bluewave
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The low of 37° at Newark is just 2° from the record low of 35°. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-08DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/9 35 in 1988 36 in 2001 37 in 2022
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Great job from the statistical Arctic sea ice modeling team. The early June forecast was just a little on the low side but still good for such a long lead time. It corrected higher as the months went on. So another September average extent in the 4s. This has become the new normal since 2007 with 11 out of the last 16 years in this range. 2022….4.87 2021……4.92 2020……3.92 2019……4.32 2018…...4.71 2017……4.87 2016……4.72 2015…..4.63 2014…..5.28 2013…..5.35 2012…..3.60 2011……4.61 2010…..4.90 2009….5.36 2008….4.67 2007…..4.28
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Earliest first 30s of the season at Newark since 2003. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 04-01 (2017) 10-03 (2003) 160 Mean 04-21 10-21 182 2022 04-18 (2022) 36 10-09 (2022) - - 2021 04-22 (2021) 37 11-03 (2021) 39 194 2020 05-10 (2020) 35 10-18 (2020) 39 160 2019 04-29 (2019) 37 11-02 (2019) 36 186 2018 04-21 (2018) 37 10-19 (2018) 35 180 2017 04-01 (2017) 36 11-01 (2017) 39 213 2016 04-15 (2016) 39 10-26 (2016) 37 193 2015 04-25 (2015) 36 10-17 (2015) 39 174 2014 04-21 (2014) 37 10-20 (2014) 39 181 2013 04-21 (2013) 37 10-24 (2013) 39 185 2012 04-28 (2012) 38 10-13 (2012) 34 167 2011 04-22 (2011) 37 10-28 (2011) 36 188 2010 04-28 (2010) 38 10-30 (2010) 38 184 2009 04-17 (2009) 37 10-14 (2009) 38 179 2008 05-01 (2008) 37 10-19 (2008) 39 170 2007 04-21 (2007) 39 10-29 (2007) 39 190 2006 04-10 (2006) 39 10-13 (2006) 39 185 2005 05-03 (2005) 39 10-27 (2005) 38 176 2004 04-06 (2004) 31 10-18 (2004) 39 194 2003 04-18 (2003) 36 10-03 (2003) 39 167
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That North Pacific record warm pool is producing classic October El Niño 500 mb pattern instead of a La Niña. October El Niño composite October La Niña composite
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The Euro the has the next strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA.
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Strong cold front coming up for the weekend with 70s today falling to the 30s and 40s by Sunday morning.
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This was the 5th coldest first 5 days of October at Newark coming in at -9 and 53.5°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 5 Missing Count 1 1974-10-05 51.5 0 2 2003-10-05 52.3 0 3 1945-10-05 52.5 0 4 1935-10-05 53.0 0 5 2022-10-05 53.5 0 - 1938-10-05 53.5 0
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The best we can do is identify which competing warm pools may pushback against the canonical ENSO expectations in the new era of ongoing marine heatwaves. In the old days, it was usually just ENSO and whether the NAO would be positive or negative. Now, a new layer of record SST warmth has added to the complexity with record SSTs in both the tropics and subtropics. So this is why seasonal model forecasts can be low skill when models don’t know which warm pool or pools will dominate.
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Impressive for Newark to get two record low maxes in a row. This is the first two consecutive records since the Memorial Day weekend in 2021. So the typical warm October La Niña pattern is getting overpowered by the North Pacific warm pool and more Nino-like +PNA. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-04DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/3 52 in 2022 52 in 1974 53 in 1939 10/4 51 in 2022 52 in 1965 55 in 1996+ 5/29 52 in 2021 60 in 1950 60 in 1940 5/30 53 in 2021 53 in 1953 59 in 2017
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The first 3 days of October are about 12° cooler than the entire month was last year. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2022 52.5 28 2021 64.4 0 2020 58.1 0 2019 60.4 0 2018 57.4 0 2017 63.8 0 2016 58.9 0 2015 57.2 0 2014 59.3 0 2013 59.6 0 2012 58.8 0 2011 58.1 0 2010 58.3 0 2009 55.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 64.4 0 2 2017 63.8 0 3 2007 63.5 0 4 1971 63.1 0 5 1990 62.4 0 6 1984 62.2 0 7 1949 61.6 0 8 1963 61.2 0 9 1995 61.0 0 - 1947 61.0 0 10 2019 60.4 0 - 1954 60.4 0
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Good to see those 3.00” totals near the South Shore since Sunday. But Central NJ gets another jackpot. Some spots recorded 10.00”+. NJ-OC-105 Barnegat Twp 2.6 ESE Lat: 39.7553762321453 Lon: -74.230699170895 * indicates Multi-Day Accumulation Report Station NJ-OC-105 Date Precip in. 10/01/2022 1.27 10/02/2022 0.73 10/03/2022 5.90 10/04/2022 2.30 Totals : 10.20 in.
