bluewave
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The canopy is finally starting to thin out with the falling leaves at the NYC ASOS. So they were able to get enough sun to reach the sensor for a record high. It’s the first record high there since the trees were bare in early March. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0213 AM EST TUE MAR 08 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 74 WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 74 SET IN 1946.
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Several spots could see their first freeze of the season behind the storm.
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The last time that that Florida had a hurricane cross from the east in November was the Yankee Hurricane of 1935. This kind of track in November is very rare. So it it will be interesting to see how the trough interaction next weekend works out for our area. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Yankee_hurricane
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Tropical systems near Puerto Rico aren’t supposed to track westward back to Florida in November. What used to be November climo favored northeasterly tracks from that location. But we have a record breaking 1045 mb high this week blocking the typical recurve OTS.
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Now the Euro is coming around to the idea of a tropical system phasing with a disturbance crossing the Great Lakes next weekend. So the possibility of high winds and heavy rain for our area. Probably need several more days to refine the exact track.
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Looks like the 79° at Newark was the 4th warmest for November. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 85 0 2 2003 81 0 - 1974 81 0 3 1993 80 0 - 1982 80 0 - 1948 80 0 4 1994 79 0 - 1990 79 0 2022 79 0
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Record highs from Newark to Islip.
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Newark moves into 5th place for the most November 70° days with a high of 73° today. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2020 7 0 - 1975 7 0 2 1994 6 0 - 1990 6 0 - 1953 6 0 - 1931 6 0 3 2015 5 0 - 2001 5 0 - 1982 5 0 - 1938 5 0 4 2005 4 0 - 1979 4 0 - 1973 4 0 5 2011 3 0 - 1974 3 0 - 1964 3 0 - 1956 3 0 - 1950 3 0 - 1949 3 0 - 1948 3 0 - 1945 3 0 - 1935 3 0 2022 3 27
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Record warmth possible by this weekend. The models have a record breaking 588 dm ridge building over the area. Guidance sometimes shows too much onshore flow for Newark. So if this is the case again, then Newark could approach the 77° and 80° record highs. This warmth may come close to early November 2020 records. 11/5 77 in 1959 76 in 1994. 75 in 1961+ 11/6 80 in 1948 77 in 1959 75 in 2015 11/7 78 in 1938 77 in 2020 71 in 2015+ 11/8 77 in 2020 76 in 1975 75 in 1945 11/9 77 in 2020 75 in 1975 74 in 2021 11/10 76 in 2020 73 in 1999 73 in 1985+ More SW flow than forecast could allow Newark to beat guidance.
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Warmer October in New England and cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. So the dividing line between warmer and cooler is right around NYC. Another big ridge over the record warm pool east of New England. This is the 2nd warmest October in Caribou, Maine so far. ISP….+0.7 FRG…+0.7 HPN….+0.3 JFK…..-0.2 NYC…..-1.3 LGA……-1.4 EWR…..-1.9 Time Series Summary for CARIBOU WFO, ME - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 51.4 0 2 2022 50.1 3 3 2021 49.9 0 4 1947 48.8 0 5 1968 48.4 0 6 1995 47.8 0 7 2007 47.6 0 8 1963 47.5 0 9 1970 47.4 0 10 2014 47.3 0
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Warmer October to the north and east of NYC and cooler south and west. Continuation of this theme for the rest of the month. Ridge set up again over the NW Atlantic record warm pool. This allowed for two record warm low minimums in a row at ISP. ISP….+0.5 FRG…+0.5 HPN….+0.2 JFK….-0.5 NYC….-1.4 LGA…..-1.5 EWR…..-2.1 Islip Area, NYPeriod of record: 1963-09-05 through 2022-10-26 Highest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/25 65 in 2022 59 in 1975 59 in 1971 10/26 60 in 2022 60 in 2010 59 in 2003
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Yes. It brings Farmingdale to -0.1 for October. So much warmer conditions this month at the coast. A reversal from the summer when NJ had the warmer departures. Almanac for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY October 25, 2022 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 78 61 78 in 2022 51 in 2018 Min Temperature 64 45 64 in 2022 32 in 2003 Avg Temperature 71.0 52.8 71.0 in 2022 45.0 in 2018
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Just missed the record high at Islip at 75°. This late month warmth brings the departure up to 0.0. So the record SST warmth east of New England is keeping coastal sections warmer this month. 10/25 76 in 2001 76 in 1963 75 in 2022
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Warmer winters have become the norm since the super El Niño in 15-16. Overall La Niña background state with a strong WAR and SE ridge. Intervals of Atlantic and Pacific blocking were more dominant in the snowier seasons.
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The cooler October transitioning to a warmer November is more of a feature that we see with El Niños. So the record warmth in the North Pacific is creating more of an El Niño type influence. Probably another winter with competing influences rather than a strict ENSO interpretation.
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The warmest departures will go to our north this week and are set maintain the near record warmth up near Caribou, Maine. This was their 3rd warmest first 3 weeks of October for high temperatures. It’s really impressive since the average high there was only a little warmer than Newark. Goes to show how strong that record warm pool is east of New England. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 23 Missing Count 1 1947-10-23 62.4 0 2 2017-10-23 62.2 0 3 2022-10-23 61.7 0 4 2021-10-23 61.2 0 5 2016-10-23 61.1 0
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More onshore flow when the record ridge axis extends east of New England like we are getting again this weekend.
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General warm up as the PNA becomes more negative going forward. Looks like the warm spots may sneak in a few 70° days. But the highest departures should miss to our north. So areas especially further west may be able to hold the cold departures for the month. EWR….-4.3 NYC…..-3.1 HPN……-1.3 JFK…….-2.1 LGA…..-3.0 ISP…….-1.0
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41° here in SW Suffolk with some frost only on the roofs.
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Heading into our next cool down behind the cold front. Back to the 30s tonight for the usual colder spots. Then we warm up near 70° for the warmer spots over the weekend into next week.
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The cold departures get much smaller east of the Hudson this month. NJ has had some of the coldest departures in the area. More cold this week centered west of NYC will enhance this pattern. Then models indicate a warm up later in the month. So we’ll see if the cold departures can hold especially east of NYC with the coming warm up. EWR….-4.6 TTN….-4.2 HPN….-1.0 LGA….-2.7 JFK….-2.1 ISP…..-0.6
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Big pattern change coming up to warmer after this week as the PNA reverses and we get back to more of a La Niña SE Ridge.
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This was the 9th coldest first 2 weeks of October at Newark with more cold to come this week. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 14 Missing Count 1 1935-10-14 52.4 0 2 1945-10-14 53.5 0 3 1987-10-14 53.7 0 4 1965-10-14 54.1 0 5 1988-10-14 54.4 0 - 1981-10-14 54.4 0 6 1996-10-14 54.6 0 7 1964-10-14 54.9 0 - 1934-10-14 54.9 0 8 1977-10-14 55.1 0 9 2022-10-14 55.2 0
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This was the 4th coldest October 1-11 at Newark on record at -7.1 and 54.2°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 11 Missing Count 1 1935-10-11 51.5 0 2 1965-10-11 53.8 0 3 1938-10-11 54.0 0 4 2022-10-11 54.2 0 5 1996-10-11 54.3 0
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Yeah, record Southern Greenland blocking lead to the record heat and melt for September.
