bluewave

The HRRR and HRDPS have been doing a great job with convection. Maybe the introduction of AI plus the Euro eventual 5km resolution upgrade will improve convection forecasts past 48 hrs. https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/ECMWF_Roadmap_to_2025.pdf

The record warmth this July increases the odds that 2023 will finish as the warmest year on record.

Yeah, every season since 2000 has been all or nothing for snowfall at Islip. No moderate seasons with between 13-32”. Numerous moderate seasons from 1963 to 1990. So the character of our snowfall distribution has changed. Very hard to do a seasonal forecast in the fall and know if we are getting 33-65 “or under 10” for season. In the old days you could do a moderate seasonal snowfall forecast for 15-30 “or 20-30” and have a reasonable chance of being correct. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2023-04-30 5.0 0 2022-04-30 37.0 0 2021-04-30 33.5 0 2020-04-30 6.8 0 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 2009-04-30 36.2 0 2008-04-30 10.7 0 2007-04-30 9.0 0 2006-04-30 36.0 0 2005-04-30 58.8 0 2004-04-30 41.4 0 2003-04-30 54.6 0 2002-04-30 3.7 1 2001-04-30 38.9 1 2000-04-30 9.0 0

July was a record month for US severe reports. But it seems like Europe had even more extreme severe.

Strong MCS signal from DC to near Philly. Also convection into NE PA, SE NY, and NW NJ. But everything weakens as it gets closer to NYC.

Yeah, it usually works out that way. Plus the clouds are holding on a little longer from the am convection here.

New July record for 500 mb blocking near Southern Greenland.

Looks like another event where the severe maxes out from SE PA to around Philly and Central and Southern NJ. Impressive rear inflow jet crossing that area tomorrow with the MCS. Probably plenty of gusts there 60-70+mph with embedded tornadoes possible. Could even be a few 70+ gusts if the MCS really gets going.

It does look like a break between the morning and late afternoon or evening convection. Several models clear out enough for mid to upper 80s pushing to near Philly which would help to destabilize the atmosphere for the evening severe potential.

Yeah, members on here will tolerate a mild winter as long as we get some decent snowstorms. While every winter in the Northeast since 15-16 has been warmer than average, some of the milder years did feature decent snowstorms. But the winters like 19-20 and 22-23 that are both mild and relatively snowless can be tough to take. Unfortunately, the track record for these seasonal models even a month or two out has been shown to be very low skill at times. Competing areas of marine heatwaves which drive the forcing seems to make these forecasts even more uncertain.

It’s a pretty big jump at this point to even talk about specific winter El Niño comparisons when the July forcing is still well west of where it usually is for a developing El Niño. This is a function of how warm the WPAC back to the IO still is for a developing El Niño. While Nino 1+2 to 3 is very warm for this time of year, the actual SSTs are much warmer west of the Dateline. So it’s still too early to know how much the winter forcing will resemble an El Niño if the WPAC remains as warm. Notice how seasonal models like the Euro went to a stock summer forcing composite for a developing east based El Niño. While it did have some forcing west of the Dateline, that forcing turned out much stronger and further west. The EPAC forcing never developed. So we have to ask how well these seasonal models will perform 5-6 months out when they can’t get the first 3 months correct? Euro summer forecast Verification so far much different

Probably better to go by the average of the all the bouy SSTs to show the record breaking nature of this most recent marine heatwave around the keys and Everglades. Sometimes going by one bouy narrows the scope of the event relative to previous years.

We’ll see if we can get 3 rounds of convection Monday into Tuesday. One round with the morning warm front. Then another with the cold front later on. Plenty of helicity and shear so embedded spin ups may be possible. Then maybe some cold pool storms Tuesday as the UL tracks across.

Excessive tree growth has caused NYC to significantly decline on the heatwave list since 1971. NYC was near the top for heatwaves during the 1971-1980 period of 10 warm seasons. It has dropped to the bottom of the list on the most recent 10 season period from 2014 to 2023. # of 3 day or more 90° heatwaves 1971-1980 EWR………………..………….23 NYC………………………..….21 Freehold-Marlboro….…..19 New Brunswick……………18 LGA……………………………..12 POU…………………………….12 # of 3 day or more 90° heatwaves + increase since 1971-1980 2014-2023 Freehold-Marlboro……..52…..+33 Newark………………………41……+18 New Brunswick…………..38……+20 LGA…………………………….28……+16 POU…………………………….28……+16 NYC…………………………….20……..-1

Most stations are close to normal for warmer 91-20 average JJA summer departures so far. Plenty of blocking. Where was this pattern during recent winters?

Just looks like the typical summer frontal passage with some scattered evening convection on Friday. Nice weekend as the front keeps moving to the east.

This was the first +1.5C July. Looks like we are ahead of the pace required to have the first full year of +1.5C by 2033.

This is the first time we have seen an El Niño evolution like this. So there aren’t any analog years for this type of development. This event is doing it down thing and we’ll just have to wait and see where the forcing lines up from the fall into winter.

The one common denominator to extreme heat events like the PAC NW heat dome was drought feedback. We have been very wet over the last decade. So we haven’t been able to challenge the near to all-time record highs set back in 2010-2011 when droughts were present from the Plains to the East Coast. A PAC NW magnitude event for our area would mean our first 110°+ reading. So luckily, we haven’t had that type or drought here since the 1960s. But we have made up for it with much higher dewpoints and consistent very high 90° day count years. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature Newark Area ThreadEx 108 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 CANOE BROOK COOP 107 HARRISON COOP 107 Trenton Area ThreadEx 106 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 106 RINGWOOD COOP 106 SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 106 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 105 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 105 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 105 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 105 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 105 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 104 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 104 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 104 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 104 BOUND BROOK 2W COOP 104 PLAINFIELD COOP 104 CRANFORD COOP 104 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 104 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 104 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature MINEOLA COOP 108 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105 CHEMUNG COOP 104 ELMIRA CORNING REGIONAL AP WBAN 104 GLENS FALLS FARM COOP 104 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 104 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 104 RHINEBECK 4SE COOP 104 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NORRISTOWN COOP 108 Reading Area ThreadEx 106 READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 106 LEWISTOWN COOP 106 STEVENSON DAM COOP 106 LOCK HAVEN SEWAGE PLANT COOP 105 RENOVO COOP 105 MILLHEIM COOP 105 NEW CASTLE 1 N COOP 105 MARCUS HOOK COOP 105 SAFE HARBOR DAM COOP 105 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 105 SHIPPENSBURG COOP 105 HERITAGE FIELD AIRPORT WBAN 105 DOYLESTOWN AIRPORT WBAN 105 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 104 RAYSTOWN LAKE 2 COOP 104 HUNTINGDON COOP 104 HAMBURG COOP 104 ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 104 Allentown Area ThreadEx 104 FORD CITY 4 S DAM COOP 104 CHAMBERSBURG 1 ESE COOP 104 WEST CHESTER 2 NW COOP 104 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 104 WILLIAMSPORT 2 COOP 104 SELINSGROVE PENN VALLEY AP WBAN 104

July finished at 12 lowest in the Arctic for extent which was close to last year.

The southern stream low is less phased with the northern stream so the deeper moisture from the south stays separate this run. The OP Euro can sometimes be overamped. Now looks like a regular frontal passage with the typical scattered convection.

That has been their average August monthly low since 2010. Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for Saranac Lake Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Aug Season Mean 36 36 2023 36 36 2022 37 37 2021 37 37 2020 37 37 2019 35 35 2018 36 36 2017 32 32 2016 37 37 2015 39 39 2014 36 36 2013 34 34 2012 32 32 2011 40 40 2010 36 36