donsutherland1

A warm October is concluding with chilly readings. In New York City,Ocrober had a mean temperature of 60.5°. That was 2.6° warmer than normal. Overnight, an offshore storm will bring some showers and periods of light rain to the region. November will begin on a cold note. Areas outside of New York City and Philadelphia will see widespread freezes tomorrow night. The chill will moderate by the weekend, but temperatures could average below normal through the first 10-14 days of November. October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was +7.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.531 today. On October 28 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.083 (RMM). The October 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.326 (RMM).

DCA_NYC_BOS__ ORD_ATL_IAH__ DEN_ PHX_ SEA 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 3.0 2.5 3.6

Much colder air is now pouring into the region. Following the frontal passage, the coldest air of the season will cover the region to end October and begin November. The chill will moderate by next weekend. October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was +6.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.552 today. On October 27 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.120 (RMM). The October 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.239 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.4° (2.5° above normal).

Light rain and drizzle will continue into the night. Across northern and western Maine, an appreciable snowfall is likely. Parts of that region could see 3"-6" of snow with locally higher amounts. Tomorrow will become milder with temperatures reaching the lower 60s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region and approaching or reaching 70° or above from southern New Jersey southward. However, much colder air will pour into the region tomorrow night. Afterward, the coldest air of the season will cover the region to end October and begin November. The chill will moderate by next weekend. October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -3.29 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.943 today. On October 26 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.239 (RMM). The October 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.256 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.4° (2.5° above normal).

One-quarter mile visibility on October 29, 2011:

Under mainly sunny skies, the temperature surged to near record and record levels across the New York City area and adjacent suburbs. At the New York Botanical Garden, the 2,245.5 lb (1,018.5 kg) pumpkin was being carved. The chrysanthemum show was in full swing.

The late-season episode of summer weather will come to an abrupt end tomorrow. Today, readings soared to near record and record highs in much of the East. High temperatures included: Atlantic City: 82° (old record: 81°, 1984) Baltimore: 85° Bangor: 79° (old record: 76°, 1947 and 1989) ***Highest temperature so late in the season*** Boston: 81° (tied record set in 1919) Bridgeport: 75° (old record: 72°, 1964, 1971, and 2010) Charlottesville, VA: 89° (old record: 88°, 1919) ***Highest temperature so late in the season*** Concord: 80° (old record: 78°, 1947) Hartford: 84° (old record: 81°, 1919) ***Highest temperature so late in the season*** Islip: 83° (old record: 75°, 1971) ***Highest temperature so late in the season*** Manchester, NH: 82° (old record: 73°, 1947, 1966, and 2010) ***Highest temperature so late in the season*** New Haven: 79° (old record: 73°, 1977) New York City-Central Park: 80° New York City-JFK Airport: 81° (old record: 76°, 2010) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 82° (old record: 80°, 1984) Newark: 84° (old record: 82°, 1984) Philadelphia: 83° Portland, ME: 80° (old record: 78°, 1947) Providence: 82° (old record: 80°, 1919) Richmond: 86° Washington, DC: 86° White Plains: 81° (old record: 80°, 1964) Wilmington, DE: 83° (tied record set in 1919) Worcester: 78° A weak cold front will bring showers and periods of rain, along with cooler weather tomorrow. Temperatures will rise no higher than the upper 50s and perhaps lower 60s. Monday could be slightly milder, but much colder air will overspread the region late Monday or Monday night. Afterward, the coldest air of the season will cover the region to end October and begin November. October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -0.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.611 today. On October 25 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.256 (RMM). The October 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.121 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2° (2.3° above normal).

Islip has reached 81. That is the highest temperature so late in the season. The previous latest 81 or above occurred on October 19, 2016 (84).

Islip has reached 77. That breaks the daily record of 75 that was set in 1971.

For those who are interested, Joe Bastardi received his very first fact check. AFP fact checked his claim that submarine volcanoes are driving climate change. The fact check can be found here: https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.33YL6RV

Despite a cloudy start, temperatures again reach much above normal levels today. Highs included: Albany: 80° (old record: 79°, 1963) Baltimore: 82° (tied record set in 1963) Binghamton: 77° (old record: 73°, 1991) Boston: 79° Islip: 74° New York City: 74° Newark: 77° Washington, DC: 82° Tomorrow will see temperature peak. Readings will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s into southern and central New England. A weak cold front will bring showers and cooler weather on Sunday. Monday will remain fairly mild and perhaps somewhat warmer than Sunday, but much colder air will overspread the region late Monday or Monday night. Afterward, the coldest air of the season will cover the region to end October and begin November. October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -5.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.425 today. On October 24 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.121 (RMM). The October 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.009 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3° (2.4° above normal).

Thank you, Maureen.

Some sunrise photos. Lots of clouds but warm.

Bright sunshine sent temperatures soaring to near record and record highs across the region. High temperatures included: Albany: 77° Atlantic City: 80° (tied record set in 1963) Baltimore: 83° (old record: 81°, 1978) Boston: 80° Bridgeport: 74° (tied record set in 1963) Hartford: 80° Islip: 76° (old record: 75°, 1971) New Haven: 74° (old record: 70°, 1948, 1963, and 2010) New York City-Central Park: 77° New York City-JFK Airport: 74° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 80° (old record: 76°, 1947 and 1963) Newark: 82° (old record: 79°, 1963 and 1964) Philadelphia: 80° (old record: 78°, 1920) Poughkeepsie: 81° (tied record set in 1963) Providence: 77° Washington, DC: 78° Tomorrow and Saturday will see a continuation of very warm weather. Readings will peak in the upper 70s and even lower 80s across parts of the region into southern New England. A weak cold front will bring showers and somewhat cooler weather on Sunday. Monday will remain fairly mild, but much colder air will overspread the region late Monday or Monday night. Afterward, the coldest air of the season will cover the region to end October and begin November. October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -3.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.191 today. On October 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.009 (RMM). The October 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.879 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3° (2.4° above normal).

