bluewave

No doubt. Experts that study the MJO interactions for their whole careers acknowledge all the various moving parts involved. Sometimes we get great results and other times we don’t. I certainly hope we can get a MJO 8 to shift our pattern to something better. But at the same time, I realize that there are other factors which have been driving the record Pacific Jet pattern. So I will keep expectations low and hope we can see something better by the end of December and start of January.

You know the WAA is impressive in December when Newark is only 2° under the record high so far with overcast conditions. 11 Dec 12:51 pm 63

Sometimes the models rush things on the RMM charts. The MJO on the VP charts is much slower working across the Pacific. Plus we often see a lag in the 500 mb pattern response.

The NAO is more east based up until near Christmas. So this allows the -PNA to pump the SE Ridge. We hope the GEFS is correct about it pressing more SW after Christmas. That’s what we need to flatten the SE Ridge. But the EPS and GEPS don’t show this pattern near the end of their runs yet like the GEFS does. They are much weaker with the -NAO. Models diverge for after Christmas

All the ensembles continue the strong -PNA pattern until close to Christmas. So this keeps pumping the SE Ridge. Maybe some improvement after Christmas.

All-time December record warmth in the source region for the forecast record highs around the region today.

You know record warmth is in the way across the area today when we get fog this dense in December ahead of the warm front. Farmingdale FOG 48 47 96 E3 29.94F VSB 1/4 MacArthur/ISP FOG 47 47 100 SE3 29.94F VSB 1/4

We would need any potential MJO 8 near the end of December to be accompanied by a SSW for any possible improvements to last. There have plenty of hostile Pacific patterns in recent years. But this one has raised the bar on extremes of the +EPO, -PNA, and Pacific Jet.

All-time December highest temperatures in the source region for the record warmth headed for our area .

I try to stay away from that since it reminds me of the poster from out of town that used to drop in here and weenie all the posts.

Looks like the LLJ really maxes out over Long Island Saturday evening. There will probably be 50 mph + gusts from the tight gradient alone. So we’ll have to watch for convection in the evening that could mix down winds in excess of 60 mph.

I don’t understand what you mean by running around like chicken little. Putting our temperatures in perspective is very important otherwise we just normalize everything away in a few years. That was what the study that I posted earlier discussed. New baselines are deceptive since a +2 to +3 in December today is getting near the top ten warmest. So it could lead some to say that such a small warm departure really isn’t out of the ordinary.

By that logic, the first week of December in 1976 wasn’t really the 2nd coldest on record at Newark. There was only one record cold day out of 7 when the low dropped to 9°. None of the other days had lows in the single digits. So you can see where your line of reasoning leads to.

Your post is a great example of how quickly we normalize the higher temperatures in a warming climate. With the new much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals, all it takes is a +2 to +3 for top 10 monthly warmth in December. So just looking at departures gives the illusion that it really isn’t that warm. https://www.pnas.org/content/116/11/4905

We just had the 10th warmest first week of December from Newark to Islip. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 7 Missing Count 1 1998-12-07 58.4 0 2 1982-12-07 56.8 0 3 2001-12-07 55.5 0 4 1951-12-07 50.6 0 5 1994-12-07 50.1 0 6 1932-12-07 49.1 0 7 2011-12-07 47.6 0 8 2015-12-07 46.8 0 9 1953-12-07 46.4 0 10 2021-12-07 46.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 7 Missing Count 1 1998-12-07 55.4 0 2 1982-12-07 52.7 0 3 2001-12-07 51.2 0 4 1994-12-07 46.4 0 5 2011-12-07 45.8 0 6 2015-12-07 45.1 0 7 1972-12-07 44.6 0 8 2013-12-07 44.4 0 9 2017-12-07 43.7 0 10 2021-12-07 43.6 0 - 1999-12-07 43.6 0 - 1993-12-07 43.6 0

Just select the station and time of year. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=JFK&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The 12z EPS keeps the -PNA trough near the West Coast through Dec 24th.This pumps up the SE Ridge.The -EPO ridge is centered too far west near the Aleutians and the -NAO is too far east based near Europe. 12z EPS for 12z Dec 24th

The 850 mb temperatures would support 70° on Saturday in NJ if we can get enough sun.

I don’t think that - EPO or a -NAO will matter for us as long as the the big -PNA trough remains near the West Coast. It keeps pumping the SE Ridge. Maybe the weeklies update later will have some more information. But you can see the latest GEFS is stubbornly holding onto that -PNA trough.

That was related to the tail end of the November phase 5. We are currently getting an interference pattern with the MJO phase 6. So this -PNA is out of place for a La Niña phase 6 composite. That’s why we need to be cautious with any expectations about how a phase 7 may look in late December. Snowman linked to a tweet mentioning the +AAM. That along with the WPAC wave breaks is probably why none of the MJO composites are and exact match right now. https://www.frenchscotpilotweather.com/mjo

While the warmth in the East and big -PNA is typical for a neutral ENSO phase 6, a La Niña is supposed to be colder here with a +PNA. So that is telling us that the MJO is not having the intended effect for a La Niña. May be some type of interference pattern which has been noted recently. Could be related to the recent wave breaks in the WPAC and AAM spike. So we will have to be cautious solely relying on the MJO composites going forward until we get more clarity.

It will be a warm up for us compared to how warm it has been to our west this month. The mid portion of December will be higher for us than the +3 to +4 of the first week . So some impressive departures by the solstice.

If you look at the daily snowfall tallies for NYC, EWR, and LGA in December and January 97-98, you will see the common error we often see at Central Park. There were multiple dates when NYC only showed a T but LGA and EWR were 0.2 to 0.5. In recent years we continue to see the same pattern in light events that melt after the snow ends. They wait too long to take the measurements and 0.1 to 0.5s go in as a trace.

The only DJF winter season to go under 1” at NYC was 1997-1998. But my guess is that it was another quality control issue for the Park since LGA and EWR had more. So they probably waited too after the snow ended to measure the snow and some of it melted. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.7 0 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 2019-2020 4.8 0 10 1989-1990 5.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1972-1973 1.3 0 2 1991-1992 2.5 0 3 2011-2012 3.6 0 - 2001-2002 3.6 0 - 1997-1998 3.6 0 4 1930-1931 4.1 62 5 1988-1989 4.8 0 6 1931-1932 5.3 0 7 1937-1938 5.6 0 - 1936-1937 5.6 0 8 2018-2019 5.7 0 - 1989-1990 5.7 0 9 2019-2020 6.9 0 10 1998-1999 7.3 0 - 1941-1942 7.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1972-1973 1.9 0 2 1997-1998 2.3 0 3 1941-1942 3.1 0 4 2001-2002 3.3 0 5 2011-2012 3.4 0 6 2018-2019 3.6 0 7 1991-1992 4.1 0 8 2019-2020 4.6 0 9 1955-1956 5.9 0 10 1958-1959 6.0 0

We need to get rid of that -PNA trough near the West Coast to see improvements after Christmas.