bluewave

A welcome break from the major heat of this summer coming up. High pressure will become established over New England next several days with onshore flow. So the warmer spots will eventually return to 80s which isn’t very extreme by recent September standards. Then a closed low will approach from the west next week and bring another round of scattered convection.

Great job by several models in showing for days that there will be a relative dry slot between the two waves of low pressure.

Another big swing from drought to over 10.00” in Cranston, RI like we have seen recently in other parts of the country.

The second batch of of heavy rain may be our best shot as per the 12z HRRR. But there may be a bit of a dry slot for spots between the two areas. Hard to know until nowcast time. Maybe the models are overdoing the dry slot and we get more of a filled in look joining the band to the north and south.

Today may be the last shot in a while at upper 80s to around 90 for the warm spots in NJ. Unusually strong -NAO for early September will cool things down going forward. So expect more comfortable highs in the 70s this week before 80s return by next weekend.

Strongest warm pool on record for this time of year east of New England. That spot is turning into a hurricane magnet recently with Danielle an the forecast for Earl. Pretty impressive record SST warmth surrounding the small area of La Niña cooler SSTs.

The 6z Euro is starting to build confidence in our first widespread 1-3 inch rainfall event in a while.

While a few inches of rain would be a start, it’s not enough to be a drought buster. Dry spots like Newark have over a -8.34 inch deficit. The only good news is that droughts haven’t lasted that long here in the last 20 years. Plus, even of bigger droughts in the late 90s and early 00s were nothing like the megadrought currently affecting the West. THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 3 2022... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. PRECIPITATION (IN) SINCE JAN 1 -8.34

It’s pretty wild how far north the record SSTs in the Atlantic extend. So the -NAO is lining up with that anomalous warm pool. But it’s also far enough south to pump the WAR. Tropical systems winding up in that part of the Atlantic are mostly recurving OTS systems. So they don’t do us much good for drought relief since scattered convection can only do so much.

Some good news for the holiday weekend outdoor activities is that the Euro and RGEM are really slowing the front down due to the stronger WAR. So we could see mostly dry conditions into Labor Day. This means that the warm spots with less clouds could tack on another 90° day. It is going to take a very strong -NAO to bring temps back closer to normal for several days following Labor Day. Then upper 80s to around 90° could return next weekend as the blocking relaxes. As usual, the models haven’t been stellar with the rainfall forecasts recently. So we’ll take whatever we can get.

Danielle forming north of the tropics matches the seasonal pattern.

Yeah, maybe we can finally pick up some much needed rainfall next week as we get one of the strongest -NAO patterns for early September. The amounts of rain will come down to where the front stalls out underneath the Canadian high. So the summer heat will take a break next week with some days not getting out of the 70s.

Not much correlation between a top 10 driest July and August at Islip and snowfall the following season. But you can see why the lawns are so brown. Rare combination of warmest and driest June and July on record. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 31 Snowfall for the following season 1 2022-08-31 1.94 ? 2 2005-08-31 2.35 36.0 3 1972-08-31 2.45 4.5 4 1966-08-31 2.91 52.4 5 2015-08-31 3.22 41.4 6 1980-08-31 3.41 20.8 7 1968-08-31 3.51 43.5 8 1998-08-31 3.53 19.4 - 1974-08-31 3.53 14.5 9 1993-08-31 3.58 37.0 10 1981-08-31 3.76 35.4 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 1 2022-08-31 77.4 1 2 2016-08-31 77.1 0 3 2020-08-31 76.5 0 4 2018-08-31 76.1 0 - 2010-08-31 76.1 0 5 1980-08-31 76.0 0 6 2019-08-31 75.9 0 - 2011-08-31 75.9 0 7 1999-08-31 75.8 0 8 2015-08-31 75.7 0 9 2005-08-31 75.6 0 10 1998-08-31 75.5 0

The latest update from the guidance is that Sunday will probably be the warmest day of the holiday weekend. Looks like low 90s ahead of the backdoor that will approach by later in the day.

Warmest summer and 2nd driest at Newark with a day to go. All our other stations are I the top 5 for warmth. With several also among the driest summers. So one of the most significant shutdowns of the tropics in the Atlantic which we heavily rely on for summer rainfall. The Plains drought ridge also played an important role. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 79.2 1 - 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2021 78.3 0 5 2011 78.0 0 6 2005 77.8 0 7 1988 77.7 0 8 2020 77.6 0 - 2016 77.6 0 - 1973 77.6 0 9 1999 77.1 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1966 4.46 0 2 2022 4.87 1 3 1949 5.68 0 4 1957 5.69 0 5 1965 5.83 0 6 1963 6.18 0 7 1993 6.20 0 8 1953 6.47 0 9 2010 6.74 0

Not surprising given one of the slowest starts to any tropical season on record. Just goes to show how much we rely on tropical moisture for our summer rainfall. The complete opposite pattern from the last 2 summers. So ENSO isn’t the only show in town with the other competing marine heatwaves.

