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= I believe anything above a + 5 SD AO in Feb. has only happened five times since 1950 , this run may break +5 and even get close to + 6. There has never been a snowfall in Philly or Southward greater than 6 inches I believe in a regime such as this, at least according to Don S. in a recent update he posted. We all know that as the wave lengths shorten in late Feb we can get more significant snowfalls across the region, but we have a month to go to get there. On a side note, just checked out some coastal SST and is is very warm along the Atlantic surf zone for this time of the year. Some Feb periods have had readings of 35 to 36 degrees F., right now some locals are are at 46 to 49 degrees F. warmer further South. Lack of continuous NW winds, cold air masses, plus less coastal storms might be the reasons.

Yep, anomalies we are looking at , but still, it is remarkable the extent of above average air masses.

How about a Nina next winter ........ Very unwise to talk about such things a year in advance, but I guess it is one option. Not even going to speculate about the implications, unless we get hit with mega clippers and Manitoba Maulers. Some mets are going with another Nino next winter, first I heard about a Nina. However, look at the model that is going in that the direction, the CFSv2, ha ha, that model has hardly any skill at all. It can not predict anything with even remote accuracy. Even at the door step of a new month it crumbles in regards to temps. More interesting to ponder this than look at the current AO progs.

Sometimes what Bob does is smart, step away. I am OK, in the last couple years I no longer get very upset with warm weather in the winter. I still feel we get opportunities in March.

Hmm... Just like warms Decembers after the 20th recently, why not another attempt at 80 degrees in Feb. Total speculation of course. The AO is going way high and if the major MJO event hits the right phase maybe we challenge a couple records.

OMG, I hope I am not that nutty. But, you get the point. I am sure my numbers were low :-)

Lol I wasnt attacking you. I actually learn alot from you but weve had one snowstorm since 2016 so I am not sure what's worked out. What you usually present is far fetched scenarios that go agsinst models so it's an uphill battle...hence my statement about one day you will beat the models Please move to banter if better there, but the point of this is the back ground state, our climo, and how you achieve long term seasonal snowfall is important to consider. I believe and know there have been periods like this before, where it would not snow. Or, better to say, yearly snowfall totals were very low. Like the 90's maybe. However, there has been changes and no denying the base state seems to be warming, psu hits that topic nicely. showme puts a lot of time and effort into his wrap ups, I love them. I just simply feel the last three years has been extra tough because of changing factors which guide and play a hand in the winter weather around here, and in the NH as well. You can make the point that ever since 2016 ( minus the Blizzard ) whatever can go wrong will go wrong in terms of cold and snow . ( except March 2018 ) Lets see over the course of three years I have seen a 6 inch EPS snow mean in our area not even deliver. Seen the GFS predict 4 days in a row a massive snowstorm, which folks believed even though there was no Euro support. Guess what, no snow. Seen the Icon fail 123 times Seen the CMC fail 178 times Seen the new GFS predict the Day after tomorrow scenario with a frozen wasteland into the summer, about 50 times , all I got was flies, sunburn and chapped lips. Record Fast Pac jet al over the NH. Fog , fog and more fog and lots of dew in the winters....and hey there was fog but no snow Record low min all the time it seems Seen the 46 Day snowfall from the Euro and what happened should be discontinued worthless Judah calling for a - AO, ah forget about it Seen many frustrated seasonal forecasters the last two years But, if we did not have this hobby and did not always seek the answers about the weather in the long range everything I listed above I would not even know about. I would get home from work and look on the TV, my cell or on my laptop at my local forecast and see what the weather would be. A two way street, great to watch the future for a chance to know first hand before anyone else a blizzard or MECS is coming, but also on the flip side, knowing that the next 30 days might be crap and having to deal with knowing that and how to get past that disappointment. Hence the Panic room and the emotional swings.

I mean there is some data that points to a temporary weakening of the vortex, add whatever lag effect there is and you get to the date in question. Still hard to believe, but like you said, there is a chance.

If we can establish some glaciers in the deep South might help our chances up this way. I'm in.

The move into phase 6 on some models despite a growing sub seasonal signal in the central Pac. , which is interesting . Not sure what Ventrice is alluding to with his idea of a very strong MJO event developing later in Feb. Of course he did not state where that phase might target. On a side note, not liking the possible new trend regarding the AO. Last couple days seems more consensus on it going higher versus previously was more neutral. Some models give the vortex a hit soon, but it recovers shortly thereafter. Maybe that is being reflected in the numbers, although the time frame does not really match.

