bluewave

The West Pacific warm pool is also the warmest that it has ever been this time of year.

We have discovered a negative feedback for Arctic sea ice loss that was unknown back in the historic 2007-2012 decline era. Most observers in 2012 thought that the record set that season would probably be eclipsed within several years. But the rapid rebound in 2013 and 2014 began to change that idea. A paper came out in 2013 that showed the much thinner ice would lead to slower rates of extent decline in the near future. A study below published last year builds in this understanding. So given these findings, it’s no surprise that the 2022 melt season so far looks pretty average for the last decade with nothing close to the rates of loss seen in 2012. Recent Slowdown in the Decline of Arctic Sea Ice Volume Under Increasingly Warm Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions Jinlun Zhang First published: 25 August 2021 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL094780 4 Concluding Remarks PIOMAS shows a significant decline of Arctic SIV over much of the period 1979–2020, in line with previous studies (e.g., Kwok & Rothrock, 2009; Lindsay & Schweiger, 2015). However, it also shows that the Arctic SIV decline is slowing down during 2007–2020, which is in line with CS2 observations of largely stabilized Arctic SIV over 2011–2020. The slowdown of Arctic SIV decline occurs despite increasingly warm SAT and UOT. The reason for the slowdown of the SIV decline is because of a change in ice mass balance such that the decrease in ice export at the open boundaries of the Arctic exceeds the decrease in net ice production inside the Arctic. The magnitude of ice export depends on SIV or thickness and ice motion. The relatively strong decrease in ice export in 2007–2020 is attributed mainly to two factors: (a) Ice is thinning inside the Arctic Ocean and therefore less available for export. (b) The increase in ice speed is lower than the decrease in SIV or thickness and unable to drive more ice out of the Arctic (Zhang et al., 2012). Thus, the behavior of ice export at a time of SIV decline serves as a negative feedback to retard the decline. The relatively weak decrease in net ice production in 2007–2020 is because of a strong increase in ice growth in fall and winter, which compensates for some of the ice loss in summer due to elevated ice melt associated with ice-albedo feedback. The strong increase in ice growth is attributed mainly to three factors: (a) Thinner and less compact ice has much higher growth rates than thicker ice under freezing conditions. (b) There is an increase in dynamic open water creation due to enhanced ice divergence and shear deformation as a thinner ice cover is more mobile and easier to deform. (c) There is a decrease in surface net longwave radiation in fall and winter because of an increase in surface temperature that promotes upward longwave radiation. Open water creation is closely correlated with ice growth in much of the Arctic, particularly in the Canada Basin where the correlation is often above R = 0.8. By increasing the area of open water, the open water creation process helps to boost ice growth in fall and winter in 2007–2020. The behavior in ice growth at a time of SIV decline, aided by increased open water creation induced by increased ice motion and deformation, serves as a negative feedback to retard the decline, and therefore plays a role in the slowdown of the Arctic SIV decline during 2007–2020 under increasingly warm atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Here, 2007 is selected as a starting year to examine the slowdown of the Arctic SIV in recent years. This is based on the consideration that 2007 saw a record low summer ice extent at that time, before a new record set in 2012. Nevertheless, the selection is somewhat arbitrary, and one can certainly select a different starting year for analysis. However, moderately shifting the starting year away from 2007 (e.g., 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2009) would not fundamentally change this model study's conclusions that a slowdown of the Arctic SIV decline has occurred in recent years. Note that the model simulated Arctic SIV drops from 1979 to a local minimum in 1982 and then peaks in 1987 (Figure 2a). There is no significant trend in SIV during the period 1979–1987. While there is no significant trend in SIV either during the period 2007–2020, the later period differs from the early period 1979–1987 in two key aspects: (a) SIV in 2007–2020 is much lower than in 1979–1987, and (b) SAT and UOT are climbing increasingly higher in 2007–2020, while dropping in 1979–1987. The thinner ice cover during 2007–2020 leads the ice export and growth processes to play a role in serving as a negative feedback to slow down the SIV decline, which is not seen in 1979–1987. It is expected that such a role may become more prominent in the future. In other words, the slowdown of the Arctic SIV decline may continue for some time in the future unless a stronger Arctic warming than the present would occur. Whether it is true remains to be seen through enhanced observations and modeling.

