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Do you water your lawn or other areas? I tried last year watering the lawn and lost my ambition and suffered the consequences. This year I will let it go dormant and hope rains visit at least to keep the crown alive so in the Fall it may bounce back. I have 3/4 acres far too much to water. Even the front with 1/3 acre is too much to consistently water correctly. And yes, the rainfall forecasts have trended drier.

This morning was 57 here. What I wouldn't give for a morning like this in mid August.

I also thought about this as I mowed the lawn this glorious morning. I can tell the sun and temps are stressing the cooler fescue grass out rather quickly. Everything looks great but the last heatwave did in some on the front lawn. Now the focus is keeping crab grass away and weeds in general, focus on the flowers beds and the garden. Then plan for the eventual over seed in early Sept. Last October the front looked great. Good advice regarding seed from @C.A.P.E. The never ending cycle. Wonder what a neutral or even a Nina Sept QFP will look like around these parts, LOL probably a brown and dry look. Unless the tropics make multiple visits.

From Don S. tonight. I was not aware of the current SOI crash and the potential implications for later this month. < This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. >

Somewhat dated, but cool for the folks up North , just missed our Northern areas.

This has some interest......from Mount Holly AFD this morning All good things must come to an end, however. This comes to fruition as the surface low moves off to the north and east after absorbing the remnants of Cristobal. To our east, an mid and low level area of low pressure begins to deepen and looks to push westward towards the East Coast by Thursday. This will eventually interact with the approaching cold front Friday. There is remarkable agreement amongst the GFS and EC at this point with the retrograding low merging with the front over our region in the Friday timeframe. There is the potential for heavy rain with these features given the stalled pattern. Thankfully, a nice period of dry weather before this will help soils recover a bit.

Agreed, but last year, due in part due to the cold pool and other factors there were a couple very deep NAO episodes that brought a refreshing air mass that lasted about 24 to 36 hours, even though it was summer. I believe the one in August was very robust and broke a record for - SD . But yes, run of the mill - NAO in summer is a warmth signal. The flip is on as you mention. The cold pool although initially more Southern displaced may be breaking up and warming. An ominous sign for the hurricane season and long lasting heat and humidity possibly. Some buoys off the Mid Atlantic Coast have risen nicely the last 8 days. Look for more in the next week.

Will be interesting to see what happens as the cold pool warms and dissipates. The upcoming hurricane season looks to be active as the Atlantic warms and the the hang over effects of the Nino fad, and as Don mentioned even a Nina look possible later in the summer. Also, I read the IOD is setting records for positive values. Is that true? Have not researched that aspect lately.

Of note, related to a post a few days back form HM, and also mentioned this AM. by bluewave. The potential blocking pattern down the road. i.e. heat may be displaced further South, and also thoughts about eventual ridge runners in a NW flow.

Any relationship to the cold pool? I know HM commented on wave breaking ongoing as well.

Wonder if early to mid June develops a deeper - NAO than currently forecasted. . Wave breaking ongoing. There were several episodes last spring continuing into early to mid summer where similar dives occurred. By July and August to have any real cooling effects it has to be recording breaking. The SST cold pool is there again up North, and according to bluewave it is displaced further South than last spring.

Next week has some interest.

The bands moving up the Eastern Shore, including my area are dropping near .60 inches if rain, looks like rainfall rates of .90 per hour. Preparing for grass green up and re-invigoration.

Robust + PNA spike upcoming. Supports early June cool temps in the East. Meanwhile SSTs off the coast are rather chilly, stuck in the low to mid 50's for 2 months. Ouch !

Are you salivating about the potential of robust blocking in 20-21 winter? Delayed effect and timed also with the favorable QBO . Need an @Isotherm grain of salt to ponder on over the hot summer months.

Was that a record ? There are many this AM.

Yep, enjoy the cold , once departed might be very warm until mid October, wondering about the implications of a Nina, would be interesting in the backdrop of an eventual -NAO winter and delayed onset of the effects from the solar min. Like to see some big changes in the Pac leading up to winter. However, feels great out there this AM. Went to get bagels and coffee and the temp was 35 degrees. Amazing !!!

The strong seasonal and late season PV combined with the holly grail for cold, - AO, - NAO and a rising + PNA leads to this : Saturday looks downright blustery, with cold air filtering into the area with a strong northwest wind. Guidance is rather concerning for this time frame, with model soundings showing very deep mixing (likely above the 800-mb pressure level). Such mixing would promote advisory-level winds across the area, and likely some additional showers (at least in the northern CWA). For now, kept mention of showers to areas near/north of I-80 but would not be surprised to see some showers spread farther south. Some snow showers may continue in the Poconos, especially in the morning. Highs are expected to be around 20 degrees below seasonal averages, with lows on Saturday night likely reaching the freezing mark or lower in the Poconos and possibly the Lehigh Valley (with winds possibly keeping things from tanking to the freezing mark elsewhere). Sunday looks only somewhat better, with winds diminishing to a degree and temperatures a few degrees warmer. Nevertheless, it will likely be breezy again, with highs about 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages. A weak system looks to affect the region early next week, but models vary somewhat on timing and intensity. Have slight-chance to chance PoPs Sunday night through Monday night given the lingering uncertainty. With continued large-scale troughing across the area in a rather blocky upper-level pattern, expect temperatures to continue to be well below climatology.

Not sure the latest EPS but looks chilly.

A +PNA..... will wonders never cease.

Since the NAO block got going been rather active here HA hybrid events ....... wish it were winter, would be memorable. Bummer

Agreed. Already had many down limbs from previous event, saving grace some of my trees are still not fully leafed. This time the direction is South versus W and WNW during the last wind event.

I agree with you showme regarding the individual impact to many families. Yet I read this morning many professional economists expect GDP growth at 6 % the end of this year after a deep V shaped recession. I don't buy that. A lot of uncertainty about the resurgence of COVID 19 in the Fall. There are many unknowns in my opinion. Not to mention other economists are predicting near depression like GDP numbers into 2021.

Clearing here currently with the early morning storms moving off the Southern NJ coastline. Wind threat appears impressive, even after the any squall line later this afternoon, and the expiration of the wind advisory , gusty winds will continue until later Saturday, combined with temps in the 30's over night. HM chimes in.