donsutherland1

With no snowfall in the forecast, today will become Baltimore's 700th consecutive day during which the City has not seen at least 1" of daily snowfall.

% of Below and Above Normal Days in New York City. The last year with a majority of below normal days was 2009 when 56% of days were cooler than normal.

That was likely it. It was a large lake.

I saw a caldera from an ancient explosion while out there, but don't recall the name of it. We even experienced a strong aftershock while there. I had spent time seeing a number of the Hindu temples (many in ruins) and a Buddhist temple.

I was there. It's a fabulous place.

1987-88 was a second year El Niño that peaked late summer/early fall and then collapsed late winter/early spring. The following winter featured a strong La Niña event.

In the wake of the region's most recent rainfall, Allentown, Bridgeport, Manchester, NH and New Haven have now seen their wettest December on record. New York City's seasonal precipitation has climbed to 59.19", which ranks as the 11th highest figure on record. Temperatures rose into the 50s across much of the region. Islip saw the temperature hit 56°, which tied the daily record set in 1971, and tied in 2008 and 2018. Tomorrow will be another very mild day. Additional showers are possible, even as some sunshine is also likely. The unseasonably mild weather will likely continue through the remainder of December, but readings will be somewhat cooler than tomorrow's highs. Somewhat colder air should begin moving into the region to close December. The first week of January will likely feature somewhat below normal temperatures. However, severe cold appears unlikely. Initially, the arrival of a colder regime could coincide with a drier one, so snowfall prospects will remain limited. The second week of January could offer better opportunities for snowfall, as the retreat of cold air could occur while the pattern becomes wetter. There remains some uncertainty concerning the magnitude and duration of the colder period that could develop. At this time, it appears more likely than not that it will be seasonably cold or somewhat colder than normal with a duration of 1-2 weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.98°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions may strengthen somewhat further this month. The SOI was -3.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.741 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. Atlantic blocking is continuing to redevelop. On December 26 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.837 (RMM). The December 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.774 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.4° (5.3° above normal). That would make December 2023 the 2nd warmest December on record. With 2023 virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest Decembers on record, 60% of New York City's 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2000, including 40% since 2010, and all have occurred since 1980. Records go back to 1869.

NYC snowfall statistics for strong El Niño winters. Slow starts to the snow season are generally the rule. Around three-fourths of seasonal snowfall in such winters occurs after January 15th.

Three photos following the latest rainstorm, which saw a period of gusty winds. The photos reveal the growing erosion as a the waters from a slowly rising along Island Sound increasing come ashore during storms. The pictured bench was once surrounded by grass.

JFK's 30-Year rolling average is currently 26.7". JFK has one case of back-to-back winters with < 10" snowfall: 1996-97: 9.8" and 1997-98: 3.6". Prior to those winters, its 30-year average snowfall was 21.2".

The mild weather rolls on as the second warmest December and warmest year on record concludes in New York City. 1. The weekly guidance now shows the shift to a cooler, but not cold pattern for the first week of January. The duration could be 1-2 weeks. 2. Consistent with historic experience following cases where the Arctic Oscillation (AO) reached +3.000 or above during December 15-25, no big snowfalls are likely through at least January 10. The biggest snowfall for such cases was 6.4" in during winter January 2013-14. 3. The forthcoming sudden stratospheric warming event (SSWE) is looking less likely to be a major event. But its impact, even if a major event occurs, would not be instantaneous. It typically takes 2-4 weeks for its propagation into and through the troposphere begin to influence the hemispheric weather patterns. Its peak influence is mainly being felt 30-45 days after the event. Such events can trigger or reinforce Atlantic blocking. They do not provide anything close to guarantees of severe cold or major snowstorms. 4. That the models have diverged from strong consensus that had favored a major warming event and splitting of the polar vortex isn't too surprising. Such events are still not well understood. Over the medium and extended range, forecasting skill remains low. 5. Strong El Niño winters are typically "backloaded." Most of the seasonal snowfall falls January 16 or later in the New York City area. Those with the most pessimistic view might argue that 75% of 0.0" is still 0.0". 6. New York City has never seen two consecutive winters with less than 10" of snow since regular recordkeeping began in 1869. Such cases typically begin to appear when average seasonal snowfall declines below 25.0" (not the case for NYC at present). They remain relatively infrequent when seasonal snowfall falls to between 15.0" and 19.9" and but become relatively frequent once seasonal snowfall declines below 15.0". Considering the data from Allentown, Atlantic City, Baltimore, Boston, Bridgeport, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Washington, DC, there is no record of such occurrences when the seasonal snowfall was 25.0" or above. But with the larger climate context shifting, one can't completely rule out such a case for New York City as extremes increase in non-linear fashion, even as such an outcome remains unlikely. One will likely begin to see such occurrences later in the 2030s and beyond as seasonal snowfall declines toward 20" by the mid-2030s and then below it afterward as winters continue to warm. The last such period with seasonal snowfall declining below 25.0" (the 1990s) had some "near misses." In sum, Winter 2023-24 appears to remain on a trajectory that will result in an overall warm anomaly. Snowfall could be below normal but taking into consideration ENSO climatology, it is premature to assume another almost snowless winter is locked in stone.

