donsutherland1

The guidance remains locked on the warm start to April. Even greater warmth is likely later in the first week of April.

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny, blustery and unseasonably cold. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 48° Tomorrow will turn milder but showers will likely arrive. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.9°; 15-Year: 55.1° Newark: 30-Year: 55.8°; 15-Year: 56.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.0°; 15-Year: 58.7°

Latest NBM and MOS forecasts for NYC's low temperature tomorrow morning: Often following the passage of strong cold fronts, the MOS does somewhat better than the NBM.

Earlier today, the temperature fell to -13° in Bismarck. That surpassed the daily record of -7° from 1964 and was also Bismarck's coldest temperature so late in the season. The previous latest -13° temperature occurred on March 26, 1964 and 1996. Records go back to 1875. Record cold covered the Northern Plains. While most of that air will never reach the northeastern U.S., a small piece of the air mass will race eastward and graze the region. Overnight, some showers of rain and possibly wet snow will affect the area as a strong cold front roars through the region. The frontal passage could bring some briefly heavy snow squalls across central and Upstate New York and central and northern New England. In its wake, tomorrow will be blustery and unseasonably cool despite a return to abundant sunshine. The cold will be short-lived. It will rapidly turn milder as the week comes to a close. Saturday will likely start the month off on a much warmer than normal note as showers give way to some sunshine. Another cold front could bring showers and thundershowers to the region late in the day. There is some chance that there could be a squall line with strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms. Highs will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Overall, the first week of April now appears to be in line to average warmer than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America. Some of the guidance now brings the cooler air into the East for the second week of April, but considerable uncertainty exists. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -10.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.029 today. On March 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.041 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.333 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (1.8° above normal normal).

New York City is continuing to move closer to completing its least snowy season on record.

Spring (southern Hemisphere autumn) is a transitional time. ENSO events can be decaying. SSTs are shifting. That makes ocean-atmosphere relationships weaker. A general description can be found here: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we’d-rather-be-spring-break In addition, there has been some promising research that suggests that the use of February-March sea-level pressures improves forecasting skill and reduces the impact of the spring predictability barrier. I don't know whether this research has been operationalized in any of the ENSO models, yet.

The spring prediction barrier has not yet passed. I'll be more concerned if the early summer guidance shows such an outcome. It would be a most unpleasant development if we get a 1997-98 winter to follow our non-winter of 2022-2023.

April 1 forecast trends for NYC:

Things are evolving toward a warmer outcome. Such a development wouldn’t be entirely surprising.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and seasonably cool. Another round of showers perhaps ending with some snowflakes is possible tomorrow night into Thursday. The first day of April will likely start the month off on a much warmer than normal note. Overall, the first week of April could wind up near or somewhat cooler than normal, but a cooler outcome is not assured. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -6.94 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.776 today. On March 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.333 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.441 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.5° (1.7° above normal normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be variably cloudy with near seasonable to somewhat cooler than normal temperatures. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 55° Tomorrow will be fair with similar reading. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.1°; 15-Year: 54.7° Newark: 30-Year: 55.0°; 15-Year: 55.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.2°; 15-Year: 57.9°

Tomorrow will be a cooler day. Showers are possible tonight night into tomorrow. Another round of showers is possible Wednesday into Thursday. The first day of April could start the month off on a much warmer than normal note based on increasing support among the guidance. Overall, the first week of April could wind up near or somewhat cooler than normal, but a cooler outcome is not assured. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +0.14 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.388 today. On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.442 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.677 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (1.8° above normal normal).

They are. Let’s hope the showers hold off.

April 1st forecast high temperature for NYC:

Very well said, Bluewave.

Under brilliant sunshine, temperatures soared into the lower and middle 60s. Tomorrow will be a cooler day. Showers are possible tomorrow night into Tuesday. Another round of showers is possible Wednesday into Thursday. The first day of April could start the month off on a much warmer than normal note based on increasing support among the guidance. Overall, the first week of April could wind up near or somewhat cooler than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around March 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.26°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -1.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.707 today. On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.682 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.932 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.4° (1.6° above normal normal).

This is true. You have seen it. I have seen it. But many of the Millennials and even Gen-Z who have only been exposed to his more recent post-AccuWeather work have not. Awareness of this other side makes the current evolution all the more painful.

