bluewave

I wonder if this is the first time that the same cutoff low caused rain on two consecutive Saturdays? May 7th May 14th

This has to be one of the longer duration cutoffs we have seen in recent years.

You know it’s an over the top warm up when Caribou gets to 90° before Newark.

It continues to looks like the period around or just after the 20th will feature the first 90s potential of the season for the local warm spots. It’s impressive how the first 90° day of the year has been steady around May 20th since 1981 at Newark. But the first 70° has moved up a month from March 27th in 1981 to near March 1st in 2021. The first 70° in late February and the early bloom this year fit the pattern also. So an earlier start to spring while summer hasn’t moved up in time. This pattern is reversed in the fall with the last 90° occurring later creating the endless summer pattern.

Getting some elevated convection south of us now.

Our highest dewpoints of the season so far. MacArthur/ISP CLOUDY 74 65 73 SE7

The most extreme heat record with this May over the top heatwave was the new May all-time high temperature of 96° at Traverse City, Michigan. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 0127 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2022 ...RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TRAVERSE CITY MI... ...DAILY RECORDS SET AT TRAVERSE CITY, GAYLORD, AND PELLSTON... YESTERDAY, CHERRY CAPITAL AIRPORT IN TRAVERSE CITY HAD A HIGH OF 96 DEGREES. THIS SETS THE ALL-TIME WARMEST TEMPERATURE IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 95 HAS BEEN REACHED FOUR TIMES PREVIOUSLY IN MAY, MOST RECENTLY ON MAY 29 2018. THIS ALSO SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR YESTERDAYS DATE, MAY 12, WHICH WAS 86 DEGREES, SET IN 1944. THIS IS ALSO THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR IN WHICH TRAVERSE CITY HAS HIT 95 DEGREES OR WARMER. THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST 95 READING WAS ON MAY 20 1977. OTHER RECORDS BROKEN YESTERDAY... THE GAYLORD REGIONAL AIRPORT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 84 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1991. THE PELLSTON AIRPORT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 87 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2004.

This Is the first time we had such a negative April anomaly following a second-year La Niña. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2022-enso-update-piece-cake At -1.1 °C, April 2022 was tied with 1950 for the strongest negative April anomaly in the 1950–present record. That’s according to ERSSTv5, our most reliable long-term sea surface temperature observationdataset. In the context of repeat La Niña events, the April average anomaly was noticeably stronger than any of the other 8 second-year La Niñas.

The main feature with a cutoff to our south is easterly flow. So we had clouds in the morning with sun in the afternoon and fog by the evening. It finally lifts north the next few days with some scattered showers as the low moves to our west. So the warm spots in NJ will see some 80s from Sunday into Monday with SW flow. Next weekend could be the first 90s of the season for the usual warm spots. We had one cooler run at 12z yesterday. But the 0z guidance is back to the warmer idea.

This is a much weaker version of the May 2020 over the top heatwave. That one produced the May all-time high of 95° at BTV while we were much cooler. So record heat directed to our NW is becoming more common with these record 500 mb ridges. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/28/montreal-record-may-heat/

Almost a week now that this cutoff has been stuck under the near record 588 dm block. So more of the same for our area. Scattered clouds and 60s near the shore today with onshore flow. Record heat potential well into the 80s over the interior Northeast.

Another one of these famous over the top warm ups that have become so common in recent years. High of 82° in BTV today with record warmth possible in the coming days. CLIMATE... Record daily high temperatures are possible on Thursday, Friday and Saturday 5/12-14. Here are the current records at our climate sites: Date KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK 5/12 84|2004 82|2004 85|2004 86|1992 83|1956 84|1911 5/13 84|1985 82|1985 77|2011 83|1992 86|1985 84|2004 5/14 86|1961 85|1961 85|2004 87|2004 84|1961 83|2004

Yeah, matches all the record high dewpoints and flash flood events in recent years.

Earliest 78° low on record for Topeka, Kansas by over 3 weeks. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 138 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2022 ...MONTHLY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT TOPEKA KS... YESTERDAY'S LOW TEMPERATURE AT TOPEKA'S BILLARD AIRPORT WAS 78 DEGREES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 10. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 75 DEGREES...SET IN 2011. THIS ALSO SETS THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 DEGREES...SET ON MAY 25, 1896...MAY 26, 2012...AND MAY 31, 2000.

This has been one of those rare times with easterly flow lasting for 2 weeks.

JFK only made it to 95° during the 1977 heatwave. We had strong sea breezes with that event along the South Shore. The SSTs were much cooler in the 1970s especially after the record breaking cold 76-77 winter. Data for January 1, 1977 through December 31, 1977 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101 NY WEST POINT COOP 101 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 101 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 100 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 100 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 100 NY SCARSDALE COOP 100 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 99 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 99 NY SUFFERN COOP 99 CT DANBURY COOP 99 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 99 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 99 CT GROTON COOP 99 NY CARMEL COOP 98 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 98 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 97 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 97 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 97 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 97 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 97 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 97 NY MINEOLA COOP 97 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 96 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 96 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 95 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 94 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 94 CT WESTBROOK COOP 93 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 93 NY MONTAUK COOP 93 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 93 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 91

The whole area has gotten much hotter. But the tree growth at NYC is masking the summer daytime warming. If anything, the LGA ASOS is too close to the water. So it’s subject to cooler breezes at times. Last summer the warmest part of NYC was in Central Queens just south of LGA. The 6-30-21 high at LGA was 100° and 102° at Corona. So that section of Queens was comparable to the area around Newark.The new micronet snapshot from early afternoon illustrated what was happening. There was a local convergence zone just north of the sea breeze front. The warmth probably was enhanced by some local downsloping off the higher moraine.