The Euro seasonal issued back on June 5th is doing a pretty good job so far for July. Notice the main theme was the ridge remaining to our west since June. It will be interesting to see what it comes up with for August when the forecast is updated tomorrow. We will also get a hint of how the fall pattern and La Niña could progress. July forecast issued on June 5th Current forecast for the next 2 weeks

It’s turning out to be a west of the Hudson summer for heat so far. Most spots east of the Hudson still haven’t had an official heatwave yet. Very strong onshore flow influence with all the blocking and high pressure to the north.

The -IOD is on steroids with all-time record heat in Japan and record rain and flooding in Australia.

At least for our local region, the persistent La Niña background state since the super El Niño Has been taking a break during the first half of the summer. The blocking pattern has been weakening the warm pool to our east. So the record SSTs off the East Coast have cooled while the Canadian Maritimes have warmed. The SE Ridge or WAR pattern has been on hiatus since late May when we had the record heat on May 31st.

The blocking is preventing the extreme heat in those areas from coming north like it did in 2011.

Hopefully, some of this blocking can carryover to next winter. We really could have used it last winter with the progressive storm tracks. So it continues to look like July 1st will be the hottest day for a while.

600 DM heat dome forecast for the West exactly where they don’t need it.

Today makes 5 out of 6 Saturdays during the 2020s with measurable rain on the Memorial Day and July 4 weekends. 5-23-20….rain 7-4-20……no rain 5-29-21…..rain 7-3-21……rain 5-28-22….rain 7-2-22……rain

Could start to see flooding in the locations that get the best training.

2nd round of thunderstorms in progress across Long Island following the storms earlier today. So the higher dewpoints and sea breeze boundaries east of NYC are doing their job.

Highest dewpoints of the year so far on Long Island. Farmingdale PTSUNNY 83 73 72 SW10 29.92S MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 82 74 76 S10 29.92S

Essex County NJ around Newark and Queens County NY are the warmest parts of our region. Both locations are built up urban areas. They can get downslope flow which adds to the heat. Harrison and Newark airport have the most #1s. But Corona Queens tied Newark last year for the annual max at 103°. Since the NYC micronet is new, we don’t know how many years Queens would have tied or beat the area around Newark. OKX Forecast zones warmest annual temperatures since 2010 Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 Corona Queens 103 Data for January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NY MATTITUCK COOP 98 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 97 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 97 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 97 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 97 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 97 Data for January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2019 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ HARRISON COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 99 Data for January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ HARRISON COOP 101 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 101 NY WEST POINT COOP 99 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 99 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 99 Data for January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2017 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 98 NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 98 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 98 Data for January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2016 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100 NJ HARRISON COOP 100 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 100 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 99 Data for January 1, 2015 through December 31, 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100 NJ HARRISON COOP 99 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 Data for January 1, 2014 through December 31, 2014 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NJ HARRISON COOP 95 Data for January 1, 2013 through December 31, 2013 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ HARRISON COOP 102 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 Data for January 1, 2012 through December 31, 2012 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 103 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 103 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 102 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 101 Data for January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 104 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 104 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 106 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106

Harrison and Hoboken topped out at 97°.The industrial area around the airport is usually the hottest part of the region on a SW to W downslope flow. Brooklyn and Queens were slightly cooler due to the very strong onshore flow east of NYC. Newark Internation Observation Time: 07/02/22 @ 09:35 EDT 13:35 UTC Elevation: 16 ft OK Weather Conditions Temperature: 84 °F Dew Point: 72 °F Humidity: 66 % Wind: WSW at 8 MPH 24 Hour Max/Min Events Max Temperature: 99 °F Min Temperature: 79 °F Max RH: 74.19 % Min RH: 23.92 % Max Dew Point: 72 °F Min Dew Point: 55 °F Max Gust: 44 MPH HSNN4 Harrison Observation Time: 07/02/22 @ 09:30 EDT 13:30 UTC Elevation: 23 ft OK Weather Conditions Temperature: 82 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 74 % Peak Gust: 3 MPH 24 Hour Max/Min Events Max Temperature: 97 °F Min Temperature: 78 °F Max RH: 82 % Min RH: 33 % Max Dew Point: 74 °F Min Dew Point: 63 °F Max Gust: 10 MPH FW1417 Hoboken Observation Time: 07/02/22 @ 09:37 EDT 13:37 UTC Elevation: 13 ft OK Weather Conditions Temperature: 83 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 71 % Wind: S at 1 MPH Peak Gust: 7 MPH 24 Hour Max/Min Events Max Temperature: 97 °F Min Temperature: 78 °F Max RH: 79 % Min RH: 33 % Max Dew Point: 73 °F Min Dew Point: 62 °F Max Gust: 21 MPH Astoria 96 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 96

