bluewave

I am originally from Long Island.

Thank you. The sea breezes here remind me of the Long Island south shore. My first time living on the U.S. mainland. Avelo looks like a nice small airline

I moved up to the CT shoreline just east of Tweed airport. So KHVN is my new nearest official station. It’s a cool little airport tucked into a nice community. So I may be as close to KHVN is Rjay us to ISP. I get some nice sea breezes here right off the sound. I will keep posting in NYC Metro since the crew feels like extended family to me.

While several ENSO models are going super, the subsurface is still much less impressive than at this point in 2015 and 1997. I know it’s only a small sample size of two. But the current upper ocean heat content near +1 is much lower than the +2 values those years at this time. So not sure how we get to super status without the upper ocean heat doubling from +1 to +2. Not really seeing that yet with the trades returning and the WPAC forcing to start September. Right now looks like 1+2 may have peaked and 3, 3.4, and 4 will continue a slow but steady climb as the SST departures work west. This year could be a candidate for an early peaking event should the follow up kelvin wave activity remain as weak as it has been. Also note the lack of a WPAC cold pool which helped development in 1997 and 2016 with the very impressive WWB activity near the Dateline which has been missing this year.

Closest developing El Niño 500 mb analogs to this summer were 2014 and 2009. Notice the strong blocking near Greenland and the +PNA ridge over British Columbia. Also the trough in the Great Lakes to Northeast. But this summer was much warmer than those two years due to the record global temperatures well above 2014 and 2009.

On track for only the 9th August at LGA with no 90° days. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2023 0 9 - 2008 0 0 - 1986 0 0 - 1982 0 0 - 1972 0 0 - 1967 0 0 - 1963 0 0 - 1950 0 0 - 1946 0 0

It’s on the World Climate Service free SST page. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

It seems like the historic marine heatwave near Japan is inhibiting the PDO from going positive. The strongly negative PDO is another factor that goes against some of the more aggressive ENSO models becoming super. All 4 super El Niños since 72-73 had a neutral or plosive PDO in August. So we have the WPAC, PDO, and subsurface vastly different from all 4 past super events. But that may be too small a sample size to be definitive. We’ll see how it goes.

Pattern looking very La Niña-like to start September with strong Maritime Continent forcing despite the IOD and SOI. So the WPAC warm pool is continuing to call the shots.

It’s not having much influence suppressing the trades which are set to return after the recent WWB pattern. Even with the strong east based ongoing WWB, the Nino 1+2 region couldn’t push above +4 like it did back in 1997. This shows hat the warming I the eastern regions is getting close to its limit absent a strong kelvin wave and significant subsurface warming.

I am hoping we can have some blocking carryover into the winter like some of the other years with near record summer blocking. But it’s tough to know for sure until the winter actually starts.

The blocking verified stronger than the forecasts from last week. We need to see more of this type of model bias during the winter. 168 hr forecast verification

It just feels cooler relative to the extreme heat of recent summers. But nothing noteworthy like 2009 was. We’ll take what we can get.

Pretty close to the forecasts. The most extreme rainfall relative to annual averages remained in the deserts as expected. Death Valley had their rainiest day on record. This was equal to a full year of precipitation surpassing the record set just last summer.

Yeah, warm spots like Newark will easily fall below the 33 average number of 90° days since 2010. Today was only the 23rd day to reach 90° at Newark. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 2 5 15 8 3 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 M M 23 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 2019 0 1 4 14 4 3 1 27 2018 0 4 5 9 14 4 0 36 2017 0 3 5 9 2 3 0 22 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 2015 0 2 4 11 13 5 0 35 2014 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 15 2013 0 2 4 15 3 1 0 25 2012 0 2 6 16 7 2 0 33 2011 0 1 4 22 4 0 0 31 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54

Philly is closer to 2014 so far than 2009. Plus 2009 wasn’t as cold in Philly as it was in our area. Newark had its 2nd coldest June and July average while Philly was only 13th coolest since 1931. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 20 Missing Count 2023-08-20 75.8 0 2022-08-20 79.0 0 2021-08-20 77.4 0 2020-08-20 78.4 0 2019-08-20 78.0 0 2018-08-20 76.8 0 2017-08-20 76.9 0 2016-08-20 78.8 0 2015-08-20 77.7 0 2014-08-20 75.9 0 2013-08-20 76.7 0 2012-08-20 78.0 0 2011-08-20 78.6 0 2010-08-20 80.1 0 2009-08-20 74.8 0