Even this NYT story from July 1977 highlights that Central Park was warmer than LGA before the tree growth. Central Park actually had the highest temperature readings during the famous July 1977 heatwave. This isn’t possible anymore with the dense vegetation around the thermometer. https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park. Much different than this more recent article in 2013. https://pix11.com/news/baked-apple-new-yorkers-sweating-through-worst-heatwave-of-the-summer/ “[The Central Park Conservancy is] almost making it like a shaded, tropical rainforest, so to speak,” said Schlacter about the weather station’s location, which is surrounded by lush, green trees, bushes and weeds that grew even thicker in the near-record rains of this past spring. “It’s keeping temperatures cooler than some of the true urban areas,” Schlacter said. A more accurate reading, according to Schlacter, “We actually like Newark Airport to represent what everybody feels in the five boroughs [and beyond].” Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 93 73 1977-07-14 92 73 1977-07-15 96 72 1977-07-16 98 75 1977-07-17 97 78 1977-07-18 100 78 1977-07-19 102 78 1977-07-20 92 75 1977-07-21 104 78 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 92 73 1977-07-14 91 73 1977-07-15 93 71 1977-07-16 97 72 1977-07-17 99 77 1977-07-18 98 75 1977-07-19 100 78 1977-07-20 90 75 1977-07-21 102 78 Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 92 72 1977-07-14 89 72 1977-07-15 90 69 1977-07-16 96 72 1977-07-17 95 74 1977-07-18 95 76 1977-07-19 99 75 1977-07-20 90 74 1977-07-21 99 78

We are getting to the point when a summer is considered cool with under 30 days reaching 90° away from the influence of the sea breeze. The 90s had numerous years with higher 90° day counts. But it also had lower count years mixed in. Very tough to get lower count years these days.

It will be interesting to see how things turn out. This is one of the strongest La Niña patterns that we have seen in May. But it’s tough to use old analogs since our summers have become much hotter since 2010.

The wildcard this summer may be how the rare continuation of the La Niña into a 3rd year plays out. We already had 4 consecutive above normal summers for warmth since 2018. Maybe we can catch a break on the heat relative to the last several years. But cooler summers have been tough to come by since 2010. Even less warm would feel cool compared to all the record summer heat since 2010.

Very comfortable spring temperatures for our area the next few weeks. The record breaking heat stays to our north and west this week. Then the trough returns next week with cooler to near seasonable temperatures. EPS May 9-16 May 16-23

It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10.

I wonder what our record is for consecutive days with an easterly component to the wind? The easterlies began back on Friday. The models all continue the easterly flow into next weekend as the cutoff gets stuck under the near record 588 dm block over New England.

