bluewave

It will take a tropical system to bring some drought relief area wide with how large the current rainfall deficit is.

Warmer than average temperatures on the EPS through the Labor Day weekend.

Still a top 3 warmest summer from SE PA into New England with 10 days to go. Several stations have had 3 consecutive top 5 warmest summers since 2020. So a continuation of our much warmer summers pattern since 2010. Time Series Summary for LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 76.3 0 2 2021 76.2 0 3 2022 75.8 11 4 2011 75.7 0 5 2018 75.4 0 - 2005 75.4 2 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 79.6 0 2 2022 79.2 11 3 2016 78.8 0 4 1995 78.5 0 5 2020 78.3 0 - 1994 78.3 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 76.3 0 2 2022 76.1 13 - 1900 76.1 0 3 2005 75.9 0 4 1898 75.8 0 5 2020 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.7 12 2 2020 76.5 4 3 1999 76.3 7 4 2010 76.1 2 5 2021 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 79.2 11 - 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2021 78.3 0 5 2011 78.0 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 74.7 0 2 2020 74.6 0 3 2022 74.5 11 - 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 75.4 11 2 2020 74.9 2 3 2010 74.3 0 4 2021 74.2 0 5 2019 74.0 0 Time Series Summary for NANTUCKET MEMORIAL AP, MA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 71.0 11 - 2021 71.0 2 2 1978 69.0 0 3 2020 68.8 0 4 2015 68.7 0 - 2010 68.7 0 - 1949 68.7 0 5 2012 68.3 1 - 1975 68.3 0

The convection riding north of l-80 and the LIE has been really consistent this summer.

The hurricane drought in the Atlantic may continue for another week.

If Newark can pull off .75, then it will be the first time since June 9th. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Date, Precipitation 2022-06-01, 0.54 2022-06-02, 0.15 2022-06-03, T 2022-06-04, 0.00 2022-06-05, 0.00 2022-06-06, 0.00 2022-06-07, 0.05 2022-06-08, 0.02 2022-06-09, 0.78 2022-06-10, 0.00 2022-06-11, T 2022-06-12, 0.06 2022-06-13, 0.00 2022-06-14, T 2022-06-15, 0.00 2022-06-16, 0.39 2022-06-17, 0.00 2022-06-18, 0.00 2022-06-19, 0.00 2022-06-20, 0.00 2022-06-21, 0.05 2022-06-22, 0.07 2022-06-23, T 2022-06-24, 0.00 2022-06-25, 0.00 2022-06-26, 0.00 2022-06-27, 0.29 2022-06-28, 0.00 2022-06-29, 0.00 2022-06-30, 0.00 2022-07-01, T 2022-07-02, 0.00 2022-07-03, 0.00 2022-07-04, 0.00 2022-07-05, 0.04 2022-07-06, 0.00 2022-07-07, 0.00 2022-07-08, 0.12 2022-07-09, 0.00 2022-07-10, 0.00 2022-07-11, 0.00 2022-07-12, 0.00 2022-07-13, 0.00 2022-07-14, 0.00 2022-07-15, 0.00 2022-07-16, 0.09 2022-07-17, 0.06 2022-07-18, 0.07 2022-07-19, 0.00 2022-07-20, 0.00 2022-07-21, 0.01 2022-07-22, 0.00 2022-07-23, 0.00 2022-07-24, 0.00 2022-07-25, 0.03 2022-07-26, 0.00 2022-07-27, 0.00 2022-07-28, 0.12 2022-07-29, 0.01 2022-07-30, T 2022-07-31, T 2022-08-01, 0.43 2022-08-02, 0.00 2022-08-03, 0.00 2022-08-04, T 2022-08-05, T 2022-08-06, 0.00 2022-08-07, 0.04 2022-08-08, 0.00 2022-08-09, T 2022-08-10, 0.00 2022-08-11, 0.15 2022-08-12, 0.00 2022-08-13, 0.00 2022-08-14, 0.00 2022-08-15, 0.00 2022-08-16, 0.00 2022-08-17, 0.11 2022-08-18, 0.00

The actual number of 90° days in Central Park is probably closer to 30 away from the deep shade trees around the castle. NYC used to almost always have 30 days of 90° when Newark reached 40 days. This was when the equipment was out in the open instead of under the trees. The years before the tree growth took off after 2002 featured NYC running much closer to Newark with just 10 or fewer 90° days. This number has increased to 18-24 fewer days since 2016. I am a bit surprised the big media outlets in NYC haven’t taken notice of this growing differential in their weather reports. They would realize how inaccurate the NYC high temperatures have become. Years before tree growth bolded Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NYC 90° Days 1 2010 54 37….-17 2 1993 49 39…-10 3 1988 43 32….-11 4 2022 42 20….-22 5 2021 41 17….-24 - 2002 41 32….-9 - 1991 41 39….-2 8 2016 40 22….-18 - 1983 40 36…..-4 - 1959 40 27……-13

Highs near 95° today at the usual NJ warm spots.

