bluewave

Several of our stations are near the top of the list for July heat and lack of rainfall. Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 79.7 0 - 1955 79.7 0 3 2022 79.2 3 4 2013 79.1 0 5 2020 79.0 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1910 0.31 0 2 1944 0.68 0 3 2022 0.77 3 4 1968 0.85 0 5 1999 0.99 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82.7 2 - 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 0.55 2 2 1932 0.84 0 3 1966 0.89 0 4 1999 1.01 0 5 1955 1.14 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 3 2022 76.9 2 - 2020 76.9 0 4 2019 76.8 0 5 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1954 0.46 0 2 1970 0.54 0 3 1966 0.69 0 4 2002 0.71 0 5 1998 0.97 0 6 1999 1.03 0 7 2022 1.10 2 8 1974 1.29 0 9 1957 1.41 0 10 2012 1.54 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 80.6 0 2 2010 79.7 0 3 2022 78.4 3 4 2013 78.1 0 5 2011 78.0 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 0.49 3 2 2013 1.15 2 - 2002 1.15 0 3 2011 1.35 0 4 2012 1.49 0 5 2015 1.76 1 Time Series Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1998 0.23 18 2 1968 0.28 0 3 2022 0.31 6 4 1966 0.34 0 5 2018 0.68 15

Pretty extreme variations this month between 1000 year rainfall events in St Louis and Kentucky and other areas with one of their driest Julys.

Any small amount of moisture we get will dry up pretty quickly with the 100°+ heat being advertised by later next week.

The Cocorahs reports are very reliable. But when you see a 0, it means the station hasn’t reported. All of the other stations that are under .50 in my area of the South Shore are correct. You can see the Montclair station hasn’t updated when you compare it to the surrounding stations that did.

Pretty extreme to go from 20 stations over 10.00” last July to more than 20 under .50 this year so far. Monthly Data for July 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 14.76 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 12.54 CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 12.06 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 11.43 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 11.09 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 11.04 CT WESTPORT 2.5 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.01 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.98 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.75 CT DARIEN 1.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.71 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.68 CT STAMFORD 4.2 S CoCoRaHS 10.62 CT DURHAM 2.2 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.58 NY QUEENS 3.7 N CoCoRaHS 10.54 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.48 NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 10.32 CT WEST HAVEN 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 10.29 CT REDDING 1.4 E CoCoRaHS 10.25 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.24 NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 10.13 CT KILLINGWORTH 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 10.07 Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY BLUE POINT 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 0.15 CT IVORYTON 0.9 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.15 NY LARCHMONT 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.18 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.19 NY COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.21 NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.22 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.24 NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.26 NY SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 0.30 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.30 NY PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.31 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 0.31 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 0.32 NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.32 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 0.34 NY AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.35 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.37 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.39 CT NEW HAVEN 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.39 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 0.41 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.41 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 0.44 NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 0.46 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.46 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 0.49

The tropics probably won’t start to become more active until the mid-lat dry air intrusions relax.

80° Julys used to only be common around DC before 2010. Now they regularly extend up to NYC Metro. One of these years Hartford will have their first 80° July. They came very close in 2020. Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 82.8 NJ HARRISON COOP 81.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 81.1 Monthly Data for July 2022 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 82.2 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 81.1 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 81.0 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 80.8 DE DOVER COOP 80.5 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 80.1 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 80.0 Monthly Data for July 2022 for Baltimore MD/Washington DC NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature MD ST INIGOES WEBSTER NAVAL OUTLYING FIELD WBAN 82.3 MD PATUXENT RIVER NAS WBAN 81.3 VA WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 81.2 VA QUANTICO MCAS WBAN 80.6 DC NATIONAL ARBORETUM DC COOP 80.5 MD BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 80.4 MD REISTERSTOWN 2 NW COOP 80.1 Hardford came close in 2020 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD BRAINARD FIELD, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.3 0 2 2010 78.8 0 3 2016 78.7 2 4 2013 78.6 0 5 2022 77.9 3 6 2011 77.6 0 7 2019 77.3 1 8 1949 76.8 0 9 2012 76.7 0 - 2006 76.7 0 10 2018 76.6 0

Las Vegas traded places with Newark for the heavy rainfall this month.

Harrison is having their warmest July so far also. But the heavier rains than Newark kept them a degree cooler. Even if they miss the top spot, it will still be close. Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81.7 3 2 2020 81.5 0 3 2019 81.4 0 4 2012 81.2 2 5 2010 81.1 2 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1999 0.64 0 2 2002 1.32 0 3 1998 1.45 0 4 2022 1.76 6

Newark is currently the warmest and driest July on record with a few days to go. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82.9 3 2 2011 82.7 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2013 80.9 0 7 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 8 2019 80.6 0 9 1955 80.5 0 10 1988 80.4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 0.54 3 2 1932 0.84 0 3 1966 0.89 0 4 1999 1.01 0 5 1955 1.14 0 6 2002 1.19 0 7 1974 1.31 0 8 1998 1.34 0 9 1954 1.45 0 10 1977 1.51 0 - 1957 1.51 0

Lake Superior will be the only unusually cool spot surrounded by near record early August heat. 3rd coldest Lake Superior behind 2014 and 1996 in late July since 1995 https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150107/a-lake-of-superior-cold

That wouldn’t be enough considering how many locations are having one of their driest Julys after a dry June. It’s tough to break a drought with scattered convection. So many 90° and 100° days really dry things out fast this time of year. We generally need a tropical system or a super soaker non tropical event like August 2011 to break a summer drought. Plus our deficit started in June with some spots at 25% of normal rainfall. So the driest areas are running -5.00 to -6.00 inches below normal since June 1st.

