bluewave

We were trying to figure out when or if a snowfall threshold has been passed due to warming. But like I said, it will take much more data to determine. The 2007-2015 period is interesting in that it represents a peak in snowfall for our modern era at a place like Boston. If we can’t realize another peak like this in the coming decades, then the warming following the super El Niño may turn out to be threshold when the decline began. But the warming has been undeniable. The trick is at what point does the warming lead to reduced snowfall? Determining longer term climo is challenging for snowfall since measurement methods have changed over the years. Many older snowfall seasons would be higher with the more frequent measurement standards of modern times. So the slight rise at Boston could become closer to even or show a slight decline with corrected higher measurements in the earlier era. https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history Earlier in our weather history, the standard practice was to record snowfall amounts less frequently, such as every 12 or 24 hours, or even to take just one measurement of depth on the ground at the end of the storm. You might think that one or two measurements per day should add up to pretty much the same as measurements taken every 6 hours during the storm. It’s a logical assumption, but you would be mistaken. Snow on the ground gets compacted as additional snow falls. Therefore, multiple measurements during a storm typically result in a higher total than if snowfall is derived from just one or two measurements per day. That can make quite a significant difference. It turns out that it’s not uncommon for the snow on the ground at the end of a storm to be 15 to 20 percent less than the total that would be derived from multiple snowboard measurements. As the cooperative climate observer for Boulder, Colorado, I examined the 15 biggest snowfalls of the last two decades, all measured at the NOAA campus in Boulder. The sum of the snowboard measurements averaged 17 percent greater than the maximum depth on the ground at the end of the storm. For a 20-inch snowfall, that would be a boost of 3.4 inches—enough to dethrone many close rivals on the top-10 snowstorm list that were not necessarily lesser storms! Another common practice at the cooperative observing stations prior to 1950 did not involve measuring snow at all, but instead took the liquid derived from the snow and applied a 10:1 ratio (every inch of liquid equals ten inches of snow). This is no longer the official practice and has become increasingly less common since 1950. But it too introduces a potential low bias in historic snowfalls because in most parts of the country (and in the recent blizzard in the Northeast) one inch of liquid produces more than 10 inches of snow. This means that many of the storms from the 1980s or earlier would probably appear in the record as bigger storms if the observers had used the currently accepted methodology. Now, for those of you northeasterners with aching backs from shoveling, I am not saying that your recent storm wasn’t big in places like Boston, Portland, or Long Island. But I am saying that some of the past greats—the February Blizzard of 1978, the Knickerbocker storm of January 1922, and the great Blizzard of March 1888—are probably underestimated. So keep in mind when viewing those lists of snowy greats: the older ones are not directly comparable with those in recent decades. It’s not as bad as comparing apples to oranges, but it may be like comparing apples to crabapples. Going forward, we can look for increasingly accurate snow totals. Researchers at NCAR and other organizations are studying new approaches for measuring snow more accurately (see related story: Snowfall, inch by inch). But we can’t apply those techniques to the past. For now, all we can say is that snowfall measurements taken more than about 20 or 30 years ago may be unsuitable for detecting trends – and perhaps snowfall records from the past should not be melting away quite as quickly as it appears. Update • January 29, 2015 | Thanks to thoughtful feedback by several colleagues, this article has been updated. Paragraph 3 now includes a description of how climate studies handle the data inconsistencies. Paragraph 9 was added to describe the pre-1950s practice, no longer in wide use, of recording liquid water content only, and not snow depth.