The persistent mid level dry layer continues on the HRRR. So the convection weakens as it comes east.

2017 was our last summer with near average temperatures and a below normal number of 90° days. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 Near normal and cool years bolded Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 2021….+1.1….+1.2 2020…+2.6….+2.9 2019…+1.5…..+1.8 2018…+1.7……+1.8 2017…..+0.2….0.0 2016….+2.5….+2.5 2015….+1.4…..+0.8 2014…..-0.1…..-0.1 2013….+1.2…..+1.3 2012…..+1.7…..+1.7 2011…..+2.2…..+1.8 2010….+3.9…..+3.4 2009….-0.6…..-0.6 2008….+1.2……+1.4 2007…..+0.3…..+0.6 2006…..+1.7……+1.6 2005…..+2.6…..+3.3 2004…..-0.3….-0.6 2003…+0.4….+0.4 2002…..+1.6….+2.3 2001…..+0.7…..+0.6 2000…..-1.2…..-1.3 1999…..+2.7…..+2.9 1998….+0.7…..+0.7 1997….-0.3……-0.8 1996…..-0.6….-0.4 1995….+1.4…..+1.8 1994….+1.5…..+1.8 1993….+1.4…..+1.3 1992….-2.0…..-2.3 1991…..+1.8…..+1.7 Data for January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2017 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 25 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 25 NJ HARRISON COOP 23 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 22 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 17 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 17 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 14 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 13

With a few days to go, Newark is tied for the warmest summer. Freehold-Marlboro is also in 1st place. ISP is 2nd warmest. HPN is either 2nd or 3rd warmest since too many days are missing from 1995 to get an accurate average. JFK is currently ranked 3rd warmest. We can also see how most of the top 10 warmest summers have occurred since 2010. With a few days to go, Newark is tied for the warmest summer. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 79.2 2 - 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2021 78.3 0 5 2011 78.0 0 6 2005 77.8 0 7 1988 77.7 0 8 2020 77.6 0 - 2016 77.6 0 - 1973 77.6 0 9 1999 77.1 0 10 1995 77.0 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.7 5 2 2020 76.5 4 3 1999 76.3 7 4 2010 76.1 2 5 2021 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 74.7 0 2 2022 74.6 2 - 2020 74.6 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2021 73.7 0 8 2018 73.5 0 - 2005 73.5 0 9 2013 73.4 0 10 2012 73.3 0 - 1991 73.3 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1995 75.1 43 2 1999 74.3 7 3 2022 74.0 3 - 1983 74.0 1 4 2010 73.8 2 5 2016 73.7 0 6 2020 73.4 0 7 2005 73.2 2 - 1966 73.2 0 8 1952 73.1 0 9 2018 73.0 0 10 2012 72.9 0 - 1949 72.9 8 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2022 76.1 2 4 2015 76.0 0 5 2011 75.8 0 6 2020 75.7 0 7 1983 75.6 0 8 1984 75.4 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 10 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0

Once the June blocking weakened, it was off to the races for the temperatures in July and August.

Dueling record heat ridges in the NW and NE in August. But the heat was very extensive across the US this summer. Texas finally got a break after the record June and July heat.

Norfolk CT up in the Litchfield Hills is even more impressive at over +1.0° above the previous warmest August. That’s a +5 departure for that location. You can see the warmest departure area of +5 extending into Dutchess County. Time Series Summary for NORFOLK 2 SW, CT - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 72.4 3 2 2018 70.9 0 3 2001 70.5 4 4 2016 70.2 0 5 2021 69.8 0 6 2005 69.4 0 - 1955 69.4 0 7 2003 69.3 0 - 1973 69.3 0 8 2020 69.1 0 - 1998 69.1 2 - 1988 69.1 2 9 2015 68.7 0 - 2012 68.7 0 - 1947 68.7 3 10 2002 68.6 10

All the #1 warmest August records around the region will continue to add up to a top 3 or 5 warmest summer for many. So we continue the theme of numerous top 5 to top 10 warmest months and seasons since 2010. This summer will make it 3 in a row for several locations.

This is the first time that Newark had over 20.00” one summer and under 5.00” the next.

The record warm pool and ridging east of New England has been having a big impact on our local climate. It’s especially obvious this month with the record warmth in the Northeast. This pattern has been a major factor in all the record warmth since the +13.3 December 2015.