bluewave

The statistical sea ice forecast just raised its average extent closer to 5 million sq for September. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/3/waf-d-19-0107.1.xml

It’s been a while since there were so many 105°+ heat index readings in NJ.

Big upwelling event along the Jersey Shore.

The warm spots have been at 90°+ on all but 3 days since July 12th. Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-09 Mesonet 92 73 78 73 99 58 29.93 29.90 0.00 21 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-08 Mesonet 96 73 77 71 98 45 30.08 29.88 0.00 23 SSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-07 Mesonet 93 76 81 68 97 47 30.19 30.05 0.21 29 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-06 Mesonet 94 68 76 67 100 48 30.24 30.13 0.00 37 SSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-05 Mesonet 93 71 75 66 96 43 30.19 30.07 0.00 17 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-04 Mesonet 99 63 74 62 100 40 30.08 29.98 0.78 34 E ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-03 Mesonet 92 65 66 57 91 32 30.03 29.89 0.00 21 NNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-02 Mesonet 94 64 73 63 100 44 29.90 29.78 0.00 19 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-01 Mesonet 79 66 70 65 99 69 30.06 29.86 0.55 11 N ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-31 Mesonet 91 58 69 57 98 35 30.19 30.05 0.00 17 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-30 Mesonet 90 64 70 55 93 33 30.15 29.90 0.00 22 N ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-29 Mesonet 86 68 73 66 99 53 29.94 29.83 0.00 18 NNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-28 Mesonet 94 70 76 66 100 48 29.89 29.77 1.33 27 NNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-27 Mesonet 92 60 68 57 96 35 29.98 29.86 0.00 15 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-26 Mesonet 85 63 74 54 93 36 30.04 29.90 0.00 16 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-25 Mesonet 94 74 76 67 93 47 29.92 29.83 0.00 23 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-24 Mesonet 102 67 73 62 97 29 30.05 29.90 0.00 24 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 Mesonet 101 66 72 56 99 26 30.03 29.93 0.00 19 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-22 Mesonet 99 70 70 57 92 28 29.94 29.73 0.00 20 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-21 Mesonet 100 69 76 63 98 33 29.74 29.62 0.00 26 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-20 Mesonet 100 67 72 65 94 35 29.81 29.68 0.00 24 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-19 Mesonet 94 70 71 64 91 40 29.83 29.74 0.00 23 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-18 Mesonet 97 72 76 70 97 44 30.00 29.73 0.00 31 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-17 Mesonet 90 68 72 65 100 45 30.05 29.97 0.20 14 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-16 Mesonet 92 66 70 58 98 35 30.14 30.00 0.00 15 ESE ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-15 Mesonet 91 60 68 53 95 31 30.15 30.06 0.00 15 SSE ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-14 Mesonet 91 63 69 58 97 36 30.07 29.89 0.00 19 NW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-13 Mesonet 93 67 70 58 95 36 29.91 29.76 0.00 16 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-12 Mesonet 94 60 72 56 98 46 29.87 29.67 0.00 23 SW

White Plains just tied their warmest early morning temperatures above 80° for August. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=HPN&month=aug&var=max_tmpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The higher resolution HRRR has a high of 99° north of the LIE today ahead of the sea breeze front.

The usual warm spots will reach 95°-100° today before the scattered thunderstorms arrive this afternoon.

This was the 3rd warmest July in the US and #1 in parts of NJ and New England.

The 78° dewpoint at Poughkeepsie is 3rd highest on record for August. POUGHKEEPSIE MOSUNNY 86 78 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=POU&var=max_dwpf&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=aug&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Unusually tropical along the Long Island Sound . Upper 70s dewpoints in New Haven and a 105° heat index.The low 80s SSTs are near the warmest we have ever seen them. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=nwhc3 New Haven MOSUNNY 92 77 HX 105

The August monthly minimum has been rising faster at Old Forge in the Adirondacks and Poughkeepsie than NYC since 1950. Old Forge would occasionally drop to 32°or colder before the end of August. That hasn’t happened since the 1980s. Poughkeepsie hasn’t dropped into the 30s in August since then. Same goes for NYC not drooping below 55° in August.