Some type of threshold or peak may have been crossed for snowfall at Boston following the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC started to see a decline in snowfall in 18-19. DC also saw less snowfall like Boston following the super El Niño. But we may need another 5-10 years of data in order to confirm since snowfall data can be very noisy. The warming of the winters has become really pronounced with 8 warmer to record warm winters in a row since 15-16. Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.5 0.0 5.3 11.3 11.4 6.8 1.4 36.5 2022-2023 0.0 T 1.0 6.9 3.6 0.9 M 12.4 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.4 36.2 15.3 2.1 T 54.0 2020-2021 4.3 T 13.0 5.8 15.3 0.1 0.1 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 T 11.5 3.1 0.5 T 0.7 15.8 2018-2019 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1 11.6 13.5 T 27.4 2017-2018 0.0 T 9.2 17.8 8.3 23.3 1.3 59.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 5.9 8.9 21.5 10.1 1.2 47.6 2015-2016 T 0.0 0.9 9.5 15.0 4.1 6.6 36.1 ick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.1 0.4 13.1 18.9 21.2 5.7 0.2 59.5 2014-2015 0.0 2.6 0.3 34.3 64.8 8.6 T 110.6 2013-2014 0.0 T 11.7 21.8 22.9 2.2 0.3 58.9 2012-2013 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.0 34.0 20.6 T 63.4 2011-2012 1.0 T T 6.8 0.9 0.6 0.0 9.3 2010-2011 0.0 T 22.0 38.3 18.5 1.3 0.9 81.0 2009-2010 0.1 0.0 15.2 13.2 7.0 0.2 0.0 35.7 2008-2009 0.0 T 25.3 23.7 6.2 10.7 0.0 65.9 2007-2008 0.0 T 26.9 8.3 15.0 1.0 0.0 51.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.6 2.2 T 16.8 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 M 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.0 4.1 16.7 12.2 8.2 1.1 42.3 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.0 1.3 1.0 T 8.7 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 0.4 T M 0.4 2021-2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 T 0.9 0.0 13.2 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 T 2.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 5.4 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.6 2018-2019 0.0 1.4 0.0 11.5 3.7 0.3 0.0 16.9 2017-2018 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.2 0.2 4.5 T 7.8 2016-2017 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 T 2.0 0.0 3.4 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.8 3.1 0.3 T 22.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T T 2.9 3.8 6.9 3.1 T 16.8 2014-2015 0.0 T T 3.6 9.8 4.9 T 18.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 1.5 6.6 11.2 12.7 T 32.0 2012-2013 0.0 T 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.0 3.1 2011-2012 T 0.0 T 1.7 0.3 T 0.0 2.0 2010-2011 0.0 T 2.1 7.3 0.5 0.2 T 10.1 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 16.6 7.4 32.1 T 0.0 56.1 2008-2009 0.0 T T 1.9 0.1 5.5 0.0 7.5 2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño in NYC. NYC Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 ……………..+5.9

Good question.

Wonder what percentage makes to type 1-3?

Any entity that gains unchecked power whether government or corporate is doing harm. I have always been for the underdog.

We use fossil fuels to power our human civilization. Renewables can’t scale up fast enough to make a difference. Nuclear fusion is always 10 -20 years away. So we will probably be relying on fossil fuels much longer than we should. Since there is so much inequality in this world, the people least able to adapt to climate change are often impacted the most.

He was talking about we didn’t know 150 years ago how big fossil fuel energy would become and change the planet. We pretty much just stumbled upon it which was true. Just like we just happened to find agriculture 10,000 ago which shifted civilization from hunter gatherer to settling in cities and building nation states. So the industrial revolution was a natural consequence of agriculture even though it took thousands of years. The oil companies knew about carbon emissions warming the planet since the early 80s. Their internal models were very accurate.

The debate about climate change is really about policy and politics and not the science. The models have done a pretty good job forecasting the rise in global temperatures with carbon emissions. But I agree that politicians shouldn’t try to shut down policy debates or seek to curtail individual liberties.