Several other spots around Philly have hit 100° in recent years. Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 100 Data for January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2019 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 101 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 100 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 100 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 100 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 Data for January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 101 NJ ATSION COOP 101 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 100 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 100 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 100

We don’t rally have any analogs for so much water vapor injected into the stratosphere. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381 Following the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, several trace gases measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) displayed anomalous stratospheric values. Trajectories and radiance simulations confirm that the H2O, SO2, and HCl enhancements were injected by the eruption. In comparison with those from previous eruptions, the SO2 and HCl mass injections were unexceptional, although they reached higher altitudes. In contrast, the H2O injection was unprecedented in both magnitude (far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year MLS record) and altitude (penetrating into the mesosphere). We estimate the mass of H2O injected into the stratosphere to be 146 ± 5 Tg, or ∼10% of the stratospheric burden. It may take several years for the H2O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H2O. Key Points Following the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measured enhancements of stratospheric H2O, SO2, and HCl The mass of SO2 and HCl injected is comparable to that from prior eruptions, whereas the magnitude of the H2O injection is unprecedented Excess stratospheric H2O will persist for years, could affect stratospheric chemistry and dynamics, and may lead to surface warming The violent Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption on 15 January 2022 not only injected ash into the stratosphere but also large amounts of water vapor, breaking all records for direct injection of water vapor, by a volcano or otherwise, in the satellite era. This is not surprising since the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai caldera was formerly situated 150 m below sea level. The massive blast injected water vapor up to altitudes as high as 53 km. Using measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder on NASA's Aura satellite, we estimate that the excess water vapor is equivalent to around 10% of the amount of water vapor typically residing in the stratosphere. Unlike previous strong eruptions, this event may not cool the surface, but rather it could potentially warm the surface due to the excess water vapor.

Yeah, the all-time highs set back in 2010 and 2011 have been tough to challenge. My guess is that it has been too wet since then to reach those levels. Drought feedback is very important for all-time highs. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 104 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 104 CT DANBURY COOP 104 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 103 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 103 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 102 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 102 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 102 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 102 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 101 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 101 NY BRONX COOP 101 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 101 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 100 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 100 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 100 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 100 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 100 CT BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL COOP 100

Highs around the region today… ALB….95° POU…94° EWR….99° Harrison…97° Hoboken…97° LGA….93° NYC….91°

Yeah, models don’t do very well with ENSO forecasts for the following winter this early. The main thing that everyone is interested in is whether there will be blocking or not. That is usually unknown until the winter starts.

Harrison is catching up and is 97° now. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=C1099&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL 15:45 97.0

It’s driven by the differential heating between the land and the water. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/138/6/2009mwr3231.1.xml 5. Summary and conclusions High-resolution observations and model simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used to understand the structural evolution, dynamics, and climatology of a low-level jet over the coastal waters of the New York Bight (NYB) region. A 1997–2006 climatology of the jet using hourly data from a tower (ALSN6) and a buoy (44025) in the NYB shows that the jet is most common during the warm season (June–July peak), with a skew in the monthly distribution toward spring, since the jet is driven by the differential heating between land and water. About 28% of the events have winds greater than 13 m s−1 (25 kt), which meets or exceeds the small craft advisory wind conditions for the National Weather Service. The wind directions for the jet trace out an elliptical orbit for the 24-h period around the jet maximum, which is at 2300 UTC (1800 LST) on average. In addition to the inertial forces, there is also an increasing west-northwest–east-southeast-directed pressure gradient that peaks 1–3 h before the time of maximum southerly wind. This 1–3-h delay is qualitatively consistent with geostrophic adjustment. Spatial composites reveal that the NYB jet occurs when there is large-scale southwesterly flow around a Bermuda high and a short-wave ridge along the East Coast. The composites also illustrate that the

Unusually strong Ambrose Jet today near the South Shore beaches. Models have 30 to 40 mph gusts. So plenty of blowing sand for people trying to escape the heat further to the west today. Watch out for dangerous rip currents.

July 1st looks like it will be our warmest day for a while. The ridge pulls back to the west again from the 5th to at least the 11th. So still no sign of the ridge locking in near the Northeast like we have seen in recent summers.

The rate of June warming in our area has been slower than December. The strongest heat in the Plains this month matches the trend. We can also see less cooling in the Northeast and Northwest. But last June was a big outlier.