bluewave

The warm spots could make a run on 10 days reaching 60° for the DJF winter period. First surge of 60°+ will be from later Thursday into Friday with the 60 mph gust potential. Then another warm up next week with more 60° potential. It used to be rare to get this many 60° days during the winter. But the winter 60° days have been steadily increasing.

The common denominator to this winter pattern has been the record North Pacific blocking. The ridge has been shifting back and forth each month since December. So we get this extreme volatility from month to month and day to day. The tropical forcing and wave breaks seem to be acting as catalysts for the changes. Standard MJO relationships and composites haven’t matched the canonical expectations this winter. So we have been getting a mash up of competing influences. Maybe the return of the West Coast Ridge near the start of March also has mixed causes and any specific MJO composites won’t really capture the totality of the pattern.

Another wave breaker pattern change near the beginning of March. All the models have a deep low pressure in the 930s next week to the north of Japan. This combines with the MJO to eventually push the ridge back to the West Coast and eventually flatten out the SE Ridge near the start of March. It’s interesting that a similar process lead to the early December pattern change. But this time the MJO has different teleconnections for later in the season allowing a shift from late February warmth to early March cold. The big story this year is the reliable pattern changes near the start of every month. Cold in November…record warmth in December…coldest January since 2015 with record snows….shift to warmer in February with less snow….shifting back colder as we start March.

Thursday night into Friday will be our next cutter with 60°+ temperatures and wind gust potential near 60 mph in the usual windier spots. Then we cool down again with more 60° potential ahead of another storm next week. So a continuation of the big weather swings pattern with the warmer days more impressive than the cold. This allows the temperatures to average out warmer than normal.

It was the first time that NYC dropped below 0° since 1994. But POU still hasn’t reached -20 or colder since 1994. Looks like -14 has been the best POU has been able to do since 2010. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1961-04-30 -30 0 2 1967-04-30 -23 0 - 1951-04-30 -23 0 3 1954-04-30 -22 0 4 1994-04-30 -20 9 - 1981-04-30 -20 0 - 1968-04-30 -20 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2022-04-30 -3 76 2021-04-30 -3 0 2020-04-30 5 0 2019-04-30 -4 0 2018-04-30 -14 0 2017-04-30 -1 0 2016-04-30 -6 0 2015-04-30 -14 0 2014-04-30 -9 0 2013-04-30 -5 0 2012-04-30 1 1 2011-04-30 -14 1 2010-04-30 -1 3

Today is the 6th anniversary of the first NYC below 0° day since 1994. Only in our post 2010 climate could NYC drop below 0° in February following a +13.3° December. Then we had one of our recent temperature swings to 54° two days later followed 60s on February 20th.

It feels even colder today since it was 62° on Saturday. These big temperature swings are becoming more common. The 46° drop at ISP is the 2nd greatest on record for a 2 day period in February. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hours=42&month=feb&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Yeah, March has been warmer and snowier than December over the last 10 years. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Mar Season Mean 38.9 32.6 33.9 40.3 36.4 2020-2021 37.2 32.9 32.2 42.4 36.2 2019-2020 36.8 37.3 38.2 44.8 39.3 2018-2019 38.1 31.1 34.4 38.7 35.6 2017-2018 33.8 30.1 39.1 38.0 35.3 2016-2017 36.6 36.2 37.8 37.1 36.9 2015-2016 48.4 33.3 35.7 45.5 40.7 2014-2015 39.6 28.7 21.6 35.2 31.3 2013-2014 37.1 27.7 29.7 35.8 32.6 2012-2013 40.5 33.1 32.1 38.3 36.0 2011-2012 40.5 36.2 38.1 47.3 40.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Mar Season Mean 3.0 12.8 12.8 7.9 36.5 2020-2021 7.5 1.1 24.9 T 33.5 2019-2020 4.2 2.5 0.0 T 6.7 2018-2019 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 8.5 2017-2018 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 61.3 2016-2017 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 39.3 2015-2016 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 41.2 2014-2015 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 63.7 2013-2014 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 63.2 2012-2013 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 42.7 2011-2012 T 3.8 0.6 T 4.4

The March volatility has moved up in time to DJF. Now we regularly get 60s and snow close together in the winter. It used to mostly be the domain of March in the old days.