Yeah, I thought the perspective on climate change from Adam Frank was a more helpful way of looking at it. https://www.npr.org/sections/13.7/2015/10/06/446109168/climate-change-is-not-our-fault It's time to change the way we talk about climate change. Political leaders have acknowledged human-driven (or "anthropogenic") global warming since 1964 (when President Lyndon Johnson mentioned it in a speech to Congress). Since then, however, we've done almost nothing to address its dangers. As everyone knows, the problem is the political polarization of an issue that is, at its root, a scientific question. But it's more than that, too. Our inability to even get past "yes, it's happening" stems from the stories we've been telling about how climate change happened as well as what means about us and for us in terms of the human future. So, today, I want to hit you with a different story and different perspective on this thing called climate change. You ready? Here it goes. It's not our fault. Climate change is not our fault. Now, let me be clear about exactly what I mean. Yes, global warming is happening and, yes, it's because of human activity. Specifically, climate change is occurring because the massive use of fossil fuels to power our global, social, industrial, etc., etc., etc., civilization. That part of the story is just science and it is unassailable. Anyone who says otherwise is living in a fantasyland. But here's the crux of the issue: 150 years ago when we started building that fossil-fuel based civilization, we had no idea of what we were doing. We'd found this black goo seeping up from the ground and it turned out you could do awesomethings with it. In the winter, you could burn it in a furnace and keep your house warm. In the summer, you could burn it in a power plant and use the electricity to keep your house cool. You could also burn it in an internal combustion engine and travel hundreds of miles in a single day. And all that electricity you were generating from the power plant? You could use that to keep the lights on at night and watch moving pictures of stuff happening on the other side of the planet. And don't even get me started on fertilizer and the plastics you get from fossil fuels. That stuff is versatile! Now, the story we usually tell ourselves about the world we built from fossil fuels — and the climate change it created — is that humans are evil and greedy. We're a plague on the planet and global warming is just the way the planet is getting rid of us. But there is another way to tell that story. We didn't change the climate because we were greedy. We did it by mistake. We did it using the gifts evolution bequeathed to us. Human beings have been building civilizations out of whatever we could get our hands on for at least 8,000 years: stone, rope, canvas, iron. It's just kind of how we roll. From my perspective as an astronomer, human beings and the cultures we've created are just another expression of the planet. We're not inherently bad or anti-nature. We're just something the Earth has done and, if you look at it, we've done it pretty well. Without intending to, we changed the atmospheric radiation transport properties of an entire planet. That's kind of remarkable for a bunch of hairless apes. So, I think it's time for us to go beyond of these narratives of our inherent greed and unworthiness. They are inherently divisive and they have nothing to do with the science of climate change. That's because the real truth is this: While triggering climate change might not be our fault, not doing everything we can about it now that we know it's happening — that would be our fault. Worse, it would be our failure as a species. For all our capacity to render horror and stupidity, we human beings have done some pretty awesome things. Many times across our history we've shown the gift of genius and compassion. That, too, is a planetary expression. So, let's start telling ourselves a different kind of story about the challenge we face. After all, we'll need everyone on board helping to figure out the next steps in keeping this great project of civilization moving forward.

Yeah, I had a subscription to accuweather back in my 56K modem pentium 150 CRT screen days. The debates were fun. I believe PB that used to post here several winters ago was good friends with him. So he must have showed several threads to JB. I think PB was a trader from Monmouth County. I don’t know what happened to him.

I actually started listening to JB on 1010 WINS back in the late 70s here in NY. He was very passionate about the weather. Then I followed him in late 90s to early 00s on accuweather. If you watched the old counterpoint weatherpoint videos, I often would debate points with him through email questions I would send in that the late Ken Reeves would read on air. We emailed back and forth quite a bit. I personally never though about climate change until around 2010 when the evidence became hard to miss. It was around this time that JB started making really poor long range calls about future global cooling by 2030 and a return to the 1970s climate. I thought of it mostly as sad to let politics get in the way of weather forecasting. JB seems like he would be a fun person to sit down to dinner and just discuss old storms and weather patterns with. I actually agree with some of JB’s criticisms on climate change polices enacted around the world. I think being critical of policy is fair game. But JB mixes the political criticism with the hard science criticism which are two completely different fields. Don’t throw out all the good climate science just because you disagree with political policies. I don’t care what anyones political views are in this country. I can find common points of interest with people from many political backgrounds. I think what gets said on these forums finds its way back to JB since he has contacts that read this forum. I have seen comments he made about some of the posts in here. He said that there are amateurs or citizen scientists on these forums that are as good or better than people he meets on the professional side. So JB if you are reading this, I welcome you to chime in here. We could probably find something in common to discuss. Or even come out here and share a fine Italian meal.

