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The Atlantic is going to boil this summer. As will your grass , but maybe the extreme heat will kill your moles. Might be an early and a extended beach season this year . The robust Western Atlantic ridge may be so large at times to deflect storms into the Gulf but we are to a degree due for a East Coast threat that effects a large portion of the coastline, such as a Donna track. And yes, it will be a long summer but you never know, the consensus early on is for heat but why not think chaos and maybe a cooler summer is in the cards. Hard to go against extreme heat coming out of this winter but you never know.

Very impressive deep dive on the PNA coming up along with the expected adjustment on the AO index. currently moving back up in the extended after a rather feeble attempt at neutral. The long lasting AO positive trend shows no indication of reversing as does the very strong vortex.

Ugly just ugly !!!!

Check this out. Even a month out the vortex remains resilient and above ERA-Interim climo. And at times very strong as well. Very remarkable given we enter March in less than one week. Wonder the implications if and when we flip to a - NAM state. Also thinking about the implications for hurricane season with those warm Atlantic SSTs and maybe, just maybe, a cooler summer up North and then a lagged solar min and a more firmly established - QBO combine to drive a colder winter next year. Hey, total speculation but as Bob stated and Tom as well, we are due for a flip from the + extremes and Tom is looking for - NAO phases to manifest more so in the next few years. Pretty cool

I was referring to both the magnitude and duration of the AO. So far this season it has achieved several records in the positive phase. Although the NAO is extremely unpredictable at short leads, as you are aware, I have found the AO because of the nature of the domain and other related factors and drivers to be easier to forecast at long leads. Some seasonal forecasters have done a stellar job at predicting the predominant AO phase for the met winter. Even Don S has posted many updates where he ties in the AO phase, magnitude and duration to produce possible examples of the winter weather prospects pretty far ahead in time. Also, using the vortex as a guide has been usefull as well. Early in the season it appeared most of our cold was from vortex elongations and mid to later in the season, the strong vortex vacillation cycle of the 20th of the month, as mentioned by HM has worked very well for colder outbreaks but of short very duration.

The CFS is not a reliable model. I think we all know that by now. Never place any confidence in the forecast for the next month until we get to the very end of the current month we are in and even then it is not very useful. It was portraying a very cold March but as Don mentions it is slowly doing what it has done every month so far this winter which is turn warmer . Simply focus on the AO and the NAO state and you will have a much better idea about any winter weather potential in our area. From Don S update a short while ago << Morning thoughts... 1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°. 2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°. 3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong. 4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region. The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region.

Are you surprised ? What you posted goes along nicely with this graph below. The message from following the AO this season along with the overall NAM state has never been to expect any real significant snow threats. Combine that with the winter's positive NAO and a negative PNA for months you get more assurance that snow is a no go. Maybe if we ramp up the Atlantic SSTs off the Jersey and VA coasts to 83 to 85 degrees F. by late August we get a real cat 5 opportunity this season to a very high latitude. Also, last year in late August, I believe, we achieved a very deep -NAO and it contributed to a very cool air mass for the time of year. So a -NAO in June , July and early August would not be a cool factor for our area but if the NAO goes deep enough in later August we can get a cooler air mass to invade the area. I recall ,as bluewave posted about it, talking about that very anomalous -NAO event. I also believe it occurred towards the end of the long lasting record - NAO cycle that lasted for weeks on end. Now we have gone the other way with the NAO.

Had he continued to forecast and review models and provide useful old fashion weather input like he did 20 years ago he would have many times more followers versus the way he has branched off into climate debate and reversing his stance on the long range patterns. I would look forward with eager anticipation to his daily posts many years ago. What he knows still rivals the models at times but he refuses to use that approach any longer, except maybe on an occasion or two. I also note the frustration as well.

Might as well say........ Just looked through all guidance for the first time in nearly a week. Walked away feeling like this. I'll check back in 10 months.

We should be firmly negative across the board later in the year along with the delayed effects of the solar cycle. Next winter will again afford the opportunity to look into the newer seasonal trends and drivers. Wondering what the West Pac will look like along with the Pac in general. Any hope with the + PDO this winter was quickly reversed. Almost feel we need to wait longer to issue seasonal forecasts for the winter, downplaying early head fakes. Last couple winters we have learned to look more at angular momentum, the Hadley cell, West Pac warm pool , and Westerly momentum along with the central Pac ridge along with the IOD and cycling pattern of the MJO. Wonder what the killer will be for next winter?

