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Admiring radar over your area. Incredible !!! Missed the bulk here but precip totals South of me are 2 inches and over. Put those sprinklers into storage . The rare AM electrical storms are lots of fun !

I know I read a couple posts by HM on the QBO behavior during the past 6 months, and even recall some insights as well from Dr Amy Butler. Strange year so far for the QBO for sure. Good luck to those whom want to put out a winter forecast for 20/21. I would say the odds of discovering the correct winter drivers at about 33 %. Those who love the warm train might go climo ( 1990 - 2019 ) + 2 degrees. Those cold and snow weenies better hope for a 95-96 repeat. Sure we can get a cold snow event but difficult to see cold lock in with the same issues re-appearing such as the enhanced fast Pac jet and difficulties in achieving properly timed HL blocking ( or any blocking for that matter) along with the elusive -NAO. Speaking of stratospheric oddities.

@psuhoffman Good points on the post above. Analogs post 2010 have become useless to a degree. And, since 2015 you can probably even reinforce that notion with the Super Nino ( residual ocean warming , etc ) and add to that the recent ocean heat waves taking place. A somewhat newer phenomenon. I see even the great Don Sutherland has added something fitting and new to his weather summaries and look ahead monthly forecasts/stats. PSU , see here ( bolded ) from Don's recent post. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. He is incorporating the new climate warming into his summary, very interesting. For me personally , I see no end to the issues in the Pac this winter that have haunted us the past 3 winters. So many elements in addition to the Pac are negatives for a cold and snowy winter in our part of the world.

After replacing the mulch I had to do it again this morning. That line had a few heavier cells go across the upper Chesapeake Bay/Eastern Shore which dropped .30 inches of rain here last night . Total with TS was 5.75. Ground soil should be good for a while. Refreshing this morning at 67 degrees when I woke up.

And don't forget, that was back in the day when a Nino did what a Nino was suppose to do. In this day and age with global warming the outcomes expected are no longer so simple. Since 2010 there have been noted changes in various mechanisms that would typically deliver cold and snow to the East with a moderate to almost strong El Nino. The use of analogs prior to 2010, to me, prove little value. A blended approach to forecasting the Winter IMHO might be the best way to go. Of course they also need to be tweaked and modified for GW.

HM spoke about this potential yesterday.

True. Hard to combat the high sun angle. With decreasing sun angle getting under way and longer nights coming up the reseeding shall begin. Black Beauty is pretty good. On a weather related note bluewave posted something very interesting a week back that the dews/humidity levels are rising since the last Super Nino. I imagine that may play into the higher overnight minimums in the summer, and the growing issue of mildew, plant fungus , etc. So far this has been the case from back in May :

Wonder if relative to averages we will have seen the worse of the heat after early next week. Have to ponder the possibilities for later August and September. The driest part of the year waits ahead for us, but on the other hand you have to respect the the odds of tropical moisture coming our way, whether directly or indirectly.

Yep, although for any surfers looks like some good wave action, and for the novice surfers I am eyeing the middle of next week for a period of offshore winds and a later afternoon incoming high tide, along with diminishing risks for rip tides . Ocean very warm right now, look for eh maybe some up-welling, but then a another spike up towards the mid to upper 70's with the next heat wave late next week. Many stations at 72 to 74 presently.

Never easy at our latitude and inland location. I noted a lack of forecasts by many here on this system, too much uncertainty. . .25 inches is not going to cut it on the Euro . I am not so sure about the Mount Holly's rainfall forecast. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Based on a blend of national guidance, the previous forecast, and a blend of the models except the GFS, we`re currently thinking that we`ll see an average of 2 to 3 inches across DelMarVa and eastern Jersey with between 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over eastern PA. The GFS is the most west in its deterministic low pressure center however the GEFS mean is well east of that deterministic run. So I hedged towards an inland system but further east of the GFS and quite a bit slower as well. Either way the heavy rains should pass out of the region late Friday evening as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. But, here is the WPC Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 12 2020 - 12Z Thu Jul 16 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Significant shorter range model differences remain with an Eastern Seaboard coastal low whose potential development is being monitored by NHC. Recent GFS and to a lesser extent GEFS runs have been the most progressive with this low into the Northeast this weekend. Recent UKMET runs have been the most developed. While plausible, the WPC product suite was primarily derived instead from a blend of the 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean that offers good continuity for this coastal low and also seems to provide a good forecast starting point and continuity for the rest of the lower 48 days 3-7.

