bluewave

2003 to 2022 Coating to 6…Light 6-12…………Moderate 12-24………Heavy 24-36………Real Accumulations 1979 to 1993 Coating to 3….Light 3-6…………Moderate 6-12…….…Heavy 12-24……..Real Accumulations

The EPS has a colder start to March on the 1st . But warms up a few days later as the -EPO-PNA +AO pumps the SE Ridge. We’ll see if the ridge can build over the pole and drop the -AO during the 2nd week of March. It will have to be strong enough to push back against the SE Ridge.

With the March wavelengths, the -EPO-PNA +AO is warm for us. So we would need some help from a -AO or more +PNA for a cold month. Still to early to tell what the month will look like before we see how the models look next week.

It looks like the SE Ridge will continue to be a player heading into March. The EPS has a colder start to March around the 1st. Then the SE Ridge flexes again and we warm up.

The +PNA WAR pattern has produced rapid temperature changes with the warm ups being more extreme than the cool downs.

Wednesday into the weekend looks like our next chance at approaching a 50° drop.

Winter days reaching 50° or higher have become much more common. This is the 23rd day so far for NYC. Getting over 20 days a winter has become the new normal.

Here comes the next record breaking WPAC storm that’s going to pump the -EPO +PNA block in early March. But it looks like the forcing moving near the Maritime Continent will allow the -PNA to drop a few days later. Then another amplification of the block will allow the Arctic high to press.

Sloppy Presidents week for the ski resorts. Rain well into New England later tomorrow. Followed by a push of 60s right into Maine on Wednesday.

The big CMC upgrade allowed it to move into 2nd place behind the Euro. The UKMET fell back to 3rd and the GFS 4th place. So this matches the 5 day errors we have seen with our storm tracks. The Euro and CMC have been the leaders. The CMC even had that Sunday run back in January which showed the blizzard ahead of the Euro and GFS. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ https://dd.weather.gc.ca/doc/genots/2021/11/26/NOCN03_CWAO_262118___50159 MAJOR UPGRADE OF WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA ON DECEMBER 1, 2021, THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT MAJOR UPGRADES TO ITS WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS. THESE UPDATES ARE THE RESULT OF OVER TWO YEARS OF RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND WILL PERMIT THE ADDITION OF OVER 170 INNOVATIONS IN SOME 31 ATMOSPHERIC, OCEANIC, HYDROLOGICAL, AND SURFACE FORECASTING SYSTEMS. FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE INNOVATIONS AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON SERVICES THAT ARE REALIZED WITH THESE UPGRADES, PLEASE REFER TO THE MSC OPEN DATA WEB PORTAL AT THE FOLLOWING LINK (IN LOWER CASE): HTTPS://ECCC-MSC.GITHUB.IO/OPEN-DATA/MSC-DATA/CHANGELOG_NWP_EN/

Temperatures quickly rebound next several days. Long Island could approach record high temperatures this time. Euro has temperatures well into the 60s even for Long Island right ahead of the cold front on Wednesday.

Maybe a summer preview for the East. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 0730 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2022 ...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES SET FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT JACKSONVILLE FL YESTERDAY... THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE REACHED 72 DEGREES AT JACKSONVILLE ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 18TH. THIS BREAKS THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST FEBRUARY DEW POINT TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 71 DEGREES SET ON 02-24-2019. DEW POINT TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1948 AT JACKSONVILLE.

It’s pretty cool to see the HRRR generate some SBCAPE as the squall comes through this afternoon.

Yeah, it’s the 2nd squall behind that one producing the brief blizzard conditions.

Yeah, this wave break is leading to the -EPO +PNA block that the models are advertising. We saw something similar in early December with record WPAC low and typhoon a few days later. That locked in the record Aleutian Ridge -PNA pattern for all of December. So these wave breaks are key players in our weather patterns. It would be great if we had an artificial intelligence weather model which could identify these wave breaks months in advance.

