frd

High dew points set to return later this week. I imagine a sustained cooler pattern may not manifest itself until later in the month, or beyond.

Might get a glimpse into the boreal winter pattern and outcomes during the end of Sept and early October according tho Ben.

I like to know that as well, and once determined, I would find it interesting to see what, if any , correlation there is to a later Fall and early winter NAO signal or tendency because of this potential event, with the disclaimer, there may be zero relationship.

As bluewave noted today, this is not your typical pattern coming up , based on previous Septembers. I would welcome with open arms any cooler weather in early to mid September.

In terms of days 5 to 7 from the WPC , nationwide this is the least rainfall I have seen in months. Maybe we dry out a bit after this Friday. A cooler air mass next weekend is also a growing possibility.

Incredible rainfall rates here. Maybe 3 inches or more per hour. Middletown and near by areas are getting pounded, this is the third storm in less than 24 hours to dump excessive rainfall. Monthly rainfall for August is mind blowing!

This is insane here, 2 Severe warnings, hail, wind gusts and incredible sheets of rain combined with vivid lightening .

Next Saturday looks interesting in regards to remnants of Laura and/ or an MCS passing near the region. Imagine following this event reinforced NW flow.

Wonder if September continues the theme of recent late summers with the expanded WAR or if we get a break this year. Silly CFS, but why buck the recent trends. Early September you think looks be be normal based on these indicies then maybe warmer after Sept 10th .

Interesting that we do have these intervals where we do go dry for 5 to 8 days and then the moisture returns with a vengeance. This has been repeating for a few months I believe. Maybe we will get into some tropical moisture sliding by to our South in time beyond day 7, or more likely the possibility of some significant convection with the arrival of the cooler air mass the end of next week.

Rather impressive heat dome predicted. And, very, very hot !

Nino - ish for a time.

Certainly feels that way. Holly Grail of winter I see currently: + PNA - NAO - AO Would be fitting to see it continue in the months ahead, then firmly reverse as we near December.

Fescue grass already looks better last two days with cooler temps .Just purchased and placed new blades on the mower for a cleaner cut and less chance of disease. Cutting grass vertically for a better cut. Plan to rent aerator and do over-seeding end of the month when days are even shorter, just hope no late August or early Sept heat waves. That includes deluges from any tropical system as well.

It was nice last night near 7 PM. Had our new greyhound, Bronson, out for his evening walk. Sky cleared off as well. Nice little breeze. Hey, if you like pleasant the weather next Tuesday and Wednesday looks lovely. I think it warrants a beach trip with an offshore wind and surf zone in the mid 70's. Hey, ice cream man , I like a coconut fruit bar please. ( North Wildwood has a rooming ice cream man whom strolls the beach with various yummy frozen novelties. )

The Nina winter of 95-96, as you mentioned was very unusual. We had cold air and coinciding active systems, producing an abundance of snowfall. Not your so called typical Nina by any means. Currently this past decade, and even more so the last 5 years summer blocking has manifested and when the winter months evolve the previous blocking from the summer and Fall diminishes, and even disappears. The last couple winters had the AO and the NAO go weeks on end in the positive phase. Snow advance, overall NH snow cover, and November blocking that some had used to forecast winter blocking ahead never took hold. The various cause have been discussed here. Two years in a row we had record high NH snow cover only to suffer January reversals that were sudden and unrecoverable from. Simply though it appears to evolve around the Hadley cell, the basin wide Pacific warmth, especially in the far SW Pacific, the record setting fast Pac jet, and recently you have to contemplate the strange gyrations of the QBO. Things were never in sync to produce extended cold during the last two winters. I would think unless we achieve some intervals of moderate blocking in the HL and help from the extinct winter - NAO we face serious obstacles in achieving even climo snowfall during the 20-21 winter season.

Data...... . more data ..... somewhere among all these model runs there has to be a fantasy snowstorm

Totally agree. However, a colder than normal winter month will occur here eventually. Whether by volcanic eruption on a massive scale, or a simple serendipitous event.

Heavier rains here now along with just issued flood advisories , rain has for sure moved NE . Becoming intense downpours as well last 5 minutes . Flood Advisory National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1146 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 DEC003-MDC015-029-131845- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0147.200813T1546Z-200813T1845Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle DE-Kent MD-Cecil MD- 1146 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Flood Advisory for... New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northeastern Kent County in northeastern Maryland... Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... * Until 245 PM EDT. * At 1142 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain over portions of the area, resulting in rainfall rates of one to two inches per hours in spots. Minor flooding can be expected in those areas where the heaviest rain happens to fall.

Came across some posts ( research ), maybe BAMMWX, that alluded to a July and August -AO average correlates into a warm December in the East. Eh, whats new.

This is of interest from a weather perspective.

I would think only a matter of time until it gets your yard and seedlings.

Rain has started here as the rain area has moved in from the SW during the past 30 minutes. More mold and fungus guaranteed.

Do you think by day 10 we may start to see a couple days of NW flow, versus the continuous Easterly/NE and SE flow depicted by the models?

Are you worried about too much rain coming? Will it disturb or displace the seedlings?