bluewave

Yeah, I posted a tweet on this area yesterday.

We need a west based -NAO -AO and ridge near the Rockies at the same time for higher 12”+ events in NYC. Overpowering +PNAs can work without a -NAO but eastern sections are favored for jackpots like in January 2015 and 2022 Nemo in February 2013 is probably the most unusual set up with a trough in the West. But eastern sections did best and not NYC. I think the more -PNA kept the phase further east. So it’s a combination of factors and the -PNAs in recent years coincided with the -NAOs to diminish our snowfall potential. Strong - NAOs before 2018-2019 more frequently coincided with +PNAs. Composite of 9 events producing 12”+ in NYC since 2003. West based block near Hudson Bay connecting to ridge in Rockies. Also notice the strong 50/50 low. Unusual Nemo Western Trough but Hudson Bay block is present.

A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9

It was a memorable event for the jackpot zones. One heck of a gradient. So at least the colder zones are still getting the heavy totals which were more common in years past.

The study articulates concerns scientists have harbored since the record low noted in 2007 (and since broken in 2012). At the time, some wondered if it was the beginning of an epic collapse. That didn’t happen, but there was no significant rebound, either. Researchers have been reluctant to be too declarative on potential changes to the Arctic sea ice system as a whole because there is so much variability in ice cover from year to year, Meier said. The new study could change that, he said. “They make a pretty good case and put together a lot of data to say, yes, there is a fundamental change and we’re in this new regime,” Meier said.

At least the record MJO 8 delivered for somebody.

Doesn’t really mean much for snow here if the Pacific remains hostile. Starting to see more of these underperforming -NAOs in recent years. The record warm WPAC and NW Atlantic are just too overpowering.

But the low temperature departures and rankings are similar. We can see this when comparing local stations. The UHI affects the actual temperature difference. We know it’s more pronounced on nights with light winds. Below is the winter average low temperatures. When averaged out for all the lows this past winter, the UHI effect was about 4°-5°. Winter DJF Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 35.2 0 2 2022-2023 34.9 0 3 2015-2016 34.7 0 4 2011-2012 34.1 0 - 1997-1998 34.1 0 5 1931-1932 33.6 0 6 2016-2017 33.5 0 7 2019-2020 33.3 0 8 1998-1999 32.3 0 9 1982-1983 32.2 0 10 1990-1991 32.1 0 - 1952-1953 32.1 0 - 1948-1949 32.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 31.1 0 2 1997-1998 30.9 0 3 2022-2023 30.7 0 4 2001-2002 30.2 0 5 2019-2020 30.1 0 6 2011-2012 29.8 0 7 2016-2017 29.3 0 8 1994-1995 28.9 0 - 1982-1983 28.9 0 9 2012-2013 28.2 0 10 1998-1999 27.9 0 - 1996-1997 27.9 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1997-1998 29.9 20 2 2022-2023 29.4 0 3 2015-2016 29.3 0 4 2001-2002 29.2 0 5 2011-2012 29.1 1 6 2016-2017 29.0 1 7 2019-2020 28.3 2 8 1952-1953 27.7 0 9 1998-1999 27.5 23 10 1996-1997 27.3 24 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 27.2 0 2 1931-1932 25.7 2 3 1936-1937 25.3 2 4 2022-2023 25.2 0 5 2011-2012 25.0 1 6 2019-2020 24.5 0 7 1997-1998 24.4 1 8 2001-2002 23.9 0 9 2016-2017 23.8 0 - 1940-1941 23.8 0 10 1952-1953 23.4 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1931-1932 31.3 0 2 2022-2023 29.6 0 3 1997-1998 29.5 0 4 2015-2016 29.3 0 5 2019-2020 29.1 0 6 1936-1937 29.0 0 7 2016-2017 28.8 0 8 2001-2002 28.7 0 9 1974-1975 28.3 0 10 1952-1953 28.2 0

Moderate to heavy snow in SW Suffolk with a coating on colder surfaces and 32.

Thanks, Bx. I know you are in the rescue business I have a great respect for what you guys do after my numerous trips to the ER with my mom. I met so many great people dedicating their lives to the service of others.

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SE Ridge/WAR has been dominant player since 15-16. In the past, we would get on big year like 1950 and then a relaxation. But it has been a continuing theme for 8 consecutive winters. So something completely new for this region.

The whole forecast comes down to getting the ridge axis in the Rockies. The EPS and GEPS have it with the BM track. But the GEFS has more of a Western Trough and storm track too far west.

The SE Ridge has dominated since 15-16. But we were still able to get some bowling balls during 15-16, 16-17, 17-18 , and 20-21. Short on bowling balls overall since the failed El Niño in 18-19.

We get lucky tomorrow with the -PNA and a solid 50/50 low. But we lose the 50/50 later in the week and get a stronger Miller A. Nothing to hold back an amped up Miller A when we have a strong -PNA no matter how strong the -NAO is. So you want a weaker sheared out system to make the late week work.

I probably spoke too soon. This is looking more like a wrapped up Miller A. So notice the stronger -PNA and SE Ridge on todays run. So nothing to stop later runs from coming even further north with such an amped up system. The -NAO block over Eastern Canada is even weaker. New run Old run

Tomorrow is a Miller B. So the CAD came in a little stronger than some of the older runs. There was not much room for it to come north. But the late week storm is more of a Miller A. You want that to be suppressed at this range otherwise it could ride too far north.

Yes and the GFS is always wrong when it is further north than the Euro, CMC, and UKMET.

While the Euro looks overdone on the snowfall, the warmth staying south tomorrow indicates CAD is setting up. Probably favors places in New England. Suppression shouldn’t be an issue with the strong Southeast ridge and primary going near Buffalo.

We could actually get some snow since tomorrow may be the first warmup this year that gets suppressed.

Record Western trough for this time of year.

4 of the top 10 warmest winters since the super El Niño. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2022-2023 41.3 7 3 2015-2016 41.0 0 4 2011-2012 40.5 0 5 1931-1932 40.2 0 6 1997-1998 39.6 0 7 2016-2017 39.3 0 8 2019-2020 39.2 0 9 1990-1991 39.1 0 10 1998-1999 38.6 0

The NAM is known for driving warm fronts too far north.

That may be the best chance NYC has at going over 1” on the season. But confidence in week two forecasts showing colder and snow chances haven’t been reliable this winter. So we wait to see if it can survive until it gets under 120 hrs. We would probably need more of ridge in the Rockies to slow the Pacific Jet down enough. But there is some hint of a ridge trying to form near the Plains. But it’s still a week two forecast.