There are a few different schools of thought on that. One is that the Euro RMM index is weaker than the GFS. But the VP anomalies for both models are identical. So I am not so sure this is a MJO difference. The MJO has been stuck in phase 3 all month. But the La Niña MJO composite shows a much different pattern than we have been getting. This leads me to believe that the MJO is not currently having much influence on the pattern. Remember, the MJO is only one part of the climate system. Sometimes it’s the dominant player and other times it isn’t. Actual pattern much different than MJO would suggest

The EPS has really been leading the way this winter on these big North Pacific blocking intervals. It spotted the late December shift going into January and then the GEFS eventually caught on . The GEFS is correcting toward the stronger EPS idea in recent runs. EPS GEFS has been struggling New run more like the Euro Older run too weak

NYC is +2.7 so far for February. Each cool down is followed by a more impressive warm up. So the coming week will be a continuation following the cool down this weekend. Looks like the month will end on a cold note as a major -EPO +PNA block sets up. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2022-02-01 -4.2 2022-02-02 5.7 2022-02-03 13.1 2022-02-04 7.5 2022-02-05 -11.2 2022-02-06 -10.8 2022-02-07 -0.9 2022-02-08 3.9 2022-02-09 2.7 2022-02-10 10.6 2022-02-11 12.4 2022-02-12 15.2 2022-02-13 -1.9 2022-02-14 -15.1 2022-02-15 -12.8 2022-02-16 2.5 2022-02-17 22.3 2022-02-18 8.6

Another big temperature swing coming up. Colder weekend before more 60°+ potential next week. February battle between the +PNA and WAR. +PNA WAR pattern

The mixing height is about as high as we ever see it around here when the squall comes through on the HRRR tomorrow.

We have had the tree removal crews here numerous times in recent years. Isaias was the recent worst for tree damage. The first big event in 2010 was the March windstorm. This was followed up by the NYC macroburst and tornado in September 2010. Then it was Irene in August 2011 followed by the record October heavy wet snowstorm that damaged so many trees around the region. Quickly followed by Sandy in 2012 with both wind and saltwater damage to trees. Several events after this as we have lost track of all these high wind warning and severe thunderstorm events. There was also a notable severe thunderstorm complex with 80+ winds in June a few summers ago that really clobbered the North Shore. Then we had the recent out of season tornadoes and severe in the fall. So many homeowners are going to small ornamental varieties of trees that won’t do damage to their house or no trees at all.

Trees have really taken a beating since 2010. Probably the worst tree damage for our area over a 10-12 year period. So many weakened trees have already fallen. Plus many homeowners have done removals of trees that were to close to their house. The professional tree cutting business has been booming.

It really comes down to whether the trees are fully leafed out or not. Isaias was the last major power outage here with 75-80 mph gusts with fully leafed out trees. Many fewer outages with this event with gusts in the 60s and bare trees. I believe the last cold season event with more widespread outages was March 2010 with the gusts over 75 mph. But those were fewer than Isaias with the trees still bare in March.

Several models did an excellent job like the SPC HREF. Peak gusts were in the 60-70 mph range here on Long Island. So this one was very well advertised.

The extreme swings in temperature continue to be the big story this month. The 17° hourly record temperature drop EWR earlier the month set a new record for February. This was followed up by a top 10 two day temperature rise of 52° this week to record highs. The record high of 69° was the 7th highest monthly max. Numerous warmest readings were recorded since 2010 with the historic 80° in 2018. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=55&month=feb&dir=warm&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 80 0 2 1949 76 0 3 2017 74 0 - 1997 74 0 - 1954 74 0 4 1985 73 0 5 2011 71 0 6 1999 70 0 - 1939 70 0 7 2022 69 11 - 2008 69 0 - 1991 69 0 - 1981 69 0 - 1953 69 0 8 2019 68 0 - 2002 68 0 - 1989 68 0 - 1976 68 0