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The big question is how long this cooler October +PNA pattern can last? We haven’t had a colder October since the modoki El Niño in 2009. So it will be interesting to see if the North Pacific warm pool can continue the more Nino-like pattern or the milder La Niña eventually returns. Newark October temperature departures 2021…..+6.9 2020….+1.5 2019…..+3.8 2018…..+0.8 2017…..+7.2 2016…+2.3 2015….+0.6 2014….+2.7 2013….+3.0 2012…..+2.2 2011……+1.5 2010……+1.9 2009…..-0.8
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So I guess we’ll also have to toss the record low max tie today at Newark. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-02 Lowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/3 52 in 1974 52 in 2022 53 in 1939
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The good thing about our climate is that we don’t have a well defined dry season like they do out West. So dry patterns usually resolve on their own. We haven’t had a water emergency in NYC since 2002. Meanwhile, the West has been experiencing more than a 1000 year megadrought over the last 10 to 20 years. Having nearly all months average around 4.00” gives us plenty of opportunities for precipitation here.
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The rain shield sliding north today makes the models showing the 2.00”+ additional of rainfall to the South Shore look believable for a change.
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This was the worst warm season drought from June to September at JFK since the 1960s. But it’s only 4 months long instead of years long like back then. That’s why there have been no serious water shortages just dry conditions for gardening interests. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Sep 30 Missing Count 1 1965-09-30 6.64 0 2 2022-09-30 7.05 0 3 1970-09-30 7.76 0 4 1948-09-30 8.44 46 5 1951-09-30 8.57 0 6 1957-09-30 8.72 0 7 1980-09-30 9.67 0 8 1995-09-30 9.74 0 9 2005-09-30 10.03 0 10 1998-09-30 10.12 0
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The HRRR which was correctly south with much of the rain last few days is wetter for Tuesday as the lower dewpoints and confluence relax a bit.
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This feels more like an October El Niño +PDO pattern with the cooler +PNA and heaviest rains in the Midatlantic. The near record warm +NPM must be overriding the La Niña. So this could make for an interesting winter forecast if the La Niña influence stays muted. October El Niño composite
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Tough for the main rains to advance north of I-78 with dewpoints in the 30s for NYC. Central Park CLOUDY 51 37 58 NE13G22
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The North Atlantic was near the warmest on record for the summer into the early fall. So the traditional AMO phases are getting overpowered by the steady warming of the North Atlantic. It’s just one solid block of warmth these days.
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The sea breeze front was to our north this summer so the 100s in NYC were limited interior Brooklyn and Queens. Same goes for the higher number of 90° days. We need westerly flow like in 2010 to get a record number of 90s and 100s for our area. Even without a record number of 90s and 100s, the average summer high finished behind 2010. So plenty of days in the upper 80s to boost the highs. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 85.4 0 2 2022 83.8 0 - 2016 83.8 0 - 2011 83.8 0 3 2015 83.3 0 4 2020 83.2 0 - 1971 83.2 0 5 1991 83.1 0 - 1983 83.1 0 - 1949 83.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 83.4 0 2 1999 83.3 0 3 2022 83.0 0 4 2016 82.9 0 5 1966 82.7 0 6 2020 82.4 0 - 1991 82.4 0 7 2011 82.3 0 8 2019 82.0 0 9 2012 81.6 0 10 2018 81.5 0 - 2005 81.5 0
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NJ came close to the all-time record number of 90° and 100° days this summer. The average summer high temperature in NJ was 2nd warmest on record at 86.5°. The minimums were further down on the list due to the drier conditions and lower dewpoints. Data for January 1, 2022 through October 2, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 54 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 53 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 50 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49 Newark Area ThreadEx 49 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 46 HARRISON COOP 44 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 43 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 43 CANOE BROOK COOP 42 ESTELL MANOR COOP 41 Data for January 1, 2022 through October 2, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 6 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 6 Newark Area ThreadEx 6 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 5 CANOE BROOK COOP 4 HARRISON COOP 4 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 2 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 2 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 1 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 1 201006 - 201008 86.5°F 128 202206 - 202208 86.0°F 127 201606 - 201608 85.7°F 126 199906 - 199908 85.6°F 125 202006 - 202008 85.4°F 12 202006 - 202008 65.1°F 128 201006 - 201008 64.9°F 127 200506 - 200508 64.8°F 126 202106 - 202108 64.5°F 125 201806 - 201808 64.3°F 124 201106 - 201108 64.1°F 123 201606 - 201608 64.1°F 123 201906 - 201908 64.1°F 123 202206 - 202208 64.1°F 123
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High pressure hanging tough today for areas north of l-78. This almost looks like a winter confluence situation.Tough for the moisture to advance further north into all that dry air.
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The sun is out here in SW Suffolk with just some drizzle.
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It looks like October will be starting out with a much cooler pattern than recent years. Last October was the warmest on record and 2019 featured the all-time warmest monthly high. So we have a good chance at avoiding another 60°+ October. La Ninas like this year are typically pretty warm here in October. So maybe this means that we see another winter with competing influences that can push back against the typical Niña pattern at times. Typical warm La Nina warm October since 2000 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 64.4 0 2 2017 63.8 0 3 2007 63.5 0 4 1971 63.1 0 5 1990 62.4 0 6 1984 62.2 0 7 1949 61.6 0 8 1963 61.2 0 9 1995 61.0 0 - 1947 61.0 0 10 2019 60.4 0 - 1954 60.4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 96 0 2 1941 93 0 3 1949 92 0 4 1959 91 0 5 1939 90 0 - 1938 90 0
