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Seems the last several Winters have featured many Coastal huggers and Inland runners

Great trends on keeping the AO negative during December. Love having that indice in our favor moving forward.

Not sure if posted, but the ECM Ensemble is ouch for many in the Southern areas. Not putting gas in the snow blower. Again know your climo and typical progressions to avoid disappointment. This is a psu, Mappy storm, unless it is wrong.

Interesting

Wow, to the tight Northern Delaware gradient. Dover to Greenville Delaware night and day! 0 to 12 inch over ridiculous short distance. Sweating it here.

Wow. Davis Straits blocking, and higher pressures near Idaho and the NW. Continue the opportunities.

No doubt we will be in the holiday spirit, and we need it ! . Maybe time to move the snow blower to the front of the garage, its been buried back there since 2016. And yes, that is a very long duration - AO / - NAO combo on the modeling.

Yep, active tracking continues, with two possible threats after Wednesday/Thursday event, with multiple shortwaves moving under the block. Been a very long time since we have tracked multiple threats in December. Stock up on coffee !

Wow ! Hello old friend I have missed you.

Also, a good sign for the rest of the winter. If the event happens, which is likely it appears, and is significant, it may portend the possibility of additional blocking episodes in January, February and March.

@CAPE in relation to the snow map above where are you ? In the the 3 inch color bar? I am straddling the 5 inch line, ( at the DC&D Canal ) which in the past at this range is a good signal for accumulating snow for my area. , Remember way back in 2003 I believe President Day 2 , I mixed, did you ? I am starting to get a bit excited, but knowing our area, tempering my enthusiasm. Looks like psu gets slammed.

GEFS and EPS worlds apart at this range. Have to see how long the block lingers.

Still learning and seeing how this cluster tool really performs. Also this post is more so geared across the pond. But looking at the forecast versus previous forecasts it appears the intense blocking forecasted near Greenland has shifted. I am interested in the EPS and GEFS runs this afternoon to see whether the always elusive Greenland blocking for fantasy land is starting to wash out and or shift more East.

@WxWatcher007 below normal air mass growing and on the advance in the latest 10 day mean.

Me too ! Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Looking forward to the 12/10 00z update. Poleward EP vectors! 10:34 PM · Dec 9, 2020

This look towards the end of December has changed for the better during the past 5 day period. Have not seen today's though.

@psuhoffman Liking the AAM tendencies and what they portend. I feel we can get a rather robust - NAO in the weeks ahead. Might coincide with an improving Pac and a growing cold air source to our NW.

Interesting to see how this evolves in the time period of interest near mid-month. Continued signs of HL blocking persist.

Finally seeing NW Canada turn below average temperature-wise. A good sign moving forward.

Potential in the NAO region and a negative NAM state will present opportunities certainly much better than last year at this time, we're heading in the opposite direction hopefully from where we were during the middle of December 2019.

Pretty sure last December 8 th this was going up, but I am old and can't totally recall.

Regarding the cryosphere, it is looking better with more NH snow cover, while Canada is getting colder. Hopefully, this has a role in January with direct cold air discharge when the pattern becomes more favorable .

Always an issue of timing as HM mentions, and yes coupling is indeed vital. One could speculate this year has a less hostile profile, possibly enabling an increased probability of coupling regarding the SSWE. Talk remains about the effect of last year's tropical fires upon the stratosphere. Seems the 15 th of this month, and the period just after, is key as to what may, or may not transpire.

There is hope. The look you posted puts pressure on the PV. May even improve the NAM state. And, we have all talked already about how the Atlantic may want to play this year in our favor, at least at times. There is growing evidence of a SSWE and even a possible reversal of zonal winds. Yes we want a weaker PV, not a beast, and yes we want HL blocking, but the eventual outcomes as it relates to our area, ( colder, snowier ) is really difficult to forecast. Do we experience a split, where does the PV re-locate to? We talked about this last year and the year before. Many times other areas of the NH benefit leaving us out of the severe cold and snowstorms. Granted, I will take my chances and see what develops in the weeks ahead.

The continuous, almost reliable knowledge, that high precip event are going to arrive shortly regardless of any five day period of dry weather has been going on for almost 24 months. You could make the case that in many of these high impact events, warmth was behind the reason why we achieved such a high precip in the first place. Active use to be a good indicator that eventually as we move deeper into winter the wet becomes white, but in this new base state this is yet another association that has lost value. That goes along with soil moisture as well . You can have a trough in the East and it can still rain in the heart of winter. Very frustrating too regarding recent storm tracks that favor areas North of us. I believe the SST pattern in the North Atlantic may have something to do with this.