frd

Heather

Intriguing probabilities here , thinking more so a Mid Atlantic event, simple speculation though.

Growing evidence of real cold into Canada as Feb advances, while the - NAO recycles, along with hopefully some Pac improvement. Vortex remains weak.

Looks pretty

Can we move to a hybrid where it's less pure Miller A and a evolution of 1958? Wonder when the modeling will correctly gauge the block and the upstream features? Will be cool to see if the impact zone shifts further South( from New England) closer to our area.

Excellent recap psu , thanks ! Grateful we have another opportunity, maybe this time things work out.

You still feel with better spacing this might be the one ? This potential storm has support across several models and ensembles, not that it means much, but just saying.

Way, way out there Rated on a complexity scale 9 out of 10 . I am being generous.

I would think if I were a betting man that the event on Monday has better thermal odds than this week. At least maybe start as snow and even end as snow , but that hardly ever works out. Are you forming any ideas about mid to later Feb. ? I feel there is some growing evidence that after the cold period ( you posted about earlier ) a cutter visits and then based on evolutions in the Pac we may get another opportunity to get fooled near the 17 th to 28 th of Feb. Thoughts ?

Mount Holly AFD for next Monday, meh, more of the same. For Sunday...An upper-level trough which may be comprised of a closed low centered near the western Great Lakes during Sunday sends leading energy in its base into the Mid-Atlantic region. This will drive surface low pressure near or just south of Delmarva Sunday night. There is a surface high centered well north in Canada with some semblance of a wedge down into our region, however the overall setup is less certain. Given the main energy hanging back over the Great Lakes, we may be dealing with some snow to a wintry mix to a change to rain in some areas. These details are much less certain this far out in time. &&

This is modeled to slow down and spin and then move out. Will feel like a winter's day next Monday. Complex is the new norm around here

Some associations

Interesting, so basically could have been worse. Also may shed a bit of light on Feb and March

Eastern Canada with above normal temps. So far from December 1 st never got a signal form the Canadian 10 day mean that portended an incoming cold air mass, let alone an arctic air mass with staying power. Unless the Pac improves and the EPO delivers last lasting cold into Northern Canada that eventually bleeds SE in time we are cooked. Meaning Atlantic Ocean SSTs continue to remain relatively stable due to the lack of arctic intrusions. For all the - AO , etc. no deliver of Old Man winter.

I settle for the Euro control, occasional MECS, being right once every 5 years. Such a tease, and hardly ever turns out correct.

Still can't believe the arctic oscillation has been negative since December 1st with several dives down below -2 standard deviations, but only one event to show for it. Will seasonal wavelengths changes help in February, hard to tell with the outcomes so far.

The ensembles are only as good as the operational they are based on. They can’t help if the core model is wrong. Their usefulness is in telling us of the operational had a fluke run and went off on a tangent due to some discreet error even by its own physics. They offer a scope of variability within the physics of that model. But if the model is wrong about something due to a core bias that flaw will infect the ensembles also. All the ensembles agreeing with the op said was that the op wasn’t a fluke within its own physics parameters. But ensembles don’t ensure the models physical representations are sound. You need to compare to other guidance to determine and guess at that. The past few winters it appears all the various model ensembles have had major set backs. Statistically speaking I can not prove it, but one could perceive the overall accuracy has declined. If anything, achieving phasing in a favorable thermal environment is a losing battle the last three years. Very frustrating for sure.

The story of our winter.

It is simply incredible when you look at the GFS and this morning's European even the GFS ensembles and the huge differences at 120 hours between them. Sometimes folks will mention to GFS has been consistent for 3 days in a row but even that means little. consistency does not necessarily mean accuracy eventually the GFS flipped and went to the European solution I believe this was a few years ago

Exactly .. some brief wording from the latest Mount Holly AFD. This isn`t a classic coastal low as it will be quickly progressing further off shore once it is east of us, so this doesn`t appear to be a system that will produce blockbuster amounts of snow. That being said, and with the consideration of how much uncertainty there remains with precip type, it will likely be Saturday afternoon before we will have enough confidence for a snow/ice/rain amount forecast that covers the entire event.

No representation of CAD here. Look at that boundary going West to East over long distances, a bit strange . We need a press of colder air. A while back I believe this was forecasted way colder. I think

Yep, related to lower dews as mentioned by @MillvilleWx and the colder thermal profiles you posted about. We live in a tough area. I have all my hopes set aside for later next week.

Mount Holly Meh

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The 0z GFS op would be historic for parts of NC and that is why I believe the outcome will not verify. Eric Web mentioned it has been over 40 years since Fayetteville has seen a storm deliver 8 inches of more of snow. Been 65 years for a 12 inch event there. No one should write off the event near the 29 th yet.