bluewave

Yeah, the record warm pool north of Australia continues to be a big story.

The general rule is we get more active Atlantic hurricane seasons with a La Niña and warm Atlantic SSTs. A -IOD serves to enhance the La Niña background state with stronger trade winds. The last strong summer -IOD was in 2016 and helped to shift the super El Niño to a 2 year La Niña. Causes and Predictability of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on La Niña During 2016 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-12674-z

A bit different from our last two strong summer -IOD events. The summer 2016 and 2010 -IOD patterns came at the start of those two year La Niña events. If the models are correct, then this could be the strongest -IOD between the 2nd and potentially 3rd year La Niña. But anything is possible with those record SSTs north of Australia. The trade winds in the Central Pacific have been at record levels for the early spring since 1979. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2022-la-niña-update-measuring As I mentioned above, stronger trade winds are key to the La Niña feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The trade winds were enhanced through March, and remain stronger than average into mid-April. You want a number, you say? Okay! There’s an index that measures the near-surface winds in the central Pacific region of 5°N–5°S, 175°W–140°W; it was 4.3 meters per second (9.6 miles per hour) faster than average in March. This is the strongest March value on record, but there’s a catch—this record only goes back to 1979.

It will be interesting to see if the models are correct about the near record summer -IOD.

Not much difference between the warmest temperatures in late February and April this year. Low 70s will be the max for both periods. We were also close in 2020. The most extreme was the 80° in late February 2018 and only 70 in late April. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Feb 20 to Feb 28 Apr 20 to Apr 30 2022-02-28 70 72 +2 2021-02-28 54 89 +35 2020-02-29 62 68 +6 2019-02-28 52 78 +26 2018-02-28 80 70 -10 2017-02-28 74 86 +12 2016-02-29 64 83 +19 2015-02-28 42 78 +36 2014-02-28 54 76 +22 2013-02-28 51 71 +20 2012-02-29 60 74 +14 2011-02-28 61 85 +24 2010-02-28 50 81 +31

The latest EPS shifts the -AO block in late April to more of an omega block in early May. So a continuation of the generally cooler pattern. Could see above normal rainfall in early May with a strong Pacific Jet undercutting the block. Apr 25 to May 2 May 2 to May 9

Late April interior freeze this week as the cold that has been sitting over the Northern Tier shifts east.

The SPV was too strong this winter.

One of the few times that such a strong SE Ridge gets overpowered by the -NAO block.

Big backdoor gradient today with highs in the 60s around NYC and 80s to the south and west of the area.

We are on track for another top 5 coldest late April high temperature. This has been a common theme in recent years. Its the reverse of late February which has been top 5 warmest. So a continuation of the big temperature swings pattern. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Apr 16 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2020-04-30 68 0 2 2018-04-30 70 0 - 1940-04-30 70 0 3 1988-04-30 71 0 - 1937-04-30 71 0 - 1931-04-30 71 0 4 1966-04-30 72 0 5 2022-04-30 73 8 - 1978-04-30 73 0 6 1998-04-30 74 0 - 1997-04-30 74 0 - 1950-04-30 74 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Feb 16 to Feb 28 Missing Count 1 2018-02-28 80 0 2 2017-02-28 74 0 - 1997-02-28 74 0 - 1954-02-28 74 0 3 1985-02-28 73 0 4 2011-02-28 71 0 5 2022-02-28 70 0 - 1939-02-28 70 0

We were 2nd behind 2012 in 70° days by the start of astronomical spring. But have fallen back to 6th place with the 10th day of the year to reach 70° today. Last year finished in 1st place with 177 days. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Mar 21 Missing Count 1 2012-03-21 6 0 2 2022-03-21 4 0 - 2020-03-21 4 0 - 1990-03-21 4 0 - 1946-03-21 4 0 - 1945-03-21 4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Apr 22 Missing Count 1 1945-04-22 19 0 2 2012-04-22 18 0 3 2010-04-22 13 0 - 1977-04-22 13 0 4 1976-04-22 12 0 - 1954-04-22 12 0 5 2016-04-22 11 0 - 2002-04-22 11 0 - 1987-04-22 11 0 - 1985-04-22 11 0 - 1946-04-22 11 0 6 1998-04-22 10 0 - 1981-04-22 10 0 2022-04-22 10 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2021 177 0 2 2010 173 0 3 2015 171 0 - 1985 171 0 4 2007 170 0 5 1994 169 0 - 1946 169 0

The spring bloom was 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule in some spots before the late March hard freeze.

