frd

I have seen neutral, Nino and Nina comparison snowfall scatter plots for December through February in the Northern Mid Atlantic which shows we tend to achieve the highest snowfall in a moderate to even skewed stronger Nino. Possibly, as you mentioned, in a Northern stream dominated Nina and dependent on where the cool anomalies are located in the Pacific the temp profile in our area versus a Nino may be colder. The image itself lends to confusion and has little value if you ask me. Just as all Ninos are not the same, the same can be said of Ninas. Of course, as mentioned here previously you really need the establishment of NAO and HL blocking for true winter block buster events in a Nina background state.

Upcoming time period might possibly be the best in recent memory to over seed cool season lawns in this area . Diminishing competition from weeds, lowering dew point with reduced disease risk, combined with ideal decreasing soil temps. Target for fescue and other cool season grass seeds are soil temps between 50 and 65 degrees F. , and your corresponding air temps between 60 and 75 degrees F.

ALL IN

I have mentioned this before, along with various posts by bluewave. Anthony has an entire series of posts on this. And without a doubt this trend continues. The focus, well the enhanced area of higher heights near the East Coast between May and October during the most recent 10 year period.

Nice work by HM and cool animation

A little more detail From MH AFD .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The band of showers associated with the frontal wave, which has lingered over central Delmarva and far southern NJ the last few hours, should push offshore shortly. The cold front which has only made slow southward progress (as these weaker fronts often do) overnight will accelerate southward this morning away from the area. High Pressure building in behind the front over the Great Lakes will foster a dry N-NE flow over the area with dewpoints steadily dropping N-S through the day. Can`t rule out a few showers over the far south this morning (closer to the convergence zone and the better moisture) but guidance has trended more aggressive in drying us out, so confined mentionable PoPs to southern NJ and southern Delmarva.

As the day progresses according to the AFD from Mount Holly . Your area first then me later .

The GloSea5 did well last year. However, to me that means little for this winter.

The morning Mount Holly AFD commented there was better agreement between the Euro and the GFS overnight, and that the front washes away as it nears us Sunday, and the threat of excessive rainfall on Sunday has diminished. Sunday may indeed be dry.

As many here already know, the QBO is currently positive and looks to continue to become more so in the months ahead. There is some research that points out a tendency for a more poleward based and oriented North Pacific Ridge during +QBO winters. HM mentioned that, along with a couple other mets as well. @griteater recently mentioned it too in a detailed and revealing post. I found it so interesting as to share it here. Nice job with this ! Here is the post below : . The QBO is utilized in various ways with respect to seasonal forecasting, but IMO, it's best use with winter forecasting is not so much with the AO/NAO, but rather, with the configuration of the North Pacific High/Ridge that is common during La Nina winters. A North Pacific ridge is almost certain to be present in the mean pattern during Cool ENSO / La Nina winters when the Jul-Oct averaged AAM is negative (which has been the case thus far for Jul-early Sep). Anthony Masiello's findings from 2012 showed that more poleward north pacific ridges were favored during +QBO winters, while north pacific ridges that were suppressed to the south were more favored during -QBO winters. A key element here is that the designation of the QBO for this purpose was in the lower stratosphere (roughly Nov-Feb averaged at 45mb) as opposed to the typical level used with QBO analysis which is at 30mb. While the QBO began to behave much more erratic than normal at the first part of 2020, it appears to have resumed with a more typical progression as the positive QBO has more firmly established itself in recent months in the middle stratosphere and descending into the lower stratosphere. For the upcoming winter, I would anticipate the QBO to average positive for Nov-Feb averaged at 45mb - most similar to the winter of 2010-2011 when compared to other cool ENSO winters. See QBO Charts: NASA QBO Chart Free Univ of Berlin QBO Chart Below is a list of what I have for the last 11 La Nina winters that followed El Nino, along with the Nov-Feb avg 45mb QBO, then the placement of the north pacific ridge averaged for Dec-Mar. La Nina Winter That Followed El Nino Winter / Jan-Feb avg QBO at 45mb / Placement of North Pacific Ridge avg for Dec-Mar 2010-2011 / Positive QBO / north/poleward north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the NW) 2007-2008 / Negative QBO / south/suppressed north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the SW) 2005-2006 / Negative QBO / south/suppressed north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the SW) 1998-1999 / Negative QBO / south/suppressed north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the SW) 1995-1996 / Positive QBO / north/poleward north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the NW) 1988-1989 / Positive QBO / north/poleward north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the NE) 1983-1984 / Neutral QBO / no clear distinction overall in the north pacific 1973-1974 / Positive QBO / north/poleward north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the NW) 1970-1971 / Negative QBO / north/poleward north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the NW) 1964-1965 / Positive QBO / north/poleward north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the NW) 1954-1955 / Negative QBO / south/suppressed north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the SW) Of the 11 winters, the only one that didn't follow the QBO/North Pacific Ridge placement theory was the winter of 1970-1971. Here are 500mb Height / U.S. Temperature composites of the Positive QBO winters from the list: And here are 500mb Height / U.S. Temperature composites of the Negative QBO winters from the list (I left off the 70-71 winter): Clearly, the Positive QBO composite with the more poleward north pacific ridge offers more potential for cold air intrusion into the lower 48 east of the Rockies compared with the Negative QBO composite. One other thing to look for is the Oct-Nov 500mb pattern over the NE Pacific / Alaska / NW Canada. Winters with a more poleward north pacific ridge tend to be absent of negative height anomalies in the Bering Sea, Alaska, and NW Canada during Oct-Nov....while, winters with a more southward displaced north pacific ridge tend to contain solid negative height anomalies in the eastern Gulf of Alaska extending up into portions of the Bering Sea, Alaska, and/or NW Canada. Bottom Line: I would expect the upcoming winter to exhibit a more poleward north pacific ridge in the mean pattern as long as: 1) the QBO progression continues in a more typical manner as seen in the past few months, and 2) the Oct-Nov averaged 500mb pattern doesn't contain negative height anomalies in the eastern Gulf of Alaska extending up into portions of the Bering Sea, Alaska, and/or NW Canada

