Seems to be + PNA pulse around this time, which may enter into the final outcomes and encourage the system to be more of a coastal impact for our area.
Structure really opening it up late in the period. Not a tight vortex at all.
Just looking at this animation of the vortex I would assume a - NAM state possible. Speculation of course. Supports the 35 day GEFS above though.
Yes, simply keep it weak.
Going forward it will be interesting to see if in later Feb and March the effects of changing wavelengths combined with lingering arctic air masses and whether they mix it up along the East coast.
Snow on snow would be nice. Would it be safe to assume each wave effects areas a little further South as baroclinic zone shifts south . But can't get away from thinking second or third event had major surprises because of poor modeling of upstream blocking. Just speculation.
Interesting
@RaleighWx
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23h
Well the pacific has been unfavorable all year. If it moves into or ends up in phase 7 in February it is much colder looking with -glaam. MJO not everything, but so far the met winter has been mild for most last image