bluewave

No days reaching 90° at Newark during the first week of August since 1991 has resulted in only 1-7 days reaching 90° for the whole month. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Aug 1 to Aug 7 90° days for August 2023-08-07 84 ? 1996-08-07 85 1 2013-08-07 87 3 2003-08-07 87 7 1992-08-07 87 4 2014-08-07 89 2 2004-08-07 89 2 1998-08-07 89 7

West Point finishes with the most extreme rainfall around the region. Time Series Summary for WEST POINT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2023 18.12 3 2 1897 13.05 0 3 2016 11.02 0 4 1945 10.21 0 5 1960 9.64 0 6 2018 9.27 0 7 1996 9.00 0 8 1984 8.65 0 9 1975 7.91 0 10 1994 7.72 0 - 1938 7.72 0

Not sure why you say that. It gives you the 10 highest temperatures for the month which is all that we really are concerned with in compiling a temperature record for a given location. The first table below is ranked by year. The 2nd table is dense rank and shows the 10 highest temperatures and the months. Rank for ten warmest years Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 4 2020 76.9 0 5 2022 76.8 0 - 2019 76.8 0 7 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 9 2011 76.6 1 10 2023 76.4 2 - 2012 76.4 0 Dense Rank 10 warmest temperatures Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 2 2010 77.0 0 3 2020 76.9 0 4 2022 76.8 0 4 2019 76.8 0 5 1966 76.7 0 5 1955 76.7 2 6 2011 76.6 1 7 2023 76.4 2 7 2012 76.4 0 8 2016 76.3 0 8 1983 76.3 1 9 1952 76.2 0 9 1949 76.2 0 10 1995 76.0 6

That’s why dense rank sorting for temperature records gives a much better perspective. https://www.voltactivedata.com/blog/2016/12/rank-dense-rank/ What if there are 5 contestants whose score is 100? How will we decide among them? One plausible way, in the absence of other deciding factors, would be to list all 5 as number one, awarding 5 first place prizes. If the first two scores are both 100, and the next is 99 is the contestant with score 99 the second or the third? In a baseball league the contestant with 99 would be third. In a contest where we care about scores more than contestants who achieve the scores, the 99 would be the second score. This might happen if we were looking at high temperatures in cities, and we care about the temperature numbers more than the cities that attained them. For shorthand in this note, call the first ranking the baseball ranking, and the second the temperature ranking The NWS is New York uses dense rank sorting for top 10 temperature records. So there can be more than 10 years attaining a top 10 for warmest or coldest. But they haven’t updated for the numerous top 10 warmest months since they last updated in 2021. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldyearsmonths.pdf

We could have used that June Hudson Bay block during January or February.

The July average minimum temperatures have the highest rankings around the edges with a cool spot in the middle. https://sercc.oasis.unc.edu/Map.php?date=2023-07-20&var=avgt&thresh=climper&period=MTD&map_display=rank&showthrdx=true&region=conus#

It hasn’t been hot across a large portion of the mid US. But there has been record heat along the edges from Maine to Arizona and Florida. The individual rankings tell a more complete story since the 1991-2020 climate normals are so warm compared to previous 30 year intervals. Many places can approach top 10 warmth these days by just going +2 against these warmer normals. I guess the U.S is getting off relative easy this month compared to the rest of the planet.

Probably due to the higher pressure east of New England turning the flow more onshore since 2015. Newark has had 3 top 5 years for 90s since then. JFK hasn’t had any top 5 years since then. JFK needs westerly flow for a high number of 90° days. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0

It’s always going to be easier getting high 90° day counts further from the shore like we saw last summer. Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 50 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 50 PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 48 Philadelphia Area ThreadEx 48 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 43 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 42 LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT COOP 41 NORRISTOWN COOP 40 for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 53 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 49 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49 Newark Area ThreadEx 49 CANOE BROOK COOP 47 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 46 HARRISON COOP 44 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 43 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 43 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 42 ESTELL MANOR COOP 41 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 40

Some of our fastest growing cities are in really hot climates. Increasing urbanization plus global warming adds to the adaptation challenge. They are going to have to get creative.

