frd

Interesting, look out West as well.

I recall the famous December 4 th or 5 th snowstorm from 2002 I believe. The lead into that great winter, and a great tip off to the potential as well for the months ahead. We had 6 to 8 inches of snow here. The following day my daughter had piano lessons, I recall taking her out that morning and with the incoming cold air combined with deep snow cover we achieved a low of 6 or 7 degrees F. I believe. Snow cover, if deep enough, as you know is a real boost to lower temps at night and the day as well.

I do a lot better in moderate Ninos, even strong ones with blocking here.

The 10 day threat may just move East

Next Friday , this may be the Webb over running event, hard to tell.

Next one

Its prime climo, I expect better. Up North has a better climo, we all know that, but honestly look at some of those totals from the last storm. . I guess I am also frustrated by this last storm, was forecasted to get 10 inches and only received 4 inches.

Sucks for us here yet AGAIN according to the Euro . Actually I rather go frigid and miss all the modeled snow with a threat of suppression. Same areas that got screwed the last three days get screwed again.

GEFS

CMC

Wondering whether the GFS is over doing the cold intensity and placement, so possibly this results in too much suppression. However, as you mention, it is a Nina so the GFS can not be discounted at this time.

Going to require some phasing, lets see the afternoon EPS . I can't wait 10 days for more snow.

If the afternoon EPS comes in again like last night we will have multiple threats to consider moving towards mid month. I feel the GFS is not handing Canada well and the evolution of the TPV.

Amy's post looking even better. Meaning after 60 days the composite will look more like a typical SSW response here in NA , even more in the NE I believe.

Update

Here we go again

Source regions getting primed to deliver arctic air over large areas of the country. Combined with snow cover and looking nasty.

Nice moisture orientation.

Comparison Hm.....

BAMWX gets a poor grade . Severe cold on the way. Coldest yet. This supports LOWER LATITUDE blizzard ( 38 degrees North to 40.5 North) in upcoming pattern.

A big difference - colder Western Canada and all this snow cover.

Miller A's are at least more predictable, and deliver the goods way more often than Miller B s . Miller Bs normally favor areas North of us. Like this storm. Miller A totals vary depending on exact track, strength of the low, and other factors.

I will do a summersault if we can ever get to the point where we are talking about cold powder and ratios of 15 to 1 .