donsutherland1
-
Posts
21,839 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by donsutherland1
-
An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month and likely beyond it. The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through Sunday. Sunday will likely be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the 80s. There is potential for a moderate to significant rainfall Monday through Tuesday. The latest ECMWF weeklies have backed off the development of sustained warmer than normal conditions after the second week of June. The warmth is delayed until late in the month, but that's a low-skill forecasting range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +10.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.489 today. On June 7 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.593 (RMM). The June 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.591 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal).
-
An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month and likely beyond it. The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through Saturday. There is growing potential for a significant rainfall Monday through Tuesday. The latest ECMWF weeklies have backed off the development of sustained warmer than normal conditions after the second week of June. The warmth is delayed until late in the month, but that's a low-skill forecasting range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions are developing. The SOI was +8.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.628 today. On June 6 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.598 (RMM). The June 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.449 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.4° (0.6° below normal).
-
Canon EOS 70d
-
An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month. Tomorrow could start with additional smoke and haze. However, the New York City area has likely seen the worst of the smoke. The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through Saturday. Early next week has potential for at least a moderate rainfall. The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions are developing. The SOI was +6.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.540 today. On June 4 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.441 (RMM). The June 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.228 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (0.5° below normal).
-
Smoke from today:
-
View in the Bronx:
-
-
Smoke forecast for this evening:
-
Another smoky sunrise.
-
The 5 boroughs.
-
Tomorrow evening will again see very thick smoke in the New York City area.
-
An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month. Tomorrow will be another smoky day in the region. The smoke could again be especially thick during the evening. The generally dry weather will continue, though early next week has some potential for at least a moderate rainfall. The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions are developing. The SOI was -1.76 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.496 today.
-
This evening, well before sunset, the thick smoke from Quebec's distant wildfires obscured the sun from view. The heavy musty smell of the acrid smoke hung through the air.
-
Some small hail is falling in Rye Brook and Port Chester, NY as a thunderstorm passes through. Pea-sized hail in Rye Brook (photo from Angella): Near dime-sized hail from Port Chester, NY (photo from Silvio).
-
Smoky sunrise. The sun was not visible until 29 minutes after sunrise.
-
An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasantly warm. However, thick smoke from ongoing Canadian wildfires will create for unhealthy air. The smoke could be especially thick in and around the New York City area during the evening rush hour. The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions are developing. The SOI was -7.24 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.316 today. On June 3 the MJO data was not available. The June 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.205 (RMM) in Phase 1.
-
Evening rush hour could be quite smoky.
-
Temperatures this morning tumbled to their lowest readings in June in more than 20 years in parts of the New York City area. At Central Park, the 49° low temperature was the first June reading below 50° since June 7, 2000 when the mercury fell to 49°. Low temperatures included: Montgomery: 38° (old record: 39°, 2019) New York City-Central Park: 49° New York City-JFK Airport: 49° (tied record set in 1976) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 51° (tied record set in 1978 and tied in 1988 and 2003) White Plains: 44° (tied record set in 1964) Portland had a high temperature of 49° through 5 pm. The daily record low maximum temperature of 51° was set in 2018. If that high holds, today would be only the 6th day on record that Portland has had a high temperature below 50° in June. Records go back to 1874. The last such high temperature occurred on June 9, 1956. An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month. The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -15.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.113 today. On June 2 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.205 (RMM). The June 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.237 (RMM).
-
That was the first June temperature in the 40s in the Park since June 7, 2000.
-
JFK (49), LGA (51), and HPN (44) tied their daily record low temperatures. MGJ (38) set a new record.
-
In the wake of a push of much cooler air, readings were confined to the 60s in the New York City area. Parts of New England saw high temperatures in the lower and middle 50s. Bangor's high temperature of 50° broke the record low maximum reading of 55°, which was set in 2015. An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures has now gotten underway. No return to heat rivaling that of yesterday is likely through at least mid-month. The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -13.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.870 today. On June 1 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.236 (RMM). The May 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.254 (RMM).
