frd

The GloSea5 did well last year. However, to me that means little for this winter.

The morning Mount Holly AFD commented there was better agreement between the Euro and the GFS overnight, and that the front washes away as it nears us Sunday, and the threat of excessive rainfall on Sunday has diminished. Sunday may indeed be dry.

As many here already know, the QBO is currently positive and looks to continue to become more so in the months ahead. There is some research that points out a tendency for a more poleward based and oriented North Pacific Ridge during +QBO winters. HM mentioned that, along with a couple other mets as well. @griteater recently mentioned it too in a detailed and revealing post. I found it so interesting as to share it here. Nice job with this ! Here is the post below : . The QBO is utilized in various ways with respect to seasonal forecasting, but IMO, it's best use with winter forecasting is not so much with the AO/NAO, but rather, with the configuration of the North Pacific High/Ridge that is common during La Nina winters. A North Pacific ridge is almost certain to be present in the mean pattern during Cool ENSO / La Nina winters when the Jul-Oct averaged AAM is negative (which has been the case thus far for Jul-early Sep). Anthony Masiello's findings from 2012 showed that more poleward north pacific ridges were favored during +QBO winters, while north pacific ridges that were suppressed to the south were more favored during -QBO winters. A key element here is that the designation of the QBO for this purpose was in the lower stratosphere (roughly Nov-Feb averaged at 45mb) as opposed to the typical level used with QBO analysis which is at 30mb. While the QBO began to behave much more erratic than normal at the first part of 2020, it appears to have resumed with a more typical progression as the positive QBO has more firmly established itself in recent months in the middle stratosphere and descending into the lower stratosphere. For the upcoming winter, I would anticipate the QBO to average positive for Nov-Feb averaged at 45mb - most similar to the winter of 2010-2011 when compared to other cool ENSO winters. See QBO Charts: NASA QBO Chart Free Univ of Berlin QBO Chart Below is a list of what I have for the last 11 La Nina winters that followed El Nino, along with the Nov-Feb avg 45mb QBO, then the placement of the north pacific ridge averaged for Dec-Mar. La Nina Winter That Followed El Nino Winter / Jan-Feb avg QBO at 45mb / Placement of North Pacific Ridge avg for Dec-Mar 2010-2011 / Positive QBO / north/poleward north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the NW) 2007-2008 / Negative QBO / south/suppressed north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the SW) 2005-2006 / Negative QBO / south/suppressed north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the SW) 1998-1999 / Negative QBO / south/suppressed north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the SW) 1995-1996 / Positive QBO / north/poleward north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the NW) 1988-1989 / Positive QBO / north/poleward north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the NE) 1983-1984 / Neutral QBO / no clear distinction overall in the north pacific 1973-1974 / Positive QBO / north/poleward north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the NW) 1970-1971 / Negative QBO / north/poleward north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the NW) 1964-1965 / Positive QBO / north/poleward north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the NW) 1954-1955 / Negative QBO / south/suppressed north pacific ridge (specifically, displaced to the SW) Of the 11 winters, the only one that didn't follow the QBO/North Pacific Ridge placement theory was the winter of 1970-1971. Here are 500mb Height / U.S. Temperature composites of the Positive QBO winters from the list: And here are 500mb Height / U.S. Temperature composites of the Negative QBO winters from the list (I left off the 70-71 winter): Clearly, the Positive QBO composite with the more poleward north pacific ridge offers more potential for cold air intrusion into the lower 48 east of the Rockies compared with the Negative QBO composite. One other thing to look for is the Oct-Nov 500mb pattern over the NE Pacific / Alaska / NW Canada. Winters with a more poleward north pacific ridge tend to be absent of negative height anomalies in the Bering Sea, Alaska, and NW Canada during Oct-Nov....while, winters with a more southward displaced north pacific ridge tend to contain solid negative height anomalies in the eastern Gulf of Alaska extending up into portions of the Bering Sea, Alaska, and/or NW Canada. Bottom Line: I would expect the upcoming winter to exhibit a more poleward north pacific ridge in the mean pattern as long as: 1) the QBO progression continues in a more typical manner as seen in the past few months, and 2) the Oct-Nov averaged 500mb pattern doesn't contain negative height anomalies in the eastern Gulf of Alaska extending up into portions of the Bering Sea, Alaska, and/or NW Canada

Appears the modeled December to February NMME precip forecast closely resembles that of a typical Nina.

High dew points set to return later this week. I imagine a sustained cooler pattern may not manifest itself until later in the month, or beyond.

Might get a glimpse into the boreal winter pattern and outcomes during the end of Sept and early October according tho Ben.

