frd

Well why not. Shoulder month , fits the bill.

Dripping paint analogy from 04. I believe this is what the image shows. Not sure .

March might be nasty this year. If you are one whom believes the -NAM state lingers. @SimonLeeWx The most important aspect of a major SSW is the long, subseasonal persistence of the negative NAM/weakened vortex in the lower-stratosphere. This raises the likelihood of a neg tropospheric NAM & mid-latitude coldwaves across this timescale. For example, the 2004 SSW: 10:19 AM · Jan 7, 2021

Cold bias eliminated But I thought it was doing better.

Is it safe to assume that beyond this period , when the block relaxes the odds of a more significant all snow event increases for the northern Mid-Atlantic region?

@CAPE @psuhoffman Can you share your thoughts about this look in fantasy land. Is this a Mantiboa Mauler pattern ?

Didn't we have that last year or the year before? Good idea.

I believe there is a lot to be hopeful for despite the patience and wait that has been casted over the Eastern snow lovers. I just hope we here in the low lands get buried too. You are are in a great spot. Now the question really begs how long does the threat periods last. The stuff up above seems to indicate possible longer than many think. Hey while on the topic, looks like almost a split at lower levels and situated over Hudson Bay. Looking for cold, but also threats.

Latest 10hPa 60 N Notice the secondary descent

Secondary warming event seems possible, the recent upward swing in the AO may be short lived . Liking the possibilities later in the month as you mentioned for our areas. Hopefully, either an increased baroclinic zone sets up further South with any manner of threats, over running, West to East storms under the block with arctic air in place, and even a clipper like system.

Hmmm

Will the Miller B set up the third storm , for our area ? Thoughts ?

Noise is a good word. @antmasiello There is a reason I've been hesitant this year to call things well in advance. When all the polar heights are retracted to one side of the NH and baroclinicity is poor (relative speaking), it becomes like a sickly free-for-all of waves in slow/choppy flow. Noisy

35 day GEFS appears to indicate the vortex regains traction, some experts state any secondary warming may unfold. Also HM states the split was interrupted .

Accu Weather headline plus CWG may be incorrect to a degree, an official warming , yes, but a split not so sure. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/05/polar-vortex-split-cold-snow/ Capital Weather Gang The polar vortex is splitting in two, which may lead to weeks of wild winter weather A sudden stratospheric warming event has pushed the polar vortex off the North Pole, sending Arctic air on the move See here : I am suggesting that we may never really get a split. Stratobserve was showing a very nice split , distinct and such, but now the vortex remains in one piece , seems to be a displacement event, but hey I am no expert. You can see here. 240 hours 300 hours 384 hours

That is true, most events don't benefit us. However, it can weaken and perturb the vortex, a plus, but then the question becomes does it ruin or side track a pattern destined to be good ala 2018 possible, but sometimes they ( warmings ) do benefit the East. Already there is much hype on Accuu - Weather , CWG, private services. The official warming was Jan 5 th , so add 20 days = Jan 25 th to see the cold materialize as per HM.

Canadian 10 day temp mean looks meh...... I know Canada is cold by our standards, but if you are expecting those really cold temps to magically drop South that modeling shows, well we have a ways to go in my opinion, because the 10 day mean does not support the look of " really Cold invasions of the past into the Mid Atlantic". Could be wrong of course, but this look does not look great.

@psuhoffman Psu Interestig comments by Anthony here wondering what to make of it. If forcing shifts later in the month of January especially with the latest forecast that show cold over the Eastern United States do you care to elaborate on what your feelings are regarding the progression of forcing in the West Pac. @antmasiello Replying to @webberweather I've been thinking about preseason/years like 88-89 showing up. Then I see the pattern ahead, etc. & tropical forcing reorganizing to Maritimes for Feb. You have to wonder if we see a rapid flip to very cold in W-C US. This would be a lot easier if polar state was more 1980s like 8:44 AM · Jan 5, 2021·Twitter for Android

Ed was on this first, now Accu- weather and others going crazy. Time will tell. Ed O'Toole @chionomaniac So things have happened quicker than I expected. Was also expecting minimal westerly flush down but this is greater than expected. When this is complete I expect another trop blocking response. Keeping an eye on possible split to reinforce this.

That's going in the wrong direction. Patience is an understatement for some, even I am getting perturbed.

Jeez, everyone is getting on the bandwagon! GFS must be wrong with digital snow totals. https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/arctic-outbreaks-major-winter-storms-may-unfold-thanks-to-polar-vortex/877841

Who wants to bet on a colder solution? Starting to get a little excited. Delaware needs a state of emergency.

March will rock ! j/k

As you are aware if you look at some of the research from Wes and Donald Sutherland regarding a deep negative Arctic oscillation its really only a matter of time until we score. And maybe big.

Can anyone with weatherbell access verify the European Ensemble Arctic oscillation forecast moving forward, the CPC site has deep -AO, then one-third of the members take it to neutral, and two-thirds of the members show another dive down in the Arctic oscillation later