bluewave

The blocking is preventing the extreme heat in those areas from coming north like it did in 2011.

Hopefully, some of this blocking can carryover to next winter. We really could have used it last winter with the progressive storm tracks. So it continues to look like July 1st will be the hottest day for a while.

600 DM heat dome forecast for the West exactly where they don’t need it.

Today makes 5 out of 6 Saturdays during the 2020s with measurable rain on the Memorial Day and July 4 weekends. 5-23-20….rain 7-4-20……no rain 5-29-21…..rain 7-3-21……rain 5-28-22….rain 7-2-22……rain

Could start to see flooding in the locations that get the best training.

2nd round of thunderstorms in progress across Long Island following the storms earlier today. So the higher dewpoints and sea breeze boundaries east of NYC are doing their job.

Highest dewpoints of the year so far on Long Island. Farmingdale PTSUNNY 83 73 72 SW10 29.92S MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 82 74 76 S10 29.92S

Essex County NJ around Newark and Queens County NY are the warmest parts of our region. Both locations are built up urban areas. They can get downslope flow which adds to the heat. Harrison and Newark airport have the most #1s. But Corona Queens tied Newark last year for the annual max at 103°. Since the NYC micronet is new, we don’t know how many years Queens would have tied or beat the area around Newark. OKX Forecast zones warmest annual temperatures since 2010 Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 Corona Queens 103 Data for January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NY MATTITUCK COOP 98 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 97 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 97 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 97 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 97 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 97 Data for January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2019 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ HARRISON COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 99 Data for January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ HARRISON COOP 101 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 101 NY WEST POINT COOP 99 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 99 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 99 Data for January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2017 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 98 NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 98 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 98 Data for January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2016 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100 NJ HARRISON COOP 100 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 100 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 99 Data for January 1, 2015 through December 31, 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100 NJ HARRISON COOP 99 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 Data for January 1, 2014 through December 31, 2014 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NJ HARRISON COOP 95 Data for January 1, 2013 through December 31, 2013 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ HARRISON COOP 102 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 Data for January 1, 2012 through December 31, 2012 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 103 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 103 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 102 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 101 Data for January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 104 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 104 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 106 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106

Harrison and Hoboken topped out at 97°.The industrial area around the airport is usually the hottest part of the region on a SW to W downslope flow. Brooklyn and Queens were slightly cooler due to the very strong onshore flow east of NYC. Newark Internation Observation Time: 07/02/22 @ 09:35 EDT 13:35 UTC Elevation: 16 ft OK Weather Conditions Temperature: 84 °F Dew Point: 72 °F Humidity: 66 % Wind: WSW at 8 MPH 24 Hour Max/Min Events Max Temperature: 99 °F Min Temperature: 79 °F Max RH: 74.19 % Min RH: 23.92 % Max Dew Point: 72 °F Min Dew Point: 55 °F Max Gust: 44 MPH HSNN4 Harrison Observation Time: 07/02/22 @ 09:30 EDT 13:30 UTC Elevation: 23 ft OK Weather Conditions Temperature: 82 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 74 % Peak Gust: 3 MPH 24 Hour Max/Min Events Max Temperature: 97 °F Min Temperature: 78 °F Max RH: 82 % Min RH: 33 % Max Dew Point: 74 °F Min Dew Point: 63 °F Max Gust: 10 MPH FW1417 Hoboken Observation Time: 07/02/22 @ 09:37 EDT 13:37 UTC Elevation: 13 ft OK Weather Conditions Temperature: 83 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 71 % Wind: S at 1 MPH Peak Gust: 7 MPH 24 Hour Max/Min Events Max Temperature: 97 °F Min Temperature: 78 °F Max RH: 79 % Min RH: 33 % Max Dew Point: 73 °F Min Dew Point: 62 °F Max Gust: 21 MPH Astoria 96 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 96

Several other spots around Philly have hit 100° in recent years. Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 100 Data for January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2019 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 101 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 100 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 100 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 100 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 Data for January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 101 NJ ATSION COOP 101 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 100 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 100 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 100

