bluewave

61° now in NYC as they are getting closer to the record of 66°. 1/4 66 in 1950 64 in 1993 62 in 1998

December featured the 2nd strongest Greenland blocking at 500mb just behind 2010. The previous 2nd strongest was 1978. This is the first time such strong Greenland blocking became so south based and linked up with the SE Ridge at times.

We have had 7 consecutive warmer winters from 15-16 to 21-22. The 96-97 to 01-02 was only 4 years. So this one is the longest streak.

But the warming itself influences what types of patterns we get. Marine heatwaves in the WPAC and off the US East Coast can result in record SE Ridges instead of more frequent cooler troughs. We haven’t had a cold winter since 14-15 which has never happened over such a long period of time. So if the circulation pattern changes, then what used to be a 32° day can become more frequent 50° or even 60° winter days.

All I can say is they the temperatures will probably average above normal the next few weeks. No sign yet of the fast Pacific flow and trough near the West Coast backing off. Plus all the Arctic air is currently in Asia.

I understand. We always need some type of extra support like a perfectly timed closed low to get it to snow in warm patterns. But it’s has been a challenge in recent years to get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit and allow the pieces to fall into place. We have learned that we need to see snow under 5 or even 3 days to be believable with such a hostile Pacific.

Yeah, 14-15 to 17-18 was a peak in snowfall for 5 year periods since 02-03 in NYC. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.3 2.6 4.2 7.7 2.7 T 16.4 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 M M M T 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.0 4.1 16.7 12.2 8.2 1.1 42.3 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.6 0.9 7.8 10.6 11.7 3.3 T 34.9 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T T 7.7 7.0 13.7 3.8 0.7 32.9 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3

Yeah, I think the record SSTs in the WPAC and off the East Coast are working in tandem to enhance the SE Ridge. Notice how the models have been underestimating the -PNA and the SE Ridge day 11-15. This has been a common occurrence in recent years. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

Yeah, the faster Pacific Jet started with the 18-19 season. Notice the step down in snowfall from the previous 5 year period. The strong La Niña background state prevented the El Niño from coupling in 18-19. We got really lucky with the +PNA -AO for the 2020-2021 La Niña. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.3 2.6 4.2 7.7 2.7 T 16.4 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 M M M T 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.0 4.1 16.7 12.2 8.2 1.1 42.3 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.9 2.5 7.3 7.9 1.4 T 18.1 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 M M M 0.4 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.1 3.5 23.2 13.4 13.5 1.0 54.8 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7

The long range EPS and GEFS continue to underestimate the Pacific Jet and the -PNA trough near the West Coast day 11-15. So a continuation of the day 11-15 forecasts struggling with the fast Pacific flow. These week 2 forecasts have been getting pushed back since late November. New runs for Jan 10 Old runs

Today is the 4 consecutive day over 50° in NYC. Models extend this to 8 days by Thursday. So a pretty long 50° streak for this time of year. The only thing currently in the way of 70° for Wednesday is clouds and some showers. The 850 mb temperatures of +10C to +12C would support 70° if we can sneak in a few breaks of sun.

The snowfall so far has been all elevation and lake effect dependent.

Yeah, 8-10 days is the effective limit before the model skill quickly drops off. But sometimes there are aspects of the day 10-15 teleconnection forecasts that the models are able to pick up on. The record block north of Alaska showing up day 10 and beyond was a big model win. But the models didn’t catch on to the block linking up with the SE Ridge until under 8 days. So little details which determine the actual storm tracks take longer to resolve. The record Western Atlantic warm pool and the La Niña cause the models to underestimate the strength of the SE Ridge beyond 7 days. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

It quickly corrected warmer in the following runs. But the EPS mean rule worked out. Tucked in lows from 8 days out usually correct westward and too warm in time. It’s the lows that are suppressed day 8-10 when we have a great blocking pattern and favorable Pacific that can become our KU events.

I will give the ECMWF credit for showing the 3 possible clusters on that snowier run. The one that won out was the cutter track. The next one was really tucked in and had P-type issues at the coast. Only one cluster had the benchmark track which would have made the whole forum happy.

There is no way to know what the weather is going to be beyond the effective 10 to sometimes 15 day model limit. All we know is that the models have been pushing back the good pattern further out into time since late November. Just look at the model discussions at the beginning of the December thread. We can remember some of the longer range runs showing a possible snowstorm that turned out to be a record cutter right before Christmas. While the models missed the magnitude of cold behind the cutter, it only lasted 3 days. Then the current warm up beat expectations. At least the models were in good agreement longer range on the extreme block north of Alaska which drove that cold. Fast Pacific flow patterns can be tricky for snow even if we can sneak in a few closer to average days in an otherwise mild pattern. We usually have the issue of primary lows running to the Great Lakes. Then the secondary low can get suppressed to our south. Plus models may keep showing snow chances day 6-10 that can’t make it to under 5 days.