Without looking at the EPS I am wondering about the EPO domain . It has been off the mark several times this season when it forecasts a - EPO. I am not sure though what it looks like in that area further done the line. And, it is really amazing how forecasts of a - AO and a - NAO at long leads transitions back to positive in the medium range, The SST structures and the back ground state will simply not allow a - AO or a - NAO. Any attempt is simply a model error in the long range, when that changes I have no idea.

That is big bucks !

Maybe soon he can post hurricane landfall probability maps, we seriously need some excitement in these parts ! If winter can't deliver maybe spring and the summer can. I can see an Irene track this year. The Westward shifting strike zone should put the East Coast under pressure.

Appreciate your posts and recognition of the realities this winter season. Early March has been a window for a while, and was even mentioned back in December, although more in the context of a back loaded winter. Statistically, even in this horrendous winter we could score something white. Still fun to see if we can get an anomalous snow event.

Impressive from even back in October when the models forecasted the positive NAM state. And, even a very positive NAO. The outcomes this year from the seasonal models have been stellar.

While model swings happened in November once the vortexes coupled in late December the basic ideas were more stable. I recall the every two week pattern flips, then after a while that manifested to mostly warm with at most an occasional two day period of cooler weather. November will go down as the month with the most impressive negative temp departures.

Interesting

I even wrote that in a way to temper my perceived observations. Last few years has been discouraging to say the least.

Certainly has been a tendency for hotter summers it seems lately, although I wonder the data set regarding Don's research. Are we to possible expect different outcomes this time around due to changes in summer blocking and changes in the base state? Hard to argue that the Atlantic 's warm SSTs are not going to be a factor in the summer and in the early Fall this year. We have not knocked down those ocean temps much this winter at all. I can see implications possibly for the upcoming Hurricane season. Touching on blocking in the NAO domain , in hindsight those who expressed concern about the record - NAO back in the late spring and summer were correct. When the NAO flipped to positive it remained there for about 95 % of the winter beginning on December 1 st.

Wonder whether there is research on the SPV and the TPV in winters such as 2020 and what the next winter evolved into? If the Pac has any influence on the vortex in terms of precursor patterns and weakening, etc. are we looking at stronger winter vortex setting up in future winters ? Seems that although up North has been cold, not so sure this will carry over to any long term benefit though. Certainly the high speed jet circling the NH is remarkable, this image is a great representation. Again, what will be the spill over effects be for the early summer? Some modeling is indicating a somewhat warmer spring. But, but beyond the seasonal vortex weakening and changing wavelengths maybe a more normal summer might await us.

Of the hundreds of snow maps posted during this winter only about .000000001 % ever looked good for us. Snow maps in the medium range and long range have proven to be total BS this winter. Meanwhile .....

You think the new regime that might favor more - NAO gets underway next winter ? Or, is the lag effect longer in your opinion?

Believe @Isotherm went with below average seasonal snowfall, with any significant snowfall in late Feb and March. What about Kieth Allen 's forecast? Thought he went super warm and little snow?

Conflicting signals for spring . We are in a new base state, and to a degree the outcomes for the spring might be surprising, for that matter maybe even the early summer as well. This record +AO and relentless powerful vortex shows no sign in weakening. Another record + push may occur shortly with the AO. Fascinating weather in terms of extremes at the HL. The 12 to 18 month repeating pattern of hyper jet, Pac ridge and little winter blocking continues. The remarkable seasonal associations of using both the the +PNA and the -AO to forecast snowfall so far have been flawless. Never even have to look at a model when you have such an extreme +AO , and such a long duration - PNA combined with a very poor NAM state and little to any - NAO episodes.

I believe SD. It has during the past 6 weeks gyrated significantly between neutral and highly positive. Just as the EPO has been forecasted several times since mid December to go negative only to adjust to positive or neutral, so has the AO reverted back to highly positive or positive after modeling indicated it was going to go back to negative territory.