bluewave

Newark fell 1° below the warmest spots in NJ. this month so far. Data for July 1, 2023 through July 28, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 97 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 97 HARRISON COOP 97 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 Newark Area ThreadEx 96 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 95 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 95 ESTELL MANOR COOP 95 AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 95 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 95 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 95 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 94 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 94 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 94 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 94 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 94 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 94 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 94 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 93 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 93 EWING 3 WNW COOP 93 WERTSVILLE 4 NE COOP 93 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 93 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 93 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 93 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 93 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 93 CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 92 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 92

The magnitude of the historic warm minimums this month in Caribou are a good example of that. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 63.5 4 2 2020 59.9 0 3 1947 59.5 0 4 2018 59.4 0 5 2010 59.2 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 82.4 0 2 1952 82.0 0 3 2023 81.5 4 4 1959 81.4 0 5 2019 80.6 0

Another case of the warmer minimums driving the departures higher in the Northeast with the higher dewpoints.

Cedar Rapids is located in a zone of dense agriculture so the effect is well known by the locals. There is nothing wrong with the charts. Ames Iowa shows a similar steep decline since the late 1800s. You can also look at the decrease across the entire state. Des Moines also has a higher population and has a larger urbanized footprint than Cedar Rapids. https://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/special-report-iowas-changing-climate Higher humidity also has impact on temperatures during every season. In summer, average days above 95 degrees in Cedar Rapids from 1894 through 2018 fell by 12.7 days. “We don't seem to have the heat that we used to have when I started back in the 80s and the 70s,” said Weather First Chief Meteorologist Terry Swails. “A lot of temperatures, 98 to 102, that seemed like it was pretty common. It was rare if we went a summer without at least one 100-degree day. Now that's a rare event. It seems if we get 95 that's kind of a big Trend in days above 95 degrees has seen a steep decrease since the late 1800s. Statewide decrease in 95° very hot days. https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/ia/

I agree. The problem with climate change is that the scientific component gets discarded by many since they disagree with the policy remedies being presented. It’s fine to have a civil disagreement about policy since that is what Democratic societies are built on. We have known for ages that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will warm the planet. So this is nothing new. I think the debate in the scientific community isn’t whether it’s happening, but how well we can adapt to the changes in the future. There are optimists that think we can technologically mitigate some of the most extreme climate change scenarios in the future. Others don’t think it will be that easy. Policy presents whole new set of challenges. Much of the expansion of carbon emissions and coal burning is now occurring in Asia. The U.S. has actually seen a small decline in emissions shifting to cleaner natural gas. While places like China are driving the global increase in emissions and opening new coal plants all the time. Then the next debate is renewables vs nuclear. Renewables like wind and solar are very land intensive. So even many people who are conservation minded and care about climate change are fighting large wind and solar installations near their backyards. Plus these energy sources are intermittent and the battery technology for large storage still isn’t there. The power distribution system needs to be upgraded at a great cost to consumers for more Renewables to come on line. Consumers are already stretched and should not have to pay more for their electric. We are seeing increasing debates in places like Germany with soaring electric rates. They are many that advocate for newer nuclear designs but no utilities want to build anymore due to how high the coast of building a new nuclear plant has become. So the global default may be to continue with business as usual increases in emissions while tying to innovate our way out of the damage that it’s causing the planet. What may happen is that wealthier countries will find ways to cope. But large stretches of the planet especially closer to the equator will really suffer. Not to mention the impact on wildlife which can only adapt or migrate so fast.

The cooling effect from the expansion of agriculture and irrigation is most pronounced in the long term decline in very hot 95° and higher days across the region. https://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/special-report-iowas-changing-climate Higher humidity also has impact on temperatures during every season. In summer, average days above 95 degrees in Cedar Rapids from 1894 through 2018 fell by 12.7 days. “We don't seem to have the heat that we used to have when I started back in the 80s and the 70s,” said Weather First Chief Meteorologist Terry Swails. “A lot of temperatures, 98 to 102, that seemed like it was pretty common. It was rare if we went a summer without at least one 100-degree day. Now that's a rare event. It seems if we get 95 that's kind of a big deal.”

These strong south based blocks continue to become more common. We could have used this more +PNA back in December. Turned out to be a record setting wet pattern in spots with the energy getting stuck under the block.

I was able to find a few longer term observations from the shallower Florida Bay on twitter.

Too wet this month with all the convection and clouds to build the 100° heat like last July.