Yeah, their average minimum was around +3 warmer this month than the next warmest low temperature July set back in 2020. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 63.1 2 2 2020 59.9 0 3 1947 59.5 0 4 2018 59.4 0 5 2010 59.2 0

Caribou is expected to finally drop below 55° in the coming days.

Yeah, by a few degrees. Both were at record levels this month over 110°. Not a fun place to spend the summer.

All the upper 80s days at the local warm spots become low 90s when you factor in the high dew points pushing the heat index into the low 90s for the monthly daily high temperature average. Even JFK gets closer to 90 when you factor in the record high dew points. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&season=jul&varname=feel&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

At XMACIS2. The departures were largely driven by so many top 5 average warm minimum monthly temperatures around the region with the near to record high dew points. So the perception by some was that it wasn’t that hot of a month since there were no 100s and the 90 day count wasn’t as high as some recent years. http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/wxstation/perspectives/perspectives.html

Another top 10 warmest month so far for several of our stations around the area. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.6 0 2 2019 78.1 0 3 2013 78.0 0 - 2010 78.0 0 4 2020 77.7 0 5 2011 77.6 0 6 2023 77.5 2 7 1994 77.3 0 8 2022 77.1 0 9 2016 76.8 0 10 1966 76.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 82.9 0 2 2010 82.8 0 3 1999 81.9 0 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2022 81.1 0 - 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 2023 80.8 2 - 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 3 2020 76.9 0 4 2022 76.8 0 - 2019 76.8 0 5 2023 76.7 3 - 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 6 2011 76.6 1 7 2012 76.4 0 8 2016 76.3 0 - 1983 76.3 1 9 1952 76.2 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 2022 82.6 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2023 81.0 2 7 2013 80.9 0 8 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 9 2019 80.6 0 10 1955 80.5 0

Record high average dewpoints this month near the coast and 2nd place at Newark. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&season=jul&varname=feel&agg=mean&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The mid to upper 90s made it to NJ along with Brooklyn and Queens away from the sea breeze. You knew that Central Park wasn’t making it to 100° due to the overgrowth covering the sensor. The models and many forecasters don’t take that into account. Most don’t realize how dense the tree and plant growth has been around the NYC ASOS. Data for July 26, 2023 through July 29, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 97 Data for July 26, 2023 through July 29, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NJ HARRISON COOP 96 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 95 160 Ave. / Howard Beach 96 Brownsville 95 Corona 99 Lefferts / South Ozone Park 97 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 96 2021 1920 More 100s back in the old days when the sensor was out in open

Too much moisture and clouds around the region this month. https://www.weather.gov/owp/hdsc_aep https://www.weather.gov/media/owp/oh/hdsc/docs/202307_WestPointNY.pdf

I used dense rank sorting for temperature to compile the top 10. So I came up with 28 months in NYC since 2015 making the top 10 warmest temperatures. This is slightly behind Poughkeepsie which has 35 top 10 warmest months since 2015. My guess is that the tree growth over the NYC ASOS is artificially cooling site. So NYC would probably have closer to POU if the trees were kept at a standard distance from the ASOS like all other sites. Newark is similar to POU also. ………NYC…POU….Top 10 warmest months since 2015 JAN……1…….2 FEB……4……5 MAR…..2……3 APR…..3…….3 MAY….2…….3 JUN….1…….1 JUL….2……5 AUG….4…..5 SEP….2……2 OCT….2…..2 NOV….3….2 DEC…..2….2 NYC…..28 months……POU…..35 months https://www.sqlservertutorial.net/sql-server-window-functions/sql-server-dense_rank-function/

It’s possibly related to the record low Northern American snow cover back in May.