Future temperatures and snowfall in Boston will come down to which emissions path we follow.

Yeah, saw this tweet from VA.

Saw this tweet from Leeds, NY to our north.

Yeah, the March 1993 superstorm was a classic example for them as the 90s were their recent heavy snowstorm peak. Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 30.5 1942-03-30 0 2 27.7 1994-03-04 0 3 27.5 1993-03-14 0 - 27.5 1964-01-14 0 5 26.6 1994-03-03 0 6 25.2 1993-03-15 0 7 22.5 1968-11-13 0 8 19.5 1914-01-04 0 9 18.2 2003-02-18 0 10 18.0 1992-12-12 0 - 18.0 1942-03-31 0 - 18.0 1914-01-05 0 - 18.0 1894-04-11 0 14 17.7 1902-03-06 0 15 17.6 1964-01-13 0 16 17.5 1996-01-08 0 - 17.5 1962-03-07 0 - 17.5 1902-03-05 0 19 17.3 1995-11-15 0 - 17.3 1928-04-29 0 - 17.3 1928-04-28 0 22 17.0 1927-02-20 0 23 16.7 1961-02-05 0 24 16.5 1961-02-04 0 - 16.5 1920-02-05 0 26 16.2 1996-01-09 0 27 16.0 1926-02-04 0 28 15.9 1965-03-07 0 29 15.5 1995-11-16 0 30 15.3 1928-03-18 0 - 15.3 1942-03-04 0 32 15.2 1966-01-24 0 33 15.1 1965-03-06 0 34 15.0 2020-12-18 0 - 15.0 2020-12-17 0

