bluewave

The old Central Park station when it wasn’t under a tree through the 1980s was usually warmer than LGA and sometimes EWR. Makes sense since Central Park is further from the water than LGA and EWR. The July of 1977 heatwave wouldn’t be as big a story had the Central Park equipment been under a tree like it is today. No chance these days anymore of multiple 100s and highs warmer than Newark or LGA. Repeat that July 1977 heatwave today and there would probably be no 100s at Central Park. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 93 73 1977-07-14 92 73 1977-07-15 96 72 1977-07-16 98 75 1977-07-17 97 78 1977-07-18 100 78 1977-07-19 102 78 1977-07-20 92 75 1977-07-21 104 78 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 92 73 1977-07-14 91 73 1977-07-15 93 71 1977-07-16 97 72 1977-07-17 99 77 1977-07-18 98 75 1977-07-19 100 78 1977-07-20 90 75 1977-07-21 102 78 Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 92 72 1977-07-14 89 72 1977-07-15 90 69 1977-07-16 96 72 1977-07-17 95 74 1977-07-18 95 76 1977-07-19 99 75 1977-07-20 90 74 1977-07-21 99 78

The airports were actually cooler this week due to the influence of the sea breezes. The ASOS units at the airports are located on grassy strips. Many of ours are close to water like EWR,LGA, and JFK. But some would say how about the tarmac and all that concrete? Well the sensors are probably placed similarly to a backyard Wunderground station in any of those airport neighborhoods. Heck, there may even be more grass than around the average residents houses in those neighborhoods. The neighborhoods contain miles and miles of paved driveways, sidewalks, and streets. So the airport represents the same land use as the local residential neighborhoods with probably more grass.

That’s really the point when we now see from the NYC micronet how upper 90s was the norm for maxes during this heatwave in the densely packed neighborhoods around Brooklyn and Queens. So letting the Central Park ASOS OBS drift so far from reality with the tree growth doesn’t really make any sense. These urban inner city neighborhoods were hotter than Newark this week. The UHI in Queens is much stronger than Newark with 2 days not dropping below 80°. Cornoa, Queens at ground level. 9/8…92/75 9/7….98/81 9/6….96/80 9/5….94/78 9/4…..90/77 9/3…..93/69

I get it that there are many who would like to go back to our cooler climate of days past. I am not a big fan of so much warmth either. But we can clearly see that Newark and urban NE NJ is right in line with the regionally top 5 warmest start to September.

The record -PDO from the fall into winter 21-22 was no match for the WPAC warm pool forcing west of the Dateline which resulted in a strong January +PNA and record snows on Long Island. So more and more the WPAC is having a much greater influence on our climate than the ENSO regions further east. Forcing just west to the Dateline is a fantastic winter pattern for us. But a little further west near Indonesia gives us record warmth. Unfortunately, the MJO 4-6 forcing near Indonesia is occupying more time during our winters since 15-16 than the 7-8 region west of Dateline which was dominant in 14-15.

Not that I am suggesting a repeat of December 2015, but the long range guidance was pretty bad even into late November on the position of the Aleutian low for December. So not surprised that an important detail like a strong MJO 4-6 even during that super El Niño wasn’t well forecast very far in advance. But at least the more traditional blocky version of the El Niño emerged in January and February to save the winter. Late November forecasts typical El Niño +PNA for December MJO 4-6 gave us the worst La Niña-like December pattern in history despite a super El Nino

An 80° first week of September is pretty impressive. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 7 Missing Count 1 1973-09-07 83.1 0 2 1961-09-07 82.4 0 3 1953-09-07 81.4 0 4 2018-09-07 81.1 0 5 2023-09-07 80.2 0

The only decent winter since 18-19 was 20-21. We got a break in the persistent Niña background state to allow a strong enough +PNA -AO. Luckily, when the PNA flipped negative, the trough stayed stuck in place near the East from the earlier pattern. So if this El Niño continues to have trouble coupling, then we’ll need some decent +PNA -AO intervals to have a better winter outcome. Still very early so it’s possible. We’ll see what other hints we get as the fall progresses. The bar for a good winter is set pretty low this year after last winter.

Anything under +1 could iffy. But it’s still too early to know what the peak figures will be.

Just not sure if a MEI or RONI that low in this new era would even allow the El Niño to couple? That was the same range we were in back in 18-19 and look what happened. So we would need to rely getting strong enough -AO or -NAO to try and mute the persistent Niña background state. But we really need to see where these ENSO readings go and if we can couple the next few months to know what we may be dealing with pattern wise during the winter.

This is the 2nd highest September dew point reading on record at 78° here at KHVN. You can really feel it when you go outside. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=CT_ASOS&zstation=HVN&var=max_dwpf&w=all&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=sep&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

A large portion of the Atlantic Basin had their warmest ERSST August SSTs on record helping to boost the global SST record even higher.