I like to know that as well, and once determined, I would find it interesting to see what, if any , correlation there is to a later Fall and early winter NAO signal or tendency because of this potential event, with the disclaimer, there may be zero relationship.

As bluewave noted today, this is not your typical pattern coming up , based on previous Septembers. I would welcome with open arms any cooler weather in early to mid September.

In terms of days 5 to 7 from the WPC , nationwide this is the least rainfall I have seen in months. Maybe we dry out a bit after this Friday. A cooler air mass next weekend is also a growing possibility.

Incredible rainfall rates here. Maybe 3 inches or more per hour. Middletown and near by areas are getting pounded, this is the third storm in less than 24 hours to dump excessive rainfall. Monthly rainfall for August is mind blowing!

This is insane here, 2 Severe warnings, hail, wind gusts and incredible sheets of rain combined with vivid lightening .

Next Saturday looks interesting in regards to remnants of Laura and/ or an MCS passing near the region. Imagine following this event reinforced NW flow.

Wonder if September continues the theme of recent late summers with the expanded WAR or if we get a break this year. Silly CFS, but why buck the recent trends. Early September you think looks be be normal based on these indicies then maybe warmer after Sept 10th .

Interesting that we do have these intervals where we do go dry for 5 to 8 days and then the moisture returns with a vengeance. This has been repeating for a few months I believe. Maybe we will get into some tropical moisture sliding by to our South in time beyond day 7, or more likely the possibility of some significant convection with the arrival of the cooler air mass the end of next week.

Rather impressive heat dome predicted. And, very, very hot !

Nino - ish for a time.

Certainly feels that way. Holly Grail of winter I see currently: + PNA - NAO - AO Would be fitting to see it continue in the months ahead, then firmly reverse as we near December.

Fescue grass already looks better last two days with cooler temps .Just purchased and placed new blades on the mower for a cleaner cut and less chance of disease. Cutting grass vertically for a better cut. Plan to rent aerator and do over-seeding end of the month when days are even shorter, just hope no late August or early Sept heat waves. That includes deluges from any tropical system as well.

It was nice last night near 7 PM. Had our new greyhound, Bronson, out for his evening walk. Sky cleared off as well. Nice little breeze. Hey, if you like pleasant the weather next Tuesday and Wednesday looks lovely. I think it warrants a beach trip with an offshore wind and surf zone in the mid 70's. Hey, ice cream man , I like a coconut fruit bar please. ( North Wildwood has a rooming ice cream man whom strolls the beach with various yummy frozen novelties. )

The Nina winter of 95-96, as you mentioned was very unusual. We had cold air and coinciding active systems, producing an abundance of snowfall. Not your so called typical Nina by any means. Currently this past decade, and even more so the last 5 years summer blocking has manifested and when the winter months evolve the previous blocking from the summer and Fall diminishes, and even disappears. The last couple winters had the AO and the NAO go weeks on end in the positive phase. Snow advance, overall NH snow cover, and November blocking that some had used to forecast winter blocking ahead never took hold. The various cause have been discussed here. Two years in a row we had record high NH snow cover only to suffer January reversals that were sudden and unrecoverable from. Simply though it appears to evolve around the Hadley cell, the basin wide Pacific warmth, especially in the far SW Pacific, the record setting fast Pac jet, and recently you have to contemplate the strange gyrations of the QBO. Things were never in sync to produce extended cold during the last two winters. I would think unless we achieve some intervals of moderate blocking in the HL and help from the extinct winter - NAO we face serious obstacles in achieving even climo snowfall during the 20-21 winter season.

Data...... . more data ..... somewhere among all these model runs there has to be a fantasy snowstorm

Totally agree. However, a colder than normal winter month will occur here eventually. Whether by volcanic eruption on a massive scale, or a simple serendipitous event.

Heavier rains here now along with just issued flood advisories , rain has for sure moved NE . Becoming intense downpours as well last 5 minutes . Flood Advisory National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1146 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 DEC003-MDC015-029-131845- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0147.200813T1546Z-200813T1845Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle DE-Kent MD-Cecil MD- 1146 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Flood Advisory for... New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northeastern Kent County in northeastern Maryland... Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... * Until 245 PM EDT. * At 1142 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain over portions of the area, resulting in rainfall rates of one to two inches per hours in spots. Minor flooding can be expected in those areas where the heaviest rain happens to fall.

Came across some posts ( research ), maybe BAMMWX, that alluded to a July and August -AO average correlates into a warm December in the East. Eh, whats new.

This is of interest from a weather perspective.