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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    The 0z GFS op would be historic for parts of NC and that is why I believe the outcome will not verify. Eric Web mentioned it has been over 40 years since Fayetteville has seen a storm deliver 8 inches of more of snow. Been 65 years for a 12 inch event there. No one should write off the event near the 29 th yet.
  2. frd
    DT going to have to update his SECS checklist. Basically no favorable tele , indices, or pattern will support "significant" snow any longer in our area. We have gone beyond bad luck. This storm if rain will be the fourth time the rug has been pulled. And, if the colder scenario storm on the 28 or 29 th does not deliver that's it for me. The 6z run is a sad site.
  3. frd
    It has weakened and looks to remain so. This next attempt may simply help achieve another round of -AO and hopefully a - NAM state extension or another cycle of it during the month of February.
  4. frd
    Hmmm. Pac extension , cyclonic wave breaking, develop Aleutian High and potentially another strat hit.
  5. frd
    Another hit
  6. frd
    I know about suppression but of all the models the GFS showing this concerns me the least.
  7. frd
    Yes, Feb. may not be a shutout. Regarding March, I am intrigued if we can maintain the - NAO going into March when the wavelengths shorten. Who knows maybe the coldest to average temps could sneak into that time period. Being a shoulder month with a weaker vortex and another Pac retraction. Here is mid Feb
  8. frd
    @psuhoffman Even going into early Feb , not bad. You said it would be decent until the retrogression gets us to around the 3 rd. Here we are at the 5 th,
  9. frd
    Looking further into Feb. hopefully the retraction delivers by early Feb, then we may go the other way with a Pac extension.
  10. frd
    I would think a few days after this could be the event of the - AO cycle
  11. frd
    Best of the season so far I believe.
  12. frd
    I wish this was tomorrow
  13. frd
    DAMN !!!!!!!!!!
  14. frd
    Well this is surprising
  15. frd
    Some changes
  16. frd
    I be more comfortable with a Key West snowstorm
  17. frd
    Trusting the GFS and its ensembles means that you are certain is has Canada all figured out...... NOT
  18. frd
    4 High pressure systems and rain to my door step. can't believe this crap
  19. frd
    If I got 15 inches of snow the next 15 days I be talking the next ice age.
  20. frd
    Typical disclaimers apply
  21. frd
    Yes, but before that, even if true, are several opportunities for us to get some snow.
  22. frd
  23. frd
    Re load the pattern
  24. frd
    The coolest image yet at hour 384
  25. frd
    @psuhoffman the positives keep getting eliminated.. I am speculating whether we have hit the lowest point of the - AO cycle this winter. Maybe in a few days we achieve the lowest - SD.
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