Do you feel the greatest impact and flood threat is to our far NE over Long Island and New England? Looks like dangerous rip tides, high surf, high tidal flooding and poor beach weather to say the least on the NJ and Delaware beaches Friday to Saturday nigh, . Also of note, some very warm SSTs East of VA .

Since BAMM released this two days ago recent data supports extreme heat arriving in our area at the end of next week, some of the height forecasts are portraying a run to the century mark.

Finally last night got hit with a rather prolonged heavy rain event along with a a STW for my area. Seems the outflow boundaries from the storm complex in Se PA spawned new storms to my NW and then these storms , or rather a large complex, dropped Southward. Very impressive rain and wind event. Even post rainfall the winds were very gusty. Rain gauge at home was at 1.75 inches. At least the grass crowns are saved for the next round of heat and will be nice not to have to water for a while.

I like the idea of 80 degree surf zone temps by late July off Southern NJ and Delaware beaches. Overall a hot month looking at some of the data. Set the path for a cat 3 later in the season.

Hey CAPE , if you can share your thoughts on a good product I really appreciate it . Thinking about applying something like to my front lawn. FYI ., my front lawn has really turned brown, missed all the rain you have received. Lower half has gone dormant. Going to be a tough summer rain wise I think.

Another + PNA

Heat at long range so far has been muted in the short term, while areas far to the North bust through 90. SE Canada for example. Some associate this pattern with the cold pool in the Atlantic , looks different than other years recently. As the Atlantic SSTs change I would imagine the sensible weather around here will change also. I know soil moisture is very low. Ground very hard around the property, as some grasses ( fescue ) going dormant already.

I read you can also steak them just like tomato plants, along with pruning . FYI https://www.theartofdoingstuff.com/youve-been-growing-your-zucchini-all-wrong/

Wonder if the GFS had a fall out with verification scores. Pretty dry overall next 10 days .

If the Euro seasonal for July is correct wonder if during the transition this this pattern, as well as during oscillations, we share in more frequent moisture, and frontal passages during the this coming July.

Incredible amounts for sure, the WPC seems to concur to a degree, and trend the last 6 days has been to bring some heavier rains a bit further North and East. Middle of country really drying out, and wondering whether that heat comes up and over later in the period.

Is there a correlation that when you have a very quiet severe weather season nationwide the ensuing summer is more normal temperature wise? Total speculation, but wondering if there is anything useful to gain from this season so far in regards to predicting temperature trends during the summer . And that goes with saying maybe the real summer pattern has not even shown up yet in the East. But, some consensus indicates the summer will feature the highest heights in the West with more frequent troughs in the East. Always enjoy your severe weather thoughts.

Also wondering the effects of soil moisture and feedback for later in the season. Those areas with the highest QFP at times can be the breeding grounds for very hot weather for our areas, however, maybe this summer the heat makes it approach and greatest impact from going up and over and arriving on NW flow events. Any thoughts ? Of course you also have to look at the long lasting warm SSTs in the Western Atlantic, that seem to want to extend summer into mid October, such as in recent years. On a related Atlantic SST note, wondering when the flip happens closer to the coast as the Atlantic is warming in general. The surf zone is warming but has been slow to respond, maybe the long East fetch brings the warmer waters closer the next 8 days.

@bluewave Any comment on this occurrence regarding the QBO? A great read throughout and thought provoking. A rather complex event and a evolving one as well. Seems the implications "could" be wide ranging for the summer into the winter .

Do you think there is a risk of ridge runners and severe weather moving NW to SE in such a pattern ? Looks interesting at this time frame, even though it is way out there.