bluewave
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The GFS probably is the most prone to missing the SE Ridge beyond 5 days so we get the strong cold and snowy bias. New run Old run
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There were only 2 events during a March La Niña -PNA with NYC going 6”+ since 1999. 03-22-18…..8.4” 03-02-09….8.3” Both of them were west based -PNA events with a ridge in the Rockies.
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Yes. The snowiest first week of the month was a more standard block. Even though we had a strong -PNA, the trough stayed over the Mid-Atlantic with the record snows. The more south based block in December favored areas west of NYC since the lows were too tucked in. I am thinking the early winter +PNA allowed the vortex near our area which helped it remain in place during the -PNA.
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2010 had a strong Aleutians ridge and even stronger more defined -PNA vortex. But we were able to get a 50/50 low to park over the Northeast. This time the 50/50 low got displaced too far southeast even with the much weaker -PNA this December.
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The block was too far south to create a big snowstorm for us. It’s the first time that a -2 or lower -AO linked up with the Southeast Ridge. The previous 6 -2 or lower AO Decembers had no hint of a SE Ridge.
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The La Niña background state and record WPAC warm pool drives the Aleutians ridge with leads to a -PNA SE Ridge. The record NW Atlantic SSTs drive the stronger SE Ridge or WAR. So both areas of record SSTs enhance the ridge near us. A La Niña with a colder pool of water to our east would have a weaker ridge.
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New monthly high of 71° for February at Islip. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 1159 AM EST THU FEB 16 2023 ...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT... A DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 71 WAS SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT IN NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 SET IN 2018 AND BREAKS THE MONTHLY RECORD OF 68 SET IN 2022. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).
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Yeah, that was a great winter month. Newark did very well with snowfall since the storm tracks were so tucked in. South based blocking to the east of New England forced the storm track further west. If December was a little cooler and we had a colder Christmas storm track, then Newark could have had a colder than average winter with over 50”. Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 1.3 3.3 4.3 7.6 2.7 T 18.6 2022-2023 0.0 T 0.1 T 0.3 M M 0.4 2021-2022 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.6 2.3 0.8 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 T 0.0 11.9 3.2 30.6 T 0.0 45.7 2019-2020 0.0 T 4.2 2.7 T T T 6.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 0.9 4.8 9.9 0.0 22.0
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Snowy is always possible provided the Pacific cooperates and lines up with a -NAO -AO. But we are yet to have a colder winter after 8 seasons. Not even sure what it would take to get a colder winter. The snowy 20-21 had a favorable Atlantic and Pacific but above average temperatures.
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Tough to say since the baseline on the warming is so much higher now than it was back in 02-03. Plus the last El Niño in 18-19 wasn’t able to couple. It was just like getting a La Niña since the WPAC warm pool was so strong.
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It started a better winter period through 05-06.
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Yeah, it seems to have worked out that way.
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The 97-98 super El Niño began the mild stretch of winters and the snow drought which lasted until 01-02.
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First one for Islip in February. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 68 0 - 1976 68 0 2 1991 67 0 3 2017 65 0 4 2018 64 0 - 2016 64 0 5 2012 63 0 - 2002 63 0 - 1997 63 0 - 1985 63 0
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Not sure since White Plains radiates better than JFK and they were 2nd warmest for minimums this winter.
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For some reason, the low temperature rankings have been cooler at JFK relative to places like White Plains. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 34.0 0 2 2001-2002 33.6 0 3 2016-2017 33.2 0 4 1997-1998 33.0 0 5 2011-2012 32.7 0 - 1982-1983 32.7 0 6 2022-2023 32.6 13 7 1974-1975 32.3 0 8 1952-1953 32.2 0 9 2019-2020 32.1 0 10 1972-1973 31.6 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1997-1998 30.0 20 2 2022-2023 29.5 13 3 2015-2016 29.3 0 - 2001-2002 29.3 0 4 2011-2012 29.1 1 5 2016-2017 29.0 1 6 2019-2020 28.2 2 7 1952-1953 27.7 0 8 1998-1999 27.5 23 9 1996-1997 27.3 24 10 2012-2013 27.0 0
