frd

This time the axis is more West to East . Just happy this this period has some hits. Long way to go, but still a positive.

Cold enough

Near this date there could be a big one, maybe, possibly. Seriously, at this time frame that is so beautiful.

I have lost respect for them, however, Allan seems enthused and the general depiction is over running during the pattern evolution.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I personally feel the probability of above normal climo snowfall is heightened from Jan 25 th to Feb 10 th. Time will tell.

Pretty

Yes, we have gone to Easterlies twice so far . Two days ago, as psu stated, we were a a record negative for the date . Yesterday was close I believe by 1

Me like even if it is the CMC

As HM stated a while back, seems to be moving up in time now from the start 20 to 30 days.

Recovery questionable @SimonLeeWx Replying to @SimonLeeWx The GEFS 35-day shows the point of uncertainty (abrupt spread growth) in the 10 hPa evolution around Jan 25-30. Some members continue to recover the vortex toward average, while others decelerate or even go for another U reversal. I think this is a point to keep eyes on! 12:58 PM · Jan 16, 2021·Twitter Web App

@poolz1

Could be nice early Feb. even beyond as well

Add in some changes and BOOM for the Northern crew.

Latest 1/16/2021 NAM forecast looks to be holding up well.

Long range the PV making its way closer to NA

Now On Feb 1 st

Awesome toggle link to Really shows the changes later in the period https://fh004579.webs.act.reading.ac.uk/gfs_hf/vstar_tstar_100.html

OMG, slightly below normal cold in southern Canada.

Hot off the press, the 1/16/2021 GEFS lost all its members that supported a stronger vortex. Also noticed the extended duration of easterlies. Nice

Clustering supports that

Good , weaker vortex.

This goes along with the above post regarding the GFS NH polar vortex ellipse profile animation . Judah's animation matches the animation form stratobserve.com

Lastly, another huge change from what was forecasted the last 14 days . Movement towards Northern NA versus Siberia. This starts near hour 240 and speeding up from there. https://stratobserve.com/fcst_ell_vert

Another significant change in the long range , a rather broad vortex in a N S elongated fashion is predicted versus what was forecasted a few days ago as a solidified , more organized tighter vortex, mostly over Eurasia.

As psu used this image in a previous post, but wanted to point out this is an improvement from a couple days ago. Basically the - NAM states not deteriorating .