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This has been ongoing the last several Fall seasons. I believe you posted something about the WAR and the Western periphery is where you will find many late record high temps, especially in Virginia down to Florida. The warm SSTs certainly are a factor along the immediate coastal plain and even further inland.

Models have been underestimating the WAR at times.

Weaker vortex early on might would support this outcome.

Taking advantage of the -NAO and - AO, along with other factors, this forecast from the GEFS makes sense with a cooler East and warmer West, at leasr for a couple weeks. But, notice how the deepest cold ( and highest HDD ) remains to our West during the next couple weeks. Looking at recent Octobers there seems to be a connection with the warmer Western Atlantic SSTs providing warmth near the coastal plain deeper into October. see here: courtesy Kris Karnauskas @OceansClimateCU Later into the month, the AO and NAO may start to trend positive. Meanwhile, ,according to the CFSv2 and the GEFS models ( bias correction not applied ) the PV looks to remain near seasonal norms moving ever so slightly up along the path of the ERA5 Mean.

For those interested in the prediction value of the GloSea5 model and the seasonal winter NAO phase, great post here by Grit. < The Met Office prides itself on its predictions of the NAO with its seasonal model. I looked at the NAO prediction from prior October seasonal model output back to Oct 2009 (this is the oldest date in the archive on the seasonal model site - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean). In looking at the charts, I would say that in 9 of the 11 years, the October prediction of the NAO on the model was a good one. The 2 misses were in Oct 2013 and 2015. Here was the Oct seasonal output from 2010 and 2011 - both quite good with the NAO prediction (-NAO in 2010-2011 / +NAO in 2011-2012), with both of those being La Nina winters. Finally, here is a chart from the Met Office showing hindcasts for their prediction of the NAO with the GloSea5 seasonal model for the winters of 1993 to 2012. The results are pretty good. Note: this is the NAO prediction from the Nov1 release each year - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059637 >

More battering surf for the South Jersey Shore . .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 7am update...VAD wind profiles and surface obs across the region are indicating the low level jet is stronger than initially forecasted and thus I`ve increased the intensity of the winds and wind gusts across the region. This has lead to an upgrade from SCA to a Gale Warning for portions of the coastal waters as the low level jet should continue to increase in intensity over the next couple of hours. Widespread rain continues to fall over the region this morning and will continue through much of the day today. A strong easterly low level jet is pushing into the region which will continue to produce modest rainfall over the next couple of hours. Current accumulation totals are running around 1 to 1.5" across DelMarVa and southern NJ. Based on hires guidance I anticipate we`ll continue to see some 0.1-0.2" an hour rain rates over the next 3-6 hours hours across DelMarVa and southeastern NJ. Further north and west the impacts of high pressure seem to be winning out as rainfall totals are anticipated to be slightly lower than initial forecasted the past couple of days.

Seems as in past Octobers the warmer than average Western Alantic waters have induced a later freeze along the Eastern zones and coastal plain. Might even be responsible for stalling of cold fronts. Center of the country gets a taste of winter next weekend.

Without question our areas have been the target zone since back in June. However, we have been getting our share of Fall weather. Next weekend is a real prime Fall weekend. Better than a year ago.

Seems Delta may trigger chain of events leading to polar blocking and arctic intrusion.

interesting zonal wind forecast https://mobile.twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1314440730534989824

Noticed the shorter days, and less solar heating, means it takes much longer to dry things out. Found out when looking at grass seedlings and checking soil moisture. It was still rather wet ad moist.

I am starting to like the idea of a mini front loaded winter , however, in our case/area that may simply mean normal temps with a minor event. Meanwhile trends with the PV at this time maintain a normal seasonal progression, along the line of the ERA5 mean. Along with a supported - AO. Even though recent Octobers have exhibited a - AO more so than in the heart of winter. Already spoken here is the possibility of a more so - NAO early in season . Although maybe more East based. And very interesting is this post, and the possible variations of the Nina and the effect on the NH

Looking for a last season beach trip, surf zone temps still in upper 60 s

Sounds DT- ish

Saw that this morning when the WPC made come changes that would effect my area. Not thrilled it is a weekend, but we will see. Mount Holly did not go into a lot of discussion about it with the AM AFD, as it is 6 days away. Meanwhile, parts of New England remain in an extreme drought.