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JFK is further back in 5th place. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 40.9 0 2 2001-2002 40.6 0 3 2011-2012 40.0 0 4 2016-2017 39.5 0 5 2022-2023 39.3 13 6 1997-1998 39.1 0 7 2019-2020 38.7 0 8 1982-1983 38.6 0 9 1990-1991 38.4 0 10 1974-1975 37.9 0
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Continues to look like a winter climate shift to much warmer occurred with the record +13.3 December 2015. A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Feb 23...+5.7 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+5.0 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.9 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9
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We should make a run on 1st place next few days then it will come down to the last week of the month. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2022-2023 40.9 13 4 2011-2012 40.5 0 5 1931-1932 40.2 0 6 1997-1998 39.6 0 7 2016-2017 39.3 0 8 2019-2020 39.2 0 9 1990-1991 39.1 0 10 1998-1999 38.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.1 0 2 2022-2023 41.0 13 3 2015-2016 40.1 0 4 2011-2012 40.0 0 5 1997-1998 39.4 0 6 2016-2017 38.9 0 7 1931-1932 38.8 0 8 2019-2020 38.7 0 9 1990-1991 38.1 0 10 1982-1983 37.9 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 37.2 0 - 2001-2002 37.2 0 2 2022-2023 37.1 13 - 2011-2012 37.1 1 3 1997-1998 36.6 25 4 2016-2017 36.1 1 5 2019-2020 35.7 3 6 1998-1999 35.1 25 - 1990-1991 35.1 8 7 1996-1997 34.8 32 8 1952-1953 34.4 0 9 2012-2013 33.8 0 10 2006-2007 33.7 0 - 1982-1983 33.7 3 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 39.2 0 2 2001-2002 38.7 0 3 2022-2023 38.6 13 4 1997-1998 38.5 0 5 2011-2012 38.3 0 6 2019-2020 37.4 0 7 1994-1995 36.9 0 8 2016-2017 36.8 0 9 1998-1999 36.5 0 10 1990-1991 36.2 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1931-1932 39.5 0 2 2001-2002 38.9 0 3 2015-2016 38.8 0 4 2022-2023 38.1 14 5 1997-1998 38.0 0 6 2011-2012 37.9 0 7 2016-2017 37.6 0 8 2019-2020 37.5 0 9 1948-1949 37.4 0 10 1936-1937 37.2 0
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70° or warmer is becoming much more common in February since 2011 at places like Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 80 0 2 1949 76 0 3 2017 74 0 - 1997 74 0 - 1954 74 0 4 1985 73 0 5 2011 71 0 6 2023 70 13 - 2022 70 0 - 1999 70 0 - 1939 70 0
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-PNA and south based blocking on steroids this winter.
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White Plains is currently in 3rd place for warmest winter with Poughkeepsie in 4th. Danbury is in 1st place for warmest with a period of record starting there in 98-99. Only the 4th winter when Caribou averaged over 20°. BTV is 3rd warmest at nearly 30°. You can see how many top ranking warmest winters there have been since the 15-16 super El Niño. So very close tracking between the interior Northeast and coastal plain. Equivalent benchmarks for warmest across the region NYC….40°+ HPN…..36°+ POU…..34°+ DXR…...34°+ CAR……19°+ BTV……27°+ Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 37.2 0 - 2001-2002 37.2 0 2 2011-2012 37.1 1 3 2022-2023 36.8 15 4 1997-1998 36.6 25 5 2016-2017 36.1 1 6 2019-2020 35.7 3 7 1998-1999 35.1 25 - 1990-1991 35.1 8 8 1996-1997 34.8 32 9 1952-1953 34.4 0 10 2012-2013 33.8 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 36.8 0 2 1931-1932 35.2 7 3 2011-2012 34.8 1 4 2022-2023 34.3 15 - 2001-2002 34.3 0 5 1932-1933 34.1 8 6 1936-1937 33.8 2 7 2019-2020 33.0 0 - 1997-1998 33.0 2 8 1996-1997 32.8 2 9 2016-2017 32.6 0 10 1952-1953 32.2 0 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022-2023 36.3 15 2 2015-2016 35.1 0 3 2001-2002 34.7 0 4 2011-2012 34.6 1 5 2021-2022 33.1 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 21.6 0 2 2009-2010 21.0 0 3 2020-2021 20.8 0 4 2022-2023 20.7 15 5 2001-2002 19.3 0 6 2019-2020 17.9 0 7 1959-1960 17.7 0 8 2011-2012 17.6 0 - 2010-2011 17.6 0 - 1957-1958 17.6 0 9 1982-1983 17.5 0 10 2005-2006 17.3 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 30.2 0 2 2016-2017 29.5 0 3 2022-2023 29.4 15 4 2001-2002 28.8 0 5 2011-2012 27.8 0 6 1932-1933 27.6 0 - 1905-1906 27.6 1 7 1936-1937 26.3 0 8 2019-2020 26.1 0 9 1931-1932 26.0 0 10 1948-1949 25.9 0
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Spring is 3-4 weeks early over much of the Southeast into the lower Mid-Atlantic.
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The only time that it is believable is if it makes it to within 120 hrs. Even during other winters with more snow, models show too much snow beyond 120 hrs. We would have multiple 75-100 seasons if all the post 120hr snowfall verified.
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We need a -NAO to suppress the SE Ridge just enough. But not so much that the trailing waves get suppressed. So a bit of a thread the needle to get NYC past 1” on the season. Too weak a -NAO and the frozen stays up in New England. This would lead to a stronger SE Ridge than forecast days 8-15 as has been the story all season. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html