State College finally pulled back ahead of Islip in 5 year snowfall averages since 18-19. Islip was able to hold the lead from 08-09 to 17-18. But the current lead that State College holds is from a much lower level around 30”. Earlier 5 year periods peaked over 60” back in the mid 90s. The high era for Islip was 13-14 to 14-18 with over 50”. So those separate 5 year periods may very well be a peak for both locations. State College column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 3.7 6.2 8.0 8.5 3.8 1.0 31.0 2022-2023 T 4.1 9.9 5.9 1.1 3.3 M 24.3 2021-2022 0.0 0.8 2.1 13.1 2.5 10.1 3.3 31.9 2020-2021 0.0 T 16.3 4.2 25.2 T T 45.7 2019-2020 0.0 2.0 2.3 5.3 2.0 0.9 0.7 13.2 2018-2019 T 11.7 0.2 11.6 11.7 4.9 T 40.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.9 2.5 7.3 6.9 1.5 T 19.0 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T 3.0 1.6 M 5.0 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 2.0 5.3 10.2 13.4 6.2 1.5 38.7 2017-2018 0.0 0.3 6.6 5.0 9.7 6.9 5.6 34.1 2016-2017 T 0.5 6.5 5.0 9.5 16.3 T 37.8 2015-2016 T T T 9.9 6.4 0.2 1.4 17.9 2014-2015 0.0 5.2 2.5 21.3 14.7 7.8 0.5 52.0 2013-2014 T 4.0 11.1 10.0 26.7 T T 51.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.1 3.5 23.2 13.4 13.5 1.0 54.8 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 1.6 1.0 7.3 10.0 10.9 4.4 T 35.3 2012-2013 0.0 1.0 13.9 8.6 9.8 10.3 T 43.6 2011-2012 3.0 T 1.5 9.2 5.3 T T 19.0 2010-2011 T T 3.2 14.2 9.9 11.1 T 38.4 2009-2010 4.9 T 14.0 3.9 25.5 0.8 T 49.1 2008-2009 0.2 3.9 4.0 14.3 3.9 T T 26.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.1 0.8 10.2 11.4 12.2 4.7 T 39.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 4.7 2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2008-2009 0.0 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 36.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.3 0.9 9.7 8.7 13.1 9.4 1.0 43.1 2007-2008 T 2.5 10.4 3.8 17.0 9.5 T 43.2 2006-2007 T T 0.4 4.7 15.3 13.4 3.8 37.6 2005-2006 1.5 1.6 15.4 1.7 4.3 2.2 0.2 26.9 2004-2005 T T 0.4 12.1 11.7 11.2 0.8 36.2 2003-2004 T 0.6 21.9 21.0 17.3 10.6 T 71.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.1 6.5 9.4 9.9 5.2 0.0 31.2 2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.8 7.3 T 0.0 10.7 2006-2007 0.0 T 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.8 T 9.0 2005-2006 0.0 0.5 7.6 4.7 19.9 3.2 0.1 36.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 7.0 21.5 17.0 13.3 0.0 58.8 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 15.5 19.1 1.1 5.7 0.0 41.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.6 0.8 6.2 12.6 8.4 8.7 1.2 38.5 2002-2003 3.1 2.9 19.3 11.8 31.6 9.5 5.4 83.6 2001-2002 T T 2.4 16.1 0.3 2.9 T 21.7 2000-2001 T 0.7 7.9 7.1 3.5 12.9 T 32.1 1999-2000 T 0.4 0.4 13.3 4.9 T 0.8 19.8 1998-1999 0.0 T 0.8 14.9 1.5 18.0 T 35.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.2 6.0 5.2 8.1 4.7 1.0 25.1 2002-2003 0.0 1.0 16.0 2.6 26.3 3.7 5.0 54.6 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 T T 0.0 3.7 2000-2001 T 0.0 10.8 9.2 8.6 10.3 T 38.9 1999-2000 0.0 T 0.4 5.8 2.6 0.2 T 9.0 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.5 2.8 9.1 T 19.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 6.9 9.4 19.9 15.2 12.4 0.4 64.3 1997-1998 T 2.9 14.7 8.6 17.1 4.9 T 48.2 1996-1997 T 1.5 8.6 14.0 10.1 6.9 0.3 41.4 1995-1996 0.0 23.4 17.1 41.0 5.1 11.1 1.3 99.0 1994-1995 T 2.4 0.8 2.5 13.2 4.0 0.6 23.5 1993-1994 T 4.3 5.6 33.6 30.5 35.3 T 109.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.5 9.3 4.5 2.3 26.9 1997-1998 0.0 T 1.0 T T 1.6 T 2.6 1996-1997 0.0 T 1.2 3.3 2.2 3.7 2.0 12.4 1995-1996 0.0 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 1994-1995 0.0 T T T 5.1 T 0.0 5.1 1993-1994 0.0 T 3.3 8.8 20.0 5.0 0.0 37.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 1.2 9.2 7.3 6.7 17.1 2.2 43.7 1992-1993 T T 19.9 2.3 23.3 42.4 4.6 92.5 1991-1992 0.0 2.6 0.7 4.9 2.3 15.6 0.8 26.9 1990-1991 T 0.1 10.9 7.9 2.7 12.3 0.5 34.4 1989-1990 T 3.0 12.2 13.5 3.4 3.7 5.0 40.8 1988-1989 T 0.1 2.5 7.8 1.6 11.6 0.1 23.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.5 2.9 2.9 4.2 6.0 0.6 18.2 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.3 10.9 13.3 0.0 28.6 1991-1992 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.3 1.5 7.6 T 13.4 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 T 3.6 5.3 1.9 0.0 10.8 1989-1990 0.0 7.6 0.2 2.0 2.0 4.2 3.0 19.0 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 19.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 2.9 5.9 16.2 9.3 7.4 1.4 43.1 1987-1988 T 7.8 8.2 9.9 7.5 5.4 0.2 39.0 1986-1987 0.0 3.0 0.8 35.1 5.8 5.7 1.9 52.3 1985-1986 0.0 T 9.6 11.7 19.9 1.0 0.1 42.3 1984-1985 0.0 0.4 3.3 11.7 10.7 0.8 4.7 31.6 1983-1984 0.0 3.1 7.4 12.8 2.7 24.2 T 50.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.2 3.4 8.7 5.0 2.7 T 19.9 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 4.2 10.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 19.5 1986-1987 0.0 T 3.4 8.8 8.6 1.7 0.0 22.5 1985-1986 0.0 T 2.1 2.6 10.4 0.1 T 15.2 1984-1985 0.0 T 4.7 9.3 5.8 T T 19.8 1983-1984 0.0 T 2.6 11.9 T 8.2 0.0 22.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 2.2 4.5 9.5 12.7 6.6 2.1 37.7 1982-1983 T T 1.8 6.7 10.9 3.2 T 22.6 1981-1982 T 0.2 7.9 17.8 17.5 15.2 10.5 69.1 1980-1981 T 8.9 4.7 8.2 9.4 7.6 T 38.8 1979-1980 T T 1.2 4.3 6.2 6.2 T 17.9 1978-1979 T 2.1 6.8 10.5 19.7 0.8 T 39.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.8 1.2 8.7 9.0 1.8 3.4 25.0 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.5 26.1 T 1.1 31.9 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 1.0 18.1 0.3 T 16.0 35.4 1980-1981 0.0 T 0.5 13.2 T 7.1 0.0 20.8 1979-1980 T 0.0 1.5 4.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 9.0 1978-1979 0.0 4.0 T 6.9 17.2 T T 28.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.2 2.6 14.1 18.7 10.4 7.4 1.1 54.6 1977-1978 1.0 7.2 22.2 41.7 14.8 11.2 0.1 98.2 1976-1977 T 1.1 9.9 13.2 7.6 7.2 1.8 40.8 1975-1976 0.0 T 8.5 15.2 10.9 8.1 0.2 42.9 1974-1975 T 2.2 13.7 14.9 14.0 4.2 1.1 50.1 1973-1974 0.0 2.7 16.4 8.7 4.7 6.1 2.3 40.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.3 3.5 11.5 14.2 5.5 T 34.9 1977-1978 0.0 0.8 0.2 27.7 28.9 10.4 T 68.0 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 T 9.0 17.0 8.0 T 34.0 1975-1976 0.0 T 11.0 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.0 30.2 1976-1977 0.0 T 6.2 11.2 6.6 4.0 0.0 28.0 1974-1975 0.0 0.5 T 1.8 11.0 1.2 T 14.5