Here you can make your own conclusions, but you can clearly see the impact of the jet stream , weekly mean ( wind speeds at 250 hPa ) and notice how it is oriented /magnitude early in 2019 and at the end of 2019.

Here is the decent GloSea 5 data showing the next 45 days of zonal winds. Bottom line is the vortex does not weaken, and hence most likely the NAM state remains unfavorable during Feb. and even March. Certainly no SSWE this winter. If you look at some models in the medium range you will see a dip in zonal winds but then they come back up. As stated previously this season, the vortex is very resilient and recovers after attempts to weaken it. Either timing was off in wave 1 and 2 attempts or simply the delivery was not efficient. Bravo @Isotherm

@psuhoffman awesome stuff if the research and conclusions are correct.

@psuhoffman not sure you track this but this is interesting. The Euro monthly now includes zonal winds at 60 and 10

aka Just another Midwest snowstorm. Honestly, think about it , is there any indication that this winter's base state and indices really support this idea he has? I don't need GFS snow maps, probabilities map, EPS mean snowfall mean, MJO etc., all I need is to simply look the AO and the PNA domains, and they say no to snow. ( Don S research and stats back this up ) As mentioned a month ago, when these indices become favorable that is when we score a significant event, until then, more of the same. More cutters, more transitional weather. More mild than cold.

This is pretty cool.

Hopefully in a week and past Eastern Canada will be colder . Again ,take these deviations to heart as to what they mean, and yes Canada is cold, however what I am looking for, and hoping for, is getting a colder air mass to develop to our North in early to mid Feb and then to move South into our region.

There are some potential reasons, as discussed last week, that March may deliver this year. I would not be surprised in the least to see snow totals in March greater than December 1 st to Feb 29th in our region "if " we do not score in Feb with a significant event of 6 inches or more. Yeah, that is not saying much , but if March were to deliver it might lend a little ammo to the belief winter starts later and either ends later or gets invigorated later in the season. ie late season blocking I don't see a March 2018 at this time. But, you never know. Why would an anomalous Davis Straights block develop, but I leave the door open. But March seems a good period as some mentioned this in seasonal forecasts. It is certainly possible the EPO stays neutral or positive through March and the AO stays neutral to positive as well. But, like you mentioned psu some things do give some hope that this March may have a favorable period. If by mid Feb we see the NAM state begin to change in our favor, and if Canada is very cold, that might be a clue that March can deliver. If the NAM remains neutral than the cold is locked up t our North with the continuation of the fast progressive /cutter flow and at most short intervals of cooler air in a slightly above temp. regime. Just some speculation.

Most here know this already but still..................

Pretty sad when you look out from our region. The Southern portions of Canada and most of the US in general equal very little snow.

I also read the fast flow across thousands of miles of the NH will decrease model accuracy. So be aware that all solutions in the medium, and long range especially, will have have some significant swings and changes. Only making the active periods even more prone to model chaos.

I really hope the later season IOD influence is cold as it should be, not some nutty new thing.

@Ji keep an eye on early Feb., just as a period of interest , goes along with Simon Lee's post and HM's as well.

There have been times this winter, more so back in November and December where the vortex can become more prone to displacement events and elongations. Folks will look at the 10 hP winds GPH for clues as to what may happen down the road. During these times our weather was effected with cold intrusions. The animation above was focused more so on a possible split, but note the orientation as well, it becomes stretched and elongated and almost splits at 10 hP. But, there is more to it than that, as the animation only focused on 10 hP. But, yes, it can effect our weather is the short answer. But it would take pages to explain the various effects from each type of event and to cover both the SPV and the TPV, including coupling , top up event and a bottoms up event , and the geographic target zones of where each event is most likely to impact. Some events favor the impacts targeting Eurasia, others Europe and some the Eastern US.

I know Bob and psu commented about HM recently struggling with the pattern , but I enjoyed reading Anthony's latest series of posts just now about the "potential " period of interest as it relates to the vortex, wave driving and maybe some pressure going forward. I suggest you check it out. Very interesting series of events in early Feb, but the timing could coincide better as HM mentions to the vacillation period that we have seen the past few months in a row between the 15 th and the 20th versus early in Feb.