80° Julys used to be rare at our warmest urban stations. Now they are occurring frequently since 2010. Newark and Harrison are having their warmest July so far. LGA is in 6th place due to a stronger onshore flow influence this month. For our more rural locations like White Plains, it’s the 76° mark which has become very common since 2010. The 76.8° average this month is the 4th highest for July. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82.8 4 2 2011 82.7 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2013 80.9 0 7 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 8 2019 80.6 0 9 1955 80.5 0 10 1988 80.4 0 11 2002 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81.7 3 2 2020 81.5 0 3 2019 81.4 0 4 2012 81.2 2 5 2010 81.1 2 6 2002 80.9 0 7 2013 80.7 0 8 2011 80.5 3 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 82.9 0 2 2010 82.8 0 3 1999 81.9 0 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2022 81.1 4 - 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 11 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 12 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 3 2020 76.9 0 4 2022 76.8 4 - 2019 76.8 0 5 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 6 2011 76.6 1 17 2012 76.4 0 8 2016 76.3 0 - 1983 76.3 1 9 1952 76.2 0 - 1949 76.2 0 10 1995 76.0 6

Central NJ got an upgrade to D1 moderate drought today. Much of Long Island was added to D0 dry. Severe D2 drought expanded in Eastern New England.

More of the same with this convection as most places picked up less than .25. Only .19 at Wantagh and closer to .10 in other spots. So just enough to wet the ground here.

The vegetation on the Long Island South Shore is as brown as in this drone video from Central NJ.

La Niña summers that start out hot and dry usually turn wetter by later in summer or early in the fall.

Parts of the area may get upgraded from D0 to D1 as soon as tomorrow. Then maybe a D2 could be possible in early August with more heat. Hopefully, we shift to a wetter pattern before getting anywhere near 2001-2002 levels. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx

Hopefully, we can pick up some rains with the hit or miss convection next few days. The drought models are expanding the drought conditions next week. So looking like our next 100°+ heat potential will be in early August. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php US Hazards OutlookNWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD300 PM EDT July 26 2022Synopsis: Dynamical models continue to depict an expanding area of mid-level high pressure over the central CONUS during the week-2 period which shifts eastward as the week progresses, resulting in an elevated threat of excessive heat for much of the CONUS east of the Rocky Mountains, especially for the Central and Northern Plains, and the Midwest early in the forecast period and expanding into the Northeast later in the period. When coupled with a below-average precipitation forecast, drought development is possible for portions of the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Valley, as well as for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and the lower Hudson River Valley. Rapid-onset drought possible for portions of Iowa, southern Minnesota, eastern Nebraska, and eastern South Dakota, as well as eastern Pennsylvania, central and northern New Jersey, and southeastern New York.

The only good news for the NYC late July minimum temperature is that it’s increasing at a slower rate than areas to our north like POU.

We probably have to wait a while longer this season for a drought busting tropical system. Much slower start to this year than the last two. The thick SAL layer continues to dominate the tropics.

Yeah, textbook rapid warm up after the radiational cooling inversion. https://theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/720/ At night, the ground emits longwave radiation while not absorbing solar shortwave radiation. This causes a cooling of the Earth’s surface. The Earth’s surface in turn cools the air just above it. This process is most intense when there are clear skies and light wind. The diagram below shows characteristics of the radiational cooling inversion. The inversion layer is shallow and the temperature warms rapidly with height above the ground surface. These situations can cause low temperatures to be colder than expected at the surface. It can also result in a very rapid warm up when the sun comes up since, along with the solar warming, the convective turbulence will pick up causing the much warmer air aloft to mix out the shallow cold air at the surface.

I can remember after the 100° heat in July 1977 when NYC dropped into the 50s and POU the 40s. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-21 104 78 1977-07-22 88 68 1977-07-23 87 62 1977-07-24 90 70 1977-07-25 78 70 1977-07-26 82 62 1977-07-27 81 58 1977-07-28 80 62 Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-21 100 72 1977-07-22 80 54 1977-07-23 84 48 1977-07-24 90 56 1977-07-25 75 63 1977-07-26 76 52 1977-07-27 76 47 1977-07-28 78 47

The EPS and GEFS both agree on our next 100° potential in early August as a 594dm+ heat dome builds near the region. This is the kind of pattern where the OP models have a windshield wiper effect from 12z to 0z. One of the runs is always warmer but the ensemble mean holds steady with the strong heat signal.

The actual GFS forecast had low 80s for Manhattan today. Those weatherbell charts are always off. So it’s a quality control issue in the way they generate their model forecast charts.