frd

Next week has some interest.

The bands moving up the Eastern Shore, including my area are dropping near .60 inches if rain, looks like rainfall rates of .90 per hour. Preparing for grass green up and re-invigoration.

Robust + PNA spike upcoming. Supports early June cool temps in the East. Meanwhile SSTs off the coast are rather chilly, stuck in the low to mid 50's for 2 months. Ouch !

Are you salivating about the potential of robust blocking in 20-21 winter? Delayed effect and timed also with the favorable QBO . Need an @Isotherm grain of salt to ponder on over the hot summer months.

Was that a record ? There are many this AM.

Yep, enjoy the cold , once departed might be very warm until mid October, wondering about the implications of a Nina, would be interesting in the backdrop of an eventual -NAO winter and delayed onset of the effects from the solar min. Like to see some big changes in the Pac leading up to winter. However, feels great out there this AM. Went to get bagels and coffee and the temp was 35 degrees. Amazing !!!

The strong seasonal and late season PV combined with the holly grail for cold, - AO, - NAO and a rising + PNA leads to this : Saturday looks downright blustery, with cold air filtering into the area with a strong northwest wind. Guidance is rather concerning for this time frame, with model soundings showing very deep mixing (likely above the 800-mb pressure level). Such mixing would promote advisory-level winds across the area, and likely some additional showers (at least in the northern CWA). For now, kept mention of showers to areas near/north of I-80 but would not be surprised to see some showers spread farther south. Some snow showers may continue in the Poconos, especially in the morning. Highs are expected to be around 20 degrees below seasonal averages, with lows on Saturday night likely reaching the freezing mark or lower in the Poconos and possibly the Lehigh Valley (with winds possibly keeping things from tanking to the freezing mark elsewhere). Sunday looks only somewhat better, with winds diminishing to a degree and temperatures a few degrees warmer. Nevertheless, it will likely be breezy again, with highs about 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages. A weak system looks to affect the region early next week, but models vary somewhat on timing and intensity. Have slight-chance to chance PoPs Sunday night through Monday night given the lingering uncertainty. With continued large-scale troughing across the area in a rather blocky upper-level pattern, expect temperatures to continue to be well below climatology.

Not sure the latest EPS but looks chilly.

A +PNA..... will wonders never cease.

Since the NAO block got going been rather active here HA hybrid events ....... wish it were winter, would be memorable. Bummer

Agreed. Already had many down limbs from previous event, saving grace some of my trees are still not fully leafed. This time the direction is South versus W and WNW during the last wind event.

I agree with you showme regarding the individual impact to many families. Yet I read this morning many professional economists expect GDP growth at 6 % the end of this year after a deep V shaped recession. I don't buy that. A lot of uncertainty about the resurgence of COVID 19 in the Fall. There are many unknowns in my opinion. Not to mention other economists are predicting near depression like GDP numbers into 2021.

Clearing here currently with the early morning storms moving off the Southern NJ coastline. Wind threat appears impressive, even after the any squall line later this afternoon, and the expiration of the wind advisory , gusty winds will continue until later Saturday, combined with temps in the 30's over night. HM chimes in.

This actually goes against what many private mets think this coming April will be like, but the weather will do its own thing. Looking further ahead, some analogs suggest a cooler summer and others a furnace.

The PSU storm version 3.0 goes along with this And this as well. .

In my opinion the stellar correlation to the AO, which has held positive since December 22, 2019 was, and is a great forecast tool. The AO is still heading higher in the short term. Never a chance for any snow despite the earlier modeling. Even low temps that might have broken freezing this weekend are in the mid 30's for my region.

I am very sorry for the loss your family member. I just had to put our dog to sleep two weeks ago. The sadness was so overwhelming. We miss him very much as I know you miss your pal and buddy. The bonds we make and the impact of a dog on a person's life is almost impossible to describe. The benefit to our mental health and the companionship, and devoted unwavering love is a thing to cherish . I cried for hours and was deeply depressed for days. I will always miss my best friend. Those we love do not leave us but walk besides us every day. Invisible and silent but always near. You can feel it at times though. I am sure your dog lived a wonderful life and you can always reflect back that you and your family brought years of happiness to your beloved terrier.

Looking ahead it seems like the growing season might be ahead of schedule. When do you drop your crab grass treatment? I normally look to the forsythia, they say as long as you drop it before they bloom you are good, as crab grass seeds tend to germinate at a specific soil temp which normally follows after the first blooms of the forsythia bush. Wondering whether they bloom early this year.

Scand blocking coming up it seems, not - NAO depiction though.

Northern Delaware missing the somewhat better action in your area, currently a somewhat chilly 45 degrees here.

Cape Cod crush job incoming. Maybe the wind can blow the moss of my trees. So wet, even after the recent dry several days. Meanwhile, the last 30 day AO state and amplitude suggests a warm March. The CPC recently updated the 30 day outlook to mild across wide areas of the country for March. So, for now the focus becomes what of April? Some analogs suggest a cooler April after a mild March. Personally bring me dryness and sun in April and no eternal 15 days in a row of dark depressing cloudy days.

Speculations can be made, and not sure myself the causes here as referenced by Maue beyond lagged effects and warm oceans, but this trend along with the lack of a strong Nino is a bit concerning. This itself is remarkable as well.

Agreed, gaining sun fast and next week DST starts, also get some sun and vit D 3 conversion going on which is proven to increase your resistance to viruses and strengthens your immune system, and a natural anti depressant too! I have given up on snow weeks ago. I still look every few days at the models but expect nothing and so far nothing it has been. On a long term note of interest, these bad winters have happened before and we will bounce back in the next few years.

Hopefully this background state changes as the year progresses. Even HM commented the last time in regards to the HL and the NAM this winter was way back in the Pinatubo era. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1997/fs113-97/ Deep Westerlies, as Simon states, and your Westerly dominant AAM regime mentioned by Matt are keys . Put that on your checklist next December. No changes expected here for at least a month or longer, I might speculate months.