We may get just enough rain on Monday for Newark to fall into 2nd place on the driest summer list. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 3.68 13 2 1966 4.46 0 3 1949 5.68 0 4 1957 5.69 0 5 1965 5.83 0 6 1963 6.18 0 7 1993 6.20 0 8 1953 6.47 0 9 2010 6.74 0 10 1999 6.93 0

The tropics finally become more active on the extended EPS from late August into early September. But the storms look to exit Africa pretty far north away from the drier air to the south. Any systems would need a strong enough ridge to the north to avoid an early recurve. There is also the potential for closer in development north of 20N. A tropical system is probably what it would take to begin reducing the drought. Scattered frontal convection can only do so much. Unless it’s a more organized system like mid-August 2011.

Newark moves into 4th place on the 90° day list. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2022 42 135 5 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 6 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0

I guess it’s tough to know how the record injection of water vapor into the stratosphere influences blocking without a model study. But the seasonal models are all going for a south based block next winter. The caveat is that the long range blocking forecasts can be low skill. Maybe they are keying in on that record warm pool across the North Atlantic and putting the ridge there.

We’ll need the 70s dewpoints and tropical PWATS to enhance the rainfall potential on Monday.

This year will rank high on the top 10 list for 90° days in NJ. Several stations from CNJ to NNJ already surpassed 40 days. It’s the seasonal average for BWI in Maryland. Data for January 1, 2022 through August 19, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 41 Newark Area ThreadEx 41 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 40 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 39 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 37

It has been the default pattern since the super El Niño in 15-16. But it shifted this summer. The drought and heat ridge over the Plains this summer was different from the typical WAR pattern. More 100° heat and less rain. The Atlantic ridge shifted over closer to England giving them the all-time record heat. Now the return of the WAR may allow for better rainfall chances. With the La Niña, it raises questions for the winter forecast. A big ridge sitting east of New England will continue the warmer winter pattern that has been in place since 15-16. But the snowfall will come down to how much blocking we get. We got both in 20-21 as blocking was more south based. Plains ridge dominated during the summer Ridge east of New England returns and possibly better rainfall potential

EPS has a warmer than average pattern into early September. Matches up with the near record NW Atlantic SSTs. So this could be a preview of the fall pattern like we have seen in recent years.

Philadelphia international airport is south of the more urbanized parts of Philly and it can get a cooler breeze since it’s right in one of the wider stretches of the Delaware River. Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 40 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 40 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 39 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 37 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 36 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 34

Yeah, many lawns around here look like the one on the right.

Maybe we can get just enough rain the next few weeks to avoid a drought upgrade to D3. Parts of the area are currently the driest since 2016. The region hasn’t seen a D3 level of drought since 2002.

Temperatures back to near 90° the next few days as one of our warmest summers on record continues. Many of local stations are still in the top 3 warmest with a few weeks to go. So it just goes to show how warm our summers have become since 2010 with numerous top 10s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 79.3 14 2 1993 79.2 0 3 2010 78.7 0 4 1994 78.5 0 5 2021 78.3 0 6 2011 78.0 0 7 2005 77.8 0 8 1988 77.7 0 9 2020 77.6 0 - 2016 77.6 0 - 1973 77.6 0 10 1999 77.1 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1995 75.1 43 2 1999 74.3 7 3 2022 74.2 15 4 1983 74.0 1 5 2010 73.8 2 6 2016 73.7 0 7 2020 73.4 0 8 2005 73.2 2 - 1966 73.2 0 9 1952 73.1 0 10 2018 73.0 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2022 76.0 14 - 2015 76.0 0 4 2011 75.8 0 5 2020 75.7 0 6 1983 75.6 0 7 1984 75.4 0 8 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 9 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0 10 2005 75.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 74.7 0 2 2022 74.6 14 - 2020 74.6 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2021 73.7 0 8 2018 73.5 0 - 2005 73.5 0 9 2013 73.4 0 10 2012 73.3 0 - 1991 73.3 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.4 15 2 2010 76.3 0 3 1900 76.1 0 4 2005 75.9 0 5 1898 75.8 0 6 2020 75.6 0 7 1901 75.5 1 8 2016 75.4 0 - 1999 75.4 0 9 2021 75.1 0 - 1949 75.1 0 10 2011 74.8 0 - 1899 74.8 0

You know it’s not going to happen when the GFS is the only model showing the furthest west capture like with Joaquin in 2015 and other coastal events before a big shift east.

Less development in the MDR and more close in action around the Bahamas and Gulf of Mexico.

We may have a better shot at convection than anything tropical affecting the East Coast in the next few weeks. The GFS has been too strong recently with the tropical waves coming off Africa. It can’t seem to handle the influence if all the dry air over the MDR. This is one of the slowest starts to the hurricane season due to all the sinking air out there. So we may have to wait until September for the subtropics to compensate for the lack of deep tropical development.

There are some hints at a gradual pattern change to more rainfall opportunities in the coming weeks. The drought ridge sitting in the Plains all summer is forecast to shift. So we get into more of a WAR pattern heading into September. So looking like our classic early September endless summer pattern with plenty of 80s and 90s and convection chances.

We are probably headed for a drought monitor upgrade with the 90s making a return tomorrow into Friday for the usual warm spots.