You would have to ask them that question. We don’t see anyone from the Upton posting on this forum. Albany just corrected their cold bias. To the Editor: If you have been following the latest monthly temperature trends, as provided by the National Weather Service, you might have noticed that we have had five months with below normal average temperatures, and only two that have been above this year (January and March). In fact, if you go back to last year, you might have noticed a “cooling” beginning in August, as three out of the six last months of 2020 finished below normal. This was happening at the same time that many of the same months were close to record high levels worldwide. The National Weather Service issued its new 30-year climate averages in July 2021 (including the average temperature of the years 1991 to to 2020). This new set of averages indicated many of our monthly averages have warmed nearly a degree compared to the 1981-2010 averages. This would account for some of the cooler departures in recent months. A persistent trough has settled into the region for much of this time, accounting for some local cooling. However, a much bigger concern is the actual thermometer located at the Albany International Airport. In July 2020, it was discovered that it had been running a degree too warm. The sensor was replaced and it was immediately noted it was running about three degrees too low (cool). It took until mid-October 2020 for it to be replaced, but alas, the new replacement still appears to still be running at least two degrees too low. There are no signs of it being replaced anytime soon, at least before the winter. A thermometer is a basic instrument, originally measured by the response of mercury or alcohol in a tube, and can be calibrated quite accurately. The National Weather Service has a more complex one, via an instrument called Automated Surface Observing System. It is well aspirated to prevent any “solar spikes” that many homemade thermometers might have if they are not located in a north position facing away from any sun. The instrument is required to be at least five feet off the ground to avoid any excessive surface heating that can happen near asphalt and other heat-absorbing materials. The thermometer sensor is part of a complex computerized system that also records wind speed, barometric pressure, and precipitation, which is issued automatically with initially no human intervention. A weather observer or traffic controller is required to be on duty at the airport to quality control the data that is disseminated. One would think the National Weather Service, being the steward of accurate weather detail, would seek to have an accurate thermometer. We all have heard that a global average warming of just 1.5C (about 2.5F) could wreak havoc on our planet. So, if the thermometer at the Albany International Airport is measuring 2.5 degrees too low, as I believe it is, this cool bias reading might mask any significant warming. However, according to the National Weather Service from the Silver Spring headquarters, the number-one client the Automated Surface Observing System thermometer is tailored for, would be the aviation community. The National Weather Service claims it relies on many volunteers for climate data for climate information, collectively called the Cooperative Observer Program or COOP. Assuming that is the case, an accurate thermometer is just as critical to the aviation industry. If the actual temperature is 34 F, but the Automated Surface Observing System thermometer records a temperature of 32 F, the pilot might have to be concerned about freezing rain versus liquid rain, which makes a huge operational impact. Also, the National Weather Service, both locally and at the higher end, realize there is a two- to three-degree cool bias, but argue the sensor itself is not to blame. My question to them: Then what is it? So far, there has been no answer. How do we know the thermometer has such a cool bias? You might have seen our local TV meteorologists use the Pine Bush temperature readings instead of the airport for a more representative temperature. I personally have a Davis thermometer myself, and have been keeping track of high and low temperatures for years. I live in the southwestern portion of Albany, away from the city heat island. I am on top of a small hill so my overnight lows usually ran about a degree or so warmer than the airport. However, my high temperatures were usually within a degree of the airport’s temperature until July 18, 2020, the day the thermometer was changed at the airport. From that point on, with a few noted exceptions, my thermometer has been consistently running 2 to 3 degrees warmer than the airport, the same thermometer I have had for years. My thermometer’s readings are much closer to the Pine Bush’s for high temperatures, and to many of my friends’ thermometers. If you look at monthly temperatures at Pittsfield and Glens Falls, in the past months, they have been very close to the airport. In the past, both places would usually run a mean temperature (combined high and low temperature) closer to 3 degrees lower than the Albany International Airport). Perhaps the worst part of all this, is that our monthly records with this known cool bias, keep going out to the world and would suggest our climate is locally cooling, when really it is not. The folks at the local National Weather Service in Albany are not to blame. They have done all they can to inform the higher officials of the problem. I suggest you call your local Congress member and hopefully they can put pressure on the higher officials of National Weather Service to change the thermometer before further damage can be done to the climate records and have a reliable accurate temperature sensor. Hugh Johnson Albany Editor’s note: Hugh Johnson, now retired, used to work for the National Weather Service. Joe Villani, a meteorologist at the Albany office of the National Weather Service, confirmed for The Enterprise that the thermometer at the Albany International Airport is several degrees off. “We’re definitely aware of it ….,” he said. “People at National Weather Service headquarters are looking into resolving it.” Villani said it can take time to diagnose problems with equipment invented in the 1990s. It was noted in July 2020, that the thermometer was running too cool, he said, so it was replaced last October but continues to run too cool. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 752 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPLACEMENT OF THERMOMETER AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECONDITIONING CENTER (NWSRC) REPLACED THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM THERMOMETER AND ASSOCIATED ELECTRONICS AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2021 AT 9:30 AM. THE THERMOMETER WAS REPLACED WITH A MODIFIED SENSOR AND CALIBRATED WITH A MODIFIED ALIGNMENT PROCEDURE. A REFERENCE THERMOMETER, RUNNING SIDE BY SIDE WITH THE ASOS THERMOMETER, HAS COLLECTED DATA FOR COMPARISON SINCE JUNE. THE PREVIOUS THERMOMETERS INSTALLED SINCE JULY 17, 2020 LIKELY HAD A COLD BIAS (THERMOMETER RECORDS A COLDER TEMPERATURE THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE). THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE THE INVESTIGATION ON THE COLD BIAS IN THE ALBANY TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE PERIOD JULY 17, 2020 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29, 2021. PLEASE CONTACT SUSAN BUCHANAN, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 301-427-9000 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. $$ SND/MEM 000 NOUS41 KALY 301152 PNSALY MAZ001-025-NYZ039>041-047>054-058>061-082-084-021200- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 752 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPLACEMENT OF THERMOMETER AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECONDITIONING CENTER (NWSRC) REPLACED THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM THERMOMETER AND ASSOCIATED ELECTRONICS AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2021 AT 9:30 AM. THE THERMOMETER WAS REPLACED WITH A MODIFIED SENSOR AND CALIBRATED WITH A MODIFIED ALIGNMENT PROCEDURE. A REFERENCE THERMOMETER, RUNNING SIDE BY SIDE WITH THE ASOS THERMOMETER, HAS COLLECTED DATA FOR COMPARISON SINCE JUNE. THE PREVIOUS THERMOMETERS INSTALLED SINCE JULY 17, 2020 LIKELY HAD A COLD BIAS (THERMOMETER RECORDS A COLDER TEMPERATURE THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE). THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE THE INVESTIGATION ON THE COLD BIAS IN THE ALBANY TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE PERIOD JULY 17, 2020 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29, 2021. PLEASE CONTACT SUSAN BUCHANAN, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 301-427-9000 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. $$ SND/MEM