frd

It was nice last night near 7 PM. Had our new greyhound, Bronson, out for his evening walk. Sky cleared off as well. Nice little breeze. Hey, if you like pleasant the weather next Tuesday and Wednesday looks lovely. I think it warrants a beach trip with an offshore wind and surf zone in the mid 70's. Hey, ice cream man , I like a coconut fruit bar please. ( North Wildwood has a rooming ice cream man whom strolls the beach with various yummy frozen novelties. )

The Nina winter of 95-96, as you mentioned was very unusual. We had cold air and coinciding active systems, producing an abundance of snowfall. Not your so called typical Nina by any means. Currently this past decade, and even more so the last 5 years summer blocking has manifested and when the winter months evolve the previous blocking from the summer and Fall diminishes, and even disappears. The last couple winters had the AO and the NAO go weeks on end in the positive phase. Snow advance, overall NH snow cover, and November blocking that some had used to forecast winter blocking ahead never took hold. The various cause have been discussed here. Two years in a row we had record high NH snow cover only to suffer January reversals that were sudden and unrecoverable from. Simply though it appears to evolve around the Hadley cell, the basin wide Pacific warmth, especially in the far SW Pacific, the record setting fast Pac jet, and recently you have to contemplate the strange gyrations of the QBO. Things were never in sync to produce extended cold during the last two winters. I would think unless we achieve some intervals of moderate blocking in the HL and help from the extinct winter - NAO we face serious obstacles in achieving even climo snowfall during the 20-21 winter season.

Data...... . more data ..... somewhere among all these model runs there has to be a fantasy snowstorm

Totally agree. However, a colder than normal winter month will occur here eventually. Whether by volcanic eruption on a massive scale, or a simple serendipitous event.

Heavier rains here now along with just issued flood advisories , rain has for sure moved NE . Becoming intense downpours as well last 5 minutes . Flood Advisory National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1146 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 DEC003-MDC015-029-131845- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0147.200813T1546Z-200813T1845Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle DE-Kent MD-Cecil MD- 1146 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Flood Advisory for... New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northeastern Kent County in northeastern Maryland... Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... * Until 245 PM EDT. * At 1142 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain over portions of the area, resulting in rainfall rates of one to two inches per hours in spots. Minor flooding can be expected in those areas where the heaviest rain happens to fall.

Came across some posts ( research ), maybe BAMMWX, that alluded to a July and August -AO average correlates into a warm December in the East. Eh, whats new.

This is of interest from a weather perspective.

I would think only a matter of time until it gets your yard and seedlings.

Rain has started here as the rain area has moved in from the SW during the past 30 minutes. More mold and fungus guaranteed.

Do you think by day 10 we may start to see a couple days of NW flow, versus the continuous Easterly/NE and SE flow depicted by the models?

Are you worried about too much rain coming? Will it disturb or displace the seedlings?

Exactly, Winds either from the South, SE or the East for days on end. Like to see the EPS later.

Would not be surprised to see that set up you mention in September ( even early October ) at some point. I believe in the past we have had cold frontal passages and then the building High to out North and East a few days after providing a pathway for a runner up the coast. Of course the fine line between a curve out to sea , or a real threat to the SE and Mid Atlantic areas.

You see that persistent Easterly flow and East fetch on some of the modeling. Some wave models bring 8 foot waves into the lower NJ. and Delaware surf zone by the weekend. Strange summer so far. I am just hoping for some NW winds behind a legit early Fall cold front, might need to wait on that. Was at the beach yesterday , and it was a marvelous day with the wife and the kids. Not crowded, surf at about 72 , seagulls didn't eat my pizza .

What ? No way !!!! I don't believe it, unless they hacked Isotherm's formula.

Do you lime ? Or, do you do a soil test ?

Another day another record , another 1,000 year event. https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2020/08/07/friday-storm-delaware-isaias-delmarva-power-flooding-rain/3324504001/ The Delaware Environmental Observing System measured 1.03 inches of rain in just five minutes at its Greenville station near Winterthur, state climatologist Dan Leathers said. According to the NOAA Atlas-14, the document that the National Weather Service uses to examine these types of events, that amount of rain in five minutes would be expected less than once every 1,000 years, Leathers said. Leathers said he and his team were still looking at the storm in more detail Friday night. The storm dumped more than four inches of rain at that Greenville station in around 30 minutes, Leathers said, and the area near Hockessin Fire Co. saw more than three inches of rain. So, too, did the Claymont area. As of 1130 p.m., more than 11,000 Delmarva Power customers were without power. It all happened quickly. The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 5:38 p.m., when a storm with wind gusts of 60 mph and the potential for hail was over Kennett Square, Pa., just over the Pennsylvania state line.

Maue commented in this.

Totally agree. Between the near miss tornado and over 6.75 inches of rain this week, flooding is real . Oh and you might like this video from Bear, DE. regarding the F1 long track , and the recent tornado and severe storms.

Radar indicates that storm in extreme SE PA and Northern DE means business . Torrential rains here now. Streets already flooding .

Another tornado warning in Northern Delaware , Jeez ! Storms moving onto my location now.

Just pointing out two contributors that might be favorable. But honestly, the correlation is not strong and we are currently out of sync with things that use to work, or could be used in a analog set, or at the least, had exhibited some tendencies to be pro cold for our area versus warm. Challenges continue to mount for useful winter seasonal forecasts.

Speaking of Nina odds. A post by Don S yesterday below. If you are wondering today's SOI is + 22.40 Seems to me a good bet we get some sort of Nina developing by Fall. The one thing that interests me is the backdrop of the solar minimum. And, the eventual outcome of the QBO in Dec . and early winter. < Today, the SOI was +25.73, which was its highest figure since October 14, 2018. In all three August cases when the SOI rose to +25.00 or above and the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75C or below, winter saw a La Niña. The most recent such case was August 2010. >

From the NYC thread. Check out the drop in SSTs since the tropical storm. Will need several weeks to get them back up . Of note as well

Even the end of next week looks to be rather wet according to Mount Holly's long range outlook. I tend to think if this pattern continues maybe over seeding can commence earlier this year, rather than after Labor Day, as @CAPE mentioned . I keep reading that as the Country dries up drier weather may settle into the East on a extended basis . However, this change seems to continue to push out further and further into the future. From Mount Holly AFD : Looks like the late-week period may be interesting, as the front may stall near or in the area, with deterministic models showing multiple rounds of convection occurring in proximity to it. Certainly a heavy-rain threat from a pattern recognition perspective.