We don’t rally have any analogs for so much water vapor injected into the stratosphere. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381 Following the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, several trace gases measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) displayed anomalous stratospheric values. Trajectories and radiance simulations confirm that the H2O, SO2, and HCl enhancements were injected by the eruption. In comparison with those from previous eruptions, the SO2 and HCl mass injections were unexceptional, although they reached higher altitudes. In contrast, the H2O injection was unprecedented in both magnitude (far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year MLS record) and altitude (penetrating into the mesosphere). We estimate the mass of H2O injected into the stratosphere to be 146 ± 5 Tg, or ∼10% of the stratospheric burden. It may take several years for the H2O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H2O. Key Points Following the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measured enhancements of stratospheric H2O, SO2, and HCl The mass of SO2 and HCl injected is comparable to that from prior eruptions, whereas the magnitude of the H2O injection is unprecedented Excess stratospheric H2O will persist for years, could affect stratospheric chemistry and dynamics, and may lead to surface warming The violent Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption on 15 January 2022 not only injected ash into the stratosphere but also large amounts of water vapor, breaking all records for direct injection of water vapor, by a volcano or otherwise, in the satellite era. This is not surprising since the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai caldera was formerly situated 150 m below sea level. The massive blast injected water vapor up to altitudes as high as 53 km. Using measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder on NASA's Aura satellite, we estimate that the excess water vapor is equivalent to around 10% of the amount of water vapor typically residing in the stratosphere. Unlike previous strong eruptions, this event may not cool the surface, but rather it could potentially warm the surface due to the excess water vapor.

Yeah, the all-time highs set back in 2010 and 2011 have been tough to challenge. My guess is that it has been too wet since then to reach those levels. Drought feedback is very important for all-time highs. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 104 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 104 CT DANBURY COOP 104 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 103 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 103 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 102 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 102 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 102 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 102 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 101 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 101 NY BRONX COOP 101 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 101 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 100 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 100 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 100 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 100 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 100 CT BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL COOP 100

Highs around the region today… ALB….95° POU…94° EWR….99° Harrison…97° Hoboken…97° LGA….93° NYC….91°

Yeah, models don’t do very well with ENSO forecasts for the following winter this early. The main thing that everyone is interested in is whether there will be blocking or not. That is usually unknown until the winter starts.

Harrison is catching up and is 97° now. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=C1099&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL 15:45 97.0

It’s driven by the differential heating between the land and the water. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/138/6/2009mwr3231.1.xml 5. Summary and conclusions High-resolution observations and model simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used to understand the structural evolution, dynamics, and climatology of a low-level jet over the coastal waters of the New York Bight (NYB) region. A 1997–2006 climatology of the jet using hourly data from a tower (ALSN6) and a buoy (44025) in the NYB shows that the jet is most common during the warm season (June–July peak), with a skew in the monthly distribution toward spring, since the jet is driven by the differential heating between land and water. About 28% of the events have winds greater than 13 m s−1 (25 kt), which meets or exceeds the small craft advisory wind conditions for the National Weather Service. The wind directions for the jet trace out an elliptical orbit for the 24-h period around the jet maximum, which is at 2300 UTC (1800 LST) on average. In addition to the inertial forces, there is also an increasing west-northwest–east-southeast-directed pressure gradient that peaks 1–3 h before the time of maximum southerly wind. This 1–3-h delay is qualitatively consistent with geostrophic adjustment. Spatial composites reveal that the NYB jet occurs when there is large-scale southwesterly flow around a Bermuda high and a short-wave ridge along the East Coast. The composites also illustrate that the

Unusually strong Ambrose Jet today near the South Shore beaches. Models have 30 to 40 mph gusts. So plenty of blowing sand for people trying to escape the heat further to the west today. Watch out for dangerous rip currents.

July 1st looks like it will be our warmest day for a while. The ridge pulls back to the west again from the 5th to at least the 11th. So still no sign of the ridge locking in near the Northeast like we have seen in recent summers.

The rate of June warming in our area has been slower than December. The strongest heat in the Plains this month matches the trend. We can also see less cooling in the Northeast and Northwest. But last June was a big outlier.

The North Shore was the big rainfall jackpot winner this month with the 2nd wettest June since records began at Mount Sinai in 2010. Time Series Summary for MOUNT SINAI, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2013 9.57 0 2 2022 6.73 1 3 2012 6.65 0 4 2011 5.10 0 5 2015 4.86 0 6 2019 4.61 0 7 2017 3.78 0 8 2018 2.92 0 9 2014 2.91 0 10 2021 2.02 0 11 2010 2.01 1 12 2016 1.60 0 13 2020 1.15 0

