frd

This may continue to go NW and rain is certainly an option for my area.

Intriguing, look to the NW Jack knows his stuff !

If I may , I understand everything you posted and totally agree, however, given the look of the pattern previously, combined with the weeks and weeks of -AO, -NAO and West based Greenland blocking one would have thought the area North of Dover Delaware and into the Wilmington corridor should have seen a lot more snow to date. I understand climo exists for a reason. As you mentioned our climo is lower due to elevation, ocean NE wind influence ( more so earlier in the season ) and I would even include our latitude as well. Miller Bs for sure are way more erratic in snowfall distribution. Even in the 2016 Blizzard where Bob got 30 inches our forecast bust here because the best dynamics were West of the Bay. So many variables. Hopefully the upcoming pattern eventually produces a storm where the coastal plain can benefit. Seems for my area, and maybe @CAPE's as well, a Nino might be more effective because we lock in CAD and then get vigorous over-running.

Hopefully the period mid month and beyond delivers for us in the coastal plain. I don't want to have to chase at Dewey Beach, however, if I did I get a Fractured prune donut, yum yum, but I digress, I want Middletown buried !

Snow cover in every state ! Of course I believe it

Miller A Baby

Katie bar the door.

I recall that as well. However, it doesn't appear to last.

Windy with snow flurries here. 35 degrees

Someone mentioned earlier they were concerned over the frigid Arctic conditions in Alaska being a bad sign for the East Coast, your animation shows the Artic Air in Alaska doesn't last there very long and then everything shift south and east into North America.

I meant from the Euro. The GFS and this morning's EPS went to that. I just didn't believe it. Honestly was hoping not to see that on this afternoon's run. I am still recovering from the weekend.

Who saw that coming ?

Like I said earlier, nothing this winter is easy.

Without question. Warmer in the East and more cold out West, colder and over a larger area as well.

Me too, time for a break. If next week changes like that, the entire evolution of the month might change.

That was suppose to be a gradual process. Too fast, versus earlier evolutions.

@psuhoffman Cold air gone for next week, big change. Well, at least according to the GFS.

I am not an expert on using GFS 100HPA eddy heat flux but when I do look at the animation moving forward there seems to have made a rather big change . I don't see the trough digging on the East coast any longer. Everything seems to be West to East . basically flatter until at least the 17 th of Feb.

Did you see there were some "subtle " positive changes.

Cool animation, focus on the 12 th As others have mentioned, will need for the block to turn and retro before we really have a true threat to track.

Too bad the ICON is trash .

Here we have the GFS animation frames

Here we have the updated 35 day 10 hPa 60 N GEFS, notice after this brief reversal, we approach and even exceed the ERA5 mean moving forward near the middle of the month. Looking at the PV on animation moving forward it seems to get itself better organized late in the period. Not sure if this is this is correct because the GOES-5 does not go past 240 hours with the animation, while the GFS goes to 384 hours.

Very interesting. As others have mentioned we may indeed see a repeating / recycling of the - NAO in Feb and possibly into March as well. Of course 09-10 had a Nino versus this year's Nina. So far that may be the reason for less snowfall in our region versus locations much further NE. Here in the Mid Atlantic do great with a STJ/ overrunning from Ninos into 1040 High placed to our North. You know the deal. Tougher in a Nina. more play with the Northern jet/ spacing issues, etc.