-10 dewpoints around 950mb when the precip started allowed the temperatures to fall below freezing in narrow layer. SFC 1010.3 30 7.1 1.9 341 10 M 1000.0 114 6.4 -0.1 342 15 S 950.0 532 4.8 -10.4 334 23 S 900.0 974 6.3 -6.6 301 22 M 850.0 1444 6.9 3.8 274 31 S 800.0 1943 6.4 3.1 266 44

The climate models did a pretty good job overall when averaged out.

The blocking high to the north kept the warm sector down near DC today as the front is stalled out across the area.

January was the cold month in 03-04. The cold was longer lasting in 02-03. But since January 04 was the 3rd coldest month for JFK, it was memorable. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season 1976-1977 30.1 21.9 32.1 28.0 1977-1978 34.3 29.2 26.8 30.1 1967-1968 36.7 25.6 27.9 30.1 1962-1963 32.3 30.0 28.7 30.3 2002-2003 34.8 27.6 29.2 30.5 1993-1994 36.9 26.3 29.3 30.8 1958-1959 30.0 31.1 32.0 31.0 1960-1961 31.4 27.6 35.0 31.3 1963-1964 29.9 33.5 31.4 31.6 1961-1962 34.1 30.5 30.2 31.6 1969-1970 35.2 26.7 33.3 31.7 1968-1969 33.0 31.2 30.8 31.7 2003-2004 37.1 24.6 34.4 32.0 2014-2015 41.4 30.7 24.5 32.2 2010-2011 33.0 29.1 34.9 32.3 1970-1971 35.0 27.9 34.2 32.4 1964-1965 36.5 28.5 32.3 32.4 1978-1979 39.3 33.2 25.0 32.5 2013-2014 38.1 28.6 31.1 32.6 2000-2001 31.3 31.8 35.1 32.7 1955-1956 29.9 32.5 36.2 32.9 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year-Month Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1977-01 21.9 0 2 2015-02 24.5 0 3 2004-01 24.6 0 4 1979-02 25.0 0 5 1968-01 25.6 0 6 1994-01 26.3 0 7 1981-01 26.5 0 8 1989-12 26.6 0 9 1982-01 26.7 0 - 1970-01 26.7 0 10 1978-02 26.8 0

