6 1993-1994 0.0 T 8.0 7.1 23.7 6.4 0.0 45.2 1948-1949 0.0 T 22.4 5.2 12.4 4.5 0.0 44.5 2014-2015 0.0 0.1 0.3 17.1 13.6 13.1 0.0 44.2 2010-2011 0.0 T 15.8 22.1 2.8 1.3 T 42.0 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.3 8.1 1.9 T 41.4
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Since the 1990s, snowfall before the SSW has roughly been proportional to after.The best snowfall outcomes for NYC after the SSW already had 10.0” of snowfall before. This will be the first SSW with under 1” seasonal snowfall up to the date of the event. So the snowfall during SSW winters were a product of the greater background pattern. https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html SSW dates and NYC before and after snowfall Jan 5 2021…….10.5….28.1 Jan 2 2019……..6.4…..14.1 Feb 12 2018……19.4….21.5 Jan 7 2013……..5.1……21.0 Feb 9 2010……15.5…..35.9 Jan 24 2009….12.0…..15.6 Feb 22 2008….5.7…….6.2 Feb 24 2007…..4.6……7.8 Jan 21 2006….11.7…..28.3 Jan 7 2004….19.8…..22.8 Jan 18 2003…13.2….36.1 Feb 18 2002…..3.5…..T Jan 2 2001…..13.4….21.6 Feb 25 1999…..6.7…..6.0
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Maybe we get a brief gradient pattern that gets NYC over 1” on the season if the SE Ridge doesn’t correct stronger again in later runs. Sometimes a -PNA can be a little better for us later in the season than the early season. But a slightly weaker than forecast Scandinavian Block or east based -NAO will allow the SE Ridge to flex too much.
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Your method along with the AWSSI both create a number based on snowfall and temperature. Both scales are a little behind 2001-2002. So one of the least severe winters on record.
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You use similar methodology to the AWSSI from the MRCC. https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp
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Currently the 3rd warmest winter in NYC through the 12th. There were 4 top 10 warmest years since the 15-16 super El Niño. 9 years since the early 90s made the top 10. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2022-2023 40.5 16 - 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.2 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 2019-2020 39.2 0 8 1990-1991 39.1 0 9 1998-1999 38.6 0 10 1948-1949 38.5 0 - 1889-1890 38.5 0
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There are a few things here. While the ridge out West only dominated the 13-14 and 14-15 winters, it has frequently been a player during other times of the year since then. Think about all the record heat and drought out west. So it continues to be a player in the climate and not just a passing fad. The interesting thing about the record SE Ridge or WAR is that it first emerged during the 15-16 super El Niño. December 2015 was the strongest SE Ridge or WAR for a whole month leading to the +13.3 departure. But since it was an El Niño, off course the SE Ridge eventually faded in January with the historic blizzard. This lingered into February. It has been a factor every winter since 15-16 through this one. Now this doesn’t mean that there won’t be intervals when it relaxes for a time. An El Niño would be an ideal time for this to happen. We just need the El Niño to be able to couple. The WPAC warm pool lead to the more Nina-like pattern during the attempted 18-19 El Niño.
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Yeah, we would need a Pacific shift to get back to above average snowfall. Warm winters can work with the right storm track and blocking. So we could get 16-17, 17-18 or 20-21 type winters when the Pacific improves. But NYC would still need a colder winter to get back to 50” like 13-14 and 14-15.
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Yeah, warm winters with hostile Pacific patterns like this one will always have less snow. We would need a favorable Pacific and blocking to get big snowstorms in a warm winter. This is what happened in 15-16 and 16-17. But NYC hasn’t been able to get back to 50” with all the warmer winters since 15-16.
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Seems like the lower snowfall averages over the Mid-Atlantic have come north in recent years with the warmer winters. Those areas had a decrease after the 2010 snowfall peak. Warmer winters eventually lead to lead snow.
