donsutherland1

Temperatures soared into the middle and upper 60s in advance of an approaching cold front. Meanwhile, Anchorage saw its November snowfall reach 39.1". That broke the November record of 38.8" from 1994 and is the 5th highest monthly figure on record. November 1994 saw an El Niño with a strongly negative PDO. The warmth will soon be a memory. A cold front will cross the region tonight bringing scattered showers. In its wake, temperatures will hold nearly steady tomorrow morning and then fall during the afternoon. Cool weather will continue through Tuesday. Afterward, a strong cold front will move across the region during the middle of the week. A moderate to significant rainfall is likely. Afterward, the coldest air of the season will arrive. Thanksgiving Day could be blustery and very cold for the season with the temperature struggling to reach the lower 40s in New York City and Philadelphia. Temperatures will slowly moderate afterward. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around November 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar conditions: December 1972. The SOI was -0.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.539 today. On November 15 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.637 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.666 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (2.0° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019.

Continuing the illustration of how extended range models can fluctuate a lot over long timeframes, below is the latest CFSv2 forecast for November 22-28. Last week, it featured widespread warmth (a reversal from earlier). This week it features cool anomalies in much of Canada, parts of the Plains States, and the northeastern U.S.:

Typically, that would indicate an enhanced prospect for snow, but there are exceptions.

Tomorrow will be another very mild day. Highs will reach the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach 70°. However, a cold front will move across the region Friday night into Saturday bringing some showers. Generally rainfall amounts should be light (less than 0.25"). The long-range guidance has shifted. It now shows cooler air overspreading the region near or during the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The responsible cold front could bring a moderate to significant rainfall to the region. The colder conditions could last through the remainder of November. The shift in the guidance reaffirms the limitations of guidance beyond Week 2 and the reality that such outlooks are low-skill in nature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around November 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. The SOI was -10.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.417 today. On November 15 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.637 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.666 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.1° (1.9° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019.

Tomorrow will be noticeably milder. Readings will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 60s. Friday will be another very mild day. However, a cold front will move across the region Friday night into Saturday bringing some showers. An offshore storm could bring a soaking rain to eastern New England. The long-range guidance has shifted. It now shows cooler air overspreading the region near or during the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The colder conditions could last through the remainder of November. The shift in the guidance reaffirms the limitations of guidance beyond Week 2 and the reality that such outlooks are low-skill in nature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around November 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. The SOI was -15.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.092 today. On November 14 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.666 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.628 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (1.5° below normal).

After a frosty start, readings should become slightly milder tomorrow. The warmup will likely peak Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions could continue until late in the week before showers or periods of rain could move into the region Friday night into Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around November 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. The SOI was -21.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.462 today. On November 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1628 (RMM). The November 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.739 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.9° (1.3° below normal).

After a frosty start, readings should become slightly milder tomorrow. The warmup will likely peak Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions could continue until late in the week before showers or periods of rain could move into the region Friday night into Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. The SOI was -32.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.764 today. On November 11 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.755 (RMM). The November 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.696 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.8° below normal).

Tonight will again be mainly fair and cold. Readings outside New York City and Philadelphia will again dip below freezing. A warmup will commence early in the week. Dry conditions could continue until late in the week before showers or periods of rain could move into the region Friday night into Saturday. The long-range guidance suggests that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal with the possibility of some shorter cool shots. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen. The final week of te month could turn cooler for a time. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. The SOI was not available today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.237 today. On November 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.342 (RMM). The November 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.456 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.6° (0.4° below normal).

No. Rye’s Marshlands Conservancy.

More late fall photos. The high was just 44 despite bright sunshine.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is overspreading the region. That will likely be the coldest air mass so far this season, but the cold will be short-lived. Central Park will likely remain several degrees above freezing. During 1961-1990, Central Park's mean first freeze fell on November 11. Under the latest 1991-2020 base period, its first freeze typically occurs on November 20. A warmup will commence early next week. Dry conditions could continue until late in the week before showers could move into the region. The long-range guidance suggests that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal with the possibility of some shorter cool shots. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. The SOI was -20.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.140 today. On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.924 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.385 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

Some late autumn photos from Turkey Mountain Nature Preserve (Yorktown Heights, New York). Temperatures were around 50F.

