bluewave

Newark still the driest summer on record with a few days to go. As we follow the driest conditions along the South Shore JFK is 2nd driest. ISP comes in at 4th driest. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 4.43 6 2 1966 4.46 0 3 1949 5.68 0 4 1957 5.69 0 5 1965 5.83 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1966 3.89 0 2 2022 5.14 5 3 1999 5.56 0 4 1965 5.68 0 5 1993 5.71 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1966 3.67 0 2 2005 3.74 0 3 1988 4.52 0 4 2022 4.75 5 5 1993 4.91 0

High of 93° at Newark away from the sea breeze. This is the 46th day reaching 90° as 2022 moves up to 3rd place. Last year was the only time that a 40+ day season had more inches of snow than 90° days. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Seasonal Snowfall 1 2010 54 47.9 2 1993 49 28.8 3 2022 46 17.9 4 1988 43 22.8 5 2021 41 45.7 - 2002 41 3.6 - 1991 41 21.5 6 2016 40 32.6 - 1983 40 31.0 - 1959 40 17.8

Continuation of the same summer theme here in SW Suffolk. Brief shower with the sun out during the light rain. So the ground is already starting to dry.

These were considered 1000 year events in our old climate. But they may actually be 10 to 100 year events in our warmer climate. So NOAA may be doing an update on the criteria soon.

The 12z EPS is correcting stronger with the WAR/SE Ridge through the Labor Day weekend. So a continuation of our 90°+ pattern on the warmer days. Some hint that a tropical system could make it close to the Bahamas or Gulf after Labor Day. That may be our best chance at something more than the hit or miss convection which has been dominating.

An unusually strong westerly flow pattern cut off the sea breeze circulation. So places even out to Mineola in Western Nassau had over 50 days reaching 90°. It also allowed several locations in NNJ and Long Island top 105°. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 59 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 54 NY MINEOLA COOP 52 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 51 NJ HARRISON COOP 50 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 48 NJ CRANFORD COOP 46 NY BRONX COOP 45 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 42 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 37 CT DANBURY COOP 37 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 35 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 34 NY WEST POINT COOP 33 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 32 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 106 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106

Another unusually strong +PNA summer for a La Niña. This has become a common occurrence in recent years. We used to get stronger -PNA patterns with our summer La Ninas. So maybe some of this +PNA can carryover into the fall and winter. We saw the out of place strong +PNA during January last winter with the La Niña. Same thing happened for the 20-21 La Niña winter when the +PNA went against expectations. So these competing marine heatwaves must be shifting the traditional La Niña PNA response around. Another +PNA summer like recent years 2022 Recent La Niña summers Older La Niña summers used to be -PNA

Several stations in NJ are over 40 days of 90° so far which is a top 2 to 4 highest. NY sites are approaching 30 days at LGA and POU. So another season with a strong onshore flow keeping the highest temperatures west of the Hudson closer to NYC Metro. Data for January 1, 2022 through August 24, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Newark Area ThreadEx 44 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 44 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 44 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 42 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 42 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 40 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 2022 44 129 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 52 7 2 2018 48 7 3 2021 43 0 4 2022 42 142 - 2016 42 4 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 24, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 32 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 29 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 29 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 29 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 29 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 29

Record high of 91° tied at Islip. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 445 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ISLIP NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 WAS TIED AT ISLIP NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 1969. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

We have hit 100° in late August and early September when the patterns have supported extreme heat. Numerous mid to upper 90s in recent years. So this year all our top 3 warmest heat was focused from late July into early August. Newark top 3 daily highs from late August into early September 8/25 97 in 1993 96 in 2021 96 in 1948+ 8/26 103 in 1948 97 in 2021 97 in 1993 8/27 100 in 1993 99 in 1948 96 in 2021+ 8/28 102 in 1948 100 in 1993 100 in 1973+ 8/29 100 in 1953 97 in 1948 96 in 2018+ 8/30 100 in 1953 98 in 1973 96 in 1991 8/31 102 in 1953 98 in 2010 97 in 1973 9/1 98 in 2010 96 in 1953 95 in 1980+ 9/2 105 in 1953 98 in 1980 97 in 1944 9/3 100 in 1993 95 in 2018 95 in 2015 9/4 95 in 2018 95 in 1973 95 in 1964 9/5 94 in 1985 94 in 1961 92 in 1973 9/6 98 in 2018 97 in 1983 95 in 2014 9/7 95 in 2015 93 in 2010 92 in 1945 9/8 98 in 2015 94 in 1939 93 in 2010+

Yeah, the Northern Hemisphere land areas are steadily warming during the summers. The Western sections of North America and the Northeast US are among the fastest warming parts of our continent. The rate of warming is even higher in Europe.

The amount of shear and lack of development in the Atlantic so far is more like the super El Niño in 82-83 than a La Niña. It will be interesting to see how much of an increase in activity there is as we approach the peak of the season in September. It may take tropical activity here to finally begin reducing the drought conditions.

