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OMG, spit my sugar smacks out. At least your odds are 10 % , I am at zero.

The long range GFS matches the new CFS for Jan. 2021 , which according to the date today of the 22 nd should be entering its period of higher verification for the next 30 day period. I like ! We track ! @psuhoffman you think ridge bridge way out there possible.

Hopefully, I get a new coffee maker for Christmas along with an extensive variety of coffees to fuel the late nights of tracking in Jan.

Onto a new CAPE era, bring us luck please

I am with you regarding your thoughts and progressions. Seems colder air gets involved later, but we could score with typical cold as we near better climo. Strat is preconditioned and the trop is receptive to the incoming and ongoing SSWE. Also, as HM alluded to, the timing of this event is very good, nothing really on the table to interfere. In the past the high amp MJO and Pac features made the SSWE useless and entered chaos into seasonal forecasts. This time the brunt of the hoped for benefits seems to NA and the Eastern US in time. As several strat experts have mentioned nothing is a slam dunk in long range forecasting, but so far it looks good and the event is becoming more likely as well. The expansive event getting underway in Siberia will hopefully lead us to a more conducive period of +PNA. Meanwhile very cold air should begin to pool and grow in coverage in Central Canada. Get that Greenland blovk to retro as well and the bar is raised. Looking at the lastest GFS NH polar vortex ellipse time lapse forecast, it seems to place us in a interesting location as the SSWE progresses. Also of interest, is Anthony's post yesterday regarding the pv, strat, and the warming, etc. He mentioned the event itself may, depending how it evolves, could create it's own regime. I thought that was a very interesting comment.

This was mentioned yesterday, but 1076 mb is nuts ! I believe the NH record might be 1080 mb.

@WxUSAF An update on the EPS and zonal winds, as Allan mentions, the signal is only getting stronger.

He was a much better read in those days, more balanced IMHO and I learned a lot about tele-connections from him. Meanwhile check out the new AO forecast, yikes !!!

No. Started looking at this from back in the old days of dial up. Maybe Eastern weather and when Bastardi didnt hype the weather.

Well, its disappointing, and interesting only to the degree of final outcomes and what some had mentioned as a window for significant snowfall potential. I thought I saw where the EPS was pooling some very cold air in Central Canada late in its run. Can we tap that in January as the pattern progresses. At least in the short-term Canada is not cold by its standards.

This is interesting, next 15 days , most of the snowfall action is far to the West.

Walt Drag feels the 28 and 29 th cyclone bombs out near Cape Code, and I could assume further deepening , maybe that plays a role in the threat period near Jan. 2 to 5 th. Also of note the continuous North Atlantic wave breaking events.

When Allen posts I listen. @RaleighWx · 1h The 12z EPS shows the 10mb zonal wind at 65N is approaching a reverse to easterly late in the extended. This COULD harbor continued/enhanced blocking in the high latitudes in the troposphere as we head deeper into January. Image from http://stormivstawxmodels.com

Regime ensembles paint a pretty picture for January regarding a favorable - NAO Blocking signature and location. @SimonLeeWx · 1h In terms of the surface response to this weak vortex, it is too soon to say anything substantial - but note that the regime of the ensemble-mean is the negative NAO for the middle third of January, with Greenland blocking prevailing...

A player for sure ....maybe Jan 3 rd to the 14 th. Eric Webb @webberweather The 12z full res ECMWF is going w/ absolute min temps as low as -60F in southern Russia as a 1069 hPa sfc high descends into Mongolia. Oof 2:03 PM · Dec 21, 2020·Twitter Web App

To me the Euro took a step back. Its active but not cold enough. Hard to say what will transpire. Not worth the time to think it over, hopefully after the 25th its clearer. By that time wave breaking will be working it's way through the modeling and a more realistic outcome will present itself, whether it is more rain or snow.

Hopefully it does bode well for January. I am wondering whether any effects from say a relocation of the PV , displacement event, PV elongation, etc. may get us into a improved source region without depending on a -EPO. Total speculation here but there are some interesting animation regarding the NH PV and how it evolves over the next 15 days. Here are some still images of the forecasted GFS NH polar vortex ellipse. Also a great reference site : https://stratobserve.com/

The consistency and the depth portrayed regarding the - AO and the - NAO for the rest of this month and the first week of January are really stunning. Added to this is the ongoing warming up top and you have to really wonder what we may achieve at the lowest point of the - AO phase. This is pretty crazy looking.

Impressive London & Southeast @TheSnowDreamer *Huge* heat flux now being modelled by ECM goodnight vienna stratospheric polar vortex. 3:16 AM · Dec 21, 2020

Very true and yes folks require the digital fix. Looking at the next 10 days there appears to be two robust Atlantic wave breaking events. Perhaps the Atlantic blocking is underplayed currently despite the great looks by the models. Maybe the block will be even stronger than modeled. I expect medium range changes moving forward.

Just like last year, typical climo. Sigificance is when the mean is 6 or more inches. Then let the dogs out.

Certainly some of the looks that we saw back in the winter of 09 10 were incredible. I would never reference since xxxx.

Beyond the physics of the GFS to handle that mega block. I would not trust the Euro either just yet. Although I would think the EPS mean snowfall should be above climo, we shall see later .

Even with blocking it is fair to say that expectations should be tempered. But, wow, night and day versus last year at this time.

Is the blocking more West based ? Can you share an image?