bluewave

Radar estimates of 2.00 inch rainfall amounts where the best training set up today.

Short dry patterns have been the rule with our much warmer SSTs and higher dewpoints. The SSTs were much cooler for the last significant drought in 1999-2002. The 500 year drought in the 1960s had very cold SSTs.

An average July at LGA is 79.2 with the new much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. That new normal is the 17th highest temperature recorded for July. So it puts 2022 currently at 14th warmest with less than a +1 departure so far. LGA will only need a +1.4 departure by the end of the month to make it into the top 10 warmest. So while departures are useful for recent temperature comparisons, they don’t really work well for comparisons to our climate before 2010. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-monthly&timeframe=30&location=NY&station=USW00014732 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 82.9 +3.7 2 2010 82.8 0 3 1999 81.9 0 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 +1.4 11 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 12 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 13 2018 79.8 0 - 1995 79.8 0 14 2022 79.6 15 2002 79.5 0 16 1949 79.4 0 17 2015 79.2 Normal

The higher dewpoints and mid 70s SSTs are doing their job. Some spots have picked up over 1.00” this morning. We’ll probably see more widespread convection in the coming days.

Yeah, the usual warm spots around the region on the Euro make a run on 100°. Even the Long Island North Shore goes over 95°. But the highest dewpoints should be closest to the coast.

Next week looks like and unusual similarity between our pattern and the one in the UK. Both heatwaves are getting an assist from a closed low to the west pumping in the heat from a drought region. While the one in the UK can deliver all-time heat, parts of our area may approach 100°. These type of concurrent heat waves are becoming more common. 850 mb temperatures in excess of +20C in both regions

The Euro is going for 15 named storms with the bulk of the activity from the Gulf to the Carolinas near the warmest SST anomalies.

Unfortunately, that’s always the case with their maps. But we can use XMACIS2 for the individual stations. The sea breeze has kept the maximum temperatures down on Long Island so far. Places like White Plains and Danbury are having one of their warmest Julys for maximum temperatures. The Danbury record is shorter starting in 1998. Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 14 Missing Count 1 2010-07-14 87.3 0 2 2012-07-14 86.8 0 3 2022-07-14 86.0 0 4 2018-07-14 85.5 0 5 1999-07-14 85.0 5 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 14 Missing Count 1 1966-07-14 91.8 0 2 2012-07-14 88.3 0 3 2010-07-14 88.0 0 4 1993-07-14 87.6 0 5 1955-07-14 86.9 0 6 2018-07-14 86.4 0 7 2022-07-14 85.9 0 - 1994-07-14 85.9 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 14 Missing Count 1 1966-07-14 90.9 0 2 2010-07-14 87.8 0 3 1993-07-14 87.1 0 4 1999-07-14 86.9 0 5 2012-07-14 86.6 0 6 2019-07-14 86.5 0 7 1994-07-14 86.0 0 8 1974-07-14 85.7 0 9 2011-07-14 85.6 0 10 2018-07-14 84.7 0 - 2002-07-14 84.7 0 11 2013-07-14 84.4 0 12 2020-07-14 84.1 0 13 2014-07-14 83.6 0 - 1997-07-14 83.6 0 14 2022-07-14 83.5 0

The coming higher dewpoints will allow the minimum temperature departures to catch up to the warmer maximum departures.

The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all begin to finally weaken the blocking pattern during the 2nd half of July. So the 50/50 low confluence that has been keeping us dry is set to relax. This means the 2nd half of July will be wetter than the 1st half. It continues to look like several surges of 95°+ heat between July 20th and 31st. The local warm spots may be able to make a run on 100°.

Sea breeze fronts usually start producing for the South Shore when the SSTs reach the mid 70s south of Long Island. NY Harb Entrance 2050 74 20 S Fire Island 2050 74 Great South Bay 2030 23 SSW Montauk P 2050 15 E Barnegat Li 1956 76