There is an effort to try to discount any link beween Otis' rapid intensification and climate change, even as the literature increasingly shows that the warming climate is leading to an increase in rapid intensification cases. Worse, the efforts are deceptive. Look more closely at the map. Notice the dates. The SSTAs are not from the time when Otis approached and made landfall (October 24-25), but from the August 26-September 1, 2023 period. Thus, the argument rests on obsolete information. It is not an evidence-based argument. It is misleading, as it implies that the data is from the relevant timeframe when, in fact, it is not.

Temperatures will remain at above and much above normal levels into the weekend. During the peak of the warmth, the temperature will likely reach into the 70s into southern and central New England. Parts of the Middle Atlantic Region Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia,and Washington, DC could reach 80°. Much colder air will return to close out October. November will commence with the coldest weather so far this season. October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was not available today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.300 today. On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.879 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.563 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2° (2.3° above normal).

Another climate change denial claim aimed at discrediting climate research and its findings is below. It lacks credibility. Apparently, the author of the tweet never bothered to read the paper. The paper's explanation first appears in the second paragraph under the heading "Main." If one read that paragraph, one would understand that the paper made no claim that floating ice shelves are directly raising the sea-level. It observed that their melting is making it easier for upstream glaciers to flow towards the ocean. Those upstream glaciers—part of Antarctica’s ice sheet—is what is raising the sea-level. People can read the paper here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x Science is not a "game" where one reacts reflexively to research without bothering to actually examine the content. Science is a rational and thoughtful undertaking.

An impressive late October warmup is getting underway. Temperatures will surge to above and much above normal levels into the weekend. During the peak of the warmth, the temperature will likely reach into the 70s into southern and central New England. Parts of the Middle Atlantic Region Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia,and Washington, DC could reach 80°. Much cooler air could return to close out October. All said, October is on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was +0.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.051 today. On October 21 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.563 (RMM). The October 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.353 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2° (2.3° above normal).

Tomorrow through Tuesday will be chilly late autumnlike days. Some frost will be possible in areas outside New York City and Newark. However, by the middle of the week, temperatures will surge to above and much above normal levels. During the peak of the warmth, the temperature will likely reach 70° or above as far north as southern New England. Parts of the Middle Atlantic Region including Philadelphia could see the temperature top out in the middle and upper 70s. Baltimore and Washington, DC could reach 80°. Much cooler air could return to close out October. The recent guidance is notably warmer than had previously been the case. As a result, there is now a distinct possibility of a 60° October mean temperature in New York City. All said, October is on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -7.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.005 today. On October 20 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.353 (RMM). The October 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.278 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2° (2.3° above normal).

The tendency toward a strengthening SPV may be starting to show up in the extended range of the AO forecast, which is now showing a pronounced rise.

Tomorrow through Tuesday will be chilly late autumnlike days. Some frost will be possible in areas outside New York City and Newark. However, by the middle of the week, temperatures will surge to above and much above normal levels. During the peak of the warmth, the temperature will likely reach 70° or above as far north as southern New England. Parts of the Middle Atlantic Region including Philadelphia could see the temperature top out in the middle and upper 70s. Baltimore and Washington, DC could reach 80°. Much cooler air could return to close out October. The new guidance is notably warmer than recent guidance. Both the operational GFS and ECMWF are much warmer than their ensembles and the National Blend of Models. As a result, there is now a distinct possibility of a 60° October mean temperature in New York City. All said, October is on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around October 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -22.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.060 today. On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.278 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.252 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.7° (1.8° above normal).

Some fall scenes at the New York Botanical Garden, including a 2,469-lb (1,120 kg) pumpkin grown by Steve Sperry in Rhode Island.

The coolest air so far this season will move into the region tonight as the clouds continue to depart. Tomorrow through Tuesday will be chilly late autumnlike days. Some frost will be possible in areas outside New York City and Newark. However, by the middle of the week, temperatures will surge to above and perhaps much above normal levels. During the peak of the warmth, the temperature could reach 70° or above as far north as southern New England. Much cooler air could return to close out October. Nevertheless, October is on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around October 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -23.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.482 today. On October 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.252 (RMM). The October 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.229 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.1° (1.2° above normal).

Periods of rain are likely overnight. Showers will continue into tomorrow across the region before tapering off from west to east. Afterward, the weekend into early next week will likely see its coolest weather so far this fall. Frost will be possible in areas outside New York City and Newark. Temperatures will surge to above and perhaps much above normal levels by the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around October 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -22.56 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.723 today. On October 17 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.229 (RMM). The October 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.346 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.0° (1.1° above normal).

A strong cold front coupled with an offshore storm will bring periods of rain tomorrow into Saturday. A general 0.50" to 1.00" rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. Afterward, the weekend into early next week will likely see its coolest weather so far this fall. Frost will be possible in areas outside New York City and Newark. The strong cold shot will then be followed by a potentially impressive warmup. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around October 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -15.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.403 today. On October 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.346 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.486 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.7° (0.8° above normal).