Appears the modeled December to February NMME precip forecast closely resembles that of a typical Nina.

High dew points set to return later this week. I imagine a sustained cooler pattern may not manifest itself until later in the month, or beyond.

Might get a glimpse into the boreal winter pattern and outcomes during the end of Sept and early October according tho Ben.

I like to know that as well, and once determined, I would find it interesting to see what, if any , correlation there is to a later Fall and early winter NAO signal or tendency because of this potential event, with the disclaimer, there may be zero relationship.

As bluewave noted today, this is not your typical pattern coming up , based on previous Septembers. I would welcome with open arms any cooler weather in early to mid September.

In terms of days 5 to 7 from the WPC , nationwide this is the least rainfall I have seen in months. Maybe we dry out a bit after this Friday. A cooler air mass next weekend is also a growing possibility.

Incredible rainfall rates here. Maybe 3 inches or more per hour. Middletown and near by areas are getting pounded, this is the third storm in less than 24 hours to dump excessive rainfall. Monthly rainfall for August is mind blowing!

This is insane here, 2 Severe warnings, hail, wind gusts and incredible sheets of rain combined with vivid lightening .

Next Saturday looks interesting in regards to remnants of Laura and/ or an MCS passing near the region. Imagine following this event reinforced NW flow.

Wonder if September continues the theme of recent late summers with the expanded WAR or if we get a break this year. Silly CFS, but why buck the recent trends. Early September you think looks be be normal based on these indicies then maybe warmer after Sept 10th .

Interesting that we do have these intervals where we do go dry for 5 to 8 days and then the moisture returns with a vengeance. This has been repeating for a few months I believe. Maybe we will get into some tropical moisture sliding by to our South in time beyond day 7, or more likely the possibility of some significant convection with the arrival of the cooler air mass the end of next week.

Rather impressive heat dome predicted. And, very, very hot !

Nino - ish for a time.

Certainly feels that way. Holly Grail of winter I see currently: + PNA - NAO - AO Would be fitting to see it continue in the months ahead, then firmly reverse as we near December.

Fescue grass already looks better last two days with cooler temps .Just purchased and placed new blades on the mower for a cleaner cut and less chance of disease. Cutting grass vertically for a better cut. Plan to rent aerator and do over-seeding end of the month when days are even shorter, just hope no late August or early Sept heat waves. That includes deluges from any tropical system as well.