The early forecasts based on the May conditions in the Arctic are forecasting an average September extent in the 4.3 to 4.5 million sq km range.The 15 year era from 2007 to 2021 featured 10 out of 15 years finishing in the 4s. Only two years finished below 4.00 million sq km. With just three finishing slightly above 5.00 million sq km. September 2022 forecast https://www.arcus.org/files/sio/33269/cpom_ucl_gregory_et_al.pdf This statistical model computes a forecast of pan-Arctic September sea ice extent . Monthly averaged May sea ice concentration and sea-surface temperature fields between 1979 and 2022 were used to create a climate network (based on the approach of Gregory et al 2020). This was then utilised in a Bayesian Linear Regression in order to forecast September extent. The model predicts a pan-Arctic extent of 4.5 million square kilometres. Sea ice concentration data were taken from NSIDC (Cavalieri et al., 1996; Maslanik and Stroeve,1999) and sea-surface temperature data were taken from ERA5 (Hersbach et al., 2019) Brief explanation of Outlook method (using 300 words or less). Monthly averaged May sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea-surface temperature (SST) data between 1979 and 2022 were used to create a May SIC-SST climate(complex) network. Individual SIC grid cells were first clustered into regions of spatio-temporal homogeneity (and similarly for SST) by using a community detection algorithm (see Gregory et al, 2020). Links between each of these network regions (covariance) were then passed into a Bayesian Linear Regression to derive an estimate on the prior distribution of the regression parameters. Subsequently a posterior distribution of the regression parameters was then derived in order to generate the forecast of September sea ice extent. https://www.arcus.org/files/sio/33269/cpom.pdf Executive summary" of your Outlook contribution (using 300 words or less) describe how and why your contribution was formulated. To the extent possible, use non-technical language. We predict the September ice extent 2022 to be 4.3 (3.8-4.8) million km2. This is just above the trend line. In spite of the large sea ice extent in May 2022, sea ice thickness and melt pond cover are quite normal with respect to the last decade. Brief explanation of Outlook method (using 300 words or less). This is a statistical prediction based on the correlation between the ice area covered by melt- ponds in May and ice extent in September. The melt pond area is derived from a simulation with the sea ice model CICE in which we incorporated a physically based melt-pond model1. See our publication in Nature Climate Change http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n5/full/nclimate2203.html for details2. 2021……4.92 2020……3.92 2019……4.32 2018…...4.71 2017……4.87 2016……4.72 2015…..4.63 2014…..5.28 2013…..5.35 2012…..3.60 2011……4.61 2010…..4.90 2009….5.36 2008….4.67 2007…..4.28

Below to near average June temperatures away from the urban corridor in NE NJ. Some of the strongest blocking of the year waiting until June. So the strongest heat remained to our west. EWR…+1.6 NYC….-0.7 LGA…..-1.3 HPN…..-0.1 JFK…….0.0 ISP…….-0.1

Japan had some of the most extreme June heat this year in the Northern Hemisphere.

Still seems like a pretty big outlier given the other amounts in the 5 boroughs. Data for January 1, 1983 through December 31, 1983 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 80.56 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 74.15 CT STEVENSON DAM COOP 73.78 CT ROUND POND COOP 73.66 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 73.30 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 72.70 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 72.08 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 71.64 CT DANBURY COOP 71.49 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 71.37 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 70.60 NJ GREENWOOD LAKE COOP 69.58 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 69.57 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 69.50 NY WEST POINT COOP 69.49 CT SAUGATUCK RESERVOIR COOP 69.41 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 69.20 NY PLEASANTVILLE COOP 68.99 NJ CRANFORD COOP 68.91 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 68.90 NJ MAHWAH COOP 68.62 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 68.36 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 68.03 CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 67.62 NJ WOODCLIFF LAKE COOP 67.02 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 66.77 NY WESTBURY COOP 66.37 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 66.31 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 66.18 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 66.06 NJ LODI COOP 66.05 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 65.50 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 65.00 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 60.84

The 1983 precipitation totals still haven’t been corrected for NYC. https://www.nytimes.com/1983/12/31/nyregion/city-s-rain-83-record-is-in-doubt.html The heavy rains that pounded New York City during 1983 may not have broken the annual rainfall record here, after all, the National Weather Service said yesterday. The only thing broken for certain, it said, was the official rain gauge in Central Park. To no one's surprise, the Weather Service announced on Nov. 15 that the year's drenching rains in Manhattan had surpassed a record of 67.04 inches, set in 1972. As of early yesterday, additional rains were said to have brought the year's total to 80.56 inches. But the Weather Service's data acquisition division in Garden City, L.I., suspected something was amiss because the Central Park readings were much higher than official measurements at Kennedy International, Newark International and La Guardia Airports. So the gauge at Belvedere Castle in the park was taken apart. It was found to be leaky. A faulty weld apparently was allowing water to seep in the side and be measured with rain entering the calibrated opening. No one knows how much rain fell in the park in 1983. But the Weather Service said that an official estimate based on nearby readings would be made and that ''it likely will be close to the record, either just above or just below.''