Strongest Ambrose Jet of the season today with gusts 35-40 mph near the shore. Plenty of rip currents and very rough surf. Blowing sand will be common also.

Nice under 10 minute presentation on the topic today.

Another extreme marine heatwave for the planet under a near record 500 mb blocking pattern for July in that part of the world. We had another near record 500 mb anomaly last December just north of that location.

A little late in the month for the warmest day based on previous years. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=65&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ6026&month=7&dir=hot&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jul 27 to Jul 31 Missing Count 2022-07-31 92 0 2021-07-31 94 0 2020-07-31 96 0 2019-07-31 95 0 2018-07-31 89 0 2017-07-31 91 0 2016-07-31 93 0 2015-07-31 96 0 2014-07-31 90 0 2013-07-31 87 0 2012-07-31 90 0 2011-07-31 95 0 2010-07-31 93 0

The corn belt is located more over Eastern SD. But I just bring up to add as one factor out of several including ENSO teleconnections. There are several layers to a hemispheric Rossby wave pattern. Whether the Corn Belt cooler and wetter influence is working to alter the background Rossby wave pattern is still an unknown. We have several examples when the influence is warmer instead of cooler. It could also be working on a level to cool further what would have already been a cooler El Niño teleconnection pattern for the Plains. So would need a model study to isolate possible influences in the overall upper pattern. In any event, those extreme dust bowl heat records should be safe for another July.

I believe we would continue to see the record warm SSTs along the NW Atlantic increase as the current slows more and warm water piles up. The cool area south of Greenland would continue to increase with less warm water transport. Stefan Rhamstorf has been doing much of the research. https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/

Similar cooler pattern this July in the Plains like the longer term warm season trend has shown. It would make an interesting study to see if the increased agriculture and irrigation is affecting the Rossby wave train in some way. A study has shown that the Dust Bowl heating from the poor land use practices actually altered the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. Time Series Summary for Rapid City Area, SD (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 25 Missing Count 1 1992-07-25 63.7 0 2 1993-07-25 64.2 0 3 1972-07-25 64.4 0 4 1950-07-25 66.2 0 5 1958-07-25 67.0 0 6 1944-07-25 68.2 0 7 2009-07-25 68.7 0 - 1951-07-25 68.7 0 8 2010-07-25 69.1 0 9 2023-07-25 69.3 0 10 1968-07-25 69.5 0

Looks like one of the U.S.high end QLCS Derecho type events in Switzerland. A gust to 135 mph is the real deal.

You can also use XMACIS2 http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2020 11.39 0 2 1988 11.17 0 3 1975 10.33 0 4 1997 10.00 0 5 1984 9.65 0 6 1987 9.60 0 7 1969 8.26 0 8 2004 8.19 0 9 1989 7.42 0 10 2023 7.26 6

Is this what you are looking for? https://www.njweather.org/data

I remember. They really started getting blighted during the 90s in Long Beach. Sounded like gunshots during heavy wet snowstorms as the branches snapped. Then March 2010, Irene, and Sandy. The old saying was never park your car under one of them if there were any kind of storms in forecast. They really were a hazard before Sandy wiped out most of them.

Those old Sycamores don’t do well in high winds.

Even mature UHI locations like LGA haven’t seen that great a jump in warm season average low temperatures above the 2nd place month. The difference at LGA between 1st and 2nd place is only a few tenths of a degree. Caribou so far is +3.8° above the next closest year. Both stations have had exactly 4 out of the top 5 warmest July minimums since 2010. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75.2 0 2 2010 74.9 0 3 2013 74.5 0 4 1999 74.1 0 5 2023 73.8 7 6 2019 73.6 0 - 2016 73.6 0 7 2022 73.3 0 - 2006 73.3 0 8 1994 72.7 0 9 2018 72.6 0 - 2012 72.6 0 10 2015 72.5 0 - 2008 72.5 0 - 1995 72.5 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 63.7 7 2 2020 59.9 0 3 1947 59.5 0 4 2018 59.4 0 5 2010 59.2 0 6 1970 58.8 0 7 1994 58.5 0 - 1967 58.5 0 8 1975 58.4 0 9 2006 58.2 0 10 1973 58.1 0

Numerous records set from Maine into Maritime Canada with the current extreme marine heatwave in that area. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 63.7 7 2 2020 59.9 0 3 1947 59.5 0 4 2018 59.4 0 5 2010 59.2 0

Gust to 46 mph at Newark.