frd
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Everything posted by frd
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@poolz1 Ed was one of the first, along with Matt Hugo, calling for a Jan SSWE. This is a rare event as Ed mentions, regarding the 100hPa u winds. As for modeling the Euro seasonal also had a SSWE modeled for Jan.
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Once they reverse they stay that way for at least 10 days, however, the event is still unfolding and the entire progression will be cool to watch for implications during the month of February.
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Exactly. Thank you for clearing that up .
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Eric Webb commented that the long-range GEFS was starting to look like a weenie run overnight . This afternoon's run only reinforces that trend and outcome.
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Talk dirty......................... I like it.
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Ji would have to punt all of January. But, rejoice in February. We shall see.
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I am sure that you are aware that the stratospheric warming event seems to pulse the polar vortex into Northern Canada then shifts it around so there may be two great time periods separated by average to even sub-par. The GFS NH polar vortex elipse shows the movement at long range. Also, another or secondary warming may be in the cards. This may lead to another deep dive down in Late Jan. So much to consider.
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Have you checked out the super long-range Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation they seem to approach neutral after being very deeply negative . Doyou agree with this assessment , again I am only looking at one model what do you think?
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GFS did rather well.
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That was one extreme wave 1 event.
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Wow, 918 hPa center, just another extreme event. Have a feeling more are on the way , and a couple in our region during the next 8 weeks.
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There is your low level arctic bleed moving SSE at hour 324 and beyond as the + EAMT seems to be relaxing for a time and things start to noticeable improve in the Pac. You have same incredibly cold air over in Eurasia.
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@poolz1 Ramping up
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WOOF also very active to say the least..... snow on snow
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920 mb, Wow !
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Pac is coming along. Damn, sweet progression mid month.
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@poolz1 pretty neat
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I love this animation, really hope the GEFS has the right idea. Its beautiful ! The GEFS has been doing well overall, so hopefully this wave retrogression is correct.
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Euro pretty firm on Jan 5 th. Getting closer.
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Coming soon to CAPE's backyard.
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Today there is increased consensus on keeping the AO negative near - 3 SD for an extended period of time, possibly even lower towards mid Jan.
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Hopefully the last cutter for a while afterwards, if the GEFS is correct. Then, we track the various impulses moving under the block as the pattern continues to improve. Looks like exciting tracking opportunities from mid Jan into Feb. I would speculate, as you ,mentioned, real threats for our area start near the 14 th or 15 th. In the past there have been multiple times when we scored with a so so Pac, but a stellar -AO and - NAO.
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Hmmm......