Just missed the record high of 63° by one degree yesterday at Newark. This is following the record low max on the 24th. 12/30 63 in 1984 62 in 2022 58 in 1990 12/24 17 in 2022 21 in 1989 22 in 1983

The warmer finish to December is allowing the average to get closer to 40° again. 2017 and 2010 were the only Decembers to finish under 38°. 2010 was the last time we had an average closer to freezing for the month. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 40.0 40.0 2022 38.0 38.0 2021 43.8 43.8 2020 39.2 39.2 2019 38.3 38.3 2018 40.1 40.1 2017 35.0 35.0 2016 38.3 38.3 2015 50.8 50.8 2014 40.5 40.5 2013 38.5 38.5 2012 41.5 41.5 2011 43.3 43.3 2010 32.8 32.8

That’s what I thought that you meant. We had 850s in the +10C to +12C range also on 1-11-20 when Newark hit 70°. The breaks of sun allowed us to beat guidance from a few days before. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 116 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 Models are showing by the end of Saturday, 850mb temperatures near 10 to 12 degrees C. Prior to then, a deep-layered SW flow will result in an anomalously warm airmass with potential record warmth. Highs away from the immediate coast will likely reach 60-65 Saturday, perhaps even warmer with more sun being realized There is the potential for a few spots across interior NE NJ to hit 70. Coastal locations will struggle due to the strong onshore flow, but even there records could be attained. Highs will top out in the 60s for most locations except the immediate coast, where it will be in the mid to upper 50s.

I think we had sunny conditions for our last January 70° back in 2020. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 74 0 2 2007 72 0 3 2020 70 0 - 2002 70 0 - 1998 70 0 - 1932 70 0 4 1974 69 0 5 2000 68 0 - 1967 68 0 6 2017 67 0 - 2005 67 0 - 1995 67 0 7 2013 66 0 - 2008 66 0 - 1993 66 0 - 1990 66 0 - 1975 66 0 - 1937 66 0 8 2016 65 0 - 1973 65 0 - 1972 65

The Euro, GFS, and CMC, all have 850 mb temperatures in the +10C to +12C range. Those were the 850 mb temperatures when we made it to the low 70s in early January 2007. But that year had nearly full sun. So the models currently have mid 60s with plenty of clouds. More sun than forecast would allow us to make a run on 70°.