I get the same charts referenced in the most recent CPC update.

No doubt. But based on the other other 5 most positive Dec-Mar +NAO seasons, the collective snowfall average in Boston was only around 16”. Includes 2020,2012, 2000, 1995, and 1989. So it just goes to show the power of that historic -EPO+PNA block. Things were just a little too progressive with the record +NAO for places around NYC to challenge their max around 75”. But 50” was a nice consolation prize even though the big one went a little too far to the east to cash in on the jackpot.

Newark would have made an easy 99° without the sea breeze especially when Queens made it 98° away from the water.

We are seeing the results of those record SSTs.

The Euro did a nice job with the 98-100° peak heat in NJ. This is one of those rare times it was correct about the highest temperatures staying west of Newark. So the sensors close to the bay make it susceptible to sea breezes when interior sections can get warmer. Queens away from the sea breeze also made it to 98°. But the ASOS at LGA is right on the water so they were 2° cooler than Corona to the south which made it to 98°. https://www.njweather.org/data/daily/455 ▼ Fort Dix NJ 2023-09-07 USFS 100 71 Monthly Data for September 2023 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 99 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 98 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 97 Newark Area ThreadEx 97 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 97 ESTELL MANOR COOP 97 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 97 http://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Corona 98 Monthly Data for September 2023 for New York Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 96

It made up for the NYC area model error in January 2015 when the low went too far to the east. The later portion of January has become a good period for KU events since January 2011. So that has been a reliable period to forecast a big snowfall event.The funny thing about the 14-15 seasonal forecasts was some of the calls had a record -NAO based on fall Siberian snow cover. But we got a record +NAO. The plot twist was that the Boston area set their new snowfall record. Again, another striking event which would have gotten laughed at if presented on a fall snowfall forecast with record +NAO and record snowfall in the same sentence. That’s what I mean about the uniqueness of all the winter patterns since 09-10. Roughly 2 week snowfall periods since 2010 and the number of 12"+ snowstorms in NYC Metro forecast zones. Oct 29-Nov 15.....3 Nov 16-Nov 30....0 Dec 1- Dec 15.....0 Dec 16-Dec 31....3 Jan1-Jan 15.......4 Jan16-Jan 31.....6 Feb 1-Feb 15.....7 Feb 16-Feb 28...1 Mar 1- Mar 15....6 Mar 16-Mar 31...1 Apr 1-Apr 16.....0

Too much SE flow for places like Newark to get closer to 100. Probably a 98 to 99 with more SW flow since the Mount Holly NWS office got so warm.

I have gained more benefit from observing where the model analysis and forecasts have been off and extrapolating how that could impact winter forecast going forward. But that isn’t something that a model without AI will be able to show you. I have been able to identify some seasonal drivers based on the fall patterns. But this has mostly been a function of the general warmer winter pattern composites since the 15-16 super El Niño. The really good stuff like the January into February 2016 near record KB block and blizzard pattern really didn’t become evident until we got past the +13 December. So you couldn’t put together a winter forecast that fall that saying you expected +13 December followed by the the biggest NYC snowstorm on record and first below 0 reading since 1994. Likewise for going 80° in February 2018 and then record March snows to follow. Same goes for the +PNA in the 20-21 winter despite the strong- PDO reading. And the even more striking Jan 22 +PNA against the record low -PDO pattern. This list can go on and on even back to the 09-10 winter with the extreme shifts from winter to winter some years and stuck warm patterns since 15-16. And laughable abrupt shifts within the same winter into early spring.

I am not a big fan of using any of these ENSO or seasonal forecasts. I believe the last correct seasonal forecast was 13-14 from the JMA? That record NE PAC ridge must have been easy to spot for some reason in the model forecast from the early fall. These long range model forecasts beyond 15 days are to some extent just versions of the 384hr gfs snowstorms in winter. Maybe AI will finally allow the models to do a correct seasonal forecast.

The effects will be enhanced closer to the farming areas and reduced somewhat in the more urban spots away from agriculture. My main opening post mentioned the declining highs and rising lows right at the farms. But this general pattern exists to some extent throughout the region. New research finds that irrigated farms within Wisconsin’s vegetable-growing Central Sands region significantly cool the local climate compared to nearby rain-fed farms or forests. Irrigation dropped maximum temperatures by one to three degrees Fahrenheit on average while increasing minimum temperatures up to four degrees compared to unirrigated farms or forests. In all, irrigated farms experienced a three- to seven-degree smaller range in daily temperatures compared to other land uses. These effects persisted throughout the year.