Similar to last year, the Chukchi Sea presently has extremely low sea ice extent. . This my have some role in our late Fall weather. Another thing to look for regarding clues to the upcoming winter is what phase(s) the MJO mostly travels in during the month of October. As bluewave and Don S. have referenced there appears to be a connection to the following winter's EPO and AO state. From Don S. < In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. > Meanwhile the West Pac warm pool appears to be at near record temps. If you recall there was a study posted last winter https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4 Here is a tidbit from the abstract. Here we show that rapid warming over the tropical oceans during 1981–2018 has warped the MJO life cycle, with its residence time decreasing over the Indian Ocean by 3–4 days, and increasing over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent by 5–6 days. We find that these changes in the MJO life cycle are associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the largest expanse of the warmest ocean temperatures on Earth. The warm pool has been expanding on average by 2.3 × 105 km2 (the size of Washington State) per year during 1900–2018 and at an accelerated average rate of 4 × 105 km2 (the size of California) per year during 1981–2018.

Nina or Nino simply does not matter. As mentioned before the small area of cooler Pac waters is nothing compared to the HUGE global ocean impact specifically the Pacific. And the CFS sucks. Even the monthly CFS is horrible until you get to the 20 th of the present month for the next month's forecast.

I believe there are -NAO cycles or periods when winter blocking in the NAO domain continued for several winters in a row. Lately as you know the -NAO during the heart of winter has been lacking. The real game changer for us and for a large part of the country has been the fast Pac jet causing warmth to dominant and responsible for a lack of phasing storms ( think East Coast , and Miller A s ) and the breaking down of West Coast ridging.

I know it is early, but I go with 2015-2016

Are we not in a new era ? In my opinion winter analogs present little value currently, and there is a tendency for the warmer climate to our South to be nudging North. Saying we are due for an average winter, or there is no history of something is not a wise train of thought. We could go multiple years with a few inches of snow or a fluke blizzard may hit us.

I see no real reason why it has to be better than last year. Could be another very poor winter if you are after cold and snow. Of course, as we have seen the last few years, there could be a fluke event within a period of cold that turns the stats toward , "wow that winter wasn't so bad,we got a lot of snow" , I give you 2016 for example. A one hit wonder, or fluke if you may. It would certainly appear more likely that if you want to venture a forecast going with a false start to winter seems a decent idea at the moment. I would think maybe something along the progression of last year. Whether it is in November or December, remains to be seen. Would have to think earlier versus later. I based this on upon SST forcing to our North, ie. less sea ice, and the still evolving and growing Nina. Whatever favorable elements can happen , would occur early in my opinion. There is talk among some mets, and seasonal modeling, that the coming winter will be back loaded. We thought that would happen last year but it did not , blocking came together too late and brought a cold portion of spring. In March 2018, that was back loaded with the mother of NAO blocks and brought us a memorable late period of snow and cold to our region.

2 weeks of winter in late November to early December then we firmly get implanted on Nina pattern and roast . Accuweather with similar thoughts. As you might have read they feel winter could come in early and then moderation. They are going with typical Nina Climo. Nothing we didnt know already.

BWI: 11/9 IAD: 11/7 DCA: 11/11 RIC: 11/10 TB: 85°

Underperformed here as well with , cough cough ....1. 75 inches. Bring on the sun and lower dews. My area remains a hot spot for enhanced rainfall. Hope that becomes enhanced snowfall in a few months.

The GEFS and CFS both keep the pv along the normal growth trajectory during the next 35 to 45 days . Just saying, because it means very little, but interesting to follow along and see how this turns out a month from now.