50°+ days have been getting closer to days with lows below 20° during the winter. So it makes it easier for big temperature swings. We have also been seeing more snowstorms near 50° days. This pattern started to become more pronounced around 2005. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-12-23 58 8 2022-12-24 15 7 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-02-14 25 16 2022-02-15 30 16 2022-02-16 49 28 2022-02-17 68 49 2022-02-18 63 27 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2020-12-19 32 20 2020-12-20 40 31 2020-12-21 46 37 2020-12-22 46 38 2020-12-23 45 36 2020-12-24 59 43 2020-12-25 61 29 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2019-01-30 35 6 2019-01-31 16 2 2019-02-01 21 11 2019-02-02 34 16 2019-02-03 53 33 2019-02-04 61 41 2019-02-05 65 44 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-01-05 19 9 2018-01-06 13 6 2018-01-07 18 5 2018-01-08 31 17 2018-01-09 44 30 2018-01-10 43 30 2018-01-11 53 41 2018-01-12 61 44 2018-01-13 58 19 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2017-12-19 55 45 2017-12-20 51 34 2017-12-21 39 32 2017-12-22 50 35 2017-12-23 48 38 2017-12-24 41 36 2017-12-25 38 28 2017-12-26 28 23 2017-12-27 24 17 2017-12-28 18 11 2017-12-29 22 11 2017-12-30 23 17 2017-12-31 21 9 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2017-01-07 26 20 2017-01-08 25 16 2017-01-09 23 14 2017-01-10 46 21 2017-01-11 52 42 2017-01-12 66 47 2017-01-13 62 32 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2016-02-13 22 6 2016-02-14 15 -1 2016-02-15 35 13 2016-02-16 54 35 2016-02-17 39 35 2016-02-18 36 27 2016-02-19 39 24 2016-02-20 61 39 2016-02-21 55 44 2016-02-22 52 38 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2016-01-04 36 14 2016-01-05 29 11 2016-01-06 41 25 2016-01-07 46 31 2016-01-08 46 31 2016-01-09 47 40 2016-01-10 59 40 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2015-01-04 56 41 2015-01-05 49 21 2015-01-06 22 19 2015-01-07 23 9 2015-01-08 21 8 2015-01-09 33 19 2015-01-10 23 16 2015-01-11 37 18 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2014-02-22 54 40 2014-02-23 54 43 2014-02-24 44 27 2014-02-25 33 24 2014-02-26 31 20 2014-02-27 34 14 2014-02-28 24 9 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2014-01-03 18 9 2014-01-04 29 8 2014-01-05 40 27 2014-01-06 55 19 2014-01-07 19 4 2014-01-08 22 9 2014-01-09 32 22 2014-01-10 37 30 2014-01-11 58 37 2014-01-12 54 38 2014-01-13 51 37 2014-01-14 52 44 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2013-12-21 65 51 2013-12-22 71 61 2013-12-23 64 42 2013-12-24 42 26 2013-12-25 31 19 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2013-02-15 55 37 2013-02-16 41 31 2013-02-17 32 18 2013-02-18 35 17 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2013-01-19 51 30 2013-01-20 53 30 2013-01-21 32 26 2013-01-22 27 13 2013-01-23 20 11 2013-01-24 22 12 2013-01-25 24 13 2013-01-26 27 15 2013-01-27 34 19 2013-01-28 36 29 2013-01-29 49 36 2013-01-30 59 39 2013-01-31 61 30 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2012-01-03 33 15 2012-01-04 27 13 2012-01-05 40 27 2012-01-06 53 35 2012-01-07 62 46 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2011-02-09 29 15 2011-02-10 29 22 2011-02-11 37 19 2011-02-12 40 30 2011-02-13 46 28 2011-02-14 58 37 2011-02-15 37 25 2011-02-16 48 26 2011-02-17 63 46 2011-02-18 67 46 2011-02-19 54 23 2011-02-20 40 21 2011-02-21 37 24 2011-02-22 36 16 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2010-01-24 50 32 2010-01-25 57 49 2010-01-26 49 35 2010-01-27 39 31 2010-01-28 42 20 2010-01-29 23 16 2010-01-30 20 13 2010-01-31 30 14 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2009-02-05 23 12 2009-02-06 32 15 2009-02-07 50 28 2009-02-08 58 38 2009-02-09 45 33 2009-02-10 50 35 2009-02-11 65 45 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2008-12-15 67 48 2008-12-16 58 30 2008-12-17 42 32 2008-12-18 42 36 2008-12-19 37 29 2008-12-20 31 22 2008-12-21 37 25 2008-12-22 27 13 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2008-02-05 52 38 2008-02-06 68 41 2008-02-07 49 38 2008-02-08 45 35 2008-02-09 44 37 2008-02-10 44 15 2008-02-11 24 10 2008-02-12 31 17 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2008-01-02 38 17 2008-01-03 20 12 2008-01-04 36 16 2008-01-05 43 32 2008-01-06 50 36 2008-01-07 62 45 2008-01-08 64 53 2008-01-09 64 47 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2006-12-01 70 49 2006-12-02 49 39 2006-12-03 46 35 2006-12-04 41 31 2006-12-05 37 29 2006-12-06 49 31 2006-12-07 53 26 2006-12-08 29 18 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2006-02-15 56 36 2006-02-16 59 40 2006-02-17 58 32 2006-02-18 35 15 2006-02-19 30 15 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2006-01-15 32 16 2006-01-16 32 16 2006-01-17 44 26 2006-01-18 58 36 2006-01-19 47 34 2006-01-20 61 42 2006-01-21 63 38 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2005-02-15 56 46 2005-02-16 54 35 2005-02-17 38 31 2005-02-18 31 18 2005-02-19 32 16 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2005-01-13 59 38 2005-01-14 66 34 2005-01-15 34 26 2005-01-16 31 27 2005-01-17 28 18 2005-01-18 18 9 2005-01-19 26 9 2005-01-20 30 20 2005-01-21 20 9 2005-01-22 25 6 2005-01-23 26 9 2005-01-24 24 8 2005-01-25 33 20 2005-01-26 37 17 2005-01-27 18 9 2005-01-28 22 5

Looks like New Year’s Day starts out in the 50s with 60s near record warmth by next Wednesday.

Very mild pattern for early January as the unusually strong zonal Pacific Jet dominates.

This was the coldest December since 1991 to have a T or less of snowfall in NYC. Most of the years averaged over 40° for December. So all the real cold came behind the cutter. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall December Temperarure 1 2011 0.0 43.3 - 2006 0.0 43.6 3 2022 T 37.1 - 2018 T 40.1 - 2015 T 50.8 - 2001 T 44.1 - 1999 T 39.9 - 1997 T 38.2 - 1996 T 31.3 - 1994 T 42.3