The concern is that the Western drought expands east to the Plains in the future resulting in lower crop yields and desertification. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201013124158.htm The first Dust Bowl In the 1930s, a drought blanketed the Great Plains, from Mexico to Canada. This wouldn't have been such a big deal except that in the 1920s Midwestern farmers had converted vast tracts of grassland into farmland using mechanical plows. When the crops failed in the drought the open areas of land that used to be covered by grass, which held soil tightly in place, were now bare dirt, vulnerable to wind erosion. "The result was massive dust storms that we associate with the Dust Bowl," Lambert says. "These dust storms removed nutrients from the soil, making it more difficult for crops to grow and more likely for wind erosion to occur." After years of drought, dust and hardship, rain finally began to fall again, bringing the Dust Bowl to a close. "But the damage was already done to the soil," Lambert says. "Some areas have still not fully recovered." Around the 2000s, the growth in demand for biofuels spurred renewed expansion of farmland to produce the needed crops. In an echo of the 1920s, this expansion replaced stable grasslands with vulnerable soil. Over five years, from 2006 to 2011, 2046 square miles (530,000 hectares) of grassland in five Midwestern states became farmland -- an area a little smaller than Delaware. At the same time, parts of the Great Plains experienced longer and more severe droughts in the 20th century. The future of drought in that region is, so far, uncertain, but the potential for a warmer, drier Great Plains has Lambert and co-author Gannet Hallar, associate professor of atmospheric sciences, bringing up the word "desertification" in relation to the potential future of the region. All together, the data cover years from 1988 to 2018. Dust, they found, is increasing in the atmosphere over the whole of the Great Plains by as much as 5% per year. "The amount of increase is really the story here," Hallar says. "That 5% a year over two decades, of course, is a hundred percent increase in dust loading. This is not a small signal to find." Correlating with crop timing The researchers further found correlations between dust in the atmosphere and crop timings. In Iowa, where soybeans have been a major expanding crop, increases in dust appeared in June and October -- planting and harvesting months, respectively, for soybeans. In the southern Great Plains states, where corn is a more dominant crop, dust increases appeared in March and October -- again correlating to corn planting and harvesting seasons. That was remarkable," Hallar says, "in the sense of how clear the signal was." Are we seeing the beginnings of the second Dust Bowl? "I think it's fair to say that what's happening with dust trends in the Midwest and the Great Plains is an indicator that the threat is real if crop land expansion continues to occur at this rate and drought risk does increase because of climate change," Lambert says. "Those would be the ingredients for another Dust Bowl." "This is an example of the need for the agricultural community in the U.S. to think about adapting and mitigating to a changing climate," Hallar says. "So if we become more arid we will need to think about the impacts of land degradation in that changed climate. What we did in the past isn't necessarily what we can do in the future."

The warm spots may be able to sneak in a 70° today before we get backdoored for the weekend. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 4/22/2022 0600 UTC DT /APR 22 /APR 23 /APR 24 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 69 45 57 46 63 TMP 55 63 66 66 60 55 50 47 50 55 55 54 50 49 48 48 50 56 60 59 52 DPT 36 31 28 28 30 30 30 31 32 30 31 33 37 37 37 38 41 42 44 43 43 CLD FW SC CL FW FW FW CL FW BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK BK BK WDR 28 31 31 31 32 33 36 01 01 15 19 22 18 20 22 20 07 10 14 14 12 WSP 10 14 16 16 12 07 04 03 05 03 05 07 05 03 03 01 03 04 07 07 05

All this blocking over the last month has created a backloaded snowfall season in Vermont ski country.

Cooler blocking pattern continuing into May on the EPS. Apr25- May 2 May 2-May 9

It doesn’t look like Newark will get another chance to challenge the monthly high of 88°. This is a very rare event for Newark. It will only be the 5 spring since 1950 with both the March and April monthly maximum temperatures occurring before the 15th. Monthly maximum temperatures this time of year usually happen later in the month. Both highs were daily records. Only 5 years since 1950 with the Newark March and April high temperature before the 15th Newark 3-7-22…….76° 4-14-22…..88° 3-11-14…..67° 4-13-14…..83° 3-9-00……74° 4-8-00……78° 3-11-67……70° 4-2-67…….83° 3-10-55…..72° 4-11-55……84° Daily record highs 3/7 76 in 2022 75 in 1946 72 in 2009+ 4/14 88 in 2022 88 in 1941 86 in 1960

Yeah, I will always take bigger snowstorms over more seasonal snowfall. ISP and ORH are the only major stations in the Northeast outside the heaviest snow belt zones with 5 snowstorms reaching 20” or more since 09-10. So the snowstorm quality on Long Island over this period can go up against any US station near sea level. But I understand that some people like more consistent snow cover and heavier seasonal totals. 20” snowstorms since 09-10 ISP…...5 ORH…5 BOS…4 SYR…4 NYC…3 BGM…3 PHL….3 BTV….3 BDL….2 EWR…2 ALB….2 BUF….2

The most extreme backdoor prize goes to Boston in April 2002 dropping from the 90s to 50s in one hour.