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13-14 could have done it a Newark with more snow in December and March. But 10-11 came closer. So just goes to show how tough it was been to challenge 95-96. During the snowfall peak from 2010-2015, stations to our north and south beat 95-96. So that may have been our last shot since winters have warmed so much since then. Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 0.0 3.0 12.8 31.6 18.4 11.9 0.7 78.4 1960-1961 T 0.0 24.0 22.2 23.3 4.0 T 73.5 2010-2011 0.0 T 24.5 37.4 4.1 2.2 T 68.2 1977-1978 0.0 1.5 0.2 27.4 25.3 10.5 T 64.9 1993-1994 0.0 T 3.9 18.5 33.4 8.7 0.0 64.5 2013-2014 0.0 T 9.4 20.8 30.3 0.2 0.4 61.1
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10-11 would have surpassed 95-96 if the snowy pattern lasted another 2-4 weeks. That was the last time we had a shot at surpassing 95-96. But it was also a cold winter. Places to our north and south set new snowiest records from 2010 to 2015. They were all colder winters than we have seen since then. The records were also set over shorter intervals than 95-96. So no new seasonal snowfall records have been set since the super El Niño in 15-16. Cold is necessary for both wall to wall 95-96 and 10-11 style short record snowfall burst winters. Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 61.5 2011-01-27 0 2 53.6 2011-01-26 0 3 48.7 1978-02-14 0 4 45.7 1978-02-18 0 5 45.5 1961-02-16 0 Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2014-2015 0.0 2.6 0.3 34.3 64.8 8.6 T 110.6 1995-1996 0.0 4.1 24.1 39.8 15.5 16.8 7.3 107.6 1993-1994 0.0 T 11.6 33.7 36.2 14.8 0.0 96.3 1947-1948 0.0 1.1 26.8 32.5 17.0 11.8 0.0 89.2 2004-2005 0.0 3.9 7.2 43.3 17.7 14.5 T 86.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1947-1948 0.0 T 30.2 15.3 13.6 4.8 0.0 63.9 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 1922-1923 0.0 1.0 8.0 24.5 18.8 8.1 T 60.4 1872-1873 0.0 3.5 26.8 10.6 18.9 0.4 0.0 60.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 24.1 3.1 51.5 T 0.0 78.7 2013-2014 0.0 T 11.2 25.9 22.4 8.5 T 68.0 1995-1996 0.0 1.9 7.3 33.8 12.9 7.2 2.4 65.5 1898-1899 0.0 13.4 0.3 5.8 31.5 4.4 T 55.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.2 23.4 19.0 12.1 T 54.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 20.1 6.9 50.0 T 0.0 77.0 1995-1996 0.0 1.0 2.3 32.6 19.0 7.6 0.0 62.5 2002-2003 0.0 0.0 9.7 5.3 40.5 2.6 T 58.1 1963-1964 0.0 T 9.7 10.3 18.2 13.2 0.4 51.8 1898-1899 0.0 9.7 0.6 5.3 33.9 1.6 T 51.1
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14-15 got started too late and the best snows were in New England that year. Plus it was our last cold winter here. NYC can’t make it past 50” without a colder winter. So even 50” will remain out of reach for NYC with these warmer winters since 15-16. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1947-1948 0.0 T 30.2 15.3 13.6 4.8 0.0 63.9 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 1922-1923 0.0 1.0 8.0 24.5 18.8 8.1 T 60.4 1872-1873 0.0 3.5 26.8 10.6 18.9 0.4 0.0 60.2 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 1874-1875 0.0 T 10.1 14.5 4.5 13.8 13.5 56.4 1898-1899 0.0 19.0 1.5 5.3 25.3 4.8 0.0 55.9 1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7 1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4 1906-1907 0.0 1.0 0.3 11.0 21.8 13.3 5.8 53.2 1933-1934 0.0 0.5 14.9 0.1 27.9 8.6 0.0 52.0 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 9.1 1.4 23.6 17.4 T 51.5 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 1916-1917 0.0 T 14.5 5.8 12.2 11.7 6.5 50.7 1915-1916 0.0 T 8.1 0.7 13.1 25.5 3.3 50.7 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
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I think 95-96 will be too tough to beat since we haven’t had wall to wall snow and cold from late November into early April since then. 10-11 was the only season that could have made a challenge but the snows cut off too early at the start of February. Most of our snowy years since 10-11 only had big snows over 1-3 months. Warming winters mean shorter duration snowy intervals. So 75” in NYC and near 90” on Long Island will hard to replicate without more extensive cold and more favorable Pacific patterns.
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The Caribou, Maine version of that record is only 26 days reaching 10° or lower which is currently the lowest and behind 09-10 by 6 days. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Number of Days Min Temperature <= 10 Missing Count 1 2022-2023 26 18 2 2009-2010 32 0 3 2015-2016 37 0 - 1938-1939 37 46 4 2020-2021 38 0 5 2001-2002 39 0 6 1939-1940 43 26 7 1950-1951 45 0 8 1953-1954 47 0 9 1996-1997 48 0 - 1968-1969 48 0 - 1959-1960 48 0 10 2016-2017 49 0 - 2012-2013 49 0 - 2005-2006 49 0 - 1998-1999 49
