donsutherland1

As of 11 am, daily records have already fallen at Hartford, Islip, New York City-JFK Airport, Providence and White Plains. Boston has tied its daily record.

New high temperature records have already been set at Islip and White Plains. New Haven has tied its daily record. The 12z HRRR shows the temperature again rising to 90° or above in New York City and the lower 90s at Newark.

On April 7, 2010, JFK reached 87, LGA reached 91, and Central Park hit 92.

Under abundant sunshine, temperatures rose to record levels in much of the region. Records included: Albany: 89° (old record: 87°, 1977) Atlantic City: 87° (old record: 83°, 1977 and 2018) Binghamton: 86° (old record: 80°, 1977) Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 74°, 1968) Burlington: 88° (old record: 84°, 1945) ***Highest temperature so early in the season*** Concord: 88° (tied record set in 1945) Hartford: 92° (old record: 86°, 1977) Islip: 84° (old record: 82°, 1977) Manchester, NH: 90° (old record: 77°, 1945 and 1949) ***Highest temperature so early in the season*** Mount Pocono: 82° (old record: 81°, 1977) New York City-Central Park: 90° (old record: 88°, 1977) New York City-JFK Airport: 85° (tied record set in 1977) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 89° (old record: 85°, 1977) Newark: 92° (old record: 86°, 1977) Ottawa: 85° (old record: 80°, 1945) Poughkeepsie: 90° (old record: 88°, 1945) Providence: 88° (old record: 85°, 1945 and 1977) Salisbury: 87° (old record: 86°, 1977) Scranton: 87° (old record: 85°, 1945) Syracuse: 86° (old record: 85°, 1945) Toronto: 84° (old record: 81°, 1977) Wilmington, DE: 88° (old record: 85°, 1977) Temperatures could reach the middle and upper 80s tomorrow, possibly challenging or breaking additional record highs. Afterward, cooler weather will follow. Next week could even see a day where readings struggle to get out of the 50s. Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Afterward, the latest EPS weeklies suggest that the month could finish with near normal readings. The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was: Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest) Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest) Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest) New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest) New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest) Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest) Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest) Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest) White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +0.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.482 today. On April 11 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.033 (RMM). The April 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.921 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.4° (3.7° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

April 17, 2002 is the earliest.

Temperatures surged into the 80s across much of the region following a morning of record high minimum temperatures. Daily record high minimum temperatures included: Bridgeport: 53° (old record: 49°, 2017) Islip: 59° (old record: 51°, 2008) New York City-Central Park: 64° (old record: 58°, 1947 and 2017) New York City-JFK Airport: 56° (old record: 52°, 2017) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 66° (old record: 54°, 1945, 1996, and 2017) Newark: 64° (old record: 59°, 2017) Temperatures could reach the middle and upper 80s tomorrow and Friday, possibly challenging or breaking some record highs. Some of the more aggressive guidance shows some 90° readings tomorrow. Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Afterward, the latest EPS weeklies suggest that the month could finish with near normal readings. The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was: Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest) Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest) Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest) New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest) New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest) Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest) Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest) Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest) White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +1.73 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.262 today. On April 10 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.918 (RMM). The April 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.724 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.5° (3.8° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

Record high minimum temperatures will be set today in Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City (Central Park, JFK, LGA), Newark, and White Plains.

Temperatures rose into the middle and upper 60s today. Even warmer weather lies ahead. From the Southwest to Northern Plains, exceptional heat prevailed. High temperatures included: Cheyenne: 80° (old record: 73°, 1982 and 1998) Denver: 85° (old record: 80°, 1982) Phoenix: 99° (old record: 98°, 1989) Rapid City: 87° (old record: 85°, 1985) Salt Lake City: 83° (old record: 80°, 1934) Scotts Bluff, NE: 92° (old record: 85°, 1916 and 1985) Tucson: 99° (old record: 95°, 1907, 1988, and 2018) Some of this warmth will spill over into the East to end the week. Temperatures could reach the middle 80s by late in the week, possibly challenging or breaking some record highs on Friday. Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Afterward, the latest EPS weeklies suggest that the month could finish with near normal readings. The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was: Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest) Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest) Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest) New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest) New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest) Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest) Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest) Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest) White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +0.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.473 today. On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.717 (RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.477 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.4° (3.7° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

Cheyenne also recorded its earliest 80-degree reading on record.

Temperatures rose into the middle and upper 60s today. Even warmer weather lies ahead. In coming days, the calendar will seemingly be turned ahead closer to summer, as an impressive warmup evolves. Temperatures could reach the middle 80s by late in the week, possibly challenging or breaking some record highs on Friday. Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Afterward, the latest EPS weeklies suggest that the month could finish with near normal readings. The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was: Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest) Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest) Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest) New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest) New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest) Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest) Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest) Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest) White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +5.55 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.066 today. On April 8 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.470 (RMM). The April 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.205 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.3° (3.6° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

Summer seasonal forecast: The above map would imply that the New York City area could see a summer that could rank as cool as 24th hottest to as warm as 4th hottest. Much can still change before the final map is issued next month. The overall theme is for widespread warmth in the Northern Hemisphere. The rapidly developing El Niño event should also produce a generally warmer than normal winter across much of the Southern Hemisphere.