Yeah, you can go into XMACIS2 and run all the top 10 warmest and coldest months at stations around the area. It comes out to something like 1 top 10 coldest temperature month since January 2015 to around 30 top 10 warmest months. Different stations are a little over or under. Each month of the year has had 2-3 top 10 warmest months. This gets multiplied by 12. http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

These underperforming SE Ridge/ WAR amplifications have become few and far between. The common denominator seems to be when we have near record rainfall in area. My guess is that the ridge usually verifies stronger around 75% or more of the time from 6-10 days out. So this is one of the few times that the models were too warm. Could also be related to the near record blocking this month.

Research Links Climate Change to Lazier Jet Stream, Leading to Extreme Weather BY COLUMBIA CLIMATE SCHOOL |JULY 14, 2023 Comments Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper atmosphere, typically occurring around 30,000 feet, and blowing west to east. Their normal flows lead to week-to-week weather variations, modulated in the mid-latitudes by ridges and troughs in the jet stream. A high-pressure ridge, for example, produces clear, warmer weather conditions; a trough is typically followed by stormy conditions. Together, these form waves in the jet stream that can stall as the waves grow and become more amplified, causing “stuck” weather patterns that produce longer storms and heat waves. New research published in Nature Communications describes observations linking increased warming at high latitudes and the ever-decreasing snow cover in North America to these stalls in atmospheric circulation. “These persistent and extreme conditions are thought to be increasing in the future as a result of this increased waviness in the jet stream.” said the study’s lead author Jonathon Preece, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Georgia. High-pressure ridge over Texas, 2018. (Weatherbell) Since 2000, frequent “stuck” weather patterns have produced heat waves over Greenland, resulting in exceptional melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. In contrast to these observations, global climate models actually project a slight decrease in the blocked patterns over Greenland and, consequently, the models have underrepresented the contribution of meltwater runoff from the ice sheet to global sea level rise. “These patterns have been consistently creating pulses of melting over the Greenland ice sheet that have been accounting for a large portion of the annual melting,” said study coauthor Marco Tedesco, a professor at Columbia Climate School’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and lead principal investigator on the project. “Accounting for such an aspect is crucial for anticipating not only how much but how fast Greenland is and will be contributing to sea level rise.” “One question is whether this is a consequence of climate change that we can expect to continue in the future [that] the climate models are failing to resolve,” said Preece. “Or are the climate models correct, in which case we’d expect things to revert back to the norm and perhaps the rate of accelerated melt of the ice sheet will taper some?” The new study presents evidence of a link to climate change, both in the increases in jet-stream waviness and ever-decreasing spring North American snow cover extent, which “is impacting the atmosphere in a way that is favoring these blocked high-pressure systems over Greenland,” Preece said. Multiple studies have highlighted the discrepancy between climate models and observations. This study provides evidence of a direct connection between the observed shift in summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland and amplified warming at high latitudes. “The new study is the first that we know of that demonstrates a direct link between the observed change in summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland and diminished spring snow cover, which is something we can confidently say is a consequence of climate change,” said coauthor Thomas Mote, a geographer at the University of Georgia. Adapted from a press release by the University of Georgia. Full paper available online with no paywall. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39466-6 Abstract The exceptional atmospheric conditions that have accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss in recent decades have been repeatedly recognized as a possible dynamical response to Arctic amplification. Here, we present evidence of two potentially synergistic mechanisms linking high-latitude warming to the observed increase in Greenland blocking. Consistent with a prominent hypothesis associating Arctic amplification and persistent weather extremes, we show that the summer atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic has become wavier and link this wavier flow to more prevalent Greenland blocking. While a concomitant decline in terrestrial snow cover has likely contributed to this mechanism by further amplifying warming at high latitudes, we also show that there is a direct stationary Rossby wave response to low spring North American snow cover that enforces an anomalous anticyclone over Greenland, thus helping to anchor the ridge over Greenland in this wavier atmospheric state. Interesting timing with this new study. North America just experienced the lowest May spring snow on record this year. https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=namgnld&ui_month=5 The historic spring blocking which greatly reduced the North American snow cover during May could have lead to the extreme blocking and historic SST warmth south of Greenland in July. Which also produced the strong Greenland melt conditions this summer