bluewave

On track for one of the warmest Januaries on record with more mild weather to go. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 43.8 12 2 1932 43.2 0 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0 11 1880 39.2 0 12 2020 39.1 0

2022 was the warmest on record over the record warm pool just to our east where the perma-ridge keeps popping up.

The trough in the West and the ridge axis near the East Coast has been the common theme. More Niña-like in December with the Aleutians Ridge. Followed by more of a Nino-like Aleutians low in January. But the storm track is still running through the Great Lakes under both regimes.

Yeah, pretty reliable day 11-15 model bias for at least the last 90 days. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

It’s a first for NYC staying above freezing from 12-28 to 1-12. Also the first time that White Plains hasn’t dropped under 25° for the same stretch. Both locations beat their warmest minimum by 4°. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 28 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2023-01-12 33 1 2 1889-01-12 29 0 3 1937-01-12 27 0 4 2007-01-12 26 0 - 1975-01-12 26 0 5 2006-01-12 25 0 - 1992-01-12 25 0 - 1983-01-12 25 0 - 1949-01-12 25 0 - 1932-01-12 25 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 28 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2023-01-12 26 1 2 2021-01-12 22 0 - 2007-01-12 22 0 3 2006-01-12 21 0 - 2003-01-12 21 0 4 2020-01-12 20 0 - 1987-01-12 20 1

Whatever you want to call it…SE Ridge, WAR, Bermuda High. Notice the 50/50 low got replaced by a giant ridge. We have seen the day 6-10 models underestimate this feature frequently. A ridge in that position has been the dominant feature since the 15-16 super El Niño. You can see a ridge this strong off the East Coast is something new since 1950. New run Old run Long term rising 500 mb heights to our east setting new records

The northern stream is dominant in La Ninas. But we are getting more of Nino-like pattern this month with the jet a little further south. But not quite as far south as in a true El Niño. The -2.716 AO was the 2nd lowest on record in December behind 2009 and was a little more negative than 2010. Notice the other La Niña Decembers with such a -AO below -2 had much more snow like 2010,2000, and 1995. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

It’s a similar evolution to the one that was shown last week with a closed low to our west. The only change is the 50/50 in the forecast from last week that was replaced by the SE Ridge or WAR off the coast.This is the same thing that happened with the storm before Christmas. So the record warm Gulf Stream circulation should be taken into account. The entire North Atlantic is near the warmest on record for January. New run Old run

It could be enough. Notice how the day 6-10 forecasts really underestimated the SE Ridge. So the low that was forecast to track across the Southeast is now into the Great Lakes instead. Not much change on the Pacific side between both runs. So it leaves the record SSTs off the coast as the an explanation. We have been seeing this over and over again. The big storm before Christmas originally started out as a coastal low before becoming a cutter. New run Old run

This has to be one of the most impressive PAC Jet extensions that we have ever seen in early January.

We are getting a December 2015 super El Niño 500 mb pattern in early January. Notice how the whole region is +10 to +15 so far. Very unusual to get a pattern like this with a La Niña.

If the ensemble forecasts are close, then NYC has a chance at finishing January near or even above 40°. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 49.5 24 2 1932 43.2 0 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0

NYC is currently at the 9th latest first measurable snowfall as of January 7th. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1972 03-14 (1972) 1.3 01-29 (1973) 1.8 320 1870 04-04 (1870) 2.5 01-21 (1871) 0.4 291 1999 03-15 (1999) 4.0 01-20 (2000) 2.5 310 1965 04-02 (1965) 1.2 01-20 (1966) 0.4 292 2006 04-05 (2006) 0.1 01-19 (2007) 0.3 288 1997 03-14 (1997) 0.2 01-18 (1998) 0.5 309 2015 03-20 (2015) 4.5 01-17 (2016) 0.4 302 1994 03-18 (1994) 2.8 01-11 (1995) 0.2 298 1885 03-29 (1885) 3.0 01-09 (1886) 5.0 285 2001 03-26 (2001) 0.3 01-07 (2002) 0.5 286 1895 03-02 (1895) 1.0 01-07 (1896) 0.5 310

The snowfall rates over 33 days were much more impressive in 10-11 than any other year including 95-96. Newark got 60”+ from late December to late January. So they would have passed 95-96 at those rates by late February or early March. But the pattern reversed too soon. Data for December 26, 2010 through January 28, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NJ WESTFIELD 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 70.1 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 61.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 60.2 CT DANBURY COOP 59.9 CT MILFORD 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 59.1 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 59.0 CT PORTLAND 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 59.0 NJ CRANFORD COOP 57.3 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 57.0 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 56.0 Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 61.5 2011-01-27 0 2 53.6 2011-01-26 0 3 48.7 1978-02-14 0 4 45.7 1978-02-18 0 5 45.5 1961-02-16 0 6 45.2 1978-02-13 0 7 45.0 1978-02-15 0 8 44.9 1978-02-17 0 9 44.8 1961-02-15 0 10 44.6 1961-02-17 0 11 44.2 1978-02-10 0 12 43.9 1978-02-12 0 13 43.8 2011-01-28 0 14 43.5 1948-01-24 0 15 43.1 1978-02-06 0 16 42.7 1996-01-15 0

