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Some indications that the spv and the tpv may start to couple later in the month. From Matt Hugo < Some evidence now as well for +ve uWind anoms to make the link between the strat and trop looking ahead further into Nov, especially between 70-90N. Note how the yellow and orange colours descend from 100hPa down to surface. Another potential sign that blocking is less likely... >

WPC is gradually increasing precip amounts in Days 6 and 7 as you mention.

@psuhoffman will be happy. Adds more ammunition to the very warm and potentially snow-less winter of 20-21

I did mention a couple days back that at the present time there is no direct link between the two ( SPV and the TPV ) and if anything the organizational structures are not ideal for linkage at this time. As I mentioned too, other factors may come into play in December and Jan. I do know that the WPAC warm pool is the warmest it has ever been , much different than 2013-14 and the current background state has never really existed with the significant Pac warmth focused in certain areas against the strengthening Nina . Very interesting to see how things play out.

As a follow up to above. However, keep in mind though other factors are at play too when you look to December and January weather outcomes in the East.

CFSv2 versus the GEFS strat forecats I have been keeping a record and noticing the verification between them, and it seems that the GEFS is schooling the CFSv2 in regards to strat forecast accuracy. This is actually not great news because I see a trend lately with the GEFS strengthening the PV as it slowly gets closer and closer to the ERA5 max. Another nail in the coffin in regards to achieving any significant or long lasting HL blocking.

Off the charts weather event coming up this weekend , especially for areas further NE under the 588 DM positive anomaly. Regardless of location, temps way above normal for a significant number of days. From bluewave, recently posted. < We could challenge the all-time November 500 MB positive height anomaly record this weekend. It looks like the record for the NYC area is 589 DM. The models all have values close to that level.

Here dropped only to 37 then rebounded. Have yet to reach 32 here. Two freeze warnings issued both busted too cold.

@CAPE any areas need more over seeding ? And that forecast is for Boston. Meanwhile, notice at the end of the loop really cold air is really reduced in coverage in vast areas compared to the recent cold air mass in the Northern States including the Northeast, and in Central and Eastern Canada as well.

Well enjoy the outdoors. Better to be outside then in. I will welcome any winter cold during the next 5 months. I can't even recall the last 6 I ch or greater snowfall here.

I hope your mower is still gassed up. I envision 3 more grass cuttings. Wondering if simply by chaos we re shuffle the playbook temporarily to a colder pattern in early December. Some things do look to change by mid November and rolling forward could lead to a colder outcome in the East. We all know there is a lot going against us, but hopefully the next 30 days provides more insight to the weather near the holidays and beyond.

As mentioned a couple days ago we may not be done after Eta as the EPS indicates more activity. Meanwhile the robust WAR becomes an even bigger player later this week, approaching 588 DM. , simply incredible ! On the speculation side, maybe an anomalous weather event later in November in the East.

You deserve some for sure! Sure feels like a December day ! Might need to find the winter hat, because I don't have a lot of hair on my head

Wind chill 29 here. Brrr ....but it feels refreshing !

After this cold blast we're looking like multiple weeks to take care of any outdoor yard issues

It was noted that the shoulder months of the winter might have the best potential due to the weaker state of the polar vortex

I did read from a couple of sources that at least for the time being the likelyhood of the trop and stat pv linking is low. Also some overall lack of structure. AO still progged to decline after November 6 th.

Hopefully the tropical connection is gone. That accounted for several huge events. The amount of rain has caused much frustration for farmers and allergy sufferers and those whom simply enjoy sunshine and outdoor activities.

Exactly, fast Pac flow has been setting records for past couple years in regards to super fast jet stream and breaking down + PNA attempts.

This is certainly a repeating process the last few years, and even going further back, as you mention. Wonder if we transition back to a colder pattern after November 20th and repeat the last couple Decembers which featured colder weather, but also an abrupt change after December 20th to much warmer right in time for the holidays. Possibly the next increase in NA snow cover coincidences with increased ridging out West and a improved MJO progression.

Wonder if we have not seen our last tropical rainfall connection. Something could down in November.

The core remains resilient.

If I recall correctly last November provided the old reliable head fake with a rather - AO. The real move up with the AO did not take place until December I believe.

I totally agree. I work in a health care setting and it is bad enough already with the backdrop of Covid and limitations on activities in the more at risk populations, but add on this lack of sunshine, with shorter days and the chill coming, it certainly is draining on one's mental health.

This is not a good sign, at least initially.