If research by Jessica Tierney et al., is accurate, cloud feedbacks associated with rising greenhouse gas concentrations will amplify the warming. She observed: In addition, while the PETM-DA shows that the biggest changes in low cloud cover occur over the subtropical (upwelling zone) regions, clouds also decreased by 10 to 15% over the Southern Ocean and the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, and likely contributed to the elevated warming. A strong shortwave cloud feedback is a feature of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations that was previously shown to contribute to mid- to high-latitude warming, as both cloud cover and opacity decline nonlinearly with increasing CO2. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2205326119

Cooler air will begin to advance into the region tomorrow. A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive Saturday night or Sunday. That will likely be the coldest air mass so far this season, but the cold will be short-lived. A warmup will commence early next week. The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. The SOI was -11.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.133 today. On November 6 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.385 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.041 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.9° (0.1° below normal).

Personally, I think it will wind up on the warmer side of normal. The GFS still tends to cool things down around 240 hours. I suspect the warmer look on the GEFS and EPS is more likely to verify.

Cooler air will begin to advance into the region tomorrow. A reinformcing shot of cold air will arrive Saturday night or Sunday. That will likely be the coldest air mass so far this season, but the cold will be short-lived. A warmup will commence early next week. The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -12.03 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.020 today. On November 6 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.385 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.041 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

Annual public service announcement: Beware of long-range maps (especially those calling for cold and snow) and proclamations of imminent sudden or major stratospheric warming events on social media. Beyond two weeks, the maps have little skill. Beyond 7-10 days, forecasts for stratospheric warming events also have low skill.

Milder air will return tomorrow. Afterward, a strong cold front, perhaps preceded by some showers, will bring a period of colder weather to the region. Overall, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly. The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -17.82 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.349 today. On November 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.098 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.122 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

Temperatures rose into the 60s across the region today. However, parts of the Plains States saw monthly record highs. Monthly records included: Amarillo: 88°; Borger, TX: 91°; Childress, TX: 94°; Gage, OK: 93°; Hollis, OK: 95°; Vernon, TX: 92°; and, Wichita Falls, TX: 90°. Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler before milder air returns on Thursday. Afterward, a strong cold front, perhaps preceded by some showers, will bring a period of colder weather to the region. Overall, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly. The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -18.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.580 today. On November 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.122 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.310 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

Temperatures will rebound strongly tomorrow. That pattern will likely repeat itself in muted fashion for Wednesday and Thursday. Afterward, a strong cold front, perhaps preceded by some showers or a period of rain, will bring a period of colder weather to the region. Overall, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly. The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -14.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.418 today. On November 2 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.310 (RMM). The November 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.543 (RMM).

Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow before rebounding strongly on Tuesday. That patter will likely repeat itself for Wednesday and Thursday. Afterward, a strong cold front, perhaps preceded by some showers or a period of rain, will bring a period of colder weather to the region. Overall, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly. The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -9.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.291 today. On November 1 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.543 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.714 (RMM).

The early November chill will continue to moderate this weekend. Temperatures will likely top out in the 60s tomorrow. Another cold shot could arrive late next week, perhaps preceded by some showers or a period of rain. Overall, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was +1.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.934 today. On November 1 the MJO was not available. The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.714 (RMM).

The chill will continue to moderate this weekend. Moreover, a dry weekend appears to be in store. Nevertheless, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was +0.12 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.262 today. On October 31 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.714 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.940 (RMM).

This morning saw a widespread hard freeze across much of the region. Low temperatures included: Bridgeport: 30° Islip: 28° New Haven: 29° (tied record set in 1961 and tied in 1965) New York City: 35° Newark: 35° Philadelphia: 34° White Plains: 28° (tied record set in 2002) Elsewhere, record lows were recorded at Alexandria, LA (coldest low so early in the season), Danville, Lynchburg, and Macon, among other cities. Tonight will be fair and cold. Additional frost is likely outside New York City and Philadelphia. The chill will moderate by the weekend, but temperatures could average below normal through the first 10-14 days of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -3.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.265 today. On October 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.940 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.997 (RMM).

Areas outside of New York City and Philadelphia will see widespread freezes tonight. The chill will moderate by the weekend, but temperatures could average below normal through the first 10-14 days of November. October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was +0.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.802 today. On October 29 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.997 (RMM). The October 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.083 (RMM).