frd

For the love of God, just once have this come true. I always say you have to have big digital snows show up fist and then have a Southward placement of them to feel there may be potential down the road. Total speculation, but if the EPS were to start gaining members and the numbers increase overall I say this period has merit. On a side note, there also seems to be some connection at this time from a pv elongation.

The robust Pac jet is causing issues yet again, similar to other times this winter, and last winter as well. Still way out in time though.

I will believe post verification, but maybe there is an interval near the to, or prior to the weekend event, that the NAO actually goes negative. We can talk about block location versus the value, but at least the Atlantic looks interesting to a degree. Whether it plays a role in the outcome not sure.

Nothing like consensus, and shame on me for even looking at a product such at this, but still it is amusing.

The accuracy and verification of the icon is ....... seriously I think it is not terrible but not in the same league as the better models. When was the last time is had a win over over models?

The mother of all backlash snows for my area was the 96 event. Hours passed after the primary passed to my East without snow falling, but as the upper energy dived into the system the backlash developed and really hit areas further West and SW. Isolated pockets of 30 inches of snow, really incredible. I also remember this storm because it was seen well in advance but while the American models had it more a Southern Storm, more so DC the Euro went for a larger system and extending more NE to effect a larger area. Accu weather at the time in Philly, through channel 6 ABC, were honking on a Wednesday for the following weekend that a major Nor Easter Snowstorm would effect the area. ( with a high degree of confidence ) This is when the reputation of the Euro rose to recognition I believe. The tag team ETA and the Euro at the time were both talked about a lot by Accu Weather and KYW News radio who at the time had Joel Myers and Elliot Abrams doing play by play on the event. I loved that storm. Awesome track and the perfect set up.

True, and I respect HM as well. However, you are correct, HM has struggled in so much that his various calls on certain events have occurred, ( precursor events, and signals etc. ) however, the intended impacts have not manifested into - NAO cycles and deep - EPO periods, or a weakening vortex, etc. I admire his work and his track record is still very good. His call for the -EPO period in which we could experience a 4 to 6 week spell of real winter- like cold never materialized so far, and may not unless we see a dramatic change soon. Everyone, except for a couple folks, have struggled this winter so far. The only one that comes to mind whom predicted less snow and warmer temps along with a averaged + NAO and little blocking in the HL has been Isotherm. He has been stellar so far this winter. His insights as previously discussed earlier this week has guided his seasonal forecast well so far. Whomever can forecast the long range correctly a majority of the time deserves huge kudos and monetary rewards. It is the most difficult and challenging aspect in weather forecasting I feel. The changing drivers and evolving base states are re-creating the useful data used to guide seasonal forecasting, causing a diminishing of previously used weather analogs and methods in my opinion.

If you want to focus in on a period of interest in regards to the vortex then look to Feb 1 st to Feb 5 th This period is where the heat flux starts to move poleward. These have been rare this season so far. Will it be enough, tune in during early Feb to see what transpires.

Anything hopeful I will take. This does fit the time period down the road in which the vortex may start to weaken, and the calls for a - NAO to set in towards later Feb and early March. We can only hope at this point.

Good points. I can certainly see a record low snowfall total for this winter season. Tracking lately has no real inner-fulfillment. The STJ showed up, but meaningless, in a base state of zero cold air, no blocking, cutters, progressive systems, etc. If we don't score in the 10 day window or late in Feb or March snow totals in the Coastal Plain and in my area as well might be just a trace to an inch.

Of note the IOD area and the NE Pac

Interesting

After a minor peak upwards the IOD is down to + 0.12 the lowest yet 20191021,20191027,2.06 20191028,20191103,2.01 20191104,20191110,1.67 20191111,20191117,1.58 20191118,20191124,1.36 20191125,20191201,1.14 20191202,20191208,0.86 20191209,20191215,0.82 20191216,20191222,0.56 20191223,20191229,0.31 20191230,20200105,0.17 20200106,20200112,0.34 20200113,20200119,0.12

Regarding the PNA and the Euro - this is interesting.

So far this winter the JMA has been doing rather well I believe with features inside of weeks two. Until recently when it forecasted the - EPO to develop and it was a false alarm. I feel the - EPO will not be denied indefinitely. Would make sense for it to show in Feb. Then, on its coat tale, would be possible - NAO period later in Feb., or more likely in early March based on the seasonal odds.

Looks like an attempt to start altering the NAM state as we begin Feb. Expected impacts would be later in the month, but we might start to see a more favorable HL background as soon as mid Feb. Should this occur, there is the possibility it might lock in for a couple weeks towards later Feb and early March. As we get deeper in Feb. hopefully a more robust cold air source gets established in Canada, that we can tap into. Maybe the process begins soon.

Ha ha yea, the true impact was way further North, simply trying to cheer myself up. Until the vortex weakens and the NAM state changes I would into any snow solution for us. Might be near Feb 20th that there is a chance into March, otherwise more of the same. Too many issues in the overall NH pattern. The seasonal models months ago continue to have correctly forecasted the NAM state and the lack of any significant NAO blocking. All we can hope is a very, very back loaded winter. The previous record + IOD , along with other issues are really taking time to resolve.

Little bit more on the AAM

I don't care what anyone else says, I am viewing HM's post in the context that we are getting a March blizzard this year. I mean why else would he post this, right . Who cares about the NAM state right now.

Maybe a regime change near Alaska down the road.

Alright HM.

As a follow up from the Met GloSea5 model animation, here is the GFS. I give you this as consideration of a displacement event, but not a SSW. I feel a SSWE is very unlikely. However, ongoing down the road this might help induce a change in later Feb with the NAM state. Not sure what the latest is with heat flux, I know up to this point it has been meager.

Made a post a little while back being a little more favorable about cold for Feb, given a variety of factors. I feel the Pac may become more conducive but mentioned the NAM state. I mentioned I was hoping we start to see some changes with the AO going more neutral and even negative during Feb. I do feel that is going to take a while. A few days back I think the EPS 46 had the AO positive into late Feb. Not sure the latest. I see this AM Furtado posted this. I imagine he is referring to having the blocking needed to secure a more longer lasting cold period. I think it is too early too worry about this. Maybe the blocking will arrive simply deeper into Feb. Other factors may compensate and help us with snow and cold opportunities, earlier in the month regardless of the NAM state.

Looking into Feb. it appears the MJO will be a plus, versus a negative. Still hopeful for opportunities. Really like to see an improvement in the NAM state. I would hope it starts to show up in the next couple weeks. from bluewave for those into the MJO: < It looks like the models are going for forcing in the MJO 6 and 1- 2 regions the next few weeks. So we’ll have to see what that combination looks like in the actual pattern. Plus the +AAM spike gets added to the mix. So a continuation of La Niña and El Niño influences which shows up in the split flow. >

That would work, and make a lot of folks happy. And, the best part , as you mentioned, is that the active period continues well past this time of interest into Feb. And IMHO, it may remain active with the STJ as the more traditional Nino-ish background state exerts itself more.