frd

Again not sure SSTs in NW Atlantic are responsible. I recall Blue Wave in the New York Forum doing a post back in the late summer where he mentioned the SST pattern over the Northwest Atlantic was responsible for the Western Atlantic Ridge being displaced further north this year versus further south . Wondering if it is still a factor. Is it at Play here again here with the Greenland block.

Well, psu made a great post on that. You can search for it, but we have our friend the - AO to help us. At least we are in the game after the 25 th.

When looking at the PNA domain it is possible things improve there, a short window with a more pronounced +PNA will help the storm threat window(s). I have not checked today, but yesterday it appeared the PNA was headed more positive and the NAO more negative.

For once I can say that is starting to look better. Models are still catching on to the blocking scenario and eventual outcomes at the lower latitudes. Also, I have not seen this blocking signature for some time, evident by the temp anomalies to our far NE via the Canadian 10 day mean.

Highest heights are not in our favored area, looks like a East based Greenland block. We need that block to retro West into the Davis Straights. That could be one reason, but not the only one.

Also pondering data sparse regions with some of these Northern disturbances and last minute model swings. HM did mention if blocking develops robustly as the models indicate it could lead to interesting low latitude winter storm analogs.

OP at range, but it's almost the exact same location as the last of debacle. Really looking to achieve offshore ideal track, hopefully upstream blocking will shake things up. Also this regarding the 25th. Ethan Sacoransky @blizzardof96 · 8m Model guidance will continue to struggle with the #Christmas system. The storm energy is currently located over a data sparse region of the north pacific & is embedded within a broad/complex jet streak. The energy is incident on the west coast by Monday evening.

Impressive !

Looking good as we near the end of December and early January.

Today 1/3 of the CFS members go for dramatic weakening, ( zonal wind reversal ) but the look in general is a weakening PV over time in two phases. Early January may feature a deep- AO dive in my opinion and a significant storm threat.

A few more members yesterday jumped to the dramatic weakening

Clever insert there

Damn .... game on ! Simon Lee @SimonLeeWx Nothing quite like seeing NASA's GEOS forecast a 240-hour lower-stratospheric heat flux event that would rank among the biggest ever observed for any time of year in MERRA2 reanalysis. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html… 3:30 PM · Dec 18, 2020·Twitter Web App

Check out griteaters thread. Cool stuff going on near Greenland and hopefully retrograding blocking will manifest itself.

Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Replying to @griteater There are some interesting analogs that spring up in extended range with low latitude winter storms in them. What more can be said for the Northeast; it's on. 11:45 AM · Dec 18, 2020·

We are due for a surprise eventually. Of course hoping for the low lands.

Likewise, thanks for the .3

I continue to feel that any weakening of the Nina has a lag effect, based on the readings of several highly respected mets. I value DT's thoughts on the matter, we will have to see how it plays out. Having a weaker SPV and an improved NAM state can only help us, in a broad brush view. As psu stated we really need a - AO to get opportunities of snowfall, and then beyond that a -NAO in the correct area, and maybe rising or oscillating such as a HA event for the big one. A delicate balance as we all know. This year there seems to be a disconnect the SPV and the TPV. Also it appears, at least so far that we are in play when it comes to cold air delivery. As CAPE mentioned the one thing is the source region has been an issue. Canada has gotten colder, but not severely so, at least not yet. In Jan that source region concern becomes less of an issue. Another positive has been AAM. Moving forward, a jet extension and the eventual outcome hopefully of a +PNA and even a -EPO will set the stage for a colder and and snowier January. January looks to have decent potential to produce for our area. Also, look for any PV displacements and even minor SSWEs. Again, maybe our area seems favored for a PV orientation near Hudson Bay. Feb. to hard to take a jab at.

Ah, the old days of the Euro/ ETA combo ..... when they agreed Accu-Weather looked like a genius, versus the American models back in the 1980's and 1990's. Hopefully the old NAM was called the ETA, little early still.

YES !

When the mean gets to 6 to 8 inches 6 to 7 days prior then we can get excited. Last winter was a dismal showing with low odds and probabilities. Getting 1 or 2 inches prior to December 31 st seems reasonable. The re-load in January may provide the real deal to us in this forum.

This time lapse is amazing . I wish it was my deck, and my little creatures.

Really thinking that any SPV weakening / elongations / re-location, ie. to the Hudson Bay region for example, really benefits us in January versus other areas of the NH. Growing more likely something will happen, but to what degree is still uncertain.

A true blessing for the weather weenies, and for many others, after a year of difficulty and sadness for many.

Lets get a MECS PLEASE i would speculate that due to improved climo,combined with the strat/blocking evolution a rather potent winter storm in the East in early to mid January.