95° heat index by 10am. Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 87 74 HX 95

Several stations from POU to EWR and Freehold-Marlboro are having their warmest July 20th to August 7th. Other sites are a close 2nd. The 2nd place sites can catch up with the heat the next few days when the period is extended to the 9th. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 2022-08-07 79.5 0 2 1933-08-07 78.7 1 3 1955-08-07 78.5 0 4 1995-08-07 78.4 5 5 2020-08-07 77.9 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 2022-08-07 82.3 0 2 1955-08-07 81.5 0 3 1999-08-07 80.4 1 4 2020-08-07 80.3 2 5 2011-08-07 80.1 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 2022-08-07 83.8 0 2 2011-08-07 83.3 0 3 1999-08-07 82.5 0 4 2006-08-07 82.1 0 - 2005-08-07 82.1 0 - 1995-08-07 82.1 0 5 2020-08-07 81.5 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 2022-08-07 83.4 0 2 2020-08-07 82.8 0 - 2005-08-07 82.8 0 3 2006-08-07 82.3 0 4 2011-08-07 81.6 2 5 2019-08-07 81.2 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 1995-08-07 79.3 4 2 2022-08-07 79.0 1 - 1999-08-07 79.0 1 3 1955-08-07 77.9 1 4 1983-08-07 77.8 0 5 2006-08-07 77.7 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 1955-08-07 81.3 0 2 2022-08-07 81.1 0 3 1999-08-07 80.5 0 4 2011-08-07 80.4 0 5 2020-08-07 80.0 0

The rural to suburban stations have been having more impressive low temperatures during this heatwave than places around NYC. While numerous stations set record low maxes on Sunday, HPN came closest to the all-time August monthly warmest minimum temperature at 77°. The 73° low at Sussex County was 2nd warmest also for August. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1988 78 0 2 2022 77 25 - 2006 77 0 - 1985 77 0 3 2016 76 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2001 74 1 2 2022 73 29 3 2021 72 0 - 2020 72 2 - 2016 72 0 - 2010 72 0 - 2006 72 0

Yeah, the Blue Hills Observatory and Nantucket had their warmest July on record. Time Series Summary for BLUE HILL COOP, MA - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.0 0 2 1952 75.7 1 3 2010 75.5 3 4 2013 75.3 0 5 2016 75.2 0 - 1994 75.2 0 Time Series Summary for NANTUCKET MEMORIAL AP, MA - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 73.6 0 2 2013 72.3 0 3 2010 72.2 0 4 1975 72.0 0 5 2021 71.6 1 - 1952 71.6 0

Three record highs at Boston during the last several days as the Gulf of Maine extreme marine heatwave continues.

We’ll see if the Euro frontal wave idea works out this week or it loses it in later runs.

The sea breeze front has been stalling out along the North Shore since early July. So the South Shore has had one of its driest July into early August patterns. These areas may need to wait until the tropics become active to fully end the drought. But there will be opportunities for convection this week as the cold front may develop a wave of low pressure. Data for July 1, 2022 through August 6, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation SYOSSET COOP 5.96 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 5.03 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 4.41 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 4.36 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 3.99 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 3.90 CENTERPORT COOP 3.87 MOUNT SINAI COOP 3.81 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 3.79 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.77 SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.76 NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.60 CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 3.52 ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.38 QUEENS 2.1 NE CoCoRaHS 3.38 SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.12 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3.10 PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 3.05 MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 3.01 FLORAL PARK 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 3.01 NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.88 RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 2.70 JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.68 RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.52 FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 2.36 RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 2.34 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.27 HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 2.09 SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 1.84 STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 1.71 STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.61 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 1.56 MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 1.53 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1.47 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 1.35 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 1.33 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 1.31 BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 1.26 MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 1.12 WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 1.05 JACKSON HEIGHTS 0.3 WSW CoCoRaHS 1.05 ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 0.98 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0.97 CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 0.96 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.94 AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.94 ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.90 AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.87 PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.78 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.75 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 0.74 REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.73 SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 0.72 BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.69 SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.67 COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.50 BLUE POINT 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 0.27