The way I see it is that he has made a terrible deal in the closing years of his forecasting career. He has chosen to devote his last forecasting years to an all-consuming crusade of climate change denial. It increasingly appears that he has chosen to become a mercenary for climate change denialism. Much as in war where mercenaries garner little respect and even less sympathy for their having exchanged their ethical principles for profit, the same holds true in a wide range of professional fields, including meteorology. Today, his forecasts are almost always skewed toward the cold, snowy, or extreme side. Data, maps, and models are cherry-picked and risk is distorted in order to push the preferred narrative. The implicit idea increasingly appears that he uses his forecasts are used as "proof" that warming is not occurring, internal variability explains all outcomes, etc., all to support his narrative of climate change denial. Former AccuWeather colleagues have weighed in on Twitter, but to no avail. Some leading climate scientists have also tried to share data with him on Twitter to address his increasingly wild ideas, again to no avail. It seems that no one can influence him. He does not listen. There is no openness on his part to allow the data, evidence, and facts to influence his thinking. He remains unwavering in his crusade to deny climate change. What about his recent high-profile busts? Very likely, that's not a problem for his fossil fuel clients. His fossil fuel clients very likely have little or no interest in his forecasting accuracy. They can rely on other forecasters for their weather guidance. In their eyes, his most valuable role is to loudly push climate change denial. That he undertakes that effort at the expense of his professional credibility, forecasting legacy, and personal reputation is wholly irrelevant to those clients. Those clients are deeply unethical actors. Otherwise, they would not be engaging in their current practices, much less evading responsibility for the harm they are inflicting on ecosystems and future generations. Given that context, they have no hesitation to hire mercenaries who engage in the self-destruction of all of that they once were and all that they are. As long as those individuals keep advancing those clients' interests, the payments keep rolling in. That's the deal. He does not understand its terms. He does not see its nefarious requirements. That proverbial "bargain with the Devil" is a tragic last chapter in his career. When he leaves the forecasting arena, his past work as an Expert Forecaster at AccuWeather won't be remembered. Most have only been exposed to his recent and present reality. Instead, he will be recalled as one who futilely, stubbornly, and inaccurately forecast extremes, while rejecting climate science despite its being built on a foundation of unequivocal and overwhelming evidence. He still has some time left to change course. I sincerely hope that he will do so. But that increasingly appears to be as unlikely a scenario as the verification of some of his recent almost still-born extreme forecasts. He ignores his former colleagues. He dismisses the counsel of experts in the field. He tunes out the evidence. Will he listen to anyone? The reputational destruction his present course entails will be a great tragedy. That unfolding tragedy is already in its advanced stages of evolution.

The guidance has been growing warmer for April 1st. Currently, the guidance suggests that readings will reach the middle and upper 60s around New York City. Philadelphia could be in the 70s:

I suspect his refusal to accept the basic physics associated with greenhouse gases is leading him to grab onto anything that he could plausibly use to try to muddy the picture. That even a quick look at the evidence knocks down his latest idea is irrelevant. He selects the data, maps, and ideas that fit his thinking and never looks farther. That approach has severely undermined his forecasting. He either doesn't know or doesn't care. This is a very sad last chapter of his forecasting career.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny, breezy and much milder today. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 63° Tomorrow will be milder as the sun returns. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.3°; 15-Year: 53.9° Newark: 30-Year: 54.2°; 15-Year: 55.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.4°; 15-Year: 57.1°

Heavy snow fell across southern Wisconsin today. Milwaukee picked up 8.9" (old record: 5.2", 1933) and Madison saw 12.1" (old record: 5.0", 1899). That was Milwaukee's 7th highest daily snowfall on or after March 25th. It was Madison's 2nd highest daily snowfall on or after March 25th. Meanwhile, the snow-starved Philadelphia to New York City area saw showers. Some sleet pellets mixed in early as if to taunt New Yorkers hoping for a spring miracle, reminding them about the winter that never was. Following the system that brought the chilly rain to the region, tomorrow will turn fair and milder. A stiff breeze will create a blustery feel, even as the temperature rises well into the 50s and perhaps even lower 60s. Showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday. Another round of showers is possible Wednesday into Thursday. The first week of April could be somewhat cooler than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around March 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.26°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -3.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.498 today. On March 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.935 (RMM). The March 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.801 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.4° (1.6° above normal normal).

There was a bright display as far south as North Carolina overnight.

Only clouds here.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with some showers and perhaps a thundershower. Some areas could see a few sleet pellets early on. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 48° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 55° Tomorrow will be milder as the sun returns. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.9°; 15-Year: 53.6° Newark: 30-Year: 53.8°; 15-Year: 54.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.0°; 15-Year: 56.7°