donsutherland1

Unfortunately, Twitter/X is filled with bad weather information (46-day maps, 4+ week forecasts, and frequent hype/extreme maps). At this point, any claims about the development of a big AO- regime in the extended range is nothing more than speculation. Here's the latest forecast for mid-February, noting that teleconnection forecasts toward or beyond two weeks are not skillful. Moreover, during La Niña winters, the March AO outcome is almost a coin toss. However, a positive outcome is somewhat favored following a positive February outcome.

Temperatures again reached 40° or above in much of the Middle Atlantic region. The mild weather will likely continue through Wednesday before another cold front arrives. The front could be accompanied by some snow flurries. Behind the front, it will turn colder, but the coldest anomalies will occur across Upstate New York and New England. The cold won't rival that of last week. Although the cold air mass will originate in northern Russia, that region has been experienccing near record and record warmth. As a result, the air mass will not be exceptionally cold when it reaches eastern North America. The guidance has accelerated the onset of rainfall on Friday. As a result, prospects for a record dry month have decreased. Nevertheless, Poughkeepsie and White Plains could still surpass their January records. Precipitation amounts through January 27th and January Records: Islip: 0.37" (Record: 0.51", 1970) Mount Pocono: 0.51" (Record: 0.61", 1990) New York City-Central Park: 0.45" (Record: 0.58", 1981) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.35" (Record: 0.51", 1981) Newark: 0.34" (Record: 0.45", 1981) Philadelphia: 0.39" (Record: 0.45", 1955) Poughkeepsie: 0.12" (Record: 0.43", 1970) White Plains: 0.18" (Record: 0.44", 1955) Out West, Blythe, CA saw its record 300-day streak without measurable precipitation end today. The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through at least the first week of February. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will be limited. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm could persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through the first week of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +11.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.467 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.6° below normal).

1991-2020.

Thanks. I just wanted to be sure that I wasn't a source of providing confusing information.

The models are getting a better idea rather than any big changes in the pattern.

It will be a close call. It depends on how much precipitation falls before midnight.

The final outcome: It was broadly somewhat warmer than had been expected on the guidance. It was also bone dry.

The Middle Atlantic region saw temperatures rise into the 40s today. New York City had a high of 43°. Philadelphia had a high of 42°. It was even warmer in Washington, DC where the mercury topped out at 51°. Tomorrow will be another mild day, but likely not as mild as today was. The mild weather will likely continue through Wednesday before another cold front arrives. The front could be accompanied by some snow flurries. Behind the front, it will turn colder, but the coldest anomalies will occur across Upstate New York and New England. The cold won't rival that of last week. Although the cold air mass will originate in northern Russia, that region has been experienccing near record and record warmth. As a result, the air mass will not be exceptionally cold when it reaches eastern North America. With little or no precipitation expected through the remainder of January, several cities could approach or set records for their driest January on record. Precipitation amounts through January 26th and January Records: Islip: 0.37" (Record: 0.51", 1970) Mount Pocono: 0.51" (Record: 0.61", 1990) New York City-Central Park: 0.45" (Record: 0.58", 1981) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.35" (Record: 0.51", 1981) Newark: 0.34" (Record: 0.45", 1981) Philadelphia: 0.39" (Record: 0.45", 1955) Poughkeepsie: 0.12" (Record: 0.43", 1970) White Plains: 0.18" (Record: 0.44", 1955) The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through at least the first week of February. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will be limited. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm could persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through the first week of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +4.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.045 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.0° (3.9° below normal).

Just so there's no confusion with my posts regarding 6"+ snowstorms, the low probability of such storms though mid-February does not preclude smaller events.

You are likely seeing the impact of Miller B storms. Those storms typically favor areas where they develop and those to the north.

Even before Central Park's records began in 1869, big March and April snowstorms were not common events for NYC. April 2-3, 1825: About one foot fell in the City April 12, 1841: 8" on the streets of New York City; 1-2 feet around the City March 16-17, 1843: 18" in New York City

Actually, when Philadelphia picks up 4" or more snow, New York City sees 4" or more snow two-thirds of the time.

Technically, we're in the northern Mid-Atlantic. We may wind up somewhat above normal, especially if the NBE is correct.

The week ahead: Much colder in New England than the Mid-Atlantic region; much better prospects for some snowfall in New England.

I didn’t see any while I was there.

It will turn milder tomorrow. The thermometer could reach the upper 30s and perhaps 40°. The milder weather will likely continue through Tuesday before another cold front arrives possibly with some snow flurries or a brief period of light snow. Behind the front, it will turn noticeably colder. However, the cold won't be as sharp as it was earlier this week. In addition, with little or no precipitation expected through the remainder of January, several cities could approach or set records for their driest January on record. Precipitation amounts through January 25th and January Records: Islip: 0.37" (Record: 0.51", 1970) New York City-Central Park: 0.45" (Record: 0.58", 1981) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.35" (Record: 0.51", 1981) Newark: 0.34" (Record: 0.45", 1981) Philadelphia: 0.39" (Record: 0.45", 1955) Poughkeepsie: 0.12" (Record: 0.43", 1970) White Plains: 0.18" (Record: 0.44", 1955) The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through at least the first week of February. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will be limited. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm could persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +9.33 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.186 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.7° (4.2° below normal).

Five photos of the Hudson River from Kingsland Point Park in Sleepy Hollow, NY:

If we can keep getting at least pieces of cold air masses coming eastward after the first half of February, the PNA becomes less important due to the shortening of wave lengths. A number of the biggest storms during the second half of February have occurred with a PNA-. But let's see where we are as we near mid-February.

Photo from New York City:

I agree with you. From my having seen the changeover to snow/sleet on the observations, I expected a greater accumulation at Savannah. I hope that there will be some measure of quality control and, if appropriate, an adjustment. This was a historic storm and it would be a shame for a bad measurement to minimize what happened at Savannah.

A great piece on the New York Giants' historic blunder in letting Saquon Barkely leave. They should have re-signed him. Period. No excuses. The article highlights what happened: Barkley now stands as the utmost outlier in a league that compels teams to take hard stances on positional value to manage an inflexible salary cap. That’s why the Giants allowed him to flee to Philadelphia. They knew he was their most important weapon, but they couldn’t get past preconceived notions about the modern, textbook way to retool a deficient roster. Quite frankly, the Giants need structural changes at the top. As long as they remain constrained by yesterday's thinking, cognitive bias, and lack of imagination, they will sustain the kind of mediocrity that is difficult for Giants fans to bear. The article is here: https://wapo.st/4aEwTez

I don't expect a torch. It will be warmer than it has been but not exceptionally warm. Whether that changes during the second half of the month remains to be seen given the limits of model skill.

NYC got 8.1" from the first and 3.5" from the second.

The Gulf Coast snowstorm raced across the Atlantic, bombed out, and set wind records in Ireland. The cold is rapidly moderating. In the longer-range, the cold will increasingly dump into the West with pieces coming eastward. The cold shots in the East could be more transient in nature, unlike with this month. There is some uncertainty, as the weekly guidance is warmer than the closing days of the EPS and GEFS. I expect all of this guidance to converge in coming days. But the absence of blocking suggests a more transient nature to the cold shots.