Newark is still pretty close to the top for the driest summer on record at just under 5 inches. Several spots out across the Long Island South Shore are also this dry. So this most recent rainfall event continued the theme of only widely scattered heavier totals. It will probably take a tropical system in the fall to get widespread soaking rains. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 4.43 9 2 1966 4.46 0 3 1949 5.68 0 4 1957 5.69 0 5 1965 5.83 0 6 1963 6.18 0 7 1993 6.20 0 8 1953 6.47 0 9 2010 6.74 0 10 1999 6.93 0 MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 4.85 MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 5.35 WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.53 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 3.80 SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 3.85 PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 3.90 ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.94 BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.02 SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.07 COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 4.18 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 4.28 ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 4.29 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 4.41 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 4.54 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 4.57 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 4.60

Many recent Septembers have been averaging over 70° making it the 4th month of summer. So fall doesn’t really get started until October now. Then we have been having numerous 40°+ Decembers making it more like the 3rd month of fall.

80s with sun now across the area. So another day with high temperatures beating guidance. Newark is at the 2nd lowest number of summer days under 80° so far. This could make it 3 consecutive years with a top 5 lowest number of days under 80°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature < 80 Missing Count 1 1994 6 0 2 2022 8 10 3 2021 11 0 - 2016 11 0 - 2011 11 0 - 1993 11 0 4 2020 12 0 - 2008 12 0 - 1966 12 0 5 2015 14 0 - 2010 14 0 - 1995 14 0 - 1991 14 0

High temperatures approaching 80° now on the South Shore with breaks of sun.

The unusually strong -IOD could be playing a role also.

The drought is unusually widespread across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere land and oceans this summer.

Yeah, it won’t take much for the 90° heat to return in a few days with how dry it has been.

It will take a tropical system to bring some drought relief area wide with how large the current rainfall deficit is.

Warmer than average temperatures on the EPS through the Labor Day weekend.

Still a top 3 warmest summer from SE PA into New England with 10 days to go. Several stations have had 3 consecutive top 5 warmest summers since 2020. So a continuation of our much warmer summers pattern since 2010. Time Series Summary for LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 76.3 0 2 2021 76.2 0 3 2022 75.8 11 4 2011 75.7 0 5 2018 75.4 0 - 2005 75.4 2 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 79.6 0 2 2022 79.2 11 3 2016 78.8 0 4 1995 78.5 0 5 2020 78.3 0 - 1994 78.3 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 76.3 0 2 2022 76.1 13 - 1900 76.1 0 3 2005 75.9 0 4 1898 75.8 0 5 2020 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.7 12 2 2020 76.5 4 3 1999 76.3 7 4 2010 76.1 2 5 2021 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 79.2 11 - 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2021 78.3 0 5 2011 78.0 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 74.7 0 2 2020 74.6 0 3 2022 74.5 11 - 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 75.4 11 2 2020 74.9 2 3 2010 74.3 0 4 2021 74.2 0 5 2019 74.0 0 Time Series Summary for NANTUCKET MEMORIAL AP, MA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 71.0 11 - 2021 71.0 2 2 1978 69.0 0 3 2020 68.8 0 4 2015 68.7 0 - 2010 68.7 0 - 1949 68.7 0 5 2012 68.3 1 - 1975 68.3 0

The convection riding north of l-80 and the LIE has been really consistent this summer.

The hurricane drought in the Atlantic may continue for another week.

If Newark can pull off .75, then it will be the first time since June 9th. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Date, Precipitation 2022-06-01, 0.54 2022-06-02, 0.15 2022-06-03, T 2022-06-04, 0.00 2022-06-05, 0.00 2022-06-06, 0.00 2022-06-07, 0.05 2022-06-08, 0.02 2022-06-09, 0.78 2022-06-10, 0.00 2022-06-11, T 2022-06-12, 0.06 2022-06-13, 0.00 2022-06-14, T 2022-06-15, 0.00 2022-06-16, 0.39 2022-06-17, 0.00 2022-06-18, 0.00 2022-06-19, 0.00 2022-06-20, 0.00 2022-06-21, 0.05 2022-06-22, 0.07 2022-06-23, T 2022-06-24, 0.00 2022-06-25, 0.00 2022-06-26, 0.00 2022-06-27, 0.29 2022-06-28, 0.00 2022-06-29, 0.00 2022-06-30, 0.00 2022-07-01, T 2022-07-02, 0.00 2022-07-03, 0.00 2022-07-04, 0.00 2022-07-05, 0.04 2022-07-06, 0.00 2022-07-07, 0.00 2022-07-08, 0.12 2022-07-09, 0.00 2022-07-10, 0.00 2022-07-11, 0.00 2022-07-12, 0.00 2022-07-13, 0.00 2022-07-14, 0.00 2022-07-15, 0.00 2022-07-16, 0.09 2022-07-17, 0.06 2022-07-18, 0.07 2022-07-19, 0.00 2022-07-20, 0.00 2022-07-21, 0.01 2022-07-22, 0.00 2022-07-23, 0.00 2022-07-24, 0.00 2022-07-25, 0.03 2022-07-26, 0.00 2022-07-27, 0.00 2022-07-28, 0.12 2022-07-29, 0.01 2022-07-30, T 2022-07-31, T 2022-08-01, 0.43 2022-08-02, 0.00 2022-08-03, 0.00 2022-08-04, T 2022-08-05, T 2022-08-06, 0.00 2022-08-07, 0.04 2022-08-08, 0.00 2022-08-09, T 2022-08-10, 0.00 2022-08-11, 0.15 2022-08-12, 0.00 2022-08-13, 0.00 2022-08-14, 0.00 2022-08-15, 0.00 2022-08-16, 0.00 2022-08-17, 0.11 2022-08-18, 0.00