Coolest since 2017 and 2014 in NYC and 2018 and 2019 at Newark. That 2009 summer is a tough act to follow. 2009 was also the last time Newark had back to back top 10 coolest June and July. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2023 74.8 11 2022 76.7 0 2021 75.9 0 2020 76.9 0 2019 75.6 0 2018 75.8 0 2017 74.3 0 2016 76.7 0 2015 76.3 0 2014 74.4 0 2013 75.7 0 2012 75.5 0 2011 75.9 0 2010 77.8 0 2009 72.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2023 76.4 11 2022 79.2 0 2021 78.3 0 2020 77.6 0 2019 76.5 0 2018 76.5 0 2017 74.7 0 2016 77.6 0 2015 76.6 0 2014 74.8 0 2013 76.3 0 2012 76.9 0 2011 78.0 0 2010 78.7 0 2009 73.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1958 67.5 0 2 1947 67.8 0 3 1982 67.9 0 4 1940 68.5 0 5 1972 68.8 0 6 2009 68.9 0 - 1955 68.9 0 7 1936 69.1 0 8 1935 69.2 0 9 2003 69.3 0 - 1985 69.3 0 - 1979 69.3 0 10 1948 69.4 0 - 1946 69.4 0 - 1932 69.4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1956 73.1 0 2 2000 73.7 0 3 1996 73.8 0 - 1962 73.8 0 - 1933 73.8 0 4 2001 74.1 0 - 1945 74.1 0 5 1969 74.2 0 - 1967 74.2 0 6 2009 74.3 0 7 1940 74.5 0 8 1932 74.7 0 9 1939 74.8 0 10 1976 74.9 0 - 1960 74.9 0 - 1946 74.9 0 - 1936 74.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31 Missing Count 1 1940-07-31 71.5 0 2 2009-07-31 71.6 0 3 1947-07-31 71.7 0 4 1936-07-31 72.0 0 5 1932-07-31 72.1 0 6 1958-07-31 72.2 0 - 1946-07-31 72.2 0 7 1945-07-31 72.4 0 8 1956-07-31 72.5 0 - 1938-07-31 72.5 0 9 1933-07-31 72.6 0

The IOD is really only a global influence when it gets very strong like in 2019. Plus that event completely reversed during the winter with record SSTs north of Australia and a raging MJO 4-6. Need a record level IOD to move the needle much on the state of the AO. No indication at this point that an event that strong is in the cards. So the IOD may not be much of a climate driver outside of the local regional influence in that part of the world.

The IOD influence is pretty far west of the main WPAC warm pool from the Dateline back to north of Australia. Notice the vast expanse of +30C SSTs in that region. So Nino 4 is currently the warmest of the ENSO regions. This is where the forcing has been focusing all summer. The subsurface in the Nino 3 and 1+2 areas has been getting less over the summer. So there isn’t much warming left in the pipeline beyond the current levels absent another kelvin wave for the eastern regions. But there is a lag in 3.4 which can run up further following the eventual 1+2 peak. So 3.4 usually peaks after. Need a new kelvin wave to warm the subsurface since it’s dipping to around 0.9 which isn’t in line with past super events. Those were going +1.5 to +2.0 or higher during the past super events since 1980 from August into September. So need a steady rise in upper ocean heat in order for some of the stronger model forecast for 3.4 to verify. We’ll see if we finally get some stronger WWBs in the CPAC leading to a new kelvin wave and upper ocean heat increase going into the fall. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml

Nino 1+2 can be very noisy since it’s such a small geographic area. But the subsurface has been gradually cooling over the summer from the Dateline to the South American coast. None of the super El Niño’s showed a decline in upper ocean heat content to near +1.00 from June into August. But we only have a small sample size of 3 years since the data became available in 1979. The El Niño experts on twitter haven’t mentioned much about these declining values. They mostly are talking about what the models show in regard to the SSTs. But we know how the models have had errors with their forecasts even from late summer into early fall. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

It was only in reference to the Topeka sounding which set a new record for that upper air station. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TOP&issuedby=TOP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Our H5 height yesterday evening was 603 dm, the highest legitimate value ever observed in a sounding here at TOP.)

Areas to our north will have only the 2nd time on record with the warmest temperature of the year occurring in April. There were a few ties. But our area didn’t get warm enough back in April to pull it off. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for Hartford Area, CT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Season 2023 96 88 94 93 88 M 96 1976 96 86 93 92 93 88 96 2002 95 87 94 98 99 91 99 2009 94 89 86 88 94 84 94 1990 94 81 91 95 93 87 95 1962 94 94 91 94 90 86 94 Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Season 2002 97 90 96 100 100 91 100 1990 94 83 92 98 93 91 98 2023 93 90 91 96 90 M 96 2009 93 87 89 91 95 86 95 1976 93 83 93 91 93 89 93

New record with plenty of flooding.