The climate models predict a local cooling effect near Northern Greenland and the Central Arctic during summers later in the century. This may be related to a weakening AMOC. But the Northern Hemisphere land masses continue to warm. The provided link below has a very interesting recorded presentation on the topic. So the Arctic may still have some summer sea ice north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago later this century. https://ams.confex.com/ams/94Annual/webprogram/Paper235210.html https://ams.confex.com/ams/94Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/25848?recordingid=25848 Tuesday, 4 February 2014: 11:30 AM Room C101 (The Georgia World Congress Center ) Stephen J. Vavrus, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Francis Recorded Presentation Climate models typically simulate enhanced heating and pronounced drying during summer over mid-latitude continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere under greenhouse forcing. Various plausible explanations have been offered for this response, including strengthened land-sea temperature contrasts, favorable SST patterns, and locally depleted soil moisture. Changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation have also been proposed, but these have generally been regarded as secondary mechanisms originating in low and middle latitudes. Here we present an alternative perspective, by proposing that a major reason for the mid-latitude continental response is an atmospheric circulation change that is regulated by high-latitude processes. Based on an analysis of the RCP8.5 scenario in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), we find that the amplified heating ( > 7 K) and drying ( > 20%) of the U. S. Great Plains during summer stems from a shift toward locally weakened westerlies aloft and somewhat stronger northerlies. This circulation change is directly tied to enhanced ridging to the north of the region that is part of a nearly hemispheric-wide band of ridging in high latitudes extending from Eurasia across North America. This band of maximum geopotential height increases aloft is well correlated with the location of greatest summertime snow cover loss in northern Siberia and North America. The circulation pattern appears to be further modulated in high latitudes by residual sea ice coverage around the Canadian Archipelago and by a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Both of these changes promote troughing locally around northeastern Canada and thus a southward displacement over North America of the high-latitude ridging band to a location where its outflow favors drier and hotter conditions in the continental interior. The resulting circulation shift affects not only the mean summertime climate but also sets up very suitable synoptic conditions for extreme weather events in the form of droughts and heat waves.

It all comes down to how much blocking we get. The La Niña influence during the winter is a SE Ridge/WAR pattern. The 20-21 La Niña featured strong blocking that merged with a piece of the WAR east of New England.This allowed 40”+ at Newark. Last winter the SE Ridge/WAR was the dominant pattern. So only parts of Long Island had record January snowfall with the progressive +PNA +AO. The 17-18 La Niña had more blocking than 16-17 so it was snowier. 11-12 was a disappointment since the +EPO ran the table. Our last La Niña when the blocking erased the SE Ridge influence was 10-11 with 60”+ at Newark in just 33 days. It was also the last time we had a cold La Niña winter.

We got officially included in the D0 dry category today.

Yeah, this La Niña background state has been on steroids since the super El Niño . July temperature departures across the area would probably be +3 to +5 at all local stations if the blocking wasn’t suppressing the La Nina ridge to our SW. Those big departures are setting up over the Plains. But we are getting a dry NW flow aloft between the block and 50/50 low.

Lowest dewpoint July so far at JFK since before the super El Niño. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=JFK&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Maybe a problem with the solar radiation shield at Newark since the lows are in line with Harrison but diverge once the sun comes up?

You are ahead of the game. Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ RIVER EDGE 0.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ VERONA TWP 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ LIVINGSTON TWP 2.0 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ WAYNE TWP 2.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NY FLORAL PARK 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 0.00 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT WESTPORT 2.5 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NY SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT TRUMBULL 1.2 S CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT BRIDGEPORT 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ MAPLEWOOD TWP 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NY STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 0.00 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT MADISON CENTER 4.1 N CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.00 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 0.00

Driest start to July at Farmingdale with just .01 since the records began in 2000. The only good news is that we haven’t had any 90° days this month to dry things out further. I can remember July 99 having the brownest lawns with almost no rain and frequent 90s and several 100° days. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Jul 12 Missing Count 1 2022-07-12 0.01 0 2 2018-07-12 0.11 0 3 2000-07-12 0.16 0 4 2008-07-12 0.17 0 5 2015-07-12 0.28 1 6 2012-07-12 0.30 0 7 2002-07-12 0.43 0 8 2019-07-12 0.49 0 9 2011-07-12 0.53 0 10 2003-07-12 0.54 0 11 2013-07-12 0.65 0 12 2017-07-12 0.69 0 13 2014-07-12 1.16 0 14 2001-07-12 1.17 0 15 2010-07-12 1.21 0 16 2007-07-12 1.50 0 17 2004-07-12 1.54 0 18 2020-07-12 1.76 0 19 2005-07-12 2.01 0 20 2016-07-12 2.22 0 21 2021-07-12 2.70 0 22 2006-07-12 2.93 0 23 2009-07-12 2.94 0 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Daily Data For a Month July 2022 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 84 67 75.5 1.8 0 11 0.00 M M 2 86 73 79.5 5.6 0 15 T M M 3 86 69 77.5 3.4 0 13 0.00 M M 4 83 63 73.0 -1.3 0 8 0.00 M M 5 82 68 75.0 0.6 0 10 0.01 M M 6 86 71 78.5 3.9 0 14 0.00 M M 7 80 67 73.5 -1.3 0 9 0.00 M M 8 81 64 72.5 -2.4 0 8 T M M 9 86 68 77.0 2.0 0 12 0.00 M M 10 82 65 73.5 -1.7 0 9 0.00 M M 11 81 63 72.0 -3.3 0 7 0.00 M M 12 83 69 76.0 0.6 0 11 0.00 M M

Yeah, already gusting close to 30 mph on the South Shore as the sea breeze cranks up. Wantagh N/A 77 70 78 S14G28

Big Ambrose Jet day as the best heat sets up over NJ and interior SE NY again. Much cooler near the South Shore with wind gusts to 35mph. So plenty of blowing sand and dangerous rip currents at the beach today.