Yeah, 2002-2003 was the last time all 3 winter months averaged colder than normal in the same season for NYC. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94728&_target2=Next+> Dec…-1.3 Jan….-4.6 Feb….-4.5

Wall to wall snow and cold from November to April has been tough to come by in our warming climate. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 42.7 31.4 30.4 32.3 36.2 48.9 37.0 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 45.6 39.1 32.3 34.0 40.5 49.9 40.2 2021-2022 44.6 41.7 28.8 34.7 42.4 50.0 40.4 2020-2021 49.4 37.2 32.9 32.2 42.4 50.9 40.8 2019-2020 41.8 36.8 37.3 38.2 44.8 47.1 41.0 2018-2019 43.5 38.1 31.1 34.4 38.7 51.9 39.6 2017-2018 45.4 33.8 30.1 39.1 38.0 45.9 38.7 2016-2017 47.7 36.6 36.2 37.8 37.1 53.4 41.5 2015-2016 49.9 48.4 33.3 35.7 45.5 49.5 43.7 2014-2015 43.9 39.6 28.7 21.6 35.2 49.3 36.4 2013-2014 43.4 37.1 27.7 29.7 35.8 48.8 37.1 2012-2013 42.0 40.5 33.1 32.1 38.3 49.7 39.3 2011-2012 49.8 40.5 36.2 38.1 47.3 52.2 44.0

It’s so warm, that the storm track really doesn’t matter. Notice how the Euro has a coastal near the Carolinas in about a week. Very rare to see above freezing temperatures into Canada with this type of storm track in January.

Continuation of the warm pattern for at least the next few weeks on all the ensembles as the Pacific Jet won’t let up.

This is the first time that NYC averaged over 50° for the first 5 days of January. The departure was +17.5 even against the warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. So a record warm start to Janaury. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 5 Missing Count 1 2023-01-05 52.3 0 2 1950-01-05 49.7 0 3 2007-01-05 49.6 0 4 2000-01-05 48.4 0 5 2005-01-05 47.2 0

The pattern is starting to mimic ones seen during the warmest and wettest super El Niños. Notice the record rains into California and the lack of snow in the New England mountains. It will be interesting to see what caused this to happen during a La Niña year.

The most impressive warm temperature record from the last week goes to Burlington, Vermont. The 51° minimum was the 2nd warmest on record for December. It was also a degree warmer than Newark which made the 4th warmest minimum for January. So another case of the warm minimums across the region ranking higher than the maximums. The high of 66° yesterday at Newark ranked 7th warmest for January. Burlington Area, VTPeriod of record: 1884-01-01 through 2023-01-04 Highest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 12/25 45 in 1964 42 in 2014 40 in 1982 12/26 45 in 1895 43 in 1964 36 in 1922 12/27 43 in 1936 41 in 1949 38 in 2019 12/28 39 in 2008 36 in 1982 34 in 1928 12/29 42 in 1984 39 in 1905 38 in 1996 12/30 45 in 2022 35 in 1940 35 in 1927 12/31 51 in 2022 39 in 1965 38 in 1936 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1966 53 0 2 2022 51 0 3 1951 50 0 4 1990 49 0 - 1911 49 0 5 2015 48 0 - 1982 48 0 - 1957 48 0 - 1897 48 0 - 1895 48 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 56 0 2 2007 55 0 3 1995 53 0 - 1946 53 0 - 1932 53 0 4 2023 50 27 - 2000 50 0 - 1975 50 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 74 0 2 2007 72 0 3 2020 70 0 - 2002 70 0 - 1998 70 0 - 1932 70 0 4 1974 69 0 5 2000 68 0 - 1967 68 0 6 2017 67 0 - 2005 67 0 - 1995 67 0 7 2023 66 27 - 2013 66 0 - 2008 66 0 - 1993 66 0 - 1990 66 0 - 1975 66 0 - 1937 66 0 8 2016 65 0 - 1973 65 0 - 1972 65 0

Newark made it to the all-time winter warmest of 80° during an MJO 8-1 passage in February 2018. So that is the warmest on record for those phases of the MJO. There are other factors like the the SPV strength study that was just posted a few minutes ago. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-02-15 60 44 2018-02-16 59 36 2018-02-17 39 25 2018-02-18 46 33 2018-02-19 49 32 2018-02-20 69 46 2018-02-21 80 56 2018-02-22 59 37

Yeah, near record low snow cover over also.

Very fast Pacific flow on 12z Euro and CMC. So the storms on the runs today get suppressed to our south. Hard to get a phase with systems constantly coming ashore out West acting as kicker lows. But maybe we can put something together in later runs. Just wouldn’t count on anything until it comes under 120 hrs with both the Euro and CMC in agreement.

Record high of 65° at Islip.