-
Under bright sunshine, temperatures soared into the 90s in parts of the region including New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Coastal areas were held into 70s and 80s. Parts of the region also saw record high temperatures. Records included: Allentown: 96° (tied record set in 1925) Baltimore: 97° (old record: 96°, 1923) Binghamton: 91° (old record: 88°, 1978) ***Earliest 90° and 91° on record*** Buffalo: 91° (old record: 87°, 1919) Hartford: 94° (old record: 91°, 1961) Mount Pocono: 88° (old record: 87°, 1937) Poughkeepsie: 95° (old record: 90°, 1934, 1944 and 2007) Reading: 96° (old record: 95°, 1925) Scranton: 95° (old record: 94°, 1919) ***Earliest 95° on record*** Sterling, VA: 93° (old record: 91°, 1978, 2000 and 2009) Syracuse: 90° (tied record set in 2014) Watertown, NY: 89° (old record: 87°, 1970) Westfield, MA: 93° (old record: 90°, 2000) Worcester: 89° (tied record set in 1892 and tied in 1895 and 1920) Andover and Soverville in New Jersey both topped out at 97°. The heat will be swept away as a trough develops leading to a return of sustained cooler than normal conditions. Some of the models show a fairly impressive cold shot for early June to start the weekend. As a result, Saturday could see temperatures remain in the 60s in New York City and 50s in Boston. The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -17.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.445 today. On May 31 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.258 (RMM). The May 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.113 (RMM).
-
Summer has barely begun and Joe Bastardi is forecasting a cold and snowy Winter 2023-2024. His key assumption is that the evolving El Niño event will be a Modoki El Niño. Modoki events feature warm Region 3.4 anomalies and cold Region 1+2 anomalies. The latest ECMWF forecast calls for a basin-wide El Niño. At this time, it is far too soon to be sure about ENSO details (type and strength) other than the idea that an El Niño event will very likely develop. Seasonal forecasts typically have low skill, particularly when it comes to snowfall. Seasonal forecasts (modeling and forecaster) at this range do not have skill.
-
It is disappointing. Parts of PA have been even drier.
-
June started with above normal temperatures. The temperature rose into the 80s across much of the region. Some of the coastal areas saw temperatures hold in the upper 70s. Again, near record and record heat prevailed north of the region across parts of northern New England and southern Canada. Records included: Augusta, ME: 93° (old record: 92°, 2013) Baie-Comeau, QC: 83° (old record: 77°, 2007) Binghamton: 87° (old record: 86°, 1954 and 2011) Burlington: 96° (old record: 90°, 2011 and 2013) ***highest so early in the season*** Caribou: 93° (old record: 87°, 1995) Edmundston, NB: 93° (old record: 83°, 2011) Fredericton, NB: 95° (old record: 91°, 1937) Houlton, ME: 93° (old record: 86°, 1937 and 2013) L'Acadie, QC: 94° (old record: 88°, 2011) L'Assomption, QC: 97° (old record: 87°, 2011) Lebanon, NH: 96° (old record: 93°, 2013 Massena, NY: 91° (old record: 87°, 2018) Millinocket, ME: 96° (old record: 92°, 1920 and 1937) Miramichi, NB: 95° (old record: 91°, 2018) Montpelier: 90° (old record: 88°, 2013) Montreal: 94° (old record: 89°, 1892) Ottawa: 95° (old record: 92°, 1920) Plattsburgh: 90° (tied record set in 2013) Quebec City: 93° (old record: 86°, 2011) Saranac Lake, NY: 90° (old record: 87°, 1920) Scranton: 93° (tied record set in 1937) Sherbrooke: 90° (old record: 87°, 2013) Syracuse: 91° (tied record set in 1954) Tomorrow will be even warmer with parts of the region approaching or reaching 90°. However, a trough will develop afterward leading to a return of cooler conditions. Some of the models show a fairly impressive cold shot for early June. As a result, Saturday could see temperatures remain in the 60s in New York City and 50s in Boston. The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -25.94 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.153 today. On May 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.112 (RMM). The May 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.353 (RMM).
