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Very interesting snowfall distribution, ( NW to SE ) might be looking at an event that is a little out of the norm. The Euro will be telling. ,

Northern Delaware with a higher Kuchera than Philly or NYC, hey I am in !!!!!!!!

Active is the word it seems. The CFS has a nice snow event portrayed for the period near the 20th. The more active, I would assume the better the odds of scoring. Snow on snow would excite me.

Progression continues - keep in mind the lag effect as well, as Matt mentions. Wondering myself about how deep into Feb.we can keep the favorable pattern.

Unlike last year it appears we have a Nino response.

I would think this may increase the potential for cold and storms from late Jan through March. This more typical Nino-ish pattern and descending QBO might be enough to have a rather stormy and cold March as well, but some feel we need to have some sort of SSW to accomplish winter to late March.

I am wondering @Bob Chill if this event here is not one of a couple that helps to create the NAO block. Crazy, double the rate, of intensification going on here. A super Bomb !

Sometimes, as Bob states, the - NAO simply arrives unexpectedly. Although, the Euro Control did have a solution a few days back showing a stout Davis Straits block, maybe even earlier than that. Hopefully, it becomes a reality and raises the potential of a more significant storm, very cold and longer duration, and even a HA event as previously mentioned. MJO phase 8 seems to support a -NAO, but I believe we will not be into phase 8 until early Feb, ( depending on the model you choose ) So, assuming this NAO block is brought about by Atlantic cyclonic wave breaking and deep ULL passages. If so , does the block last longer than the transient blocks so far this season ? I mention that possibility because the progressing MJO to phase 8 could end support for a longer lasting NAO block.

I love the look, and totally agree with the potential . From Eric Webb , courtesy 33, Here is Eric's post: < As you'd expect for a central Pacific MJO event coupled w/ a NINO leaning base state, the LR GEFS has a very active southern stream and is wet in the southern US and along the eastern seaboard.

Putting down bets for some sort of HA event ........ after day 10.

Nice loop -

For those who worried Canada would be scoured of cold I just looked and knew it was going to be cold up there, but some of these numbers and the expanse of the arctic air is remarkable. So, there is your cold air source for down the road. https://www.timescolonist.com/strong-winds-snow-on-b-c-s-south-coast-snow-deep-freeze-in-the-north-1.24049987

And, as as Don stated yesterday, that higher amplified state in 7 increases the odds of snowfall in the East towards the end of Jan. bluewave, any thoughts on the developing NAO domain block we are seeing in the GFS and the Euro ? Do you believe it will indeed be transient in nature and then giving way to the more pronounced - EPO ? I know Isotherm thought if we were going to get any significant pv disruptions and a -NAO it would be later in the winter. Wondering the implications for Feb and even March and what happens too with the NAM state.

Bob, do you recall what happened in our area last Jan from the 21 st to the 30 th ? bluewave was mentioning just moments ago the pattern portrayed below is a very close match to last year during that time period.

Agree, I am hoping we do get some undercutting events and a period or two of an active STJ. Extreme cold not needed, as many here have stated the last several days. Rather have multiple storm chances, to score in at least a couple. Some MJO phases I believe further down the road may support a -NAO and I do favor later in the season for a Davis Straits block.

Ha ha ....... you underestimate your effect on the weenies. disclaimer ....."some weenies " On a side note, come to papa baby / and the CFS has done a good job as well with the MJO progression and trends.

In the OLD days a combo of the Eta and the Euro both forecasting snow in the short to medium range was a lock , maybe these days a combo of the GFS and the Euro is a confidence builder in the medium range. I mean eventually all this clear moisture has to turn white

I place little faith in this snowfall prediction, except to say, the more extensive the area and the further South it extends certainly raises my confidence level for later in the month and it has support from the Euro. So there

Not as much an issue in a moderate or a strong Nino, as you know, when you see a huge moisture laden storm systems approach from the SW. Then we snow at 12 degrees. We have had an active STJ this season so far, so that is a plus. As for the SE ridge, maybe it will not get displaced as much as some think. All I can say is that we have potential, it is never easy.

There is a pattern that makes this outcome more likely. When there is little blocking ( we lose confluence, 50/50, pv location, etc and also taking into account the trough axis location ) you can actually have repeated episodes of very cold and then transition to warmer/mild and wet. Happened many times last year in the winter and so far this year when storms have cut. Granted you might go the route of snow>ice to rain as well if there is CAD set-up and if the air mass is very cold. You might also get re-development in cases such as the primary weakening to our NW, and then a new center develops closer to the coast, but with out latitude the moisture usually ends before the real cold moves in and we can transition back to all snow. Areas to our NE benefit the most.

Don S update from a few minutes ago in the NYC forum. I like it ! <<< Quick pattern evolution thoughts... The base case as per historical data has been that the MJO would progress into Phases 7 and then 8. More of the guidance is showing a move into Phase 7 in the extended range. The GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS show the MJO moving into Phase 7 at an amplitude > 2.000. Passage of the MJO into and through Phase 7 and very high amplitudes during the second half of January have typically seen trough development in the East and a snowy February. These developments suggest that the potential for a pattern change away from the much above normal warmth (with short breaks) for the first half of January are increasing for the second half of the month. The closing week has the potential to see the onset of a sustained colder pattern. >>>

Another thing to keep in mind is whether we get a surprise transient NAO block as previously it was in a couple Euro Control runs.

Here is an IOD update. Keep in mind the influence continues from this record setting event and it is still a pattern driver to a degree, but is gradually losing its effect.

As others have mentioned here regarding the MJO, overall change to colder might have legs into Feb .

Most interested what happens after the cutter, near the 21 st to 24 th time period.