The last winter below freezing at JFK was 2002-2003. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1976-1977 28.0 0 2 1977-1978 30.1 0 - 1967-1968 30.1 0 3 1962-1963 30.3 2 4 2002-2003 30.5 0 5 1993-1994 30.8 0 6 1958-1959 31.0 6 7 1960-1961 31.3 0 8 1963-1964 31.6 0 - 1961-1962 31.6 0 9 1969-1970 31.7 0 - 1968-1969 31.7 0 10 2003-2004 32.0 0 11 2014-2015 32.2 0 12 2010-2011 32.3 0 13 1970-1971 32.4 0 - 1964-1965 32.4 2 14 1978-1979 32.5 0 15 2013-2014 32.6 0 16 2000-2001 32.7 0 17 1955-1956 32.9 0

Yeah, it was the 6th coldest August into January period for NYC. 2nd coldest January in NYC. It was the coldest January in Philly Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Aug 1 to Jan 31 Missing Count 1 1869-01-31 34.6 153 2 1918-01-31 46.8 0 3 1888-01-31 47.0 0 4 1881-01-31 47.1 0 5 1884-01-31 47.2 0 6 1977-01-31 47.8 0 7 1877-01-31 47.9 2 - 1872-01-31 47.9 0 8 1883-01-31 48.5 0 - 1873-01-31 48.5 0 9 1904-01-31 48.7 2 - 1893-01-31 48.7 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1918 21.7 0 2 1977 22.0 0 3 1888 23.2 0 4 1920 23.4 0 5 1875 23.6 1 6 1912 23.7 0 7 1893 23.8 0 8 1883 24.4 0 9 1884 24.5 0 10 1881 24.6 0 Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1977 20.0 0 2 1893 24.0 0 3 1918 24.1 0 4 1970 24.5 0 5 1982 24.7 0 6 1945 24.8 0 7 1961 25.0 0 8 1875 25.2 0 9 1981 25.3 0 - 1940 25.3 0 10 1912 25.4 0

Not even sure if a winter below freezing is possible again like our last one in 13-14. So a winter in the 20s is probably out of the question absent some type of super volcanic eruption. Winters have just warmed too much. 30 1993-1994 31.1 0 - 1934-1935 31.1 0 32 2002-2003 31.2 0 - 1967-1968 31.2 0 - 1909-1910 31.2 0 - 1870-1871 31.2 4 36 2014-2015 31.4 0