What isn’t to buy? Omaha has had unchanged summer high temperatures since the rapid expansion of corn production from 1961-1990 to 1991-2020 at 85.3. Remember that is only one point the map. Numerous higher order sites in the NCDC network have actually seen a small drop in temperature. Any increase in average temperatures is a result of rising minimums which is due to the corn producing higher dew points. Monthly Mean Max Temperature for Omaha Area, NE (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Aug Season Mean 83.7 87.3 85.0 85.3 2020 89.2 89.6 88.6 89.1 2019 83.5 87.3 83.7 84.8 2018 87.6 87.5 86.0 87.0 2017 88.2 90.5 83.1 87.3 2016 90.6 87.1 85.9 87.9 2015 83.4 86.9 82.9 84.4 2014 83.4 84.3 83.8 83.8 2013 81.6 86.9 87.2 85.2 2012 87.1 96.9 88.2 90.7 2011 82.5 90.1 84.9 85.8 2010 84.4 87.3 89.2 87.0 2009 81.6 81.7 81.9 81.7 2008 82.3 87.2 87.6 85.7 2007 83.7 89.6 87.7 87.0 2006 86.9 91.5 83.9 87.4 2005 85.9 90.9 85.5 87.4 2004 78.8 82.1 80.3 80.4 2003 79.7 89.5 89.7 86.3 2002 88.4 91.5 85.2 88.4 2001 82.2 88.5 86.8 85.8 2000 82.0 84.0 87.0 84.3 1999 80.2 90.4 82.8 84.5 1998 79.4 85.5 84.9 83.3 1997 85.7 87.3 83.2 85.4 1996 83.7 82.9 82.2 82.9 1995 82.4 91.9 90.2 88.2 1994 84.0 84.2 84.0 84.1 1993 78.5 81.5 82.7 80.9 1992 79.3 78.5 77.9 78.6 1991 83.7 85.4 84.2 84.4 Monthly Mean Max Temperature for Omaha Area, NE (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Aug Season Mean 83.4 87.6 84.9 85.3 1990 83.3 83.7 84.9 84.0 1989 80.2 87.0 84.5 83.9 1988 88.2 86.3 88.8 87.8 1987 85.2 88.9 79.6 84.6 1986 84.4 87.1 78.7 83.4 1985 79.1 85.8 80.0 81.6 1984 81.7 86.8 88.2 85.6 1983 79.4 89.8 92.0 87.1 1982 76.2 86.5 80.3 81.0 1981 84.9 85.7 80.5 83.7 1980 82.9 89.7 86.2 86.3 1979 81.9 82.8 83.6 82.8 1978 83.2 84.6 84.5 84.1 1977 83.6 89.7 80.4 84.6 1976 86.4 90.9 90.1 89.1 1975 83.9 92.1 92.0 89.3 1974 83.7 97.1 82.0 87.6 1973 86.2 85.6 89.2 87.0 1972 85.2 84.0 83.8 84.3 1971 89.7 85.6 86.7 87.3 1970 86.0 89.3 87.8 87.7 1969 79.0 87.5 86.2 84.2 1968 86.0 87.3 85.0 86.1 1967 80.8 86.2 84.0 83.7 1966 83.2 88.9 82.3 84.8 1965 81.7 85.3 86.1 84.4 1964 83.0 91.0 82.0 85.3 1963 86.8 88.8 85.0 86.9 1962 82.3 85.6 85.9 84.6 1961 82.7 87.5 85.5 85.2

MEI still ENSO neutral at +0.4 on the latest update. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