In terms of cold, Winter 1917-18 ranks first (2.5 sigma below the historic mean). Winter 1880-81 ranks second (2.2 sigma). Winter 1917-18 only had slightly above normal snowfall, which brought its overall ranking to 9th on a standardized winter temperature-seasonal snowfall basis.

NYC won't reach double digits this month. JFK has 52.54" of precipitation this year as of 8:35 am.

New York City's ongoing less than 1" daily snowfall drought will reach 683 days today. That will exceed the old record by 300 days.

Its final score was 1st (27.7° winter mean temperature and 60.3" of snow). 1995-96 was first in snowfall but second overall, as it was a much warmer winter than 1872-73.

ABE has already broken its old monthly record of 7.89” from 1973.

Rainfall totals for December 27th through 11:25 pm include: Allentown: 1.87" (old record: 1.55", 1930) Baltimore: 1.63" (old record: 1.21", 1894) Philadelphia: 1.23" Washington, DC: 1.20" (old record: 1.16", 1894) Wilmington, DE: 1.79" (old record: 1.76", 1930) Guidance and the upstream rainfall totals above suggest that the New York City area remains on track for a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts.

Latest HREF: Should NYC see 1"-2" of rain, 2023 will rank as the 11th wettest year on record. Records go back to 1869.

Through December 27th, Winter 1872-1873 ranked best in terms of the combination of cold (27.3° mean temperature) and snowfall (26.8") to date.

On December 26, 2023, 91% of NWS first order sites had below normal snowfall:

Overnight, temperatures will hold steady or slowly rise reaching the lower 50s in many parts of the region. Tomorrow and Friday will be very mild days. The unseasonably mild weather will likely continue through the remainder of December. Light rain will become steadier and heavier tonight. The rain will continue through much of tomorrow before tapering off to showers tomorrow night. Additional showers are possible on Friday. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with some locally higher amounts in excess of 3.00" is likely across the region. Somewhat colder air should begin moving into the region to close December. The first week of January will likely feature somewhat below normal temperatures. However, severe cold appears unlikely. Initially, the arrival of a colder regime could coincide with a drier one, so snowfall prospects will remain limited. The second week of January could offer better opportunities for snowfall, as the retreat of cold air could occur as the pattern becomes wetter. There remains some uncertainty concerning the magnitude and duration of the colder period that could develop. At this time, it appears more likely than not that it will be seasonably cold or somewhat colder than normal with a duration of 1-2 weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.98°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions may strengthen somewhat further this month. The SOI was +0.67 on December 26. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.717 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. Atlantic blocking is continuing to redevelop. On December 25 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.774 (RMM). The December 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.451 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.4° (5.3° above normal). That would make December 2023 the 2nd warmest December on record. With 2023 virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest Decembers on record, 60% of New York City's 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2000, including 40% since 2010, and all have occurred since 1980. Records go back to 1869.

That's the last time I can recall seeing some of it.

The GEFS 35-days Ensemble Control snowfall map was posted on Twitter/X this morning. That raises the following question: What is the difference between Fantasy 1 and Fantasy 2? Fantasy 1 exists only in the virtual realm thanks to AI. Fantasy 2 will almost certainly disappear with the passage of time. Only a single January has seen 30" or more snowfall in Central Park (2011: 36.0") and just four months since January 1869 have seen 30" or more snowfall.

I pulled the data and then checked for consecutive days.

Although I am not aware of records being kept on fog specifically, the record stretch of days for visibility falling below 1 mile at Islip is 9 days: June 20-28, 1973.