frd

Underperformed here as well with , cough cough ....1. 75 inches. Bring on the sun and lower dews. My area remains a hot spot for enhanced rainfall. Hope that becomes enhanced snowfall in a few months.

The GEFS and CFS both keep the pv along the normal growth trajectory during the next 35 to 45 days . Just saying, because it means very little, but interesting to follow along and see how this turns out a month from now.

Same old story, as mentioned a bit ago that area of heavy rain meant business and has caused a FA NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0180.200929T1926Z-200929T2330Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle DE-Delaware PA- 326 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flood Advisory for... Northern New Castle County in northern Delaware... Southwestern Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 326 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Some locations that may experience flooding include... Wilmington, Newark, Chester, Pennsville, Carneys Point, Elsmere, New Castle, Penns Grove, Delaware City, Newport, Arden, and Wilmington Manor. This includes the following highways... Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 1. Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 2 and 23

Good comment, thank you. I over seeded an existing lawn. Height of grass should prevent wash away. I just worry, that's all. I also core plugged it too with a machine. From a weather perspective looking forward to the cool down with nice morning dew, and then a gradually warm up as we near mid month.

Pouring here. Not welcomed at all. Figures, after I seeded. This is a separate area of rainfall from that main area to our West. Current downpour over 10 minutes and would do the summer thunderstorms justice. Rain gauge at 1.10 ans radar estimate here

We progress more into Nina land out there.

Rational possibility. Also, on a related note, the average temps continue to drop at a good clip, as does the length of daylight. DST begins in about a month on November 1 st.

Latest CanSIPS To be expected in a Nina , whether it is correct not sure.

Warming would be acceptable without the crazy dews please. As you mentioned, warming seems likely as the EPS and the weeklies like the idea of moderation after the 10th, or so. Might be able to do one last beach trip. Granted surf zones temps have lost that mid summer feel, but will still give it a go if we can maintain above 65 degrees.

Hmm, maybe late season blocking combined with early season blocking. And, the positioning of the WAR further North leading to all that heat up in New England. ( East/ESE flow below ) Not sure honestly the reason(s), but very interesting stat. Some climate stations in certain locations in the US are totally opposite from this time last year, whether that is a clue for the future remains to be seen.

I share your thoughts. The last 3 winters did not show the real pattern until after December 20th. Actually last 3 years there has been a huge rise in temps after December 20th. Along with that the last 2 winters had record or near record high NH / NA snow cover early on, only to have that North America snow cover rapidly decline by mid Jan. of both winters to very minimal levels. ( Sorry Judah ...ah the poor SAI and total snow cover = no value ) So, as you mentioned, in this new day and age do not be fooled by anything that appears to look favorable until you measure a foot of snow outside your door. Hey, I am still open to all options, but I will keep the bar low and exceptions in check.

Seems we have been getting these Fall - NAO episodes recently, and then they vanish during the winter months.

I am sure we go dry for the winter. But, rather active again, Friday now looking not so hot, and another system early next week. From Mt Holly AFD Thursday night/Friday: Guidance has come into better agreement that a weak coastal low will form Thursday night and pass sufficiently close to our area to warrant appreciable precipitation chances. Consequently raised PoPs a fair amount this package (they may need to be raised further in subsequent packages), but given that the low will be weak and fast-moving expect rainfall totals will be limited to a few tenths at most. By Friday afternoon cooler and drier air will filter in behind the low and expect rainfall to generally come to a quick end. Highs will likely only top out in the low to mid 60s in most locations. Saturday/Sunday: Dry and seasonably cool conditions will prevail through the weekend with daytime highs generally in the mid 60s and overnight lows in the low-mid 40s. Some frost will be possible in the colder spots of eastern PA Saturday but more- so Sunday morning as the radiational cooling setup looks fairly good (at least 5 days out) Monday: Another shortwave and associated area of low pressure may impact the area on Monday but details are fuzzy at this point, with the EC/CMC depicting a stronger system (and closer to the coast) relative to the GFS. Medium-range Chc. PoPs seem appropriate at the moment.

Here ya go

Me as well. Seems the WPC shifted ever so slightly the heaviest Rains to our East. By a hair, but better than deep red shades.

Did you notice the GFS it is trending more progressive as well. Meanwhile, the dews here are insane. My location is in the upper 60's, but other locations much higher. Very gross for almost October 1 st. Looking at the satellite time lapse just now and seeing the back edge of the cloud deck rapidly advancing to the NE. Should go partly to mostly sunny later . Humidity 93% Wind Speed S 8 mph Barometer 29.91 in (1012.6 mb) Dewpoint 66°F (19°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Last update 28 Sep 7:51 am EDT

Another interesting reflection from grit regarding AO and the NAO both being negative ( .40 or lower ) during the period Dec to March since 1990.

From 430 AM to 630 AM. it really came down here. Really surprised by over .60 inch of rain. Seems as the norm, dryness does not last long, at least in this area. Glad to hear you are going to retire the sprinkler. Farewell my good friend.

Wasn't that the storm that Eastern areas went over to inches of sleet ? I had 12 to 14 inches of snow, then all sleet for hours and hours. Could have been 20 inches here had it not went over.

Simon just added this to his cool reference site. GEFS: 35-day 10 hPa 60°N The new GEFSv12 now features a 35-day run every day at 00Z. Shown here is the output from the previous day’s run, due to the time taken for the data to appear on NOMADS. Note that, because of the length of the forecast, systematic model biases are more likely to impact the output. These are not accounted for here.

Pac jet will not be denied.

Went to the beach recently and observed huge amounts of sand have been lost due to recent huge waves battering the surf zone from offshore hurricanes and the effect of the moon phase. Also, opposite of many past Septembers, the surf zone temps have really dropped off quickly.

Latest JMA evolves us from the chill at the end of September and early October to warmer pattern, pretty much everywhere, by Weeks 3 and 4. According to Ben, recent Ninas normally do not produce cold Octobers in the East.

WPC goes with higher QPF in latest update. ..Weather/Hazard Highlights... Ample energy seems set to dig into the potent upper trough/low position will push cold fronts across the central and eastern U.S. through the period and provide focus for rain. Amplification trends have slowed the eastward translation of a main lead front and reinforcement as contingent on uncertain stream separation. A significant WPC frontal continuity adjustment was applied to address timing. Modest to locally heavy rainfall totals may focus from the Appalachians eastward for the first part of the workweek, albeit with trough axis differences affecting wave development and moisture inflow potential.

Wondering about the Euro verification scores last few days. Heard East of the Mississippi it is not doing that hot recently during the past 30 to 45 days. Maybe the GFS goes for the win. I re seeded a little time ago. I don't need flash flooding again.