We can use the 90°day data from 1970 to 1983 when the Central Park thermometer wasn’t under the trees.The comparison is to the much warmer present era from 2010-2023 with tree growth impeding accurate observations. There is no reason other than tree growth for NYC to have the number of 90° days reamain at 19 with how much the climate has warmed since then. Both LGA and EWR show a significant increase in 90° days as the climate has warmed. The Hudson Valley shows the same trend as LGA and EWR. POU has nearly doubled its number of 90° days. Again, there is no reason for POU to have more 90° days now than NYC. So using a proportional 90° day increase similar to EWR, they would most likely have an around 30 days a year reaching 90° instead of 19 if the site was properly maintained. This would mean the Great Lawn probably sees that # of 90° days since it isn’t in the shade. But an increase similar to LGA and POU would place that number even higher. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 1 2 8 6 2 0 19 1983 0 0 6 14 9 7 0 36 1982 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 11 1981 0 0 2 10 4 0 0 16 1980 0 2 1 11 15 3 0 32 1979 0 2 0 7 8 1 0 18 1978 0 1 2 3 5 0 0 11 1977 1 2 0 11 7 2 0 23 1976 3 0 6 2 4 0 0 15 1975 0 1 1 2 4 0 0 8 1974 0 1 1 10 5 0 0 17 1973 0 0 4 4 6 4 0 18 1972 0 0 0 11 3 1 0 15 1971 0 0 5 6 5 2 0 18 1970 0 2 1 4 8 7 0 22 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 1 3 9 5 2 0 19 2023 2 0 1 5 0 2 M 10 2022 0 2 1 10 11 1 0 25 2021 0 0 8 4 5 0 0 17 2020 0 0 2 14 4 0 0 20 2019 0 0 1 10 3 0 1 15 2018 0 2 3 6 7 3 0 21 2017 0 3 3 5 1 1 0 13 2016 0 2 0 10 7 3 0 22 2015 0 0 1 5 8 6 0 20 2014 0 0 0 3 3 2 0 8 2013 0 2 3 10 1 1 0 17 2012 0 0 5 10 3 1 0 19 2011 0 0 3 14 3 0 0 20 2010 1 1 4 16 12 3 0 37 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 1 2 6 4 2 0 14 1983 0 0 5 11 8 7 0 31 1982 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 6 1981 0 0 2 11 2 0 0 15 1980 0 0 3 8 9 2 0 22 1979 0 2 0 7 7 0 0 16 1978 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 4 1977 0 1 0 9 3 1 0 14 1976 1 0 5 1 3 0 0 10 1975 0 1 1 2 3 0 0 7 1974 0 1 1 9 2 0 0 13 1973 0 0 3 3 7 4 0 17 1972 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 4 1971 0 0 3 3 2 1 0 9 1970 0 2 1 5 9 5 0 22 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 1 4 12 7 2 0 26 2023 0 0 1 10 0 3 M 14 2022 0 3 3 11 13 0 0 30 2021 0 0 9 8 8 0 0 25 2020 0 0 5 19 10 0 0 34 2019 0 0 4 14 5 2 1 26 2018 0 4 4 10 16 4 0 38 2017 0 3 3 8 2 1 0 17 2016 0 3 1 15 10 3 0 32 2015 0 0 3 6 8 3 0 20 2014 0 0 0 3 1 2 0 6 2013 0 2 2 15 1 1 0 21 2012 0 2 6 14 6 0 0 28 2011 0 0 3 14 2 0 0 19 2010 1 2 12 18 11 4 0 48 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 1 3 9 6 2 0 22 1983 0 0 7 15 11 7 0 40 1982 0 0 1 10 1 0 0 12 1981 0 1 4 12 3 1 0 21 1980 0 1 3 8 12 3 0 27 1979 0 2 1 8 9 0 0 20 1978 0 1 3 8 4 0 0 16 1977 1 3 1 14 6 1 0 26 1976 2 0 7 2 4 0 0 15 1975 0 1 3 3 5 0 0 12 1974 1 2 2 10 3 0 0 18 1973 0 0 5 9 12 5 0 31 1972 0 0 0 16 4 1 0 21 1971 0 0 6 7 7 2 0 22 1970 0 2 2 5 8 5 0 22 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 2 5 15 8 3 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 4 M 27 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 2019 0 1 4 14 4 3 1 27 2018 0 4 5 9 14 4 0 36 2017 0 3 5 9 2 3 0 22 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 2015 0 2 4 11 13 5 0 35 2014 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 15 2013 0 2 4 15 3 1 0 25 2012 0 2 6 16 7 2 0 33 2011 0 1 4 22 4 0 0 31 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 1 1 6 3 1 0 12 1983 0 0 4 11 7 6 0 28 1982 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 10 1981 0 1 1 5 1 0 0 8 1980 0 0 3 6 6 3 0 18 1979 0 2 0 4 5 0 0 11 1978 0 0 1 4 3 0 0 8 1977 0 2 0 12 3 1 0 18 1976 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 1975 0 3 3 2 3 0 0 11 1974 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 6 1973 0 0 3 4 8 4 0 19 1972 0 0 0 10 2 0 0 12 1971 0 0 2 3 1 1 0 7 1970 0 0 0 5 7 1 0 13 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 1 3 10 5 2 0 21 2023 2 0 2 7 0 1 M 12 2022 0 3 1 13 16 1 0 34 2021 0 1 9 4 6 0 0 20 2020 0 0 4 17 10 0 0 31 2019 0 0 1 12 2 1 0 16 2018 0 1 3 8 4 4 0 20 2017 0 2 4 3 1 2 0 12 2016 0 4 3 16 6 2 0 31 2015 0 0 0 5 10 6 0 21 2014 0 0 1 4 1 2 0 8 2013 0 3 4 11 0 1 0 19 2012 1 2 5 11 3 0 0 22 2011 0 0 3 10 2 0 0 15 2010 1 2 4 16 5 2 0 30