6th warmest July on record in NJ. 8 out of the 10 warmest Julys have occurred since 2010. Nice write-up from the NJ climatologist. Some highlights https://www.njweather.org/content/once-again-hot-and-time-around-dry-july-2022-recap When it comes to recent hot Julys in New Jersey, the beat goes on. This year the heat was joined by quite limited precipitation, something not often seen in recent years. The statewide average temperature of 78.1° was 2.7° above the 1991–2020 normal, ranking 6th warmest since records commenced in 1895. Eight of the ten warmest Julys have occurred since 2010, leaving only 1955 and 1999 as top-ten outliers (Table 1). The statewide average maximum was 88.6° (+2.9°, 6th warmest) and the minimum 67.5° (+2.4°, 4th warmest). Northern counties averaged 75.9° (+2.2°, 9th warmest), southern counties 79.5° (+3.0°, 3rd warmest), and coastal areas 78.8° (+2.6°, tied as 4th warmest). On 24 July days one or more NJWxNet station reached a maximum of 90° or higher. This is just one day fewer than the record-hot July of 2020. Hillsborough-Duke (Somerset County) had 21 days of 90° maximums, one ahead of the Newark Airport station in Elizabeth (Union) and three above New Brunswick (Middlesex). The latter two stations have weather records extending back to 1931 and 1893 and this year experienced, respectively, their 2nd (tied with 1993; +4.4°) and 3rd (+3.1°) hottest Julys. It is no coincidence that these thermal anomalies were among the largest in NJ, given that these stations were among the driest locations. Newark Airport received just 0.55”, the least on record, while New Brunswick saw 0.79”, their second lowest July total. The resulting dry conditions meant that the ground and atmosphere heated up more readily than in wetter locations where there was more evaporation to assist in reducing temperatures. The airport recorded five days with highs of 100°–102°. Occurring consecutively (20th–24th), this marked the longest streak on record. Hillsborough-Duke missed this 100° run by a day, only making it to 99° on the 22nd.

The low of 73° at FWN was just 1° below the all-time warmest since the records began in 2000. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KFWN&hours=72 Maximum 1-Day Mean Min Temperature for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 2000-08-28 to 2022-08-06 1 74.0 2018-07-24 - 74.0 2014-09-02 - 74.0 2001-08-10 2 73.0 2021-06-27 - 73.0 2014-07-15 - 73.0 2011-07-22 - 73.0 2005-07-17 - 73.0 2002-07-29 3 72.0 2021-08-18 - 72.0 2020-08-02

We may be able to get a break from the 75-80° lows and 95-100° highs after Wednesday. The EPS brings a weak trough into the region by later Wednesday into Thursday. It continues with this weak trough theme days 6-10 and 11-15.

The low of 78° at White Plains was only 3° off the all-time warmest of 81°. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khpn Aug 7, 7:56 am 80 76 87 86 5 10.00 BKN018 1021.70 29.80 30.20 81 78 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 81 58 2 2013 78 1 - 2011 78 2 - 1995 78 85 - 1988 78 5

Looks like roost rings. https://www.weather.gov/grb/081110_roostring

Even our northern suburbs are having trouble dropping much below the upper 70s for near record warm minimums this morning with the high dewpoints. White Plains PTCLDY 79 76 90 CALM 30.18S Larchmont Harb N/A 79 N/A N/A S10 N/A Croton On Huds N/A 79 N/A N/A S6 N/A Danbury CLEAR 79 73 82 SW6

The record highs are occurring to our north in the August heatwave so far.