While the rate of extent loss has slowed since 2007-2012, the multiyear ice levels continue to run near all-time lows. So the 2007-2012 era shifted the ice to a much thinner state. It’s easier for the winds to push the mostly first year ice around and cause big yearly extent variations like 2012-2013 and 2020-2021. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/with-thick-ice-gone-arctic-sea-ice-changes-more-slowly The Arctic Ocean's sea ice blanket has already lost most of its old ice and two-thirds of its thickness. The younger ice is thinning more slowly and variably. The Arctic Ocean's blanket of sea ice has changed since 1958 from predominantly older, thicker ice to mostly younger, thinner ice, according to new research published by NASA scientist Ron Kwok of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. With so little thick, old ice left, the rate of decrease in ice thickness has slowed. New ice grows faster but is more vulnerable to weather and wind, so ice thickness is now more variable, rather than dominated by the effect of global warming. Working from a combination of satellite records and declassified submarine sonar data, NASA scientists have constructed a 60-year record of Arctic sea ice thickness. Right now, Arctic sea ice is the youngest and thinnest its been since we started keeping records. More than 70 percent of Arctic sea ice is now seasonal, which means it grows in the winter and melts in the summer, but doesn't last from year to year. This seasonal ice melts faster and breaks up easier, making it much more susceptible to wind and atmospheric conditions. Kwok's research, published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters, combined decades of declassified U.S. Navy submarine measurements with more recent data from four satellites to create the 60-year record of changes in Arctic sea ice thickness. He found that since 1958, Arctic ice cover has lost about two-thirds of its thickness, as averaged across the Arctic at the end of summer. Older ice has shrunk in area by almost 800,000 square miles (more than 2 million square kilometers). Today, 70 percent of the ice cover consists of ice that forms and melts within a single year, which scientists call seasonal ice. Sea ice of any age is frozen ocean water. However, as sea ice survives through several melt seasons, its characteristics change. Multiyear ice is thicker, stronger and rougher than seasonal ice. It is much less salty than seasonal ice; Arctic explorers used it as drinking water. Satellite sensors observe enough of these differences that scientists can use spaceborne data to distinguish between the two types of ice. Thinner, weaker seasonal ice is innately more vulnerable to weather than thick, multiyear ice. It can be pushed around more easily by wind, as happened in the summer of 2013. During that time, prevailing winds piled up the ice cover against coastlines, which made the ice cover thicker for months. The ice's vulnerability may also be demonstrated by the increased variation in Arctic sea ice thickness and extent from year to year over the last decade. In the past, sea ice rarely melted in the Arctic Ocean. Each year, some multiyear ice flowed out of the ocean into the East Greenland Sea and melted there, and some ice grew thick enough to survive the melt season and become multiyear ice. As air temperatures in the polar regions have warmed in recent decades, however, large amounts of multiyear ice now melt within the Arctic Ocean itself. Far less seasonal ice now thickens enough over the winter to survive the summer. As a result, not only is there less ice overall, but the proportions of multiyear ice to seasonal ice have also changed in favor of the young ice. Seasonal ice now grows to a depth of about six feet (two meters) in winter, and most of it melts in summer. That basic pattern is likely to continue, Kwok said. "The thickness and coverage in the Arctic are now dominated by the growth, melting and deformation of seasonal ice." The increase in seasonal ice also means record-breaking changes in ice cover such as those of the 1990s and 2000s are likely to be less common, Kwok noted. In fact, there has not been a new record sea ice minimum since 2012, despite years of warm weather in the Arctic. "We've lost so much of the thick ice that changes in thickness are going to be slower due to the different behavior of this ice type," Kwok said. Kwok used data from U.S. Navy submarine sonars from 1958 to 2000; satellite altimeters on NASA's ICESat and the European CryoSat-2, which span from 2003 to 2018; and scatterometer measurements from NASA's QuikSCAT and the European ASCAT from 1999 to 2017.

The slower melting over the last few weeks caused the model to come in a little higher at 4.68 million sq km for the September average extent.

I can still remember the old days when the Central Park thermometer was in the open at the castle and not in the shade like today under the trees. The open part of Central Park where the equipment was in the 70s was warmer than LGA at the time. I got a laugh from this old article in 1977 saying the NWS didn’t want to substitute the cooler LGA readings during the summer. If we had the Central Park ASOS on the Great Lawn today, it would be warmer than LGA but cooler than EWR. https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

Blocking is always the wild card. The winter of 20-21 was the first in this multi-year event. We got 3 winter months that the blocking overpowered the La Niña influence. Even though it was a snowy winter, the unusually south based block kept us warmer than average. Last winter began with one of the most extreme La Niña Decembers with the record low -PNA. January had a dramatic La Niña reversal with the NE PAC block dominating. Then back to La Niña in February. So a one month wonder winter. It will be interesting to see what influence becomes dominant on a month to month basis this coming winter.