Today was a glorious early April day with deep blue skies, bright sunshine, and pleasant temperatures. In coming days, the calendar will seemingly be turned ahead closer to summer, as an impressive warmup evolves. Temperatures could reach the middle 80s by late in the week, possibly challenging or breaking some record highs on Friday. Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was: Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest) Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest) Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest) New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest) New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest) Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest) Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest) Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest) White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest) Yesterday, it was noted that based on historic climate data, New York City's current warmer climate regime, and the latest guidance, 2022-2023 will finish with the lowest seasonal snowfall on record (2.3"). Although it is far too soon to really look ahead, none of the ten seasons with less than 10" snowfall were followed by a second consecutive season with less than 10" snowfall. 1997-98 (3.5") and 1998-99 (12.7") came closest. Half of those seasons were followed by 30" or more snowfall. However, a very low snowfall amount cannot be ruled out. First, New York City is in a much warmer climate regime than had been the case for most of those prior seasons. Second, there is the risk of a strong El Niño following on the heels of a La Niña. Such a sequence often leads to very low snowfall. For now, all of that is just speculation. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +21.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.276 today. On April 7 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.204 (RMM). The April 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.941 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.3° (3.6° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

Some early April scenes at the New York Botanical Garden.

Cooler air returned to close the week. The cool weather will continue through tomorrow before another potentially impressive warmup develops. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures should be somewhat higher than they were today. Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If some of the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was: Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest) Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest) Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest) New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest) New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest) Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest) Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest) Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest) White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest) In addition, given the forecast pattern and historical data, New York City has very likely seen 2022-2023 record the lowest seasonal snowfall on record with just 2.3" of snow. The old record of 2.8" was set during 1972-1973. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +33.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.276 today. On April 6 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.937 (RMM). The April 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.866 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.0° (3.3° above normal).

New York City will record its lowest seasonal snowfall on record for the 2022-2023 snow season. Based on historic data (no measurable snowfall has fallen during the 4/9-30 period with a 30-year mean temperature of 55For above) and guidance, this is now the very likely outcome.

Cooler air has returned to close the week. The cool weather will continue through the weekend before another potentially impressive warmup develops. In parts of Florida, excessive early spring warmth continued. Both Fort Myers and Tampa demolished their record warmest start to April. At Fort Myers, the temperature averaged 80.6°. The old record was 78.9° from 2017. At Tampa, the temperature averaged 79.3°. The old record was 76.9° from 2017. April 1-7, 2023 was both cities' warmest 7-day period so early in the season. Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If some of the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +23.94 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.001 today. On April 5 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.859 (RMM). The April 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.966 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.0° (3.3° above normal).

I did. This is troubling, as it’s a vital large-scale current. The paper was published in Nature. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05762-w

LGA missed its record of 80. EWR set a new record at 81.

The final high in NYC was 80. That broke the record of 79 that was set in 1912 and tied in 1921 and 1947.

Temperatures surged to near record and record high values across the region as the early fog burned off. Prior to the onset of a sea breeze, Islip crushed its daily record. Daily records included: Islip: 78° (old record: 71°, 1991 and 2010) New York City-Central Park: 79° (tied record set in 1912 and tied in 1921 and 1947) New York City-JFK Airport: 74° (old record: 73°, 2010) Newark: 81° (old record: 80°, 1947) Atlantic City saw the mercury reach a toasty 87°. Cooler air will now return to end the week. The cool weather will continue through the weekend before another potentially impressive warmup develops. If some of the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +12.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.185 today. On April 4 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.962 (RMM). The April 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.171 (RMM).

The latest data now shows the temperature getting close to 80° in New York City. Newark should rise into the lower 80s.

While the region was caught in low clouds, a chilly onshore breeze, drizzle, and fog, parts of the Middle Atlantic area saw temperatures surge to record highs. Records included: Baltimore: 84° (tied record set in 2010) Sterling, VA: 88° (old record: 86°, 2010) Washington, DC: 87° (old record: 86°, 1910) The warmest air so far this season will push into the region for tomorrow. Temperatures will soar into the middle and upper 70s in New York City and the lower 80s in parts of New Jersey southward. Following some late-day showers and thunderstorms, cooler air will return to end the week. The cool weather will continue through the weekend before another potentially impressive warmup develops. Overall, the first week of April will turn out warmer than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will remain confined largely to western and central North America. Some of the guidance brings a brief shot of the cooler air into the East early in the second week of April, but the EPS weeklies have backed off on the cold. If some of the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +1.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.567 today. On April 3 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.165 (RMM). The April 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.277 (RMM).

At the short range, there are EFI tools for CAPE and CAPE Shear. At the extended range, there is temperature, precipitation, and multi-parameter (includes a combination of temperature, precipitation, sea-level pressure, and wind gust).