Getting larger flakes now in SW Suffolk as the temperature has risen to 33°.

2” here in SW Suffolk on the cars and grass with the paved surfaces just wet and 32°.

Light accumulation and snow here in SW Suffolk. The temperature is 31°. But it was 60° yesterday so the snow is only sticking on the colder surfaces.

Yeah, more spring in the Rockies with 60s to snow tomorrow. Then our next warm up later in the week. Models have near record February high pressure to our east. So we could get some impressive winds and low topped convection ahead of the storm system.

Continuation of our long term winter rising 60° day count with the 7th 60° day this winter.

The current record high of 61° at ISP beat the old daily record of 55° by a wide margin. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KISP&table=1&num=168&banner=off Islip Area, NYVersion: 16.3 (created 2022-01-24)Period of record: 1963 through 2020 2/12 55 in 1984 54 in 2018 54 in 2009+

Good model agreement on the MJO consolidating near the Maritime Continent into early March with warmer than average temperatures for us and a near record SPV +AO pattern.

This extreme AO volatility from winter to winter is making seasonal forecasting even more challenging.

Models in late January really missed the SPV coupling with the stronger +AO. So we keep beating daily high temperature guidance. New forecast Old forecast

Phase 5 and 6 are both warm in March during a La Niña. Those CPC composites aren’t ENSO specific. The French site has the different MJO phases for ENSO.

This is a great example of how big a difference the AO can make for snowfall distribution across the region. Last winter was +PNA and -AO allowing storms to tuck in closer to the coast. This year is more progressive with the +AO and +PNA since January. The more +AO allows lows to close off and go negative tilt too late. So the storms track further east and ISP does much better than areas further west. This is why it’s easier for jackpots with KU events like last winter to end up closer to NYC and nearby NNJ with - AO.

This MJO wave may be important as to what type of weather patterns we get next winter. El Niño events usually need the MJO to make a strong push into phase 7 in March. That phase in the WPAC usually brings a WWB pattern which warms the Pacific. Both the EPS and GEFS have the MJO going into phases 4-5 for the rest of February and early March. If the MJO stalls out again near phase 6 in early March, then any return to cooler in March will get pushed back. The MJO not making a strong enough push into 7 could also mean the ENSO gets struck in neutral with a La Niña background state possibly remaining entrenched again for next winter.

Record warmth and record snowfall have become the new winter normals on Long Island. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0421 PM EDT THU FEB 10 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 56 WAS SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 54 SET IN 2001. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 616 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2022 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT ISLIP NY FOR JANUARY 29TH... ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT ISLIP NY FOR ANY CALENDAR DAY... A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 23.5 INCHES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY FOR JANUARY 29TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 1.5 INCHES SET IN 2014. THIS SNOWFALL OF 23.5 INCHES ON JANUARY 29TH 2022 ALSO BREAKS THE PREVIOUS CALENDAR DAY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORD OF 23.4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL RECORDED ON JANUARY 23RD 2016. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0206 PM EDT SUN JAN 02 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 58 WAS SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 57 SET IN 2000. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 137 AM EST FRI DEC 17 2021 ...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 52 WAS SET AT ISLIP NY YESTERDAY. THIS BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 49 SET IN 1971. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

Sometimes you just have to laugh.

We are on track for another winter with 20 days or more reaching 50°+.

The winter warmth since the 15-16 winter has been unprecedented in our area. This will be our 7th warmer than average winter in a row. The one month of cold in January was a real outlier. You have to wonder what type of pattern it will take to have a colder than average winter again.