Yeah, 76-77 was the last top 10 coldest winter in NYC going back to around 1870. Places with a shorter period of record like HPN and ISP were the coldest. Was actually the coldest winter at Philly going back to 1875. Was the 3rd coldest Dec-Jan in NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1917-1918 25.7 0 2 1880-1881 26.5 0 3 1903-1904 27.3 0 4 1919-1920 27.4 0 5 1874-1875 27.7 4 - 1872-1873 27.7 0 7 1904-1905 28.1 0 8 1935-1936 28.3 0 9 1976-1977 28.4 0 - 1884-1885 28.4 0 - 1882-1883 28.4 0 10 1892-1893 28.6 0 - 1887-1888 28.6 0 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Jan 31 Missing Count 1 1918-01-31 23.3 0 2 1881-01-31 25.5 0 3 1977-01-31 26.0 0 4 1877-01-31 26.4 0 5 1920-01-31 26.8 0 6 1873-01-31 27.0 0 7 1883-01-31 27.5 0 8 1893-01-31 28.0 0 - 1884-01-31 28.0 0 9 1888-01-31 28.3 0 10 1904-01-31 28.4 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1976-1977 23.8 0 2 1977-1978 24.7 1 3 1962-1963 25.9 1 4 1978-1979 26.4 0 - 1960-1961 26.4 1 5 1993-1994 26.6 3 6 1958-1959 27.1 0 7 2002-2003 27.2 0 - 1969-1970 27.2 0 2014-2015 27.5 2 8 1981-1982 27.7 1 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1976-1977 27.0 0 2 1977-1978 27.1 0 3 1967-1968 27.4 0 4 1969-1970 29.2 0 5 2002-2003 29.3 0 6 1993-1994 29.4 0 7 1968-1969 29.8 0 8 2014-2015 30.0 0 - 1963-1964 30.0 2 9 1978-1979 30.1 0 10 2010-2011 30.4 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1960-1961 21.8 0 2 1962-1963 22.3 0 3 1969-1970 22.4 0 - 1944-1945 22.4 1 4 1976-1977 22.5 0 - 1947-1948 22.5 0 5 1993-1994 23.5 8 - 1933-1934 23.5 3 6 1977-1978 23.6 0 7 1935-1936 23.7 4 8 2002-2003 24.1 0 9 1958-1959 24.4 2 Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1976-1977 28.0 0 2 1962-1963 28.3 0 - 1903-1904 28.3 0 4 1977-1978 28.4 0 5 1917-1918 28.5 0 6 1904-1905 28.6 0 - 1874-1875 28.6 0 8 1880-1881 28.7 0 9 1960-1961 28.9 0 10 1892-1893 29.4 0 11 1935-1936 29.7 0 - 1884-1885 29.7 0 13 1876-1877 30.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1935-1936 27.1 0 2 1976-1977 27.6 0 3 1933-1934 27.7 0 4 1977-1978 28.6 0 5 1947-1948 28.9 0 6 1944-1945 29.2 0 7 1962-1963 29.4 0 8 1969-1970 30.1 0 - 1934-1935 30.1 0 9 1939-1940 30.3 0 10 2014-2015 30.4 0 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1976-1977 28.0 0 2 1977-1978 30.1 0 - 1967-1968 30.1 0 3 1962-1963 30.3 2 4 2002-2003 30.5 0 5 1993-1994 30.8 0 6 1958-1959 31.0 6 7 1960-1961 31.3 0 8 1963-1964 31.6 0 - 1961-1962 31.6 0 9 1969-1970 31.7 0 - 1968-1969 31.7 0 10 2003-2004 32.0 0 Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1917-1918 15.8 6 2 1919-1920 17.3 1 3 1935-1936 17.9 0 4 1903-1904 18.1 3 5 1933-1934 19.3 0 6 1904-1905 19.5 4 7 1962-1963 19.6 0 8 1976-1977 19.7 2 9 1977-1978 19.8 0 10 1987-1988 20.5 30 - 1969-1970 20.5 0

But Buffalo gets bigger individual snowstorms than Caribou does with the lake effect. for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 56.1 2001-12-28 0 2 48.1 2001-12-29 0 3 43.0 2022-12-25 0 4 42.3 1995-12-11 0 5 41.4 1995-12-10 0 6 40.2 2022-12-24 0 7 38.9 2000-11-20 0 8 38.8 1976-12-02 0 9 36.6 2022-11-19 0 10 36.0 1945-12-16 0 11 35.0 1995-12-12 0 12 34.8 2001-12-27 0 13 34.6 1945-12-17 0 14 33.4 2001-12-26 0 15 33.2 1985-01-21 0 16 30.8 2000-11-21 0 for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 33.1 2005-12-27 0 2 29.8 2005-12-26 0 3 29.5 2003-02-04 0 4 29.2 1984-03-14 0 5 29.0 1984-03-15 0 6 28.6 1984-03-16 0 7 27.3 2003-12-17 0 - 27.3 2003-12-16 0 9 27.1 2003-12-15 0 10 26.3 1982-04-09 0 - 26.3 1982-04-08 0 12 26.1 2005-12-28 0 13 23.8 2003-02-03 0 14 23.6 2001-04-02 0 15 23.3 1962-12-31 0 16 22.8 1982-04-07 0 17 22.4 1963-01-01 0 18 22.2 2001-04-01 0 19 22.0 1981-03-19 0 20 21.7 1986-01-05 0