The 12z guidance has moved to one of the most amplified backdoor patterns in recent years during the spring for the weekend.

Yeah, the record dewpoints and heat indices are much higher now than during the dry heat of the dust bowl. https://www.weather.gov/fgf/Top_Ten_of_the_2010s Throughout the afternoon of July 19th, 2011, temperatures across much of the Northern Plains region climbed above the 90F mark. With soils saturated from several days of widespread rain, and with area crops in full growth habit, the evapotranspiration rates were at their peaks. Dewpoint temperatures surged above the 80F mark from southern Minnesota, throughout the Red River Basin of the Dakotas and western Minnesota, into and across southern Manitoba. The 88F dewpoint reading in Moorhead MN set a new all-time statewide record for Minnesota, and the resultant Heat Index of 134F marked Moorhead as one of the hottest places on earth on that particular day!

All-time heaviest April snowstorm on record for BGM. So BGM continues the theme of historic snowfall since March 2017. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY 1115 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2022 ...SNOWFALL RECORDS SET AT BINGHAMTON NY... THE 2 DAY SNOWFALL AS OF 1000 AM IS 14.2 INCHES AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT IN THE TOWN OF MAINE, NY. THIS BREAKS THE ALL TIME APRIL RECORD FOR 2 DAY SNOWFALL. THE OLD RECORD WAS 13.6 INCHES SET APRIL 15 TO APRIL 16 2007. THE ONE DAY SNOWFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT LOCAL STANDARD TIME FOR TODAY IS 11.0 INCHES AS OF 1000 AM. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR APRIL 19 OF 6.9 INCHES SET IN 1983. THIS IS ALSO THE LATEST DATE FOR ONE DAY SNOWFALL OF AT LEAST 11.0 INCHES ON RECORD. RECORD EVENT REPORT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY 235 PM EST THU DEC 17 2020 ...SNOWFALL RECORDS SET AT BINGHAMTON NY... THE 2 DAY SNOWFALL AS OF 1 PM IS 40.0" AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT IN THE TOWN OF MAINE, NY. THIS BREAKS THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR 2 DAY SNOWFALL. THE OLD RECORD WAS 35.3" SET MARCH 14 TO 15, 2017. THE ONE DAY SNOWFALL FROM TODAY IS NOW 26.4" AS OF 1 PM. THIS IS THE SECOND GREATEST SNOWFALL FOR ANY CALENDAR DAY. THE GREATEST ONE DAY SNOWFALL IS 31.2" ON MARCH 14TH, 2017. THE SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE. ...SNOW DEPTH RECORD SET AT BINGHAMTON NY... THE SNOW DEPTH THIS MORNING AT 7 AM WAS 39 INCHES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 35 INCHES ON MARCH 15 1993 AFTER A BLIZZARD. RECORDS HERE AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT GO BACK TO 1951. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 715 AM EDT WED MAR 15 2017 ...ALL TIME 24 HOUR RECORD SNOWFALL SET AT BINGHAMTON NY... A 24 HOUR RECORD SNOWFALL OCCURRED AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT FROM MARCH 14TH TO MARCH 15TH. A TOTAL OF 31.3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL BETWEEN 3 AM ON THE 14TH TO 1 AM ON THE 15TH. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD OF 23 INCHES SET IN FEBRUARY 1961.

Looks like the 5th latest freeze date following the 5th earliest 71° at the airport since 1940. Frost/Freeze Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1966 05-11 (1966) 28 10-28 (1966) 32 169 1988 04-22 (1988) 32 10-13 (1988) 32 173 1956 04-21 (1956) 32 11-10 (1956) 30 202 1983 04-20 (1983) 32 10-30 (1983) 32 192 2022 04-18 (2022) 32 11-03 (1980) 31 199 First/Last Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 1950 01-06 (1950) 71 11-09 (1950) 73 306 2007 01-06 (2007) 73 11-22 (2007) 71 319 2002 01-29 (2002) 72 11-10 (2002) 72 284 1949 02-15 (1949) 74 11-11 (1949) 74 268 1954 02-15 (1954) 72 10-27 (1954) 71 253 2018 02-20 (2018) 72 11-02 (2018) 72 254 2017 02-23 (2017) 73 11-03 (2017) 73 252 2022 02-23 (2022) 71 - - -

Yeah, many places east of NYC are yet to make it higher than the low 70s so far.This looks like a rare March and April when the warmest temperatures occur before the 15h of both months. Warmest temperatures since March 1st across the area BDR…71 ISP